Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Mayakoba Golf Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Mayakoba Golf Classic Fantasy Preview
After a week off following the Asian Swing, the PGA TOUR nears a return to its spiritual home in the US, but first we have a stop-off in Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
Rory McIlroy signed off the Asian jaunt with victory in the WGC-HSBC Champions last time out, just about seeing off the threat of ‘home’ favorite Xander Schauffele, whose mother is from Taiwan.
And in the alternate event of the same week, Brendon Todd completed an emotional return to the big time with his win at the Bermuda Championship. The Byron Nelson winner of 2014 lost his way so badly that he had missed 37 of his last 40 cuts in 2017 and ’18, largely due to the yips, but the 34-year-old found inspiration from somewhere to get himself back into the winner’s circle.
For guys like Rory this great sport comes easy. For Todd and co, the struggle is real and ongoing but, occasionally enough, worth the effort!
We’ve now got a run of events which will see us heading back to the States for the RSM Classic next week, followed by the World Cup of Golf, the Hero World Challenge and the Presidents Cup, before the players take a week earned break over Christmas and the new year period.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we came oh so close to picking our 5th winner out of 8 events this fall season!
Despite, our top guy Xander falling short to Rory in a playoff, we still managed top pick up two players who finished T8 or better.
The Mayakoba Golf Classic Field
This is one of the last few chances to tee it up in a traditional golf event in 2019, and so it’s a tad disappointing that so few of the sport’s big names will be taking the opportunity.
The betting market is led by defending champion Matt Kuchar, Jason Day and Tony Finau, which offers its own explanation, with the home charge led by Abraham Ancer.
Day, Finau, Adam Hadwin and Joaquin Niemann will be looking to find – or maintain – some form ahead of the Presidents Cup, while Pat Perez and Graeme McDowell will be looking to double up in this event by getting their hands back on the trophy.
And how’s this for a story – Chris Kirk makes his second start since a return from battling a very public alcohol problem.
This Week’s Course Preview
The bread and butter of the PGA TOUR are the greenbelt parkland courses we have come to know and love, but it’s always refreshing to take a trip to short, coastal tracks where a different set of skills are required.
It’s good news for DFS gamers, who have a strong profile to work with, and its good news for the Tour’s grinders and plodders who can really come to the fore at El Camaleon.
Measuring 6,987 yards for its Par of 71, you might think that this layout, found in Playa del Carmen, can be overpowered, but that’s not strictly true: the rough tends to be thick and juicy, and the fairways are tighter than the norm as well. With some tree-lined holes, driving accuracy is worth plenty this week.
Visually stunning, El Camaleon isn’t too demanding on the players either with winning scores tickling the -20 mark, and a move in the calendar to November has helped to soften the track and make it all the easier.
The layout was designed by Greg Norman, and he must have been in a good mood when he drew up the plans because other than the afore-mentioned rough, the wind is the only real defense. And as we will see in the forecast, that might not be a huge factor this week.
Another factor to consider is the small greens, which are Sea Isle Paspalum. This will be a new strain of grass for many in the field, and because of the humidity and softness these don’t run particularly quick. So, there’s a real premium on some high-quality approach play.
The fairways, which are of an average size, and the smaller-than-average greens are Sea Isle Paspalum, and the putting surfaces don’t particularly run fast given the humidity in the area.
There’s a fantastic opportunity to land a decent paycheck and some handy FedEx Cup points this week….who will take the opportunity?
Weather Forecast for Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
It looks set to be a rather a-typical week in Playa del Carmen.
Normally home to beautiful warm sunshine, there is a lot of rain in the predictions which could, mercifully, clear up in time for the weekend.
So there’s a clearer picture for Saturday and Sunday, where temperatures could reach 82°F.
Surprisingly, the wind seems set to be down too, with a breeze of 7-11 mph expected.
Last Year’s Results for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
There was a slice of history at this event last year, when Matt Kuchar ended a title drought of Brendon Todd proportions with a one-shot victory.
Starting like a train, Kooch was sitting on -14 at the halfway stage and extended his lead to four shots heading into the final round.
But getting over the line is always difficult, no matter how experienced you are, and a pair of bogeys on the back nine Sunday opened the door for others.
Most prominent was Danny Lee, who fired in a round of 65, but he couldn’t quite do enough to usurp Kuchar, who just about clung on for his win since 2014. He picked up a handsome paycheck, although of course he wasn’t all that keen to share it with his temporary local caddie for the week….
Matt Kuchar Highlights | Round 4 | Mayakoba 2018
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic, Matt Kuchar defended his four-stroke lead, carding a 2-under 69 to get to 22-under for the tournament, one stroke clear of the field, earning his first win in over four years.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Mayakoba Golf Classic this Week
There are two traditional game weeks left for DFS gamers this year, plus the possibility of a bonus at the Hero World Challenge. So let’s really make those bankrolls count!
- PGA $60k Club Twirl: If you’ve a couple of multiples of $44 in your account then why not double or treble up in this lucrative contest, with a top prize of $10k available and the top-25% of players scoring a decent return on their investment.
- PGA $175k Best Ball: One of the main draws this week will be this contest where $50k awaits the winner for just an $8 buy-in. There will be lots of weak entries this week with such a questionable head of the field, so there should be plenty of decent prizes available to discerning gamers.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Talk about shredding up the usual playbook: nine of the last twelve winners of this event have been aged 30 or older.
Okay, so it’s not the kind of stat that is going to impress your friends at the bar, but it is certainly worth baring in mind as we make our draft shortlist this week.
In short, the takeaway point is that the ‘thinkers’ and the plotters have an obvious advantage over inexperienced sorts who can’t alter their game for the test ahead.
This is a less-than-driver course, so the bombers’ advantage is negated, and finding the best angle in to these small greens is the key.
When Patton Kizzire won here in 2017 he found some 75% greens in regulation, which is a tremendous effort given their size, but does go to show the sort of ball-striking that will be required to take care of business.
We can file El Camaleon under the same category as a number of other PGA TOUR regulars. The Sony Open, the Tournament of Champions, the Honda Classic, the CIMB Classic….these are all events played at venues with plenty of similarities to the assignment this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mayakoba Golf Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Top Tier Pick:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 80.5, GPFP: 65.21 Salary: $10,200)
It’s a pretty strange week at the top of the billing.
Looking at the sportsbook odds, at prices of 20/1 or shorter we have two players with just one win between them (Finau and Viktor Hovland), a player returning to the scene of a ‘crime’ who hasn’t played in an age (Kuchar) and in Jason Day a player meandering as he seeks a new permanent caddie. The Aussie hasn’t finished inside the top-20 anywhere since the Travelers Championship.
So it might just pay to be contrary this week, and Billy Horschel is a trademark contrarian’s pick.
It’s not that he isn’t a classy operator of course, it’s just that he perhaps hasn’t achieved all that his ability suggests he should.
However, he has been playing excellent golf for a while now. Delete a missed cut at the British Open and a lowly finish at the CJ Cup, and Horschel has delivered ten top-25 finishes in his last 14 starts – five of them top-10s.
As such, we expect a breakthrough back into the winner’s circle if his form holds, especially for a player who is among the classiest of iron stripers around on his day.
A proven wind player who has performed at correlating courses for the RBC Heritage and RSM Classic, Horschel could be a savvy top-tier pick at a relatively budget price this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 16th
- Scrambling – 59th
- Greens in Regulation – 66th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Aaron Wise (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 78.2, GPFP: 62.54 Salary: $9,400)
The look and feel of Mayakoba should suit Wise to a tee this week.
His sole win on the PGA TOUR came at Trinity Forest, the new home of the AT&T Byron Nelson, which has an exposed feel to it, and he has also played well at Pebble Beach.
