Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview
Heading into the final round of the PGA Championship, the top-five on the leaderboard had just one PGA TOUR title to their collective name.
So could this bunch of maidens, for the most part, convert their first win on one of the biggest stages in golf?
Most naysayers would suggest not, and so it proved.
Justin Thomas, one of the most prolific winners in the sport and already a PGA Championship victor, overcame a nine-shot deficit on Sunday to book his place in a play-off against Will Zalatoris, and then his class under pressure told as he prevailed in the three-hole shootout.
On a chaotic final day, plenty had chances to land that elusive PGA TOUR title, but all let glory slip through the victors – not least Mito Pereira, the long-time leader whose drive on the 72nd hole was indicative of a player un unchartered territory. The Chilean made a hash of his recovery shot after taking a drop too, and his hopes came to an end.
Zalatoris hadn’t been at his best either, but he just about hung in there to once again showcase his major credentials. But in the playoff, he displayed all the hallmarks of nerves – tense jaw, darting eyes, a lack of fluidity in his stroke – and so it was left for Thomas, powered by an outstanding drive onto the green at the second extra hole, to take care of business.
Like time itself, the PGA TOUR stands still for no man, and marches onwards to the Charles Schwab Challenge in Texas this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Overall not a bad week last week, despite our alternate sleeper pick Mito Pereira falling to T3 after a disappointing water ball on the 72nd hole.
Mito provided DFS rosters some serious points despite the mental error, and along with him, we made 6 of 7 cuts with our main picks including a T3, T5, and two T13s, one of which was our Top Pick Xander Schaufelle.
Charles Schwab Challenge Field
Thomas, Zalatoris and Pereira are in-line for an immediate reunion at Colonial Country Club – all are scheduled to play, pending a late withdrawal of course.
They will be joined in Fort Worth by world number one Scottie Scheffler, major victor Collin Morikawa and home Texas favorite Jordan Spieth, while defending champion Jason Kokrak is also in town.
Bryson DeChambeau will give it another go – he was a late WD from the PGA Championship after complaining of pain in his wrist, while the likes of Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland and Abraham Ancer are also on the entry list.
The small field is rounded out by a number of sponsor exemptions and two of the finest amateurs in the world, Tyler Strafaci and James Piot.
This Week’s Course Preview
First opened in 1936, Colonial Country Club has stood the test of time.
Similarly to Southern Hills last week, Colonial was designed by Perry Maxwell and is due an overhaul by Gil Hanse – that has been postponed until 2023. But even so, this is a fantastic golf course that offers a sterling test of ball striking.
Measuring 7,204 yards for its Par 70, the dense rough and right fairways give Colonial a claustrophobic feel, and the fact that around a dozen of the holes could be considered doglegs also adds to the complexity.
Scores can be made but you’ll have to break the back of your round on the Par 4s, with just two Par 5s to play with. And you’ll need to play the stretch of holes from three through five – known as the ‘Horrible Horseshoe’ – in solid fashion too. These once again played over par in 2021, with a birdie-to-bogey (or worse) ratio of around 1:4.
With water in play on six holes, more than 80 bunkers and smaller-than-average Bentgrass greens, you can see why Hogan’s Alley – so-called because Ben Hogan won five times here during his career – is considered one of the premier layouts on the PGA TOUR rotation.
Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX
Most of the interesting weather in Fort Worth this week will come before a ball has even been hit.
Thunderstorms and rain showers are in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, and it will be interesting to see what ramifications that has – or doesn’t have – on the softness of the course.
Otherwise, Thursday and Friday look warm and sunny, with top temperatures of around 89˚F and wind speeds in the single digits.
As for the weekend, the most intriguing part of the predictions is the wind speed – in the forecast we have seen, a breeze as fast as 21 mph has been mooted.
Last Year’s Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge
With the Texan crowd roaring him on, Jordan Spieth showed a rare lack of composure under pressure in the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He was the favorite to convert another victory in the Lonestar State, but two late bogeys – including an errant approach that landed in the drink on the 72nd hole – ended his and the patrons’ hopes of a hometown champion.
Instead it was Jason Kokrak who kept his cool, and a final round of level par – with five birdies and as many bogeys on his card – was solid enough to compile a winning score of -14….two shots clear of Spieth.
There was a four-way tie in third place, with Charley Hoffman – courtesy of a closing 65 – joining Ian Poulter, Sebastian Munoz and Patton Kizzire.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Charles Schwab Challenge this Week
Let’s not fall into the trap of going rogue a week after a major, because with such a rich history at Colonial – and a very specific type of player to target in your draft – this is an excellent week to make your edge on more casual gamers count.
- PGA $350k Drive the Green: When we talk about ‘casual’ gamers, we mean those guys and gals with a passing interest in golf that probably play other DFS sports more religiously. They’re entering the lower-budget contests, so this $5 game – with a top prize of $50k – is an ideal target.
- PGA $75k Birdie: Because there are some interesting permutations this week (and, in truth, we could have drafted at least three different line-ups with confidence), there’s scope for a multi-entry contest to be attacked, and to keep a lid on our expenditure and take on the casuals we can opt in to this $3 affair, which features a top prize of $7,500.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Charles Schwab Challenge
It’s a week on the PGA TOUR where strategy and straight shