Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – BMW Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the BMW Championship
2019 BMW Championship Fantasy Preview
The secret to Patrick Reed winning the Northern Trust last week? Not playing golf.
Yes, that might sound counter-intuitive, but the artist formerly known as Captain America claimed after wrapping up his one-shot victory over Abraham Ancer that a three-month break from the Tour – including a ten-day stretch where he packed away his clubs – was vital in reenergizing his career.
Since the spring, his clubhead speed has been up, his approach game has improved and his putting has ranged from the competent to the red hot – all Reed needed was to put the whole package together at one time.
And that he did at Liberty National, where he drove the ball like a man possessed, hit plenty of greens and when he didn’t showcased why his chipping game is the envy of most.
Reed’s renaissance could not have come at a better time, although with just two FedExCup events left on the schedule he may just rue not making his move sooner.
Next up is the BMW Championship, where only the top 25 left in the FedEx standings will make it to the TOUR Championship next week. Our host this week, Medinah, will have contrasting emotions for some in the field who will remember the manic 2012 Ryder Cup rather well.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Tough seeing our horse pick Rory drop to T6, but nice to see Reed grab a W. Reed was a pick on our Tuesday Sleeper report last week.
Here’s what we had to say about Patrick going into THE NORTHERN TRUST:
Noteworthy recently with his much-improved ball striking, Reed’s irons went a touch cold at Sedgefield to be replaced by a red hot putter.
The former Masters champ ranked fifth for SG: Putting at the Wyndham Championship, backed by a ridiculous fourth round effort in which he gained +4.67 on the field.
Reed actually won this event when it was known as the Barclays back in 2016, and another victory at the WGC-Cadillac suggests a fondness for east coast golf.
Now if he can just combine his approach play with that streaky flat stick….’
The 2019 BMW Championship Field
The 125 that started the FedExCup finale has been trimmed to 75 this week, with the likes of Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Henrik Stenson missing out on the last two events. Wyndham Clark (68), Emiliano Grillo (69) and Joaquin Niemann (70) survived by the skin of their teeth!
Otherwise, it’s a high-class field with Koepka, McIlroy, Reed, Rahm and Cantlay all looking to boost their position towards the head of the FedExCup standings. The likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose will be happy with a confidence-boosting win to end their campaigns too.
Jordan Spieth showed flickers of his best form last week – he’s another with plenty of motivation right now, while Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott head what is a multi-talented supporting cast.
This Week’s Course Preview
Say the word ‘Medinah’ and it brings many a golf fan out in a cold sweat.
Not the Europeans, who will remember the ‘Miracle of Medinah’ very nicely, but certainly anyone who saw Team America wilt under the pressure on Sunday can be forgiven for not wanting to return to the venue in a hurry.
But it’s nice to have Medinah back on the rotation if, for nothing else, it’s a fantastic test of all-round golf.
Punishingly long – it can play anything from 7,400 to 7,650 yards at its extremities, this layout was originally built back in 1930 but has been tweaked ever since to ensure it remains ‘contemporary’ in its challenge to the players.
As we know, some architects go for length as their only defense against the modern golf swing, but Medinah has another weapon up its sleeve: or 4,700 of them to be exact. Big, glorious trees of varying species that provide a canopy lining the fairways.
And so the first key to tackling is long, straight driving: you need to be long because this will turn into a real grind if you’re not, and accurate because the rough is said to have been grown ice and lush and also the foliage from the trees can block out misplaced drives from having a line in to the Bentgrass greens.
Water is not so much a problem as it’s only in play on five holes, so actually it may come down to hits the ball best off the tee this week that gives themselves a monumental advantage on the field.
Weather Forecast for Medinah, IL
Aside from the odd thundery downpour, the weather appears to be set fair for the BMW Championship.
There could be a bit of rain around on Wednesday, but Thursday looks set to be sunny with top temperatures of 77°F.
There’s more of the same on Friday and Saturday with the mercury tickling 84°F, before Sunday is shaping up to be the best of the lot: warm sunshine pushing temperatures to 89°F.
There will be a fairly constant breeze of between 9-12mph, but remember this will be mitigated somewhat by the presence of thousands of trees.
Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship
Keegan Bradley wins a golf tournament are not words you might have expected to hear yourself say given his malaise in recent times, but something clicked at Aronimink 12 months ago and the former PGA Championship winner ended his lengthy title drought.
It was a victory based upon one scarcely believable fact: Bradley ranked first in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, which is almost unheard of for this premium ball-striker with the heavy hands on the greens.
Still, he took the honors in style with a final round of 64, and that was an effort that saw him leapfrog 54-hole leader Justin Rose and his nearest challengers Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.
Bradley did still need a playoff to defeat Rose, but he did so with the minimum of fuss on the first extra hole: the Englishman failing to get up-and-down to make par. It was Bradley’s first victory in more than six years.
Highlights | Round 4 | BMW 2018 2018
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 BMW Championship, 18 holes were not enough on Monday as Justin Rose and Keegan Bradley moved to a sudden death playoff. Bradley making a 4 on the 1st playoff hole to secure the win.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week
This is the penultimate week of the 2018/19 PGA TOUR season, so if you’ve earned a nice stack over the course of the past few months now is the time to shine as the DFS campaign also reaches its final curtain.
- PGA $1M Mini Main Event: First place bags a cool $200k here, so why not throw your hat into the ring at $8 a time? The top 40 earn a minimum of $1,000 too.
