Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Farmers Insurance Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Farmers Insurance Open
The Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview
There is just something about The American Express, and its various other guises, that seems to throw up the most unlikely of outcomes.
In 2019, for example, Adam Long won despite a spectacularly poor start to the season – a nice little 500/1 earner for any soothsayers that saw that victory coming.
And you’d have to say that Andrew Landry’s triumph in La Quinta on Sunday was right up there as far as bonkers PGA TOUR wins is concerned.
How does a player who has five consecutive missed cuts to his name just wake up and win an event like The American Express? Who knows, but the former Texas Open champion had a simple manifesto: make more birdies than anybody else.
And that he did – four more than anybody else, to be precise – to cap a two-shot victory over the fast-finishing Abraham Ancer.
Are we expecting such an unlikely conqueror of Torrey Pines this week? Given that the last four winners here have been Rose, Day, Rahm and Snedeker, perhaps not!
The Torrey Pines South Course tends to sort the men from the boys, and that’s where we’re heading this week for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our top two guys last week were Fowler (T10) and Noren (T14) while Landry ended up running away with it. Fowler, after firing 64-65 in the first two days, closed the weekend a bit disappointingly, going 70-71.
The Farmers Insurance Open Field
The Farmers Insurance Open has historically felt like the tournament where the PGA TOUR year really gets underway, and the stellar cast that will meet at Torrey Pines is of the highest order.
There’s Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose, as well as the exciting young bucks Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and, following last week’s disappointment, Scottie Scheffler.
The quality keeps on coming in the shape of a pair of two-time champions at Torrey Pines in Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker, while the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau ad Rickie Fowler will be desperate to get another PGA TOUR win on the board.
Sony Open champion Cameron Smith and bad-boy Patrick Reed are also in the mix for what is the first ‘proper’ field of 2020.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s another split course event in California….albeit this week’s assignment is rather different from The American Express.
I’s more difficult, for one thing, with three rounds played at Torrey Pines South, which is a real test of ball striking.
It’s a relentlessly long stretch at 7,698 for its Par 72, and with thinner-than-average fairways there is a real challenge to consistently find the short grass. With thick rough and plenty of hazards in play, it’s no surprise to learn that Torrey Pines South once played host to a US Open.
The greens are a touch unusual too, in that they are Poa Annua – a strain fairly native to this part of the country on the west coast.
Light relief is provided by the North Course, which the players tackle for one of their opening rounds. The Tom Weiskopf track is much easier than the South – playing as much as two strokes lower, on average, with wider fairways and slick Bentgrass greens that are very receptive.
Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA
La Jolla, a stone’s throw from San Diego, looks set for a cool but dry week ahead.
The sun will be out but look at the temperatures – 64°F does not exactly get the juices flowing, so it will be something of a comedown for those who played last week and in Hawaii.
Barely a drop of rain is expected, with wind speeds of 7-9 mph doing very little to put anybody off.
Last Year’s Results for the Farmers Insurance Open
From the moment he opened up with a round of 63, there was no looking back from Justin Rose as he claimed his tenth PGA TOUR title.
The Englishman led by three after the second and third rounds, and it was always going to take something extraordinary to overturn this prolific champion’s lead.
That said, Rose himself tried his best to throw it away, bogeying three of his opening five holes on Sunday as the likes of Adam Scott and Jon Rahm edged closer.
But the major winner showed his pedigree by rallying, playing his final 12 holes in -5 to secure a two-shot triumph over the Australian.
No Title
In the final round of the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open, Justin Rose was able to hold off a charging Adam Scott, carding a 3-under 69 to get to 21-under for the tournament and two strokes clear of the field for his 10th career PGA TOUR victory.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Farmers Insurance Open this Week
The big guns will be taking to the tee in California this week, and so the DFS sites have rolled out some big guns of their own to celebrate!
- PGA $500k King of the Pines: DraftKings has brought back this popular contest, where for $5 players can attempt to win $100k top prize. Fear not if you fall short: the top 100 players all bag at least $100.
- PGA $50k Slice: With a $5k top prize and a minimum of 2x cash for the top 20% of players, there’s plenty to like about this $9 entry contest. An excellent choice for gamers of all budgets.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Farmers Insurance Open
Given the length of the South Course and the combination of thin fairways and tough rough, clearly this is a golf course where outstanding drivers of the ball can thrive.
That is evident in the rollcall of winners here: Tiger Woods (x7), Jason Day (x2), Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson and Justin Rose, who are all behemoths with the big stick when on song.
Classier operators tend to thrive here too, and so that has to be the takeaway point for gamers this week: those who rank nicely for Total Driving and SG: Off-the-Tee, and have a habit of winning, are must-picks.
Those who find the fairway don’t have too much to fear at the business end of holes. These greens are receptive and run quite smoothly too, with little protection or danger. Hit your approaches close or drain some long putts – either is valid.
Unusually, the business end of the holes tends to be easier, with large greens easy enough to find for accurate types with a long iron in hand.
