Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 3M Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 3M Open

2025 3M Open Fantasy Preview

He is Mr. Inevitable.

Scottie Scheffler has now won ten consecutive tournaments in which he has held the 54-hole lead, adding to his collection by lifting the Claret Jug at the British Open on Sunday.

Final round nerves? Forget about it.

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Scheffler spoke with a sense of almost detached bewilderment at his pre-tournament press conference, reiterating that he’d rather be at home in Texas with his family and that golf doesn’t really rev his engine.

But the scenes as he roared and punched the air in delight on Sunday suggested otherwise.

He’s an all-time great already at the age of 29, and on June 21, 2026 – the date of his thirtieth birthday – Scheffler could complete the career grand slam at the U.S. Open, which is scheduled to be held at Shinnecock Hills.

Scottie keeps brushing off those Tiger comparisons, but they’re getting harder and harder to ignore.

Anyway, Scheffler can go and enjoy some family time this week – his true happy place, while a low-key field heads to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We finished off with Xander (T7), Fitz (3rd) and English (2nd) so it was a pretty solid week on our end.

Just no Scottie as our top pick — which ultimately may have hurt our chances.

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The 2025 3M Open Field

It’s hard not to feel sorry for the 3M Open, an event taking place just a matter of days after most of the best golfers on the planet find themselves approximately the best part of 4,000 miles away across the Atlantic.

Few seem willing to take up the invite, which is why just one member of the OWGR – Maverick McNealy – is set to be tee it up this week.

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That’s not to say there aren’t some eye-catching names in the field this week – Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, and 2022 3M Open champion Tony Finau chief amongst them, but all told just eight of the OWGR top 40 are in town.

Jhonattan Vegas will return to defend the title he won as a 75/1 outsider 12 months ago.

This Week’s Course Preview

He won’t enjoy being reminded of this quote, but when 3M Open tournament director Hollis Cavner was asked about his ambitions for the new event back in 2019, he said he wanted, ‘Birdies and trainwrecks’.

TPC Twin Cities was selected as the ideal venue for said ambition, and yet in six renewals the average winning score has been 18.8 under par, so while birdies haven’t been in short supply, the trainwrecks mercifully have.

Make no mistake, TPC Twin Cities is there for the taking. It’s all in front of the players, with fairly generous fairways and large Bentgrass greens that are easy to hold – Matt Kuchar, finishing in T3 here last year, had a GIR count of 87.5%, with most others comfortably breaching the 70% mark.

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There are some obstacles to overcome, with water in play on 15 holes – although the players will do well to find it, and more than 70 bunkers. But the rough is so generously mown at this stretch that it seems ridiculous to call it rough at all.

There’s only three Par 5s at this 7,430 yard, Par 71 venue, which perhaps helps to keep the scoring down somewhat, but Vegas still recorded 25 birdies and an eagle in his winning tally. 

Curiously, only nine holes averaged under par last year… but some heavily so. The 12th hole, a 593-yard Par 5, is one of the easiest holes on TOUR – 23 eagles were made here 12 months ago, to go with 22 eagles at the eighteenth hole too; a 596-yard Par 5.

There are holes that relent to birdie or better with minimal fuss at TPC Twin Cities, but the players must mind their work at the third and ninth – measuring 501 yards and 502 yards respectively, these are lengthy Par 4s with bite.

Weather Forecast for Blaine, MN

It would be fair to describe the weather in Blaine as a veritable ‘mixed bag’ this week.

As per the early forecast, there’s a chance of rain on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, with the possibility of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Saturday.

And yet, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday are shaping up to be gloriously sunny and warm!

The upshot, maybe, is that the forecasters have no clue what’s going to happen this week and are simply hedging their bets. If you’re heading to TPC Twin Cities, it might be best to pack a rain jacket though, just in case.

NEW YORK WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the 3M Open

There was almost seven years to the day between Jhonattan Vegas’ prior win at the Canadian Open, and his triumph at the 3M Open last year.

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The Venezuelan ranked fourth for SG: Ball Striking and ninth for SG: Putting; put those two factors together, and you’re always going to take some stopping.

T24 after round one, Vegas roared back into the contest with a round of 66 on Friday. But he saved his very best for Saturday, posting a 63 to lead by one heading into the final round.

It was a leaderboard packed with maidens and veterans who were a long time between wins on the PGA TOUR, so a rollercoaster ride was expected.

Vegas traded three bogeys with as many birdies, but it was sure hand at the final hole – reaching the green in two, before two-putting for birdie – that ultimately secured a one-shot margin of victory over Max Greyserman, who had closed out with 63 on Sunday.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 3M Open

Truth time: the 3M Open is one of the hardest DFS golf events on the PGA TOUR calendar.

Will the British Open guys come back to America and play well? We really just don’t know, and historically players have been favored by drafting non-elite guys at the 3M… which is counter to all good sense.

And so it’s a conservative approach we’ll be taking this week…

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: A $5 ticket or two won’t break the bank, and there’s plenty of reward available here if we can get on the right side of variance – not least the $50k top prize.

• GOLF TOUR $60k Birdie: For an even more low budget contest, here’s a $3 entry game. It’s multi entry, if you do want to push the boat out a little, with a possible top payout of $6k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 3M Open

Make no bones about it: the 3M Open is one of the toughest events on the schedule for DFS and betting alike.

The strategy is so counter intuitive it takes some believing, but backing against those that played at the British Open last week – i.e. the best players in the world – has plenty of merit.

At last year’s 3M Open, of the first ten names on the leaderboard, seven hadn’t played at the major – two had missed the cut at Royal Troon, while the tenth played the full tournament.

We can take that further: of the past four champions, only one – Finau in 2022 – had made it to the weekend of the British Open the week prior.

So only backing players that didn’t make the cut at the British Open or didn’t qualify for it all all, as ridiculous as it sounds, has been a sensible ploy at the 3M Open.

There’s a curious trend for quality drivers of the golf ball to thrive at TPC Twin Cities, despite the wide-open spaces. Three of the last four champions here – Vegas, Finau, and Cameron Champ – are long and straight off the tee, while the other winner (Lee Hodges) is an accurate fairway finder.

Take a look at the list of runners up here since 2020, and the same sort of trend applies: there’s total driving merchants (Greyserman, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel), and short but accurate types – J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman, Sungjae Im, and Adam Long to name just a few.

So if we draft quality drivers of the ball that didn’t play at the British Open, or at least missed the cut, we might just be on the right side of the variance of unpredictable events like the 3M Open this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 3M Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 3M Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 64.1, Salary: $9,400)

Playing all four days at the British Open typically hasn’t been all that helpful for the 3M Open that follows, but more opportunities are available for those that miss the cut on the Links.

Taylor Pendrith skipped the weekend at Royal Portrush, but he actually gained strokes on the field on approach through 36 holes and carded a round of 70 on Friday; the same as Harris English, who finished solo second.

So the Canadian is in that rare group of players that played pretty good golf and yet still missed the cut, but that’s good news for his backers ahead of a return to a venue he will remember well.

Pendrith led the 3M Open by two shots at the halfway stage last year, before a remarkable turn of events on Saturday – he shot 73, Jhonattan Vegas shot 63, and that ten-shot turnaround ultimately proved decisive.

The Canadian rallied on Sunday, finishing solo fifth, and so he heads to TPC Twin Cities with thoughts of vengeance in mind.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
• Greens in Regulation – 24th
• Total Birdies – 24th

Top Tier Pick #2

Michael Thorbjornsen (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.2, Salary: $8,500)

Like the rest of us, Michael Thorbjornsen got to watch the British Open from home, but that sets him up nicely this week for a trip to a venue he should love.

He didn’t play anything like his best golf at the ISCO Championship but still finished T14, which followed T4 at the Rocket Classic and T21 at the John Deere Classic before it.

Thorbjornsen has made one trip to TPC Twin Cities and missed the cut, but that really doesn’t tell the whole story. He opened with a round of 66 last year – only five players in the entire field bettered that effort.

He capitulated on Friday, but we’re choosing to look at the positives for a young player who is continuing to improve.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 4th
• Birdie Average – 5th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 60.0, Salary: $8,400)

His record at TPC Twin Cities – 24-10-2-MC-3 – is enviable to say the least, and of the players that have made four or more trips to the venue, only Tony Finau has played TPC Twin Cities better than Emiliano Grillo.

The Argentine simply loves it here, shooting low round after low round, and that is particularly poignant given that it was just a few weeks ago that he nearly added to his PGA TOUR title haul.

Grillo was downed in a playoff at the John Deere Classic by Brian Campbell, capping off a fine run of form. He laboured through the alternate events over the past few weeks, but a return to Blaine will surely light a fire under Grillo once again.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 17th
• SG: Approach – 45th
• SG: Putting – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Kevin Yu (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 67.3, Salary: $8,000)

As we’ve learned, missing the cut at the British Open is not necessarily a barrier to success at the 3M Open, and it’s not as if Kevin Yu’s score of +3 at Royal Portrush was a disaster, either.

He’s been playing some good golf lately, dating back to solo third at the Canadian Open and into T25 at the Travelers Championship, where he acquitted himself well against a world-class Signature Event field.

Most intriguing is the fact that Yu has gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last six starts… factor in his already excellent ball striking, and that could be very useful indeed for a player that has shot a couple of low rounds at TPC Twin Cities already.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
• Birdie Average – 13th
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick

Sam Stevens (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 64.4, Salary: $7,500)

T10 at Twin Cities in 2023, and with a round of 65 fired here last year, Sam Stevens evidently knows his way around this venue.

The long, straight shooter certainly catches the eye given this particular assignment, and if he can bring improved approach play – as he did at the John Deere Classic and Memorial Tournament before it – he can get into the mix this week.

T23 in world-class company at the U.S. Open in June, where he drove the ball and putted to elite levels, Stevens followed up with T21 at the John Deere Classic, where his approach play was in rude health.

Inconsistent yes, but there’s still plenty of potential upside in drafting Stevens this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 41st
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 48th
• Fairway Proximity – 70th

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 3M Open

Austin Eckroat (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 54.0 Salary: $7,100)

As alluded to elsewhere, one of the secrets to success at TPC Twin Cities is to very good off the tee.

Austin Eckroat certainly fits the bill as an accurate swinger who can give it a rip when required, and his two PGA TOUR titles in 2024 set him apart as one of the more prolific types in this field.

Two missed cuts at this venue perhaps explain his throwaway price, but delve a bit deeper and you note that Eckroat finished T16 here in 2021 with three rounds of 67 or better.

Staggering approach play gains per round of +1.61 and +1.65 at the John Deere Classic and Travelers Championship suggest he is in confident mood at the moment, so if he can improve on the greens – which there’s scope for – then Eckroat is certainly an intriguing contender this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 27th
• Total Birdies – 54th
• SG: Approach – 67th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 3M Open

William Mouw (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 54.1, Salary: $7,000)

One minute you’re the cock of the walk, the next a feather duster.

It was barely a fortnight ago that William Mouw was landing the ISCO Championship, and now here he is filed away alongside the also rans – despite the fact that his outstanding driving fits the bill of many TPC Twin Cities success stories before him.

It’s true that his win at the ISCO was somewhat incongruous, given his overall form on the PGA TOUR this season, but the boost in confidence of that win – allied to the fact that he’s a lengthy ball-striker that occasionally peaks on the greens – offers the promise of more from Mouw this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 27th
• Greens in Regulation – 43rd
• Birdie Average – 52nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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