Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 John Deere Classic

2025 John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

The John Deere Classic has been played on the PGA TOUR, albeit under different names and sponsorships, since 1972, switching to its current TPC Deere Run home in the year 2000. Despite being buried in the summer schedule, the John Deere Classic has made headlines over the years – Michelle Wie, the popular U.S. Women’s Open champion, was invited to play in 2005 and 2006.

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And then in 2013, Jordan Spieth landed his maiden PGA TOUR title at the event; becoming the first teenager to win on TOUR in more than 80 years. The John Deere Classic is also the final tournament on American soil that the players can use to qualify for the British Open, so there’s plenty at stake this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Two top-10 finishes in Detroit including Chris Kirk, who finished T2 after a disappointing putt during the 3-man playoff that knocked him out early.  Along with Kirk, we had Matt Fitz who has been trending lately and he clearly showed up in Detroit with his T8 finish.

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The 2025 John Deere Classic Field

Although subject to change, the early declarations suggest we can expect a typically low-key John Deere Classic this week.

Jason Day, Ben Griffin, Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im, and Max Homa are perhaps the standout names in the early declarations, with few OWGR top-20 stars deciding to make the trip ahead of the British and Irish Links Swing.

Lucas Glover, J.T. Poston, and defending champion Davis Thompson are some of the most recent John Deere Classic winners expected to tee up, while the impressive Luke Clanton and Michael Thorbjornsen will be looking to go one better after their T2 finishes at TPC Deere Run in 2024.

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Deere Run is built for fireworks. A par 71 measuring just over 7,200 yards, the course ranks annually among the easiest on TOUR. The fairways are generous, the greens receptive, and the scoring opportunities come in bunches.

There’s plenty of beauty about TPC Deere Run, but beast? Not especially. Davis Thompson won with a score of -28 here 12 months ago, and while that was a scoring record aided by soft conditions at the venue, there have been -26 and -27 marks posted here over the years.

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Playing to around 7,290 yards for its Par71, TPC Deere Run offers up three easy Par 5s – the second hole saw almost as many eagles as bogeys in 2024, while a drivable Par 4 at fourteen is another where not making birdie is a major disappointment.

There’s little in the way of penalty to the players, with wide landing zones and decent-sized Bentgrass greens that run pure. Water is in play on just five holes, while 78 bunkers are a minor inconvenience, as opposed to a hazard in the truest sense of the word.

Only four holes averaged over par here in 2024, and one of those was marginal. Otherwise, mid-range Par 4s at nine, fifteen, and eighteen played the toughest, so there could potentially be a twist in the tale late on Sunday. The average winning score here over the last five years? -21.6. The last cut line above par? You’ll have to go back to 2013.

Key holes:

• Par-5 2nd – Reachable for most and one of the easiest holes on TOUR. We should see a lot of score changes from this hole.

• Par-4 14th – Driveable and dangerous, birdies and bogeys both common on the 14th hole at Deere Run.

• Par-3 16th – A late test that often swings Sunday momentum. This hole has been notorious for heartbreak and triumph over the years!

Expect players to hit tons of greens (average GIR over 73%) and convert birdie looks. SG: Approach and Birdie Average will again be the critical stats.

Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL

The forecast is suggesting a mostly fine week in Silvis, Illinois. There will be hot sunshine around early in the week, which will also greet the players on Thursday – temperatures in the region of 87 degrees are anticipated.

Friday could be the funkiest of the days, with some rain in the forecast and higher winds than on Thursday – up to 25km/h, potentially. That potentially lays the foundation for a draw bias, so keep a close eye on the predictions. As for the weekend, it looks set to be fair with minimal chance of rain – famous last words – and sunny spells taking temperatures back up to the 87 degree mark.

SILVIS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the John Deere Classic

Davis Thompson made hay at a rain-softened TPC Deere Run to post a course record and clinch his maiden PGA TOUR title.Hayden Springer made the early headlines, posting a round of 59 on the Thursday… not the first time that 60 has been broken at TPC Deere Run, it should be noted.

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An opening combination of 63-67 saw Thompson in T4 at the halfway stage, with the likes of Aaron Rai and Harry Hall for company.

