Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Valero Texas Open

2025 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

Talk about being made to eat our words!

In our preview of the Houston Open, we had described Min Woo Lee as ‘nobody’s idea of a top tier play’, and wouldn’t you know it the Australian came back to haunt us by clinching his maiden PGA TOUR title in the Lone Star State.

In our defense, Min Woo had recorded just a trio of top five finishes in 55 PGA TOUR starts prior to the first leg of the Texan Swing, so you could forgive our hubris. 

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But at a Memorial Park layout that rewarded his length and short game prowess, Lee was able to assert his dominance on a field that included the fast-finishing Scottie Scheffler.

A nerveless 50-foot putt from the fringe – a Texan wedge, fittingly – on the very last hole showed his class and temperament, and you suspect this won’t be the last time that the Australian lifts a PGA TOUR trophy… maybe now we can consider him a possible top tier play of the future!

Min Woo Lee will take his place in The Masters field next week, but who will join him there courtesy of winning this week’s Texas Open?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

With a little lift from our Tuesday Sleeper Report, we were able to get a few solid finishes despite not having Min Woo Lee in our top picks. 

Names like Gerard (9th) and Salinda (T11) offered up some “inexpensive” bonus DFS points. 

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The Valero Texas Open Field

To tune up for The Masters or not to? That’s the question for the great and the good of the golfing world that have already booked their place at Augusta. 

Three of the world’s top ten players have decided to use the Texas Open as a chance to work on their game: Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood.

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They will be joined by three other players from the OWGR top-20 in Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, and Maverick McNealy, while defending champion Akshay Bhatia and two-time Texas Open winner Corey Conners, who are just outside the 20, will also tee it up.

The likes of Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns will be looking for some kind of breakthrough performance this week to guide them nicely into The Masters, and it’s also worth remembering that the winner in Texas on Sunday will book their spot at Augusta, if they haven’t already qualified.

This Week’s Course Preview

A Texan track at which the winning score has ranged from -13 to -20 in the past three years alone reveals how much of a factor the weather is at the Oaks Course, part of the TPC San Antonio complex.

Designed by golf’s own modern day pantomime villain in Greg Norman, the key feature of the Oaks Course is perhaps some stark elevation changes – a topography not unlike that of Augusta.

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Often times, the uphill holes play with a wind at the players’ tails, while the downhill holes play into the breeze – a confusing element that perhaps explains why course form has been such a key factor here… more on that later.

Measuring around 7,440 yards for its Par 72, the Oaks Course is pretty much the standard PGA TOUR layout these days, with four easy Par 5s and a drivable Par 4 seventeenth that yielded to six eagles in 2024.

A mammoth 241-yard Par 3 hole at thirteen plays as one of the Oaks Course’s toughest stretches, while Par 4s at one and four were the hardest in 2024 with reference to scoring average to par.

A switch from pure Bermuda greens – they’re now overseeded with Poa and Rye – has helped to bring the scoring down over the years, but in truth the Oaks Course wasn’t designed to be difficult.

The fairways are pretty wide, the greens are generous in size, and there’s only 64 bunkers and three water hazards on the entire real estate… in easy going weather conditions, a winning score of -20 is probable, rather than possible.

Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX

There’s something typically Texan about a weather forecast that starts at a glorious 89 degrees on Thursday and which has fallen to 66 degrees just three days later.

But that’s what the players can expect in San Antonio this week, with a mxi of sunshine and cloud and, famous last words, little chance of rain.

Thursday looks set to be the calmest day wind wise, with a breeze of 8mph, before it picks up on Friday (13mph) and settles into low double figures for the weekend.

SAN ANTONIO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open

Akshay Bhatia won his second PGA TOUR title at the Texas Open of 2024, and in fine style too: ranking first for SG: Approach and Around the Green, as well as sixth for SG: Off-the-Tee.

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But he still needed a playoff to dismiss Denny McCarthy, with whom he was locked on -20 at the end of 72 holes.

