Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Charles Schwab Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Charles Schwab Challenge

2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview

Cometh the hour, cometh the man!

Can anybody really be surprised that Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship on Sunday? The guy is an absolute beast who already has three majors to his name before even turning 30, and by taking the spoils at Bethpage Black on Sunday he adds all kinds of records to his collection.

The newly anointed world number one has become the first player in golf history to hold two different majors back-to-back, and the first to win a quartet of majors in two years or fewer.

Brooks Koepka of the United States celebrates winning on the 18th…

Brooks Koepka of the United States celebrates winning on the 18th green during the final round of the US PGA Championship at Bethpage Black Golf Course on May 19, 2019 in Farmingdale, United States. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Brooks also became the first man to win the PGA Championship from wire-to-wire, and in truth nobody really got close with Danny Lee one shot adrift following the opening round and Dustin Johnson getting within two on Sunday as Koepka just started to feel the pressure.

Like all good champions, the 29-year-old showed true guts when he needed them the most. The Long Island crowd were getting behind Dustin Johnson as he rallied during the final round, and that manifested itself as some inappropriate behavior towards Koepka, with cat-calling as he addressed the ball on the tee and even outbursts during his backswing. That’s becoming an increasingly annoying part of the modern game, and hopefully the morons involved never set foot on a golf course again.

Brooks made four straight bogeys from eleven through fifteen, opening the door for DJ to pounce. But he fluffed his lines too, bogeying 16 and 17, and that allowed Koepka to stumble over the finishing line like a marathon runner with cramp in both legs.

The big man can enjoy some time off to polish his trophy collection, while some of the key figures from the Bethpage Black assignment making their way to Fort Worth, Texas for the newly-named Charles Schwab Challenge (formerly the Fort Worth Invitational, amongst other names) at the Colonial Country Club.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

We stuck to our guns last week and ran with Brooks as our MUST HAVE roster pick and wow did it pay off! Brooks not only won the PGA Championship but he lit up the DFS scoreboards with a mountain of points. 

Overall, out of our seven regular picks, we missed one cut (Vegas) and our Sleeper Report yielded some great lower priced players including Cantlay (T3) and Scott (T8). 

Brooks Koepka of the United States poses with the Wanamaker Trophy…

Brooks Koepka of the United States poses with the Wanamaker Trophy during the Trophy Presentation Ceremony after winning the final round of the 2019 PGA Championship at the Bethpage Black course on… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Brooks heading into Bethpage last week:

This being a major, there is of course good competition for our salary cap this week.

We’ve pointed out a few reasons why we think the big hitters can thrive this week, and of all the bombers the one that stands out the most at the prices is Brooks Koepka.

Here’s a guy who, yet to turn 30, has three majors wins to his name, plus a trio of other top-fives and a T6 and T10 at the British Open.

One of the other appealing factors about Brooks this week is that he has consolidated his Masters form with a decent solo fourth at the AT&T Byron Nelson last time out. He was excellent from tee-to-green, by and large, and putted well too. Koepka was a few duffed chips away from contending.

But as we know, it’s the majors where he really earns his corn, and a switch to the East Coast on a long, hard golf course should suit him to a tee.

The 2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Field

Defending champion Justin Rose will headline what is a pleasingly strong field immediately after the second major of the year.

It’s a decent trip from Long Island to Fort Worth, but the likes of Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are making it anyway despite their disappointment at Bethpage Black.

Jordan Spieth returns to his home state in good spirits after a T3 finish in the PGA Championship – his first significant turn in quite some time, while Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele and Paul Casey will be looking for easier conditions at Colonial this week.

Francesco Molinari heads a strong European challenge alongside Ian Poulter, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, while former Colonial champions Kevin Kisner and Zach Johnson will be looking to slip into the tartan jacket once more.

Bryson Dechambeau of the United States plays his shot from the 16th…

Bryson Dechambeau of the United States plays his shot from the 16th tee during the second round of the 2019 PGA Championship at the Bethpage Black course on May 17, 2019 in Farmingdale, New York. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s off to Hogan’s Alley this week as the PGA TOUR stops off in the Lone Star State once again.

This Par 70 track plays at around 7,200 yards, with just two Par 5s – including the second hole – for the players to attack.

Colonial Country Club was originally opened in 1936 and hosted the US Open five years later. Perry Maxwell was then given licence to go to town on the layout and in doing so he created the ‘Horrible Horseshoe’: the famous trio of holes from three to five.

The third is a Par 4 measuring 483 yards that features a curvaceous dogleg to the left – nobody in their right mind is taking driver here, while the fourth is a Par 3 of 247 yards where the approach is played into an elevated green.

And the fifth is routinely the hardest hole at Colonial. One of the narrowest fairways on the course, there’s water left and right off the tee before another precise approach is required into a small green that slopes from back to front.

Trees line most of the fairways at Colonial, with twelve holes doglegging one way or the other, while the Bentgrass greens are typically smaller than the PGA TOUR average. There’s no shortage of sand either, while water is in play on half-a-dozen holes.

A general view of the 18th green as Justin Rose of England looks over…

A general view of the 18th green as Justin Rose of England looks over a putt during the final round of the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club on May 27, 2018 in Fort Worth, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

Those who choose to play this week after their trials and tribulations at Bethpage Black may be wondering what they’ve gotten themselves in for!

The forecast is, well, unpredictable to say the least. Rain is in the offing on Tuesday with a 90% chance of precipitation, and it could be a wet start to proceedings on Thursday too with scattered thunderstorms and wind speeds of up to 21 mph.

Business should pick up from Friday onwards. There will be intermittent sunny spells in between the cloud, with temperatures reaching around 87°F. The breeze will be a constant feature though at around 16 mph on average.

Last Year’s Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge

Justin Rose decided to play Colonial in line with the new PGA TOUR ruling about adding a new event to the individual’s schedule, and boy did the Englishman make it count.

He ended a five-year hiatus from this tournament by shooting a pair of 64s and a pair of 66s on his way to a three-shot triumph over Brooks Koepka. Rose’s victory was never in doubt really, even despite Koepka closing hard with 63.

It wasn’t quite a wire-to-wire triumph for the former US Open champion but it wasn’t far off, and he trailed Kevin Na – who opened with a sublime 62 – by four strokes after the first round.

Na incidentally would also close out with 61 – he owned the two lowest rounds of the week – to claim solo fourth, with the Argentine Emiliano Grillo enjoying third place on his own.

Justin Rose’s highlights | Round 4 | Fort Worth

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Fort Worth Invitational, Justin Rose finished at 20 under Sunday at Colonial for a three-stroke victory in the Fort Worth Invitational. The Fort Worth Invitational takes place at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Charles Schwab Challenge this Week

It’s time to restock the larder after the PGA Championship, and so we’ll go with two lower-budget contests this week that can help you to build that bankroll back up if you enjoyed something of a splurge at Bethpage.

• PGA $500k Drive the Green: The Drive the Green contest regains its position as the big event of the week as far as DFS is concerned. For $5 entry you could bank the $100k top prize, while the top 20% of finishers will trouser a prize worthy of their efforts.
• PGA $50k Birdie: The bigger prizes might be a tad stingier for this $5 entry affair, but you’ll only have to finish inside the top 25% of teams to earn a prize, and that is reassuring ahead of a fairly difficult tournament to decipher.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Charles Schwab Challenge

We’re looking at the possibility of the post-major blues this week, and we should only be looking to draft those with something to prove by turning in a big performance at Colonial.

The list of former winners here is instructive. Names like Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson, David Toms and Steve Stricker confirm that distance off the tee is not a pre-requisite for success at this stretch, while the chance for the likes of Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson to put the big stick away and actually hit some fairways for once clearly aided their title quest.

Plenty of irons will be taken off the tee this week as there are some tight doglegs to navigate, and the presence of over-hanging trees makes accurate tee shots a priority. Remember, the Bentgrass greens at Colonial are smaller than usual too, so approaching from the short grass is preferable.

Otherwise, there’s not a lot else to be permed from the course fit notes, other than staying out of trouble – there’s plenty of sand and water around – is vital. And, of course, with only two Par 5s to score on you’ll have to do the bulk of your scoring on the Par 4s – remember, Rose won in -20 here 12 months ago while Spieth recorded -17 in 2016, so despite the difficulties at Colonial this is a track that can be beaten.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge

Top Tier Pick #1:  

Jon Rahm (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 85.4, GPFP: 69.16 Salary: $11,200)

When we talk about players with a point to prove, Jon Rahm immediately springs to mind.

The Spaniard will have been furious to miss the cut at Bethpage Black, especially after opening up with a respectable round of 70.

Nevertheless, we’ll back Rahm to bounce back this week and show just why he is one of the best players at the planet.

An underrated aspect of his game is just how good he is off the tee. Rahm is comfortable shaping the ball both ways, and with irons and woods in hand he can really come into his own at tracks like Colonial, where it’s no coincidence he has banked consecutive top-five finishes.

A player ranked sixth on Tour for Par 4 Scoring Average will naturally come to mind on a Par 70 layout that suits, and Rahm – with the bit between his teeth following his annihilation in New York – could take some stopping this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 6th
• Birdie Average – 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th

Top-Tier Pick #2:  

Paul Casey (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 73.1, GPFP: 78.24 Salary: $9,300)

After a strange turn at Augusta where he was expected to go very nicely once again, Paul Casey has bounced back to form.

The Englishman missed the cut at the Masters just a matter of weeks after winning the Valspar Championship for the second consecutive year, and that was something of a headscratcher.

But no matter, because he rallied with T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship before a decent enough effort last week in the PGA.

Casey gained +2.21 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – no mean feat given the challenging conditions – and once again it was his nemesis, the flat stick, that prevented an advancement on his T29 finish.

But his tidy game from tee to green will stand him in excellent stead at Colonial, and a T10 here in 2017 on his last visit is a nice little look-in.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• Driving Accuracy – 13th
• Greens in Regulation – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Chez Reavie (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 69.2, GPFP: 55.35 Salary: $8,300)

It was slightly bizarre to see Chez Reavie’s name appear towards the top of the leaderboard, albeit briefly, last week on a track that was completely unsuited to his natural game.

It’s further evidence that the confidence is returning to his game after a fallow spring on the Tour, with that T14 effort at Bethpage his third consecutive top-30 finish.

An accurate driver who is very good on approach, Reavie’s form is surprisingly hit and miss at Colonial despite this layout seeming to suit him perfectly. But you will find T5 and T11 finishes in amongst the mediocrity.

The 37-year-old boasts plenty of advantages on many in the field given this track is almost tailormade for him, and an improvement in form of late suggests a season’s-best performance could be just around the corner.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 26th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Brandt Snedeker (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 65.6, GPFP: 70.82 Salary: $7,900)

It was a strange old week for Brandt Snedeker at Bethpage, where he posted 74-67-73-69 to sneak into the top-20.

That followed a T5 return from THE PLAYERS Championship, and so there’s confirmation, if any were needed, that Sneds plays classic golf courses very well.

He’s somebody who tends to favor the opportunity not to hit driver at every turn, and his lack of power does not put him at a disadvantage at Colonial as it tends to do elsewhere.

There will be missed greens this week, it’s inevitable given the small stature of the surfaces, but we’re banking on Snedeker’s magical short game keeping him in the hunt with the leaders when his approach efforts don’t land.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
• SG: Putting – 22nd
• Scrambling – 43rd

Low-Tier Pick: 

Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.6, GPFP: 47.65 Salary: $6,700)

The archetypal ‘under the radar’ player, Vaughn Taylor is certainly worth a second look this week.

He boasts both current and course form. Consecutive top-20s at the Wells Fargo and AT&T Byron Nelson in his last pair of starts – with six rounds in the 60s – is confirmation of the former, while a handy 20-18 at Colonial in his last pair of visits also bodes well for a sub $7,000 signing.

Haplessly short off the tee, Taylor is another who will feel at home at Colonial without the need to bemoan the modern trend of bombers ruling the roost.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 25th
• Scrambling – 36th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 39th

Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Abraham Ancer (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 66.9, GPFP: 53.55 Salary: $7,600)

The Texan returns home to the Lone Star State on the back of a revitalizing T16 effort at the PGA Championship.

Ancer gained strokes on the field in all departments at Bethpage Black, and that’s very handy form heading into an assignment that he should enjoy.

Ancer is another excellent shot-shaper off the tee for whom the presence of trees lining the fairways is of no concern, and the fact he has banked plenty of Bentgrass form is also of significance.

We talk about motivation the week after a major, and there’s guys like Ancer who are chomping at the bit for their maiden PGA TOUR title. An event like this might just be where the breakthrough comes for this noted wind player.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 10th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 11th
• Scrambling – 23rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Danny Lee (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 61.0, GPFP: 67.68 Salary: $7,300)

He was in striking distance of a second PGA TOUR win here in 2017, sitting just strokes off the lead with a round to play.

Lee ended up in T6 and followed up 12 months later with a T14, so this is a layout that suits his eye, and that makes last week’s opening 64 at Bethpage even more eye-catching.

The New Zealander is something of a sprayer off the tee, and so opportunities like these – where the big stick is kept firmly in the bag – are welcomed by a player who is a bit of a whizz with his irons given how many fairways he misses.

That brings him into mind where the greens are smaller than the norm, and so there’s no reason why Lee can’t shine at a shotmaker’s layout like Colonial.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 48th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 52nd
• Greens in Regulation – 73rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.70%” bar_text=”7 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.69%” bar_text=”41 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”36.50%” bar_text=”69 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”14.81%” bar_text=”4 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.40%” bar_text=”2 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”76.72%” bar_text=”145 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Charles Schwab Challenge with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram