Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 WM Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open

The 2025 WM Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

Rory McIlroy made light work of heavy conditions over the weekend to win the AT&T Pebble Beach.

The Irishman described the Pebble Beach Links as a ‘cathedral’ of golf, but it was the rest of the field that was on a wing and a prayer when he separated himself from the chasing pack on Sunday, making three birdies and an eagle on the opening six holes of the back nine.

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McIlroy felt disillusioned with his swing towards the end of 2024, and so he set to work over the festive period. While others were putting their feet up and enjoying the celebrations – or slicing their hand open while making ravioli, aka Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy spent days at a time working on swing changes in front of a blank screen.

As he corked 320+ yard drive after drive down the middle of the fairway at Pebble Beach, on a layout that is fraught with danger off the tee, it was evidently time well spent. This was McIlroy’s 27th PGA TOUR title, and in the circumstances perhaps one of his most satisfying.

Next, it’s off to one of the oldest tournaments on the PGA TOUR rotation: the Phoenix Open.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s shining star was our top Tuesday Sleeper Report pick, Taylor Pendrith.  The Canadian finished the week T9 with an impressive 67-69 over the weekend with a total of 22 birdies on the week.

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WM Phoenix Open Field

Even though it’s not a Signature Event, the Phoenix Open has a habit of attracting a strong field. And that’s no different in 2025, with two former champions here – Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama – leading the way.

They’re joined by the world number seven, Wyndham Clark, and six other members of the world’s top 20, including Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, and Sepp Straka, who’s already won in the desert this season at the American Express.

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Nick Taylor, the defending champion, returns in a bid to double up, while the likes of Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and Billy Horschel will be eyeing up the possibility of another win on the PGA TOUR. 

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Scottsdale is arguably Tom Weiskopf’s masterwork: a firm but fair challenge that offers the most reward to the smoothest of tee-to-green operators.

Measuring 7,266 yards for its Par 71, TPC Scottsdale is sat up at around 1,500ft of elevation in the Arizona desert. The players’ balls travel farther as a result, although the different is not as marked as it is at, say, TPC Summerlin for the Shriners.

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It features some pretty average fairway widths for the PGA TOUR, with water in play on six holes. The overseeded Bermuda greens are on the large side too, but note that these feature tiers and shelves; so there’s still a premium to be had in hitting the right portion of the green.

You might have heard about the, shall we say, rambunctious atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale. This most manifests itself on the closing stretch of holes. The 15th is an easy Par 5 that ranked as the third easiest hole on the course in 2024; will the players lay up or take on the green in two, despite the huge pond awaiting to the left of the green?

The sixteenth is arguably one of the most famous holes in golf. It’s a generic Par 3, really, but the fact that there’s 20,000 patrons in the wraparound stadium adds a whole new element – beer showers are not uncommon.

Seventeen is an easy Par 4 measuring 333 yards. Again, will the players lay up or attempt to land their drive on the green? Water awaits the inaccurate.

The final hole requires the players to go into full send mode to clear the large lake in front of them. Averaging a shade over par in 2024, this is not the easiest place to close out a round.

All told, nine holes averaged under par last year and nine over – see, we told you it was firm but fair. The three Par 5s are the easiest stretches, while the 215-yard, Par 3 seventh saw 78 scores of bogey or worse last year and just 32 birdies.

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ

In stark contrast to last year’s renewal, we’re expecting a warm, sunny, and dry week in the desert.

As per the early forecast, we’re expecting sunshine and cloudy spells, with the chance of rain – famous last words – no higher than 10% on all four days. Temperatures will start out at around 80 degrees on Thursday, before dropping off to around 73 by Sunday.

As for the wind, expect four days of ‘dome golf’, with the breeze not exceeding 6mph at any point.

SCOTTSDALE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from WM Phoenix Open

After 54 holes at last year’s Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler – seeking the three-peat at TPC Scottsdale – was just two shots behind Nick Taylor and Sahith Theegala.

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And four birdies in a row from the second hole through to the fifth saw Scheffler move to an odds-on position with the sportsbooks.

