Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Charles Schwab Challenge
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview
And we’re back!
After what feels like a lifetime without our favorite sport, golf returns on Thursday with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the legendary Colonial Country Club.
The PGA TOUR has worked wonders in putting together a revised schedule to complete the rest of the season, and barring any complications from the coronavirus there will be one tournament each week until the traditional conclusion of the campaign – the TOUR Championship – in September.
One of the unique machinations of the ‘new normal’ is that, for now at least, no crowds will be allowed to gather on the course. That will present a new dynamic for each event, and may offer some unique conditions for DFS gamers and sports bettors to consider.
Will guys like Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka, who seem to get pumped when playing in loud environments or in front of significant numbers of people, be able to get their mojo going?
Will players like Tony Finau, blessed with outstanding talent but unable to close out a win, feel more at ease down the closing stretch?
Only time will tell, of course, but it will certainly be interesting to watch the drama unfold in these unprecedented moments for professional golf.
Having had at least 12 weeks off competitive golf since the first round of the PLAYERS Championship, we take something of a leap into the unknown at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
But elite-level golf is back….and that’s all that matters!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Since THE PLAYERS Championship was cut short after day one, all current year-to-date fantasy stats below remain unchanged heading into this week.
To recap, so far this year over 20 events, we’ve picked 5 winners (25%) and made 101 out of 140 cuts (72.14%).
Don’t forget to use our GPFP Algorithm and Key Stats Tool to narrow down your searches.
Charles Schwab Challenge Field
Any concerns as to whether the players would want to risk their health playing in these times can be quickly kicked to the curb when we look at the field this week.
This is, in spirit if not by name, a major-quality field, and proof positive that everyone simply wants to get back to their day job.
Leading the way we have Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau.
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Such is the depth of this talent pool that you have the likes of Dustin Johnson (+2800), Rickie Fowler (+3500) and Tony Finau (+4000) at crazy betting prices, while recent(ish) Tour winners Patrick Reed and Sungjae Im find themselves in a similar bracket.
Major winners pepper the field with Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth also in the mix, while defending champion here Kevin Na will be looking to add to his fine record at Colonial.
Finally, when you have Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson both as also-rans at Vegas odds of +12500 you know that this is an extraordinarily deep field!
This Week’s Course Preview
Historically, the likes of McIlroy and Thomas have steered clear of playing at Colonial Country Club.
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and so they will be taking a trip to Fort Worth, Texas for the resumption of the season.
Quite why they, and others, have consistently avoided Colonial remains to be seen, but one thing that is for certain is that the players will find themselves enjoying a quality test of their ball-striking this week.
Nicknamed ‘Hogan’s Alley’ after Ben Hogan, the nine-time major champion who won five times at Colonial, this is an old-fashioned style track where the emphasis is on strategy, accurate ball-striking and reliable short putting.
The Par 70 layout measures around 7,200 yards in length and features twelve Par 4 holes and just two Par 5s, so making hay on the ‘standard’ holes is key.
There are many tree-lined and doglegging holes – predominantly on the ‘horrible horseshoe’ of three, four and five, which is ranked as one of the trickiest trio of holes on the PGA TOUR.
There are stacks of bunkers on the premises too, and many of these protect the smaller-than-average Bentgrass greens, which run at a fair old lick of around 12 on the stimp when weather conditions allow.
Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX
It’s going to be an extremely hot and dry week for the players to enjoy in Fort Worth.
The mercury could hit a whopping 98°F by the weekend, and even for the 7am starters it should be a very agreeable 70°F at worst.
There is literally no rain in the forecast – precipitation is set at 0% throughout the four days of action, while the wind looks fairly settled at around the 10-12mph mark, which is pretty standard in Texas at the best of times.
Last Year’s Results for Charles Schwab Challenge
The course record at Colonial is 61 – a feat achieved by seven men, one of whom is Kevin Na.
As if to prove his love of this course, it was actually a second round of 62 that ultimately fired Na to victory here last time around.
He followed up with a 69 to give the likes of Tony Finau, C.T. Pan and Ryan Palmer a sniff of a chance, but an assured hand on Sunday – he birdied three of the opening six holes – led Na to his second PGA TOUR victory inside a calendar year….he would go in again at the Shriners in 2020, of course.
He won by four in the end after making a birdie at the last as well, with Finau, Pan, Andrew Putnam and Jonas Blixt rounding out the top-five. You suspect there will be some rather bigger names at the head of the leaderboard come Sunday….
Highlights | Round 4 | Charles Schwab 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Charles Schwab Challenge this Week
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This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Charles Schwab Challenge
How do we handicap a golf field in which the players haven’t played competitively for three months!?
Well, we have to go back to old-fashioned research and course profiling in order to work around the fact we have no recent form to work with.
So what do we know about Colonial? Well, length off the tee seems to be wholly irrelevant given that Na, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and David Toms have all won here, and instead our focus turns to other areas of excellence.
The sheer number of doglegging holes puts accurate shot shaping at a premium, as does the ability to avoid what are strategically-placed bunkers along the fairways and peppered around the greens.
