Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Genesis Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Genesis Invitational
The Genesis Invitational Fantasy Preview
With three shots separating multiple-time Pebble Beach winner Phil Mickelson, major champion Jason Day and Nick Taylor heading into the final on Sunday, even the most optimistic of souls wouldn’t have been giving the Canadian much of a prayer.
His sole win on the PGA TOUR came back in 2014 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he has rarely looked like getting back into the winner’s enclosure since.
However, Taylor looked those legends in the eye and didn’t blink, playing his first six holes in four under – including an outrageous chip-in from the bunker on six.
Day’s challenge quickly evaporated, and with Mickelson’s miraculous short game deserting him down the home stretch, the Canadian was able to secure his second PG Tour title even with a few hiccups of his own on the back nine.
The split course, pro-am format can serve up the occasional surprise winner – and that is what we have to file Taylor under, with all due respect, but it’s far less likely that a shock champion emerges from the final event of the Californian Swing this week, the Genesis Invitational at the infamous Riviera Country Club.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Like most of you out there, Nick Taylor was NOT on our radar last week, and despite having Mickelson (3rd), our top dog Kuchar didn’t fair well enough, finishing T38 after the Sunday scaries kicked in with his closing 76!
Kuch was humming on Saturday but unfortunately he came up short on the final day.
The Genesis Invitational Field
This is surely the best field of the season so far, and it has a major-like feel to it despite one or two exceptions.
Good luck splitting Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, with Tiger Woods, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay also providing stern opposition.
The big names keep on coming: three-time Riviera champion Bubba, Rose, Day, Mickelson, Scott, Finau, Matsuyama….and so on.
The Genesis Invitational field is like a who’s who of world golf, and it’s depth will surely guarantee a high quality week of golf and a stellar finish on Sunday into the bargain.
This Week’s Course Preview
Given that it first hosted this event in 1929, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Riviera is a classic, traditionalists’ course.
And it is, to some extent. The clever landscaping has left some tight lines off the tee, with trees and thick Kikuyu rough dictating that only quality drivers need apply here.
But, that said, you can still miss fairways – as long as you know where to miss, and are creative in how you scramble your way to the green.
Playing at 7,322 yards for its Par 71, Riviera is a long old stretch and features six Par 4s that measure over 350 yards and a pair of Par 5s close to the 600-yard mark. Length is almost certainly an advantage here – especially when it’s wet.
The George Thomas design is quite unique – similarities to Augusta are occasionally mentioned – in that the course management side comes from knowing which fairways to miss and where, and also how to miss the green without short-siding yourself or leaving a stinky angle in.
To give you some idea of how to play this track, J.B. Holmes won here 12 months ago despite hitting just 52% of fairways. But he found 72% of greens in regulation, which shows that an ability to play out of rough or pine straw is essential this week.
The George Thomas design, which was given something of a facelift by Tom Fazio in 2008, is considered the ‘thinking man’s’ course, and the bulk of that thinking seems to go into where to miss the fairway.
And the final piece of the puzzle in solving the layout known affectionately as ‘Hogan’s Alley’ are the small and fast Poa Annua greens, which can be tough to hold when dry with their unique shelves and contours.
Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA
Fans of golf tournaments where the changing weather can have an impact on proceedings may just be disappointed by the 2020 Genesis Invitational.
The weather this week looks set to be completely predictable, tame and unchanging throughout the four days.
It will be pretty cool, with temperatures topping out at around the 64° mark, although at least the sun will be shining for much of the duration.
There’s not a huge amount of wind to talk about either, with the breeze stable at around 10-11 mph all week long.
Last Year’s Results for the Genesis Invitational
Three shots clear heading into the final round, it looked as if Justin Thomas was going to add yet another PGA TOUR title to his collection.
But the temperatures dropped and the wind got up, and what looked set to be a comfortable conversion suddenly became an afternoon to forget for JT.
His Sunday 75 ended his hopes, and the scene was set for another contender to take his place at the top of the tree.
So step forward, slowly, J.B. Holmes, who came through a marathon 33 holes in the day after the third round was delayed to complete a surprise victory.
He started strongly in his final round and never looked back, eventually closing out with a 70 which was enough to hold off the charge of the unpredictable-as-ever Si-Woo Kim.
J.B. Holmes highlights | Round 4 | Genesis Open 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Genesis Invitational this Week
Most of the world’s finest golfers have taken up the invitation to play this week, and the DFS sites have shown some opportunism of their own to deliver a hefty slate of contests with some bigger-than-usual prizes to be won.
- PGA $800k Invitational Special: Here’s a shiny new contest that offers some rather handsome riches to the winner: $200k, to be exact! The top-60 players in this $20 contest win a minimum of $500, so getting our draft right this week is imperative.
- PGA $400k Winter Golf Classic: Another contest that has been dusted off for Genesis is the Winter Golf Classic, which for a $100 entry offers the chance to win a number of hefty prizes. And you’ll only be competing with 4,400 teams for the $100k top payout.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Genesis Invitational
There is more than one way to cook the goose at Riviera CC, which is always a tad frustrating when trying to draw up a shortlist of potential winners.