His outstanding Saturday 62 propelled Thompson two clear of the field with a round to play, but in low scoring conditions – and with the youngster trying to close out his maiden PGA TOUR win – much chaos was expected on Sunday. But it never came… in fact, only four players could better Thompson’s 64 in the final round – he played the front nine in just 29 strokes, and while idling down the home stretch still had plenty in hand to win by four.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s the 2025 John Deere Classic

It would be nice to head into the Links Swing on the back of a good week in the J.D.C. It won’t be easy, on account of the fact that a rain-softened TPC Deere Run will be at the mercy of pretty much anyone in the field, but we’re certainly going to give it a good try.

• PGA $30k Albatross: Putting contests, which is essentially what the John Deere Classic is, level the playing field between sharp and more casual DFS gamers. So, to redress the balance, tackle a single-entry game like this one: it’s $12 to enter, with a top prize of $3k.

• PGA $25k Caddie: There’s a similar sort of theme here, with $5 single entry paying into a $25k pool that will ship $2.5k to its winner – alongside a host of other handsome payouts. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2025 John Deere Classic

At a golf course offering very little in the way of opposition, the John Deere Classic isn’t the easiest event to profile and handicap. It’s not an out-and-out bombfest, with the players often opting to club down – at such an easy course, there’s simply no reason to be finding the rough, which is viable for the most errant.

But quality approach play, typically in the wedge range, is non-negotiable, although of the eleven players that finished T7 or better in 2024, only two ranked inside the top-ten for SG: Approach. Instead, it was short game all the way, with Thompson ranking first for Scrambling, fourth Around the Green, and fifth Putting – he wasn’t the only protagonist towards the summit of the leaderboard with that kind of profile.

Of course, that was something of an atypical John Deere Classic heat given the rain, and noticeably the three prior winners – Sepp Straka, J.T. Poston, and Lucas Glover – are all reliable fairway finders and positional style golfers.

As for course correlations, some of the most common bonds have been with the Charles Schwab Challenge – Colonial also acts as a barometer of positional golf, and the Sanderson Farms and Wyndham Championships also share a kinship as far as their leaderboards are concerned.

As an aside, here’s a list of players that have produced four or more rounds (since 2021) at TPC Deere Run at a rate of two strokes or better on the day’s scoring average:

• 8 – Denny McCarthy
• 6 – Lucas Glover, Seamus Power
• 5 – Davis Thompson, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, Adam Schenk
• 4 – Adam Svensson, J.J. Spaun, Zach Johnson, Jhonattan Vegas, Andrew Novak

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2025 John Deere Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2025 John Deere Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Sungjae Im (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 61.9, Salary: $10,300)

The head of the market is a difficult puzzle to solve this week, particularly when considered through the lens of the fact that favorites don’t always fare too well here, or in putting shootouts in general. Patrick Cantlay will go off at Scheffler-esque prices with the sportsbooks, and while he is a thoroughbred at his best, the stats would suggest he’s been leaning somewhat heavily on his flatstick of late.

Nobody can say with any great certainty which version of Jordan Spieth will show up, so preference is for Sungjae Im, who has plenty going for him this week. The Korean’s game has been in a funk in 2024, so he took his medicine by heading home and playing in a Korean Tour event – winning it, too, back in April.

That’s levels of quality below this assignment, of course, but winning is a fun habit and it’s notable that Im’s form has improved markedly since – four top-10s in six PGA TOUR starts telling the tale. A noted Colonial performer, Im produced his best approach play numbers for more than a year last time out at the Travelers, so he heads to Illinois buoyed with confidence.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 37th
• Driving Accuracy – 39th
• Proximity to Hole – 56th

Top Tier Pick #2

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 79.1, Salary: $9,600)

It’s hard to ignore Denny McCarthy this week. He’s been trending in the right direction with finishes of T7 at the Travelers, T20 at the Canadian Open, and a T14 at the Rocket Mortgage—strong results in fields comparable to this one. Known as one of the best pure putters on the PGA TOUR, McCarthy thrives in birdie-fests, and that’s exactly what TPC Deere Run tends to produce.

