Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

The 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Fantasy Preview

‘Hit it miles off the tee, knock your approaches close and make some putts.’

That was how we’ve summarized the Mexico Open at Vidanta in recent years, and Aldrich Potgieter looked for all the money like he was going to continue that trend on Sunday.

The 20-year-old South African, who performed well at the correlating Torrey Pines just a few weeks ago, asserted his dominance on the field with a show of outrageous power off tee and controlled touch on the greens.

But at his young age, Potgieter is still maturing and figuring out the game, and anyone that watched him blow a big lead at the Nedbank Challenge at the end of 2024 knew that, perhaps, there was still opportunities for others to clinch the win via the back door.

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Step forward Brian Campbell, the unassuming 31-year-old yet to win a senior-level title. One of the shortest hitters in the field, Campbell – who, ironically, was roommates with 2023 Mexico Open champion Jake Knapp back at college – overcame the fact that Vidanta has often been a bomber’s playground, nudging and nurdling his way into a playoff with Potgieter.

After both made par on the first extra hole, the second saw one of the most extraordinary outcomes you will see on a golf course in 2025. Campbell uncharacteristically sliced his drive into the trees, and looked set to go out of bounds. 

But after ricocheting between some tree trunks, his ball somehow shot back out onto the fairway. Campbell made birdie, Potgieter didn’t, and the 31-year-old became a rather unlikely PGA TOUR champion from odds of 275/1.

Will this week’s Cognizant Classic produce a similarly thrilling finale?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we ended up with four of our seven picks in the Top-10 including Joel Dahmen who finished T6. 

Overall, 9 of our 12 picks made the cut with a total earned of over $1,000,000 for the week.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Field

Five members of the OWGR top 30 lead the way at the head of the field this week: Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Billy Horschel, and Sungjae Im.

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Campbell looks set to tee it up, whereas Potgieter decided to withdraw on Monday morning, while Denny McCarthy and Patrick Rodgers – who both experienced final round disappointment of their own at the Genesis – are here.

Austin Eckroat, the defending champion, will look to retain, while Daniel Berger, Eric Cole, and Min Woo Lee – all former runners-up in this event – will be looking to go one better in 2025.

A pair of classy veterans in Kevin Kisner and Luke Donald, the latter the winner here way back in 2006, have been handed special invitations to tee it up.

This Week’s Course Preview

There aren’t many golf courses on the PGA TOUR rotation that are as weather-driven as PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Eckroat enjoyed glorious conditions here 12 months ago, romping home with a score of -17; the lowest winning mark at PGA National in more than two decades.

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And yet, as recently as 2020, Sungjae Im looked like he’d ran a marathon through a monsoon when he outlasted the field to win with a score of -6; one ahead of another noted golfing grappler, Mackenzie Hughes.

PGA National really is one of the few layouts where the weather dictates the nature of our drafted roster, and that’s because when the wind is blowing and the fairways and greens are fast and dry, this is a tricky old golf course.

That challenge is exacerbated by the presence of ponds, lakes, and creeks on as many as 14 holes; this is one of the wateriest, if that’s a word, courses on the PGA TOUR rotation. For some added context, the 2024 edition of this event was one of the easiest in years… and yet of the eight players tied at T4 or better, five had a double bogey or worse on their card.

A former PGA Championship and Ryder Cup host, PGA National is also well bunkered and plays host to the Bear Trap, a unique trio of holes from 15 through 17. They’re supposed to be the hardest on the property, and while the sixteenth isn’t so daunting these days, the fifteenth and seventeenth ranked as the hardest and third hardest respectively in 2024.

They’re both mid-range Par 3s, but deliberately routed to make the most of the Floridan cross-winds, and with tiny greens, you can see why the players have struggled here.

On the flipside, the trio of Par 5s on this Par 70, 7,158 yard track are as easy as it gets; the tenth, at just 530 yards, saw more eagles than bogeys 12 months ago.

Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL

The all-important weather forecast is… something of a mixed bag, actually.

There’s plenty of rain around in Palm Beach early in the week, and whether that is heavy enough to soften and slow the course remains to be seen. Things start to improve on Wednesday with hot sunny spells and a strong wind, so it may be that the layout dries out quickly enough for Thursday’s start.

From there, things don’t look like they will be that bad, according to the early forecast at least. Thursday should be mostly sunny and dry with temperatures of 78 degrees, and that is roughly what it is expected on Friday too… albeit slightly cloudier, and with the wind reaching 10mph.

As for the weekend, Saturday is shaping up the best with sunshine and cloud, temperatures of 75 degrees, and wind speeds of 9mph, before the possibility of rain showers returns on Sunday.

But, in this part of the world, the weather forecast is liable to change by the hour.

PALM BEACH GARDENS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Austin Eckroat clinched the first PGA TOUR title of his career at the 2024 Cognizant Classic in impressive fashion.

He found himself tied for the 54-hole lead with former British Open champion Shane Lowry and David Skinns, with the Irishman installed as the warm favorite with the sportsbooks given his pedigree and fine record at PGA National.

But as his playing partners on Sunday dithered with rounds of 71, Eckroat charged for the finishing line with a show of controlled simplicity: five birdies, 12 pars, and a single bogey enough to see him stretch his lead to three.

Erik Van Rooyen finished with a round of 63, which was the best of the week, but the South African could only settle for a share of second, with Min Woo Lee, behind the irrepressible Eckroat.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

At the 2024 edition, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, and Sepp Straka – all former winners at PGA National – missed the cut, and Eric Cole, a prior runner-up, also had the weekend off. Of the top-five in the betting, only one cracked the top-20 of the leaderboard.

In short, we’re saying that chaos reigns in the Cognizant Classic. And that can be a source of great opportunity…

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: Low risk, high reward… that’s the way to play DFS in this madcap event. So why not try to win a $50k jackpot for a $5 stake?

• GOLF TOUR $60k Birdie: And that same mentality applies to this contest, where we can dive in at $3 a team and attempt to take down the $6k top prize. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

With so much trouble lurking at PGA National, this is a course where the winner will emerge having displayed tremendous control and accuracy across their 72 holes.

Historically, this has been a club down, less than driver course, although that rule was somewhat kicked to the kerb at the 2024 edition, where more players took out their driver than normal. That’s a decision that, like most things at PGA National, will be determined by the strength of the wind at any given time.

When Chris Kirk won here with a score of -14 in 2023, it was the lowest winning mark in 18 years. Then Eckroat came along and smashed that into -17, so the evidence suggests that in fair weather, PGA National is becoming an easier nut to crack.

Given that the forecast is – famous last words – reasonably benign, it may well be the case that the players hit more drivers and score lower once more.

Even so, this is not a layout that you can just hit big bombs with abandon, and on approach the players will be kept very honest by how well guarded the greens are. It’s an old-fashioned layout, in some ways, and so old-world stats like Total Driving and GIR still hold some worth here.

But for us, the key is mid-range iron play, because as well as water and sand around the greens, these Bermuda dancefloors are also heavily contoured in places, so hitting approach shots into the wrong part could leave a lengthy putt or a nasty up and down.

Visually, Detroit Golf Club – home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic – is a decent correlation, while leaderboards also deliver some unexpected links.

Eckroat has won here and at the World Wide Technology Championship, while Van Rooyen – who shot the lowest round at PGA National in 2024 – has also won the WWTC at El Cardonal. That link is strengthened by Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas, who finished T2 in the 2023 WWTC and who have both won at PGA National. 

If you like such random correlations, consider the Sanderson Farms Championship too. Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Sergio Garcia, Mackenzie Hughes, and Luke List have won either the Cognizant or the Sanderson and finished runner-up at the other, while former PGA National winner Keith Mitchell was T3 at the Sanderson back in October.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Daniel Berger (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 75.8, Salary: $9,900)

Daniel Berger is getting closer and closer to that redemptive victory he must so badly want. This is the right time, and now all he needs is the right place at which to do it.

PGA National, you would figure, is as likely a destination as any for Berger to get his hands on some silverware. It’s a layout that suits his skillset, as evidenced by a trio of top-five finishes here.

There’s two main reasons why Berger looks primed to win. He’s found that all-important consistency in his game; rather than spiking one week and then struggling the next, he is delivering big tee-to-green gains regularly.

And he’s putting well too, which confirms that T2 finishes at the RSM Classic and Pheonix Open in recent times are no coincidence. A lover of Bermuda greens, will the switch back to Florida finally get Berger over the line at PGA National?

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
• Scrambling – 9th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 12th

Top Tier Pick #2

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 88.8, Salary: $9,500)

An elite ball-striker in this company, Taylor Pendrith’s career continues to go from strength to strength.

After some players win their maiden PGA TOUR title, they go completely off the boil. But not Pendrith, who since claiming the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May, has gone on to rack up six more top-ten finishes.