- PGA $100k Birdie: If you’ve not been swayed by the Mini and Main Event contests then why not stick to a classic: this Birdie game is notoriously soft, yet offers players plenty of money-grabbing potential.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship
The good news is that Medinah is a characterful track that helps us to work nicely through the field and decide who might flourish this week.
On the other hand, we have 70 of the best golfers on the planet to sift through, each of whom is not lacking in motivation.
Not unusually but less common in big events like this, the emphasis will be on the big stick in Illinois. This is what we might call a ‘total driver’s’ layout, where hitting the ball miles, but with strategy and control in mind, is key.
Short hitters are going to find Medinah a physical test, whereas wayward bombers will find themselves in lush rough and often blocked out by the trees.
Naysayers will look to the 2006 PGA Championship leaderboard and say that shorter players can thrive at Medinah – the likes of Choi, Stricker and Donald all featured prominently in the shake-up.
But remember: the stewards can add up to 200 yards on that 7,400 yardage, and given that more than a decade has passed since that tournament we would expect them to do so.
Players comfortable going long and shaping the ball both ways around crazy doglegs will seize the initiative at Medinah CC, and there’s really not much else to add!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 86.6, GPFP: 84.85 Salary: $10,900)
Despite displaying all of his trademark fighting qualities at Liberty National, Jon Rahm couldn’t quite reel in Reed on Sunday.
And yet he will reflect on what might have been having held the outright lead on his own at a couple of different junctures in the final round.
No matter: it’s form in the bank for the Spaniard, and at a layout where his natural brilliance with the big stick will come to the fore he has to be respected.
An excellent shaper of the ball either way, Rahm has plenty of useful results in the tank and right now he looks streets ahead of many of golf’s other leading lights. Can he be stopped at Medinah?
Key Stats:
- SG: Total – 7th
- Total Driving – 10th
- SG: Putting – 32nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 83.6, GPFP: 76.92 Salary: $9,800)
This Bentgrass behemoth has almost certainly got a big win or two in his locker, and the test at Medinah should suit him down to a tee.
Cantlay’s best work tends to come on this surface, and as an excellent driver of the ball who can hit fade or draw the presence of a forest’s-worth of trees does not hold any fear.
He also has genuine claims to win the FedExCup this season, and such a motivating factor cannot be ignored as the campaign reaches its final embers.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 15th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
- SG: Putting – 18th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 65.7, GPFP: 52.55 Salary: $7,700)
For a brief moment it looked as if Ancer was going to claim the maiden PGA TOUR title of his career on Sunday, and while it wasn’t to be it was another forward step in this young man’s game.
Afterwards he spoke of his pride at being the first Mexican to qualify for the International team at the President’s Cup, and it’s those milestones that give players the belief that they can perform at the highest level.
Ancer is another who is most at home on Bentgrass, and his T8 at the Travelers earlier in the summer suggests he will feel comfortable at Medinah – even allowing for the differences in length, there are similarities between the two courses.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 4th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 10th
- Scoring Average – 42nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 54.33 Salary: $7,200)
There was a tweet this week from Geno Bonnalie, the caddie of Joel Dahmen, who described Im as ‘the most impressive player I’ve seen’.
Kind words indeed, but the Korean has largely proved the point with seven top-10 finishes in his debut PGA TOUR season.
The only thing missing from his resumé is a win at the top level, and as Bradley proved in this event 12 months ago you can still see a ‘shock’ winner or two in FedExCup tournaments.
Im is outstanding off the tee, makes lots of birdies and has been playing very well indeed lately. It’s a recipe you’d like to think will succeed at Medinah.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
- Total Driving – 25th
- Scoring Average – 26th
Low-Tier Pick:
Troy Merritt (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 64.9, GPFP: 68.82 Salary: $6,800)
His form can change almost in the blink of an eye, but Merritt has been playing some good golf of late and is worth a look at a sub $7k price.
He has rather ghosted his way into this stage of the FedExCup with some strong showings in recent weeks, with solo second at the Barracuda Championship, T7 at the 3M Open and T12 at the Northern Trust getting him to this point.
Merritt is a decent driver of the ball whose recent form suggests he can compete with the big guns at Medinah.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 9th
- Greens in Regulation – 29th
- Total Driving – 34th
Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship
Jason Day (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 66.3, GPFP: 53.67 Salary: $8,100)
It was confirmed this week that the Australian has split from his former caddie, Steve Williams.
So we have a player seemingly in the doldrums that is seeking a way out of his mess, and the fact that Day has tasked a close friend with carrying his bag this week is intriguing.
It should mean that he gets back to basics: just hitting the golf ball in the way that hassled him to countless titles worldwide, without over-analyzing or thinking too much about the mechanics of his swing.
It’s a risky strategy for DFS gamers to draft such a player, but Day is genuinely world-class and perhaps this caddie change is the catalyst he needs to find his best form.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
- Scoring Average – 18th
- Greens in Regulation – 19th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship
Corey Conners (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 56.1, GPFP: 44.90 Salary: $6,600)
The young Canadian continues to impress with his ball-striking, and it’s a skillset that should serve him very nicely this week.
Conners is outstanding off the tee and typically very good with his irons, so once he figures out how to putt the world had better watch out.
His win at the Texas Open did the bulk of the work in getting Conners to this stage of the FedExCup, but don’t write off the consistency of a player that has finished no lower than T27 in any of his last three Tour starts.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- SG: Approach – 13th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
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