The rough tends to be thick and difficult to play from too, and given that the greens are small we really need our picks to be approaching from the short grass more often than not.
These Bentgrass surfaces are slick too, so we need players comfortable in that environment – there will be many putts attempted from inside 20ft, so that should prove to be a key stat this week.
And, like any Par 70 layout, Colonial places an emphasis on Par 4 performance, and because there are some tough holes on this stretch Bogey Avoidance is another stat to consider.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win Charles Schwab Challenge
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win Charles Schwab Challenge
Top Tier Pick:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 99.3, GPFP: 117.12 Salary: $9,800)
If ever there was a time to pivot away from the big guns, this week must surely be it.
With three months away from competitive action, there will presumably be some kind of leveling of the field effect, and remember that guys like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau haven’t a huge amount of experience at Colonial.
He may not be a fashionable name, but Webb Simpson IS one of the best players in the world – his OWGR of seven is testament to that – and he should be considered for any draft, but especially so when the absolute elite are shy of match practice.
Simpson has always been exceptional from tee-to-green, but now his putter is starting to behave itself the rewards are coming – the Phoenix Open champion has banked four consecutive top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR.
Ranking first on Tour for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Performance, Simpson is the perfect pick on Par 70 tracks where there is an element of difficulty.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Performance – 1st
- Bogey Avoidance – 1st
- SG: Putting – 13th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 79.5, GPFP: 63.60 Salary: $9,600)
Many expert pundits predict that Xander Schauffele will be a multiple major winner by the end of his career, and one of the reasons for that is his ability to minimize mistakes.
Ranking top-10 on Tour for Bogey Avoidance, Schauffele comes into his own at more testing layouts, and Colonial – its complexity multiplied by a lack of competitive golf among the field – ticks that box.
The weak point of his game – accuracy off the tee – will be lessened by taking irons and woods off the peg this week, and that will let his fantastic iron and wedge shine from the short stuff.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 8th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th
- Bogey Avoidance – 10th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Tony Finau (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 72.8, GPFP: 81.54 Salary: $8,700)
One of the most appealing features of Tony Finau’s game is his consistency, and the hope is that he will be the kind of player who can hit the ground running hard.
Another tee-to-green flusher, Finau has shown glimpses of an improvement with the flat stick this season and he has been able to convert chances created by his iron and wedge game.
Second in this event last year, Finau has a well-documented problem of getting over the line so maybe the lack of golf of others – and the lack of a crowd building the pressure – may be to his advantage.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
- SG: Approach – 10th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 32nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Kevin Na (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 66.7, GPFP: 76.05 Salary: $7,600)
In these unprecedented times, maybe course history becomes an even more important consideration than normal.
You won’t find many with a Colonial record quite like Kevin Na, our defending champion this week who also has two other top-10 finishes here within the last five years.
It’s no surprise really, given that the layout suits Na’s game to a tee. His lack of length is not a major impediment, and the small greens put a premium on a quality short game – arguably the standout of the 36-year-old’s armory.
With three PGA TOUR wins since the Fall of 2018, Na has become sneaky prolific, and he will surely fancy the job this week.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 6th
- SG: Putting – 7th
- SG: Total – 28th
Low-Tier Pick:
Danny Lee (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 62.5, GPFP: 66.88 Salary: $7,200)
With three top-15 finishes and a T22 at Colonial within the last five years, Danny Lee is a low budget chalk play that should reward his backers with a decent run this week.
It seems like a lifetime ago now, but Lee was well fancied at the halfway stage of his last outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – a closing pair of 75s put paid to that, but he at least closed out the first part of the season with confidence.
A solid tee-to-green player who thrives on Bentgrass greens, Lee ranks inside the top-40 on Tour for Scoring Average, and so he should be on the shortlist this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 40th
- Scrambling – 41st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 69th
Sleeper Pick for Charles Schwab Challenge
Harris English (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 77.0, GPFP: 88.60 Salary: $7,500)
There has been a significant renaissance to Harris English’s game this season, and he has been playing as well as he did in his peak of 2013-14 when he won twice on the PGA TOUR.
Ranking top-10 for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Performance, English has the grinding game for Colonial and that is confirmed by his consistency this term – seven top-25s in eleven starts is an excellent return.
If he returns in the form he showed prior to the coronavirus pandemic, English will surely be a valuable sleeper this week.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 11th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 18th
- SG: Putting – 39th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for Charles Schwab Challenge
Harry Higgs (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 66.1, GPFP: 52.88 Salary: $7,000)
It’s been a solid start to his maiden PGA TOUR campaign for Harry Higgs, and he might just fancy a return to Texan soil where he studied and now lives.
With 11 cuts made in 15 starts, Higgs is a reliable and consistent performer with two top-10s and six further top-25s – a perfect formula for a low budget sleeper play.
Higgs has ground out decent scores in tough conditions at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, so he could thrive in what will be an unusual tournament at Colonial.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 26th
- Scoring Average – 29th
- SG: Putting – 66th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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