In the end, it would only take one playoff hole to separate the pair, with Bhatia’s birdie on the replayed Par 5 eighteenth enough for him to seal the deal.

Bhatia had asserted his dominance on the field from the get-go, and by the halfway stage of the tournament he was already five shots clear… and four clear with just a round to play.

The leftie even played well on Sunday, but perhaps hadn’t accounted for a stunning round of 63 from McCarthy, who played the back nine in just 28 shots – birdieing eight of his last nine holes played.

But, in the end, it counted for little as Bhatia showed his steel in the playoff…

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Valero Texas Open

There’s just one week left to pump up your bankroll before heading to The Masters, so the object this week is accumulation; which contests allow us to play for a big jackpot, but walk away with other handsome payouts, as well?

• GOLF TOUR $300K Drive the Green: The bread and butter of many a DK player, this $5 entry game delivers that dual benefit of having a sizable first prize ($50k), while also paying out a minimum of $50 to the top 270 players.

• GOLF TOUR $700K Summer Sand Trap: And it’s the same kinda vibe here, albeit for those with a larger bankroll. It’s multi-entry at $25 a turn, with $200k to the winner and the top 110 players scoring a minimum of $250.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Valero Texas Open

Despite its tough location in the schedule one week ahead of The Masters, the Texas Open is still a unique event in its own right.

Historically, it hasn’t mattered a great deal what you do off the tee here, but classy approach play is non-negotiable – the rollcall of recent winners on the Oaks Course, which includes Bhatia, Corey Conners, J.J. Spaun, and Jordan Spieth is testament to that fact.

It’s perhaps interesting too that this has been the location for Bhatia and Spaun’s sole strokeplay wins on the PGA TOUR, while Conners has also only prevailed here and nowhere else on the PGA TOUR. Charley Hoffman, a course specialist, has won four times at this level at the age of 48… his most recent at TPC San Antonio.

Make of that what you will, but it’s certainly a place for maidens to break through at… although course form has historically been helpful. In fact, take a look at the most recent Texas Open champions: all of them had played the Oaks Course at least once before, while of the nine players that finished T7 or better here last year, six also had a previous top-20 here to their name before.

As you research the list of former champions and runners-up at the Texas Open since it switched to TPC San Antonio in 2010, some course correlations emerge. Augusta, funnily enough, is a good one – it’s elevation changes and long-range approaches offering a handy insight. 

The PLAYERS Championship is another useful marker, with Bhatia, Conners, Spaun, and Spieth all finishing T7 or better at TPC Sawgrass before. The requirement to be quality with iron and wedge in hand, while chipping well when needed, perhaps explains that link.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Corey Conners (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 79.0, Salary: $10,100)

Can you imagine a scenario where a player has won a specific tournament twice in the past five years and still isn’t a chalk pick?

That’s exactly what we’ll get at the Texas Open this week, wih Corey Conners likely to be eschewed in favor of arguably classier names like Aberg, Matsuyama, and Fleetwood.

And yet, when you take a deep dive, you’d argue that the Canadian is every bit a smart play as any of his fellow players with a top-tier price tag this week. Aberg has only gained more than +1.00 strokes on the field on approach since August, while Matsuyama’s ball-striking has also been wayward since the start of February.

Fleetwood, for all his obvious talent, is yet to win on the PGA TOUR in 150 attempts, while Patrick Cantlay makes his Oaks Course debut this week. As for Jordan Spieth… who knows which version will turn up.

Conners, meanwhile, has gone serenely about his progress, racking up three consecutive top ten finishes on the Florida Swing. His trademark ball-striking is back in tow, and perhaps more importantly his short game has been bang on point – not something you can always accuse the Canadian of…

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 21st
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 49th
• SG: Putting – 60th

Top Tier Pick #2

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 77.7, Salary: $9,000)

It’s always interesting when a player doesn’t do what you’re expecting them to…

Long time followers of the PGA TOUR will know that Denny McCarthy has long been one of the best putters on the planet, but his lack of silverware is down largely to the fact that the rest of his game doesn’t always keep up.

But the transformation of his golf in 2025 means that McCarthy now ranks higher than the likes of Matsuyama, Cantlay, Bhatia, and Daniel Berger in the season-long SG: Approach standings… and that’s a huge thing, given his incredible talent on the greens.

The Texas Open at the Oaks Course has delivered two trends over the years – first-time PGA TOUR winners and those with repeat course form have enjoyed success here. McCarthy ticks both boxes, in that he’s a maiden that lost in a playoff here 12 months ago.

Could he go one better in 2025?

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 17th
• SG: Approach – 27th
• Scrambling – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Maverick McNealy (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 71.0, Salary: $8,100)

Maverick McNealy’s not the first player to be written off after a poor Florida Swing, and he won’t be the last.

Yes, he endured a tough time of things in the Sunshine State, but those golf courses are not where he’s likely to thrive. Memorial Park last week, where he returned to ball-striking form, and the Oaks Course this, are much better layouts for him to thrive.

Although he doesn’t have an eye-catching record at this venue, McNealy’s game has reached new heights over the past year – this is the best version of him, so events in the past can be considered with caveats.

It would be much savvier to focus on the outstanding iron and wedge player he’s become, and the fact that he posted consecutive top-tens on the PGA TOUR as recently as February.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 22nd 
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• SG: Putting – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Ryan Gerard (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 77.9, Salary: $7,600)

In little over three months, Ryan Gerard has established himself as a stellar iron and wedge player on the PGA TOUR.

He’s long off the tee and pretty reliable on the greens too, and so Gerard is very much a winner in the making – remember, chipping woes haven’t held back the career of Viktor Hovland, amongst others.

Gerard was electric on approach in Houston last week, ranking second in the field, and if he can replicate that in San Antonio, he can build yet further on his T9 finish on Sunday.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 15th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 16th
• SG: Putting – 28th

Low-Tier Pick

Tom Hoge (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 70.7, Salary: $7,400)

When iron and wedge play is king, Tom Hoge can’t be too far from your thoughts.

Although not a regular visitor to the Oaks Course in recent years, Hoge still has T9 and T12 finishes to his name here – confirmation of the skillset required.

That is backed up by his excellent T3 at the PLAYERS in his last start, where Hoge gained an astronomical +2.66 on approach against a world-class field.

There’s no great requirement for length off the tee at the Oaks Course, while the large greens would suggest that Hoge’s two weaknesses – a lack of driving power and a lack of touch around the greens – will be less of a burden. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 14th
• Total Birdies – 23rd 
• Putts per Round – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open

Eric Cole (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 62.4, Salary: $7,200)

Given his class, it was only a matter of time before Eric Cole recaptured his best form.

T12 at the Valspar Championship, and T15 in Houston last week, would suggest he’s on his way to accomplishing exactly that – particularly given the latter, where Cole gained strokes on the field on approach, around the green and when putting.

He’s never going to be a world class driver of the golf ball, that seems certain, but such deficiency has rarely been a problem at the Oaks Course, where the wide-open spaces offer encouragement to even the wildest of big stick merchants.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 12th
• Putts per Round – 20th
• Fairway Proximity – 30th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open

Sam Ryder (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 66.0, Salary: $7,200)

This is going to read like a bonkers sentence without context, but there aren’t many players in world golf putting as reliable right now as Sam Ryder.

If you don’t believe us, take a look at his DataGolf page, where you will see that he’s put up chunky gains on the greens for much of 2025.

Getting the rest of his game in order… well, that’s the issue. But T14 at the correlating PLAYERS, before showcasing an improvement in his irons and wedges at the Valspar Champions, provides hope.

As we’ve alluded to elsewhere in this article, course form at TPC San Antonio counts for plenty – T3 here in 2023, Ryder can call upon happy memories on the Oaks Course.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 3rd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 18th
• Proximity to Hole – 40th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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