Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 BMW Championship

2025 BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

Oh, Tommy. For much of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, it looked as though Tommy Fleetwood was finally going to get his long-awaited maiden win on the PGA TOUR.

One of the most talented players to come out of Europe in many a year, the Brit – at various times – led the field by as many as five shots at TPC Southwind.

With just three holes to play, Fleetwood was two clear – but on the sixteenth hole, one of the easiest on the entire course, he unravelled. After blasting his approach shot into the grandstand, the world number 15 then missed the green with his third, before just about getting up and down for par.

A bogey at 17, courtesy of another errant approach, opened the door even wider for others. Scottie Scheffler, shorn of the services of regular caddie Ted Scott, who had to fly home to Dallas for personal reasons, was surprisingly unable to take advantage.

Embed from Getty Images

But Justin Rose and J.J. Spaun both did, finishing strong to book their place in a playoff. Fleetwood would have joined them with birdie at 18, but his race was run – he’s now gone 162 PGA TOUR starts without a win, despite racking up 29 top-five finishes and $32 million in prize money.

Rose and Spaun traded par and birdie on the replayed eighteenth, but at the third attempt it was Rose’s clutch putt from 12-feet that won the day – he became just the third player from outside the U.S. aged 45 or over to win on the PGA TOUR in more than 40 years.

It was a fittingly chaotic end to the first FedEx Cup playoff event, with the top 50 in the standings now set for the second: the BMW Championship.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Top pick for us last week was Chris Kirk with his T9 finish. 

Unfortunately for us, no Spaun or Rose on the card last week.  So, we move on to round two of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with hope for a stronger week in Maryland. 

Embed from Getty Images

The 2025 BMW Championship Field

Rory McIlroy will return to action at the BMW, which means that all 50 qualified players will be teeing it up at Caves Valley. That includes Scheffler as well as Spaun and Rose respectively, who are now up to three and four in the standings behind the world number one and the Irishman.

The battle is on for the 30 places that will make up the TOUR Championship. Viktor Hovland (28), Akshay Bhatia (29), and Lucas Glover (30) will be looking to hold on as they come under pressure from the likes of Sam Stevens (31), Ryan Gerard (32), and Daniel Berger (33).

There’s still chances for the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick (41), Xander Schauffele (43), and Jason Day (44) too, although they’ll need a strong week in Maryland to have any hope, as will Rickie Fowler (48).

Embed from Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

The BMW Championship has a nomadic existence, stopping off at different tracks on a rotational basis. It was last held at Caves Valley, in Owings Mills, Maryland, in 2021.

Quite whether course officials have embarked on efforts to toughen the layout since remains to be seen, because back in 2021 Caves Valley simply played too easily for an event of this importance. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau were tied at the top of the leaderboard on -27, and of the 70 players that contested that edition, every single one of them would finish under par for the week.

Embed from Getty Images

Cantlay made 33 birdies and an eagle, while the likes of Bryson, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm embarked on a kind of ‘whack it off the tee, find it, and then figure it out’ strategy that yielded positive results… DeChambeau averaging a driving distance of 345 yards for the week.

Here’s an interesting thing. In 2021, Caves Valley played as a 7,550 yard Par 72. It has always been known as a Par 72. But the PGA TOUR website suggests that it will play as a 7,600 yard Par 70 this week, with the second and twelfth holes playing as Par 4s at 525 yards and 521 yards respectively.

We don’t have absolutely clarity on that; at the time of writing, the PGA TOUR communications team hadn’t responded to our message. Clearly, if Caves Valley plays as an incredibly long Par 70, the longer hitters will have a keen advantage.

So there are known unknowns this week. We do know that Caves Valley features generously sized rolling fairways, plenty of water, and smaller-than-average Bentgrass greens, which can run at a fair pace. However, in 2021, even the guys down in T17 finished on -15, so evidently birdie making is the key this week.

Weather Forecast for Owings Mills, MD

OWINGS MILLS WEATHER

The longer hitters could be advantaged some more by some heavy thunderstorms that could pass through Owings Mills on Wednesday and Thursday. The nature of these things is such that those storms may pass by the golf course, but if they don’t plenty of rain could fall – softening and slowing an already lengthy track.

The forecast picks up from Friday, and in truth it won’t take long for the surfaces to dry and quicken up under the hot sun, with temperatures expected to peak around the 93-degree mark. Wind speeds are down at around the 5-6mph mark, so it’s going to feel extremely hot and punishing for the players this week.

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

Technically, Keegan Bradley is the defending champion this week. He won the BMW Championship at Castle Pines 12 months ago, holding off Adam Scott, Ludvig Aberg, and the fast-finishing Sam Burns to prevail by one shot.

In 2021, the last time Caves Valley welcomed the BMW Championship, it was Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau that would play out a riveting six-hole playoff. Cantlay fired rounds of 63 and three 66s to get to -27, while Bryson threatened to break 60 on the Friday – pars at 17 and 18 proving to be his undoing in a round of 60.

The pair traded four pars and a birdie each on the opening five playoff holes, before Cantlay steamed in with a tremendous birdie on the sixth to clinch victory.

Embed from Getty Images

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 BMW Championship

A field of 50 players doesn’t really lend itself to an edge when it comes to our draft, so its single-entry contests all the way as we look to leverage our advantage.

• GOLF TOUR $300K Drive the Green: The classic $5 game is back, with a total prize pool of $300k – and a top payout of $50k – on offer.

• GOLF TOUR $800k Summer Sand Trap: One of the biggest prizes on offer this week is the $200k jackpot available in this game, with a stack of other big payouts to be won from your $25 stake.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 BMW Championship

With only four competitive rounds in the ledger at Caves Valley, and that confusion over whether the track will play as a Par 70 or Par 72 this week, this isn’t the easiest of events to break down. However, we do have one key stat to focus on – irrespective of the course routing: driving distance.

In 2021, the top-five players in the field for Driving Distance finished second, fourth, sixth, ninth, and 66th (thanks Cameron Champ for messing up the narrative). And the finishing positions of the five shortest hitters in the field? 49th, 52nd, 60th, 63rd, and 66th. And that was out of 70, remember. 

Of course, hitting the ball along way alone isn’t going to be enough to win the BMW Championship, but it sure looks to be a significant advantage to those blessed with huge power. Tracking recent tee-to-green form will also prove helpful, as will success putting on Bentgrass greens.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 BMW Championship   

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 BMW Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Ludvig Aberg (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 66.6, Salary: $10,200)

Ludvig Aberg is playing good, under-the-radar golf right now, so it may just be that he cashes in – in a big way – over these next two weeks.

Caves Valley would seemingly be a good venue for him given his length; the Swede will be one of the few to truly feel comfortable in a test of long driving and long-range approach play.

T9 at the St. Jude, where his ball-striking was excellent and he gained strokes on the field around-the-green and putting, Aberg also played nicely on the Links Swing, with T8 at the Scottish Open followed by T23 at the British Open, where he rallied after a tough opening round of 73.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 10th
• Proximity to Hole – 17th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 27th

Top Tier Pick #2

Cameron Young (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 65.2, Salary: $9,800)

If you’d have told us a matter of weeks ago that we’d be drafting Cameron Young in a top-tier position, we’d have told you to get out of town.

But what a difference a fortnight can make; especially in sports like golf, where confidence can come and go seemingly in a blink of an eye.

Young won the Wyndham Championship, of course, playing solid tee-to-green golf and putting the lights out.

And yet, somehow, it was his performance at the St. Jude last week that was even more impressive. He gained a cumulative +9.94 on the field with his ball-striking, which was the second-best effort of all the 70 players… better even than Scheffler himself.

Cam Young is ending the season like a train… he will love the chance to let it rip off the tee at Caves Valley.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Birdie Average – 17th
• Driving Distance – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sam Burns (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 71.6, Salary: $9,300)

Four over par through six holes on Thursday, Sam Burns’ quest for the St. Jude Championship was over before it even begun. So credit to him for bouncing back, coming home in 31 shots, as well as an excellent 66 on Saturday.

Burns was poor off the tee at TPC Southwind, unusually for him, but was solid on approach and outstanding on the greens, as he has been for months now.

His formline may look sketchy, but you can draw a line through Burns’ Links form and at tight tracks like TPC Southwind. Instead, with extra room at Caves Valley (where he finished solo eighth in 2021), Burns will be well primed to thrive.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 2nd
• Total Birdies – 5th 
• Driving Distance – 53rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Justin Rose (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 60.7, Salary: $8,600)

Cast your mind back to this time seven years ago, when Justin Rose was winning the FedEx Cup. The Brit finished solo second at the Dell Technologies Championship, before losing in a playoff at the BMW Championship to Keegan Bradley. He followed those up with T4 at the TOUR Championship, so Rose has previous in connecting big performances in this FedEx series.

Up to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings following his win at the St. Jude Championship last week, the removal of the starting strokes format at the TOUR Championship means that Rose has a great chance of lifting the FedEx Cup once more… he’ll love to head to East Lake as a back-to-back winner.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 19th
• Putts Per Round – 24th
• SG: Approach – 62nd

Low-Tier Pick

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 68.5, Salary: $7,600)

If you were to try and find a pattern in the careers of Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau, in a bid to identify correlating courses, one of the venues that you might hit upon is Bay Hill, home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. They have both fared nicely there, as has Kurt Kitayama, who bested an elite field to land the API title in 2023.

Perhaps the trip to Caves Valley for this prodigiously long hitter is well timed then, as we find him in excellent form. Having won the 3M Open in July, where he produced some of the best approach play of his career, Kitayama backed up with a T9 turn at the St. Jude last week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• Driving Distance – 8th
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 BMW Championship

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 62.5, Salary: $7,300)

The last time that Caves Valley hosted the BMW Championship, Si-Woo Kim took a while to get going… but boy, did he find his feet over the weekend.Rounds of 65 and 66 over the weekend propelled the Korean up the leaderboard, showcasing his eye for the track after weaker efforts on Thursday and Friday.

That’s all relevant, perhaps, because of the form Si-Woo finds himself in heading to Maryland. Remember earlier when we told you how good Cam Young was with his ball-striking at TPC Southwind? Only one player in the field bettered him in that combination of SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach… Si-Woo Kim, whose +10.45 gain was colossal, and a sign of what could follow if he can improve on the greens.

For someone that has thrived on Bentgrass before, that is certainly food for thought.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 31st
• SG: Off the Tee – 35th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 BMW Championship

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 60.9, Salary: $6,100)

If length is the key at Caves Valley, we can have no doubts about Jhonattan Vegas, who has been amongst the longest hitters on the PGA TOUR for many years. His approach play too seems to be in a groove, with solid showings of late backed by a cumulative +6.49 gain on the field with irons and wedges at the St. Jude, ranking fourth in the field.

The short game is the issue, but Vegas has often shown his best putting work on Bentgrass greens – as he did when winning at the 3M Open last year, so can we cross our fingers for an improvement with the flat stick this week?

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 39th
• SG: Approach – 58th
• Total Birdies – 74th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2025 BMW Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via Instagram