Of those, two have come in 2025, and his T9 at Pebble Beach was a supremely impressive showing. He gained +2.39 with his ball-striking on a world-class field, and that alone was evidence that Pendrith is ready to win again.

His driving has come on remarkably this year in terms of accuracy, which will be helpful at PGA National, and his approach play has been deadly. If Pendrith’s flatstick warms up, as well t might upon making the switch to Bermuda greens, we could have another live runner on our hands.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Birdie Average – 35th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sepp Straka (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 79.3, Salary: $9,400)

We begin our handicapping work of each PGA TOUR event as soon as the field is released on a Friday evening.

It didn’t take long for us to come to the conclusion that Sepp Straka was perhaps the most likely winner this week, and so you could color us surprised when five players were priced higher than the Austrian in the salary cap this week.

We simply had to have him on board – hence the top-heavy draft – given that nobody in this field has played better golf than Straka in 2025. Aside from the Genesis (Torrey Pines was always likely to be too long for him), the Austrian has gained huge numbers off the tee and on approach all year long, and that stands him in excellent stead ahead of a return to a layout he loves.

Straka won his maiden PGA TOUR event here in 2022, and has another T5 finish to his name, and given that his current form is as strong as its ever been in his career, surely another strong showing in Florida can be expected.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 11th
• Driving Accuracy – 11th
• SG: Approach – 13th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Jake Knapp (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 73.6, Salary: $7,300)

Even though he would probably have been disappointed only to finish T25 in his title defense at the Mexico Open, the truth is that it was another positive step forward for Jake Knapp.

He’s now gained strokes on the field on approach in each of his last four starts, which includes the quality fields at Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale, and Torrey Pines, and the ability to club down at PGA National will be of no harm to a player that has struggled with consistency with the big stick.

It’s a solid foundation from which Knapp can attack at PGA National, where he was T4 last year a week after winning the Mexico Open, and with his putting also showing signs of improvement in 2025, he looks to be a solid play this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 41st 
• SG: Approach – 44th
• SG: Putting – 54th

Low-Tier Pick

Doug Ghim (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 73.7 Salary: $7,200)

There’s plenty of scope for plodders and plotters to thrive at PGA National, and it was here 12 months ago that Doug Ghim ended a run of three missed cuts with a T16 return.

With so much danger lurking at this property, it feels tailormade for a player like Ghim, who does nothing particularly eye-catching but pounds fairways and greens with regularity.

His short game is weak, that cannot be denied, but just look at his putting display on these very Bermuda greens a year ago: a +1.21 gain on the field is one of Ghim’s best ever shows on the greens on the PGA TOUR.

Historically, there’s been more of a premium on how you get your ball to the greens at this venue, rather than what you do when you get there, and that has us thinking that Ghim can once again be a solid, if unspectacular, selection.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 20th
• Total Driving – 41st
• Total Birdies – 69th

Sleeper Pick for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Chan Kim (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 64.4, Salary: $7,000)

We drafted Chan Kim as a sleeper pick at $6,200 here 12 months ago, and were therefore delighted by his solid T28 finish.

As mentioned elsewhere in this article, there’s no harm in drafting fairways-and-greens types at PGA National, and that’s a skillset that has yielded six top-20 finishes for Kim over the past calendar year.

This week, he heads to Florida off the back of that rarest of beasts: a strong putting week. Quite where it came from only he knows, but Kim gained +2.01 on the field in Mexico… comfortably the best putting display of his PGA TOUR career.

Could the confidence from that see him kick on to new heights this week?

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 13th
• SG: Approach – 34th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 56th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Henrik Norlander (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 63.3, Salary: $6,500)

Because he’s missed the cut in his three visits to PGA National, there’s not a huge groundswell of support for Henrik Norlander this week… hence his $6,500 price point.

But that could be an opportunity, as the Swede is currently striking the ball beautifully. There’s been some mammoth approach play gains, including +1.64 on the field at the RSM Classic and +2.44 at the Mexico Open, where he finished T13.

He’s a proven fairway finder too, so the basic ingredients are in place… which makes his struggles at PGA National somewhat surprising. 

Norlander isn’t the best on the greens, let’s be honest, but his best work seems to come on Bermuda, so maybe we can hope for the penny to drop at PGA National for the first time.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 8th
• SG: Approach – 12th
• Bogey Avoidance – 47th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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