But then he seemed to get the putting yips, missing three putts in a row from inside six feet as his title charge stalled.

With Scheffler playing his last seven holes in level par, the door was ajar – and Taylor, the 2023 runner up, and Charley Hoffman were the two to take advantage.

They finished the tournament locked on -21, before both made birdie on the first playoff hole. However, the second time they replayed the 18th, it was Taylor who forged ahead with another birdie to clinch victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s WM Phoenix Open

History tells us there’s a certain knack to your draft for the Phoenix Open; we’ve detailed some of those techniques in this preview.

As such, we can only hope that history repeats itself – if it does, we should be able to go well in this pair of contests.

• GOLF TOUR $1M People’s Open Special: A unique contest type just for the Phoenix Open, here our $25 entry fee goes into the $1 million pot – from which the winner gets a handsome $200k cut. As you would imagine, there’s plenty of handy consolation prizes too.
• PGA $250k Drive the Green: If you’re operating on a tighter budget, this $5 contest might be more up your street… not least because there’s a $50k bounty to be won by the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for WM Phoenix Open

Only the classiest of operators need apply at the Phoenix Open.

Of the last ten editions of this event, eight have been won by major champions. Of the others, Rickie Fowler is a smooth swinger that has underachieved relative to his ability, while Nick Taylor is a five-time winner on the PGA TOUR… and can therefore be described as an elite operator.

The reason that the cream rises to the top is the nature of TPC Scottsdale, which examines the accuracy of the players’ long game while testing out their chipping and scrambling, too. Most of the recent protagonists here have that tee-to-green expertise.

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So that is the simplicity of drafting a lineup for the Pheonix Open: ball-striking form and long-standing tee-to-green quality are the two main focal points.

We like the notion of course form this week as well. Scheffler, Matsuyama, and Koepka have all won here twice since 2017 alone, while the likes of Taylor, Fowler, and Webb Simpson have won and finished second in this event since 2016. There’s a case for the repeat offenders at TPC Scottsdale.

Otherwise, correlations can be drawn with layouts that provide all-round tests to high-grade fields: Augusta, Riviera, and Bay Hill just three that spring to mind.

Consider the American Express in your research too, if for no other reasons than it’s played in the desert and has that recency factor in the schedule, so form at the 2025 edition is still very much relevant.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 3/1, FPPG: 124.8, Salary: $12,000)

Well, you probably knew this was coming.

There are few better matches in world golf than Scottie Scheffler and TPC Scottsdale, where his tee-to-green supremacy is able to separate him from the rest of the field.

A young upstart here in 2021, when he finished T7, Scheffler won the Phoenix Open back-to-back in 2022 and 2023, and as mentioned already in this article, he probably ought to have lifted the trophy last year, too.

Were there any concerns about his form at Pebble Beach? Not really. He drove the ball well enough, gained +1.67 on an elite field on approach, and putted better as the tournament went on, gaining +1.39 on the field on Sunday.

Assuming there’s no reaction from his repaired hand, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a Scheffler top five – at the very least – at his favorite layout this week.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• SG: Approach – 1st
• Birdie Average – 14th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tom Kim (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 87.4, Salary: $9,600)

Whenever you see Tom Kim play in a golf event with a raucous atmosphere – think the Presidents Cup or even the TGL a few weeks ago, he turns into a different beast entirely.

If he can control his emotions and keep the adrenaline in check, Kim could become something of a crowd favorite at TPC Scottsdale with his big-time celebrations after holing a putt… and that could prove very useful in this rarefied air.

The Korean, a sublime operator from tee-to-green, tried out a new putter at Pebble Beach, and a +1.00 putting gain on the stellar field there suggests he’s found a little something extra on the greens.

But for a bogey at the Par 5 sixth hole on Sunday, Kim was hot on McIlroy’s heels, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him contend this week on a track where, after an opening 74 last year, he closed out 66-67-67… a better 54-hole score than even the winner, Nick Taylor.

Key Stats (2024):

• SG: Approach – 49th
• Birdie Average – 51st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 52nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Billy Horschel (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.9, Salary: $7,600)

With gains of just over +1.00 on the field at Pebble Beach on approach and putting, Billy Horschel was able to showcase his class in quality company once more.

Although he’s never going to win awards off the tee, Horschel is certainly capable in the second phase of golf holes – chunky gains on approach, with green numbers in his last three outings, will likely be matched by a reliable short game on and around the greens.

His putting display at Pebble Beach was his best since winning the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour in October, so all is trending in the right direction as Billy-Ho returns to a track he has performed well at in the past.

He has two top-tens and a T11 on his ledger, and even in finishing down the field in T41 last year, Horschel posted rounds of 66 and 67. He’s capable of winning this week, and no mistake.

Key Stats (2024):

• Scoring Average (Adjusted) – 4th
• SG: Putting – 21st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 67th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Doug Ghim (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 73.5, Salary: $7,200)

There’s a lot to be said for keeping your ball on a tight leash at TPC Scottsdale.

Doug Ghim can’t putt for toffee, but at least you can expect him to be solid from tee-to-green – statistically, he’s a proven horse in that department.

Interestingly, Ghim actually gained strokes on the field putting at the Phoenix Open last year, where he finished T12 after opening with a superb round of 65 – again, highlighting the edge that classy tee-to-green sorts have at TPC Scottsdale.

Ghim did what Ghim always seems to do at Pebble Beach: pounded fairways and greens in regulation, but missed putts and finished down the field in 68th.

But like we say, he’ll get more value for his quality ball-striking at TPC Scottsdale than most other venues.

Key Stats (2024):

• Proximity to Hole – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th
• Scoring Average – 24th

Low-Tier Pick

Charley Hoffman (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 76.9, Salary: $7,200)

We’ve written in our Phoenix Open reports about the importance of prior course history at TPC Scottsdale, so step forward Charley Hoffman.

He has twice finished in second place at the venue – most recently last year, when Hoffman was downed only by an outstanding performance from Nick Taylor. Yes, TPC Scottsdale was softened by rain in 2024, but Hoffman’s score of -21 would have been good enough to win the prior ten editions of the Phoenix Open!

Just as pertinently, Hoffman is playing some good stuff right now. T5 at the correlating American Express just a few weeks ago, he also gained strokes on the field in every tee-to-green department at Torrey Pines.

Key Stats (2024):

• Birdie Average – 17th
• Proximity to Hole – 43rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 62nd

Sleeper Pick for the WM Phoenix Open

Nicolai Hojgaard (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.9, Salary: $7,000)

Although it’s his brother, Rasmus, that generally gets the most column inches, you wonder if Nicolai is the Hojgaard of most relevance this week.

At the age of 23, he’s won three times on the DP World Tour already – including their Tour Championship in 2023, where he saw off the likes of Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, and Tommy Fleetwood.

He shot a round of 67 at Augusta on his way to T16 this year, and finished solo seventh at the Olympics, so this is an impressive young player.

Hojgaard finished solo second at the Farmers last year, and that – along with his strong showing at The Masters – suggests he is well placed to thrive at classical layouts that reward strong ball striking.

Key Stats (2024):

• Fairway Proximity – 12th
• Driving Distance – 26th
• SG: Approach – 30th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WM Phoenix Open

Jake Knapp (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 71.2, Salary: $6,800)

Jake Knapp set up home in Scottsdale – literally a stone’s throw from our host venue this week – in November 2023, and at the Phoenix Open last year he debuted at the course with a solid T28 finish.

Since then, he’s won the Mexico Open and banked top-tens in other PGA TOUR events, so perhaps Knapp heads home this year as a better, more rounded player than he was 12 months ago.

It’s been fallow times lately, mind you, but Knapp appeared to be finding his old self at Pebble Beach. He finished T33 but opened up with a round of 65, and ultimately gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green – propelled by +0.44 on approach (Rory was at +0.66). 

Could Knapp be rounding into some form ahead of his homecoming?

Key Stats (2024):

• Driving Distance – 24th
• Fairway Proximity – 36th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 71st 

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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