Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – AT&T Byron Nelson
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the AT&T Byron Nelson
2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview
For the second time this season, we were left completely befuddled by the identity of the PGA TOUR event winner last week.
Right up there with Adam Long’s triumph at the Desert Classic comes Max Homa’s victory at the Wells Fargo Championship.
The 28-year-old has a pair of Web.com Tour wins to his name, but with just one top-10 on the PGA TOUR this season – and in the midst of a run of form reading 42-52-MC – Homa didn’t exactly leap out as a likely winner at Quail Hollow.
But a second round of 63 got him right into contention, and he never looked back: a Saturday 70 get him in the hunt, and while Jason Dufner and Joel Dahmen fluffed their lines on Sunday, Homa strung together a five-birdie 67 to win with relative comfort by three shots on the field.
Jason Dufner plays his shot from the eighth tee during the second…
Jason Dufner plays his shot from the eighth tee during the second round of the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club on May 03, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
And if you backed the 300/1 winner with your sportsbook….congratulations!
The PGA TOUR calendar carries on its relentless march and we find ourselves just a week shy of the second major of the year, the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black.
But first, we have business to take care of at the AT&T Byron Nelson this week at Trinity Forest GC in Dallas, Texas.
Last Event’s Fantasy Results
Last week at Quail Hollow was all about Max Homa, a very unpopular pick. If you went Max, you may have been sitting pretty in DFS.
Our Top Pick was Rory, who ended up finishing the week at T8.
We were caught with the a bad combination of the WD and MC bug at Quail Hollow; so now we move on to the final stop before the year’s 2nd major.
Max Homa tees off on the 6th during Round Two of the Zurich Classic…
Max Homa tees off on the 6th during Round Two of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on April 25, 2014 in Avondale, Louisiana. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson Field
A week shy of the second major of the year, it’s no surprise to learn that many of the world’s best have decided to hone their craft behind closed doors ahead of the trip to Bethpage Black.
Even so, we have plenty of interest in the field with US Open and PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka headlining over former Masters champ Patrick Reed.
Jordan Spieth enjoyed something of a renaissance at Augusta with a T21 finish, and he will be looking for a continuation of that form in his home state this week.
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays his shot from the third tee…
Jordan Spieth of the United States plays his shot from the third tee during the second round of the BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club on September 7, 2018 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The reigning champion, Aaron Wise, will look to defend his title in a field which contains eight of the FedEx Cup top 30, with the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman and Brandt Snedeker catching the eye.
Exemptions have been given to European Tour stars Thorbjorn Olesen and Thomas Pieters, and they will be joined by fellow continental colleague Lucas Bjerregaard.
Of the homegrown youngsters, it is Scottie Scheffler who could represent the Web.com Tour in fine style.
This Week’s Course Preview
Of all the courses on the PGA TOUR, Trinity Forest GC has perhaps the most ironic of names.
Despite its woodland setting, there aren’t actually any trees out on the course; giving the layout a rolling heathland, almost Links-esque look and feel with pot bunkers and tangly fescue rough also the order of the day.
But this isn’t some traditional Scottish pastiche, with wide open fairways and large receptive greens that are made for some low scoring: Wise won in -23 a year ago, after all.
Hideki Matsuyama of Japan hits his approach shot from the ninth…
Hideki Matsuyama of Japan hits his approach shot from the ninth fairway during the second round of the 50th anniversary AT&T Byron Nelson on May 18, 2018 at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, TX. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The designers, Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore, have confirmed that they had the classic British Links courses in mind when designing Trinity Forest, which didn’t open its doors until 2016. That tree-less layout means exposure to the Texan wind, and that, ultimately, will determine how low the scoring goes this week.
Playing at 7,380 yards for its Par 71 – that means just three Par 5s for the players to take advantage of, the fairways are lined with Zoysia grass, which is unusual in this part of the world, while the greens are of the traditionally Texan Bermuda grass.
Six of the eleven Par 4s measure in at below 450 yards, while one of the Par 3s is a cinch at little over 140 yards.
But there are some tough holes too, including the 235-yard Par 3 second and the Par 4 ninth, where all but the longest hitters will face an approach of around 200 yards into an undulating green.
Weather Forecast for Dallas, TX
It’s typical: you get great weather in the build-up to the first tee, and then things take a turn for the worse on Thursday.
There’s sunshine and warm temperatures expected early in the week, but all that changes on Wednesday when rain sweeps in.
That brings the temperatures down to the early twenties, with scattered thunderstorms predicted for all four days of the action.
Conditions could be nice and soft for the players then, and that potential for low scoring is backed by fairly benign wins too, with speeds of 8-12mph predicted.
Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Byron Nelson
Heading into the final round of the 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson, rookie Aaron Wise and three-time PGA TOUR winner Marc Leishman were locked on –17.
At that point, most would be putting their chips on the Australian to add a fourth title to his collection, but it was the youthful flair of Wise that ultimately proved to be the difference.
View this post on Instagram
They went tit-for-tat on the front nine, with Wise stringing together five birdies in six holes with Leishman heading to the turn -3 on the day, including an eagle at the driveable Par 4 fifth.
Did Leishman’s experience tell on the back nine? Not a bit of it: he cracked with bogeys on ten and fifteen, whereas Wise – at just 21 – showed maturity beyond his years in playing risk-free golf and carding a bogey-free back nine to take the spoils by three shots at -23.
Rounding out the top-five were the tied T3 trio of Branden Grace, JJ Spaun and Keith Mitchell.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week
It’s not an easy week by any means at the AT&T Byron Nelson, but that in itself offers opportunities for gamers from a field of players where few obvious winners stand out. These are conditions where our research and ‘going the extra mile’ can really make a difference!
- PGA $500K Drive the Green: This contest is one where we can accumulate some handy profits for our bankroll ahead of the PGA next week. The top 13,500 teams will at least double their owners’ stake of $5, with $100k going to the winner.
- PGA $30k Albatross: We always like to enter single entry contests for the more challenging game weeks in order to maximize our research against our fellow players. You can also win a very handy $3k too.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Last year provided our first look at Trinity Forest, and the overall feeling was that this is a course where birdie opportunities come thick and fast.
Whether they have toughened conditions in the past 12 months remains to be seen, but with rain in the forecast and relatively low winds, a winning mark of -20 or better could be in the offing once more.
Wise, Leishman, Grace, Mitchell….none of those strong finishers last year could be described as shrinking violets off the tee, and with potentially wet fairways once again we would expect longer hitters to prosper.
The fairways are pretty tough to miss – Wise found a staggering 89.29% of them 12 months ago, and with large receptive greens this may come down to which bomber can hit their approaches closest or have a golden run with the flat stick.
Occasionally with Zoysa-based tournaments we might favor South Africans or those who have played a lot on the European Tour, but eight of the first eleven finishers were American a year ago and so perhaps we can put that theory to bed.
We’re looking for players who are comfortable shooting low numbers in Links-esque conditions that are fairly long off the tee….that narrows the field rather nicely for us!
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson
Top Tier Pick #1:
Henrik Stenson (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 53.3, GPFP: 45.80 Salary: $10,300)
It’s a strange old event for gamers to fathom out.
At the head of the market we have Brooks Koepka; a phenomenal player, yes, but one with just a single non-major title to his name on US soil.
We have Hideki Matsuyama, who appears on the brink of challenging for silverware without actually doing it, and Jordan Spieth, who is yet to record a top-20 finish in 2019.
And do we want to make our top tier pick Aaron Wise, a young man still learning his craft and who will defend a title for the first time this week?
Neither Patrick Reed nor Marc Leishman particularly appeal at their prices, and so we are left with a tilt on Henrik Stenson as our main play.
The Swede will surely enjoy Trinity Forest, a noted Links lover who has a win and a trio of other top-three finishes to his name in the British Open.
Stenson is also comfortable on Bermuda, having won the Wyndham Championship in 2017. Studying in South Carolina, and now residing in Florida, means that he is exposed to plenty of Bermuda greens in practice.
His form has been improving of late, and aside from a sluggish opening round of 74 his 67-70-70 follow-up showcase a turning of the corner which was evident in T17 at the Arnold Palmer, T24 at the Valspar and a cursory run to the last 16 of the WGC-Dell Match Play.
Stenson is knocking on the door, and having ranked third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last time out at Quail Hollow that big breakthrough could come this week in Dallas.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Total Driving – 25th
- SG: Total – 58th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Keith Mitchell (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 67.3, GPFP: 45.80 Salary: $9,100)
Ranking 23rd on Tour for Total Birdies and 39th for Birdie Average, we know that Mitchell can hang with the lowest of scorers.
He also ranked first for Driving Distance at Quail Hollow last week, and while that in itself is not a stat to get overly excited about, Mitchell should have an advantage over many in the field if Trinity Forest plays wet and soft this week.
His top-ten finish in the Wells Fargo was his third in seven starts, a run which also included his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Honda Classic, and the nature of his play suggests that won’t be the only time the world number 56 enters the winner’s circle.
A long-hitting Bermuda specialist who’s in form and who enjoys low scoring contests, Mitchell is hard to overlook in Dallas.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
- Total Birdies – 23rd
- SG: Approach – 38th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Russell Knox (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 53.86 Salary: $8,000)
Much of the Scot’s best work comes on Links-style courses, and so he’ll take to the tee at Trinity Forest feeling at home.
His T16 here a year ago was a sighter for what the two-time PGA TOUR winner could achieve at this layout, and a look at his resumé reveals a triumph at the Irish Open and second places at the French Open and at Harbour Town Links, home of the RBC Heritage.
Ironically, Knox missed the cut at the latter in his last start, but that was an anomaly in a run of good form that includes five top-25s in thirteen outings. He’ll be looking to bank a top-10 at the very least in conditions that should suit.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 3rd
- Total Driving – 25th
- Scrambling – 44th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Trey Mullinax (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 58.5, GPFP: 82.46 Salary: $7,600)
There are some players who are able to bely a run of bad form and just come up with the goods out of the blue, and Trey Mullinax appears to be one such example.
This season alone he’s banked T15 and T16 finishes seemingly out of nowhere at the Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage, and oddly for a player we might categorize as a bombs away type some of his best work has come at stretches such as Harbour Town and Pebble Beach, where a bit of nuance is welcome.
Mullinax’s best ever performance on the PGA TOUR came in Texas, and a player who is at home in low scoring conditions (25th for Total Birdies) will come on the radar at Trinity Forest.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 19th
- SG: Putting – 48th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 51st
Low-Tier Pick:
Adam Schenk (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 64.6, GPFP: 51.70 Salary: $7,000)
Only two men have made more birdies on the PGA TOUR this season than Schenk, and yet if you asked him he would probably tell you he has been disappointed with his campaign.
A decent start at the Safeway Open and the Sanderson Farms Championship gave way to months of indifference, but just lately there have been signs that he is back to his best: T7 at the Texas Open followed by T13 at last week’s Wells Fargo.
Long off the tee and generally excellent on approach, Schenk has the tools to take easy courses like Trinity Forest apart. He’ll be looking to add a third top-10 this season – at the least – to his collection this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 16th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 53rd
- Total Driving – 68th
Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Matt Jones (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 60.6,GPFP: 77.00 Salary: $7,500)
You sense that the Australian will enjoy this assignment at Trinity Forest, particularly given the form he has shown of late.
There’s been eight consecutive cuts made, with T13 finishes at both Torrey Pines and Innisbrook confirming the healthy state in which his game stands.
But it’s on easier courses where Jones can thrive, and his rank of 47th for Total Birdies confirms he’s at his best when low scores are in the offing.
A former winner in the Lone Star State, Jones has also won his some Australian Open, and both of those angles are worthy of consideration in this exposed test of ball striking.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 25th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 47th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 55th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Michael Thompson (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 63.2, GPFP: 61.20 Salary: $7,200)
It’s always a surprise when the DFS sites so routinely neglect players like Thompson.
He’s made nine cuts from thirteen starts, with seven top-25s and four of those ending in a top 10 finish.
The 34-year-old recorded one of those top-tens in his penultimate start at the RBC Heritage, and we’re happy enough to overlook the missed cut at the Wells Fargo given how deceptively long Quail Hollow plays.
Thompson is a PGA TOUR and Web.com Tour winner, and in a field with a shortage of those he holds plenty of appeal.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 17th
- Birdie Average – 46th
- SG: Approach – 66th
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The AT&T Byron Nelson with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
Can LIV Golf Survive this Latest Bad News?
Did the PGA TOUR Just Make a Huge Mistake?
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
Did the PGA TOUR Just Make a Huge Mistake?
Can LIV Golf Survive this Latest Bad News?
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