He ranks 4th in SG: Putting this season and is Top 20 in Scoring Average, which makes him an ideal play on a layout where going low is mandatory. With soft greens, short par-4s, and plenty of wedge opportunities, his elite putting and tidy approach game make him a serious contender to notch his first TOUR victory.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th

• Scoring Average – 18th

• Birdie Average – Top 15

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Eric Cole (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 55.8, Salary: $8,500)

Although it would be crude to speculate about a player’s health, Eric Cole has spoken publicly about his battle with Addison’s Disease which, when its symptoms are at their worst, must make playing top-level golf a particular challenge.

Cole was the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2023, so his struggles this year come as something of a surprise – perhaps mitigated by health problems, we really don’t know. However, his performances in his last two starts have suggested a righting of the ship, and at his best Cole is simply a better player than the majority of this field.

A gain of +1.02 on approach at Detroit GC last week was exactly what we would expect from him, alongside green numbers with the flatstick – Cole has now put up meaty gains back-to-back last week and at the Travelers before it.

Only time will tell if that spurs a renaissance, but if it does then Cole will love the wide fairways – and the rest of the assignment – at TPC Deere Run this week.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 68th
• Scrambling – 69th
• SG: Putting – 70th 

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Chris Gotterup (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 60.2, Salary: $9,300)

This guy has quietly built impressive momentum—six of his last nine made cuts have come with finishes of T‑26 or better. He ranks 7th on tour in Greens in Regulation (70.4%) and holds a scoring average near the top 20 in this field. That kind of iron‑play precision is a perfect fit at TPC Deere Run, where birdie opportunities abound on approachable par‑4s and par‑5s. Could be expensive to get both Im and Gotterup on the same roster, but we’ll do our best.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation: 7th in field (≈ 70%)

• Field Scoring Average Rank: ~18th

• SG: OTT when on fairway: top 12

Low-Tier Pick

Mark Hubbard (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.0, Salary: $6,900)

Mark Hubbard enters this week on solid form—he earned a T13 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, gaining strokes in every key area of the game. Accuracy and ball-striking are at a premium at TPC Deere Run’s tree-lined layout, and Hubbard brings both—he’s long off the tee and accurate, with a proven ability to go low on easy fields, as evidenced by his T5 at the CJ Cup and T7 at Myrtle Beach earlier this season.

Key Stats:

• Solid Gains: Gained strokes OTT, on Approach, and around the green in his last event.

• Course Fit: Ranked T5 at CJ Cup and T7 at another easy scoring event this season.

• Course History: T6 at this event in 2023 and T13 at Rocket Mortgage Classic just last week.

Sleeper Pick for the 2025 John Deere Classic

David Skinns (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.9, Salary: $6,900)

If David Skinns had just played a smidgen better on Sunday, he might have banked a top-10 finish in Detroit instead of T17.  That would have been his third on the PGA TOUR since March, and while there’s if’s, but’s and maybe’s there, it does show the upside of backing the Brit at layouts that suit.

Skinns will presumably enjoy the wide-open spaces at TPC Deere Run, which should allow his excellent approach play – strong strokes gained on the field in this department in four of his last five starts – flourish. He’s a streaky putter too, putting up big numbers on the greens in T4 and T7 in Florida and Houston, and so a repeat of that with the flatstick should hopefully take him close to the top page of the leaderboard.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Fairway Proximity – 37th
• Birdie Average – 47th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2025 John Deere Classic

Ben Kohles (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 49.9, Salary: $6,600)

You suspect that Ben Kohles has been waiting for an assignment like TPC Deere Run to come along – ever since he should have won the CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May, in fact. In the interim, the short-hitter has been forced to tackle bombers’ paradises like Quail Hollow, Pinehurst, and Valhalla – not exactly a comfortable fit for him.

But he showed at Detroit GC what he’s capable of in more appealing surroundings, with 82% of fairways found, +0.91 gained on the field on approach, and a T20 finish to boot. An excellent putter, Kohles came close but no cigar in a birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch – could he go one better this time?

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 17th
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 57th
• Approach Putt Performance – 59th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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