An aside is that going low on the North Course is pretty much a necessity, and that Par 72 layout is there for the taking – especially those who can convert birdies and better on the Par 5s.
There will be some nerves around on the tee on Sunday, and that is once again why we have to be backing proven horses this week in California.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
Top Tier Pick:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 101.0, GPFP: 90.90 Salary: $11,300)
When we think of Torrey Pines, we automatically think of the best drivers in the world.
It’s amazing that Rory McIlroy hasn’t played here more often in the past, but the Irishman’s lengthy lay-off after a stellar end to the 2019 campaign is just enough for us to, grudgingly, give him a fade here.
So step forward Jon Rahm, one of the longest, straightest and most aggressive drivers of the ball in the sport.
The Spaniard is also one of the most prolific winners on the planet, claiming four titles worldwide in 2019, and let’s not forget he won here back in 2017 too.
With plenty of doubts about many at the top of the market this week, we could be in for the dreamy prospect of a Rahm vs McIlroy shootout, and right now we’re happy to just about be on the world number three’s side in that battle on a layout he enjoys.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th
- Scoring Average – 6th
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 23rd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Gary Woodland (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 94.2, GPFP: 108.83 Salary: $9,500)
Given how strong he is off the tee, it’s perhaps something of an eyebrow-raiser that Gary Woodland hasn’t won more in his career.
But the 35-year-old showed in the US Open last year he’s got the game for the big time, and this is a player who has found an average of 75% fairways from a driving distance of a shade under 300 yards – phenomenal stuff.
Woodland tends to pick and choose his events, but he never misses Torrey Pines: he’s not missed a cut here in his last seven visits, with T9, T10 and T12 finishes in that run.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 6th
- Greens in Regulation – 12th
- Scoring Average – 14th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Ryan Palmer (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 85.7, GPFP: 106.82 Salary: $8,000)
One of the most quietly impressive performers in world golf these past few months has been Ryan Palmer.
In his last four strokeplay starts he has finished no lower than T12, and he actually saved his best for his last outing at the Sony Open (T4).
The Texan has to now convince he can perform when there isn’t a gale blowing, but he is reliably consistent at Torrey Pines and could enjoy the full reward of his recent form by getting into the mix once more in California.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Approach – 17th
- Total Driving – 29th
- Greens in Regulation – 37th
Mid-Tier Pick #3:
Sebastian Munoz (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 76.0, GPFP: 60.80 Salary: $7,300)
A reliably excellent driver of the golf ball, Sebastian Munoz has the all-round form to go well at Torrey Pines.
The Colombian racked up his first PGA TOUR win at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier in the campaign, and since then he has banked a solo third at the RSM Classic, showed up nicely at the Tournament of Champions and played some decent stuff at The American Express last time out.
Ranking top 40 on Tour for Total Driving and SG: Off-the-Tee, Munoz was particularly strong with his irons last week, so if he can find some putts – he ranks 31st for SG: Putting this season, incidentally – then who knows what he can achieve in California.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 31st
- Scoring Average – 31st
- Total Driving – 38th
Low-Tier Pick:
Sepp Straka (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 48.7, GPFP: 38.36 Salary: $6,900)
There was a display of majestic ball-striking from Sepp Straka last week at the American Express, and to be fair to the Austrian it was the kind of performance that would have taken him close to victory on most weeks of the year.
His iron play was nothing short of extraordinary, and if he can continue that form at Torrey Pines and marry it to his typically very good driving, Straka can far outperform the expectations of others here.
A T13 finish here a year ago sets the scene rather nicely!
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 28th
- Scrambling – 55th
- SG: Approach – 68th
Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open
Tom Hoge (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 107.5, GPFP: 48.20 Salary: $7,900)
Ranking inside the Tour’s top-50 for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting, it’s no great surprise that Tom Hoge’s form has improved immeasurably of late.
T12 at the Sony Open and T6 at the American Express, the North Carolinan looks likely at the moment and could get into the mix at a layout where his strong ball-striking should come to the fore.
Typically, we might suggest that Hoge isn’t a good enough driver of the ball to thrive at Torrey Pines, but he does have a T12 finish here which suggests the layout at least suits his eye.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 19th
- Scoring Average – 33rd
- SG: Putting – 50th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 59.6, GPFP: 90.90 Salary: $6,600)
While other Korn Ferry Tour graduates have taken the limelight so far this season, one of the most quietly consistent performers from the second rung has been Matthew NeSmith.
T18 at the Shriners has been followed by a triple-header of decent form with T14 at the RSM Classic and T17 at last week’s American Express (he ranked inside the top-15 for Strokes Gained: Putting) backed by T32 at the Sony Open, where he ranked inside the top-10 for Strokes Gained: Putting.
A decent ball-striker then, evidently, that hits plenty of fairways and greens in regulation, NeSmith’s tidy game should be rewarded more at Torrey Pines than it might otherwise be elsewhere.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 31st
- SG: Putting – 32nd
- Scoring Average – 37th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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