Wind? No problem. Wise has finished T3 at the Louisiana Open in the past, and was T10 here 12 months ago.
It should come as no surprise that he was in the mix in Bermuda a couple of weeks ago, and it would certainly appear that Wise is approaching something like his best form.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 3rd
- Greens in Regulation – 38th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 56th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 32/1, FPPG: 61.1, GPFP: 48.86 Salary: $9,200)
A motivated, premium ball-striker is like goldust this week, and it is hard to leave Abraham Ancer out of our draft picks.
He’s spoken of his pride at being the first Mexican to play in the Presidents Cup, and ow his place in the line-up is assured we can expect a more relaxed Ancer to thrive at a course he has finished 21-9 at in his last pair of starts.
His form has been sketchy this season, to be honest, but a T4 at the WGC-HSBC Champions has righted recent wrongs and got him back on track.
Solo second at the Travelers Championship, Ancer is getting closer to that maiden PGA TOUR win, and it’s as likely to come this week as it is anywhere else.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 8th
- Driving Accuracy – 10th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th
Mid-Tier Pick #3:
Ryan Armour (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.3, GPFP: 43.44 Salary: $7,200)
Like a few other players on the radar this week, Armour is one that is well worth backing when conditions suit.
And it’s a simple puzzle to fathom out for the world number 182, who is one of the shortest but most accurate strikers of a golf ball around.
Those attributes will be rewarded at El Camaleon, and it’s not a surprise to learn that one of his best career pay days came here back in 2007.
Armour is a fantastic wind player who has routinely played well in Texas and on the coasts of Florida and California, and on tracks where his lack of length isn’t punished he should thrive.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 5th
- Greens in Regulation – 44th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 55th
Low-Tier Pick:
Fabian Gomez (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 72.1, GPFP: 57.68 Salary: $6,800)
A former winner at the correlating course of Waialae, Gomez is firmly on the radar this week.
He’s won in Louisiana too, so any winds in Playa del Carmen won’t be an issue, ad a decent enough formline gives his supporters plenty of reasons to be cheerful.
A fairly dismal 2019 was brought right back on track with a solo second finish in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and a mixed bag of showings since was headlined by solo seventh at the Bermuda Championship.
The form is there, the conditions are perfect….there’s no reason why Gomez can’t go well in Mexico.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th
- Scrambling – 21st
- Scoring Average – 47th
Sleeper Pick for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Dylan Frittelli (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 74.3, GPFP: 59.45 Salary: $8,000)
It’s been an excellent few months for Frittelli, who has won his first PGA TOUR title at the John Deere Classic and got off to an excellent start in the new season, ranking inside the top-10 of all the players for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
That’s come about from top-10s from the Sanderson Farms and Safeway Open, and T22 last time out at the ZOZO Championship.
This will be his first start at El Camaleon, but there’s no reason why it won’t suit given that he’s won before at a resort course in the European Tour’s Mauritius Open and played well in breezy conditions on the Links and in the desert.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee to Green – 9th
- Greens in Regulation – 51st
- Total Driving – 56th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
Zhang Xinjun (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 74.9, GPFP: 59.94 Salary: $7,300)
While a number of Korn Ferry Tour graduates have already made their presence felt on the PGA TOUR this season, we’re still waiting to see the very best from Zhang Xinjun.
But he is going nicely under the radar, and his finishes so far – T4 at the Houston Open, T7 at the Safeway Open, T16 at the Shriners – suggest that something big is on the horizon.
He even showed glimpses of quality in his homeland at the WGC-HSBC Champions, opening with a round of 68 to sit T10 in a high-quality field.
Xinjun has plenty of pedigree, winning twice on the KF Tour last season and racking up some really nice relevant finishes besides: solo second at the exposed Panama Championship, plus T3 at the windy Louisiana and Knoxville Opens.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
- SG: Approach – 16th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 24th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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