But look: history dictates that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant here, and it’s how you recover that really counts.
There will be missed fairways and some missed greens too, so it’s really all about your powers of recovery. Some ingenuity will be required to keep big numbers off your card.
It’s really a second shot course, be it from the fairway or the rough. This Kikuyu rough can be a nightmare to play from, but in some areas it is thinner and more like pine straw – these parts, and even adjoining fairways – offer the best angles in.
Expertise in long iron play is the key, as is comfort putting on these rapid Poa Annua surfaces.
As for correlating courses, Riviera has the look of Augusta about it and, to some extent, plays like it too with hard, fast, bouncy greens requiring a delicate hand whether approaching, chipping or putting. The sight lines off the tee are similar too, and it’s certainly an angle that could give our draft a unique edge.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational
Top Tier Pick:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 116.8, GPFP: 137.86 Salary: $11,600)
The requirement for quality iron play from fairway or rough this week immediately brings to mind Rory McIlroy.
Of course, you can make a case for many at the top of the market, but Rory has that X Factor that might just separate him from the field come Sunday.
His driving may give an edge too if he can find fairways where desired, because on some holes finding the short stuff is absolutely necessary.
A decent wedge game should also keep him in the hunt, and if Rory finds anything approaching some form with the putter then he will surely be right in the mix.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2nd
- Scoring Average – 2nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Tony Finau (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 81.6, GPFP: 102.03 Salary: $9,100)
There are plenty of second-tier players on the radar for this pick.
Cases can easily be made for Bubba, Hideki, Cantlay and a staggeringly affordable Justin Rose, but we were really impressed by Tony Finau at the Phoenix Open and bar from some questionable decision-making when closing in on victory he played supremely well.
The difference, as is often the case, is that Finau seems to have found a putting stroke that works for him, and when that is combined with his ball-striking yields results.
He’s another who thrives with a long iron in hand or in rescuing the situation around the greens, and finishing second here in 2018 gives the clue that he could finally end that PGA TOUR title drought.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 12th
- Birdie Average – 21st
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Kevin Na (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 87.95 Salary: $7,600)
For a player who has turned himself into a relatively prolific winner of late, it is a surprise to see Kevin Na chalked up at such throwaway prices.
A winner of the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Shriners within the last eight months or so, Na also won the Greenbrier in the autumn of 2018 – a record that most in the game would happily give their right arm for.
Three top-five finishes at Riviera and another top-10 into the bargain thicken the plot yet further, and with current form and course history in the bank Na is clearly of interest.
Having played some good golf at Pebble Beach, he is firmly on the radar.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 4th
- SG: Approach – 61st
- Scoring Average – 66th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 70.8, GPFP: 56.66 Salary: $7,300)
One day, we might look back on the day that we could get Vegas odds of 100/1 and a DK pricing of $7,300 on Joaquin Niemann and laugh.
The Chilean looks to have the profile of a multiple-time winner on the PGA TOUR and perhaps even that of a major champion with his classy ball-striking, and he looks certain to kick on and win again.
He’s sneaky long too, and fits the bill of a player who might enjoy some success a Riviera with his ability to hit accurate approaches from 150 yards and further.
And then, like many others in the pro game, we simply have to sit and wait for a hot streak with the putter!
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
- Scoring Average – 36th
- Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 43rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Adam Hadwin (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 76.4, GPFP: 75.60 Salary: $7,200)
After a decent enough return to action at the Phoenix Open, Adam Hadwin disappointed at Pebble Beach and so he will appreciate heading inland to less windy climes.
Riviera is a golf course that should reward the Canadian at his best, who can play some sublime approach shots when feeling good about his game.
If we can forgive last year’s 75th place finish, Hadwin’s record at this layout reads 6-34-16-22, and that is absolute confirmation that this stretch suits his eye.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
- Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 24th
- SG: Putting – 38th
Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational
Branden Grace (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 61.6, GPFP: 64.70 Salary: $7,500)
The good times have returned for Branden Grace.
T3 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, he followed up by winning his home South African Open. And the momentum continued, with another top-20 in the desert on the European Tour followed by T9 at the Phoenix Open.
A missed cut at Pebble Beach halted the run but we don’t have to read too much into that: pro-am golf isn’t for everyone, and of course there was something of a draw bias in play as the wind picked up over the weekend.
Riviera looks like a classic South African golf course, Kikuyu grass is native to South Africa and so Grace should feel right at home in the Pacific Palisades.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 18th
- Greens in Regulation – 28th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational
Cameron Smith (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 76.3, GPFP: 61.06 Salary: $7,500)
He is a scrambler and a grinder, and already Cameron Smith has shown a penchant for life at Riviera with four made cuts and a best of T6.
Like many Aussies, Smith has great hands and is happy playing a number of different styles of chip shot into fast greens, a skill that can come in very handy at this stretch.
There are still holes in his game, but the 26-year-old is at his best when hitting long approaches and making magic happen when he does miss the green.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 9th
- Birdie Average – 19th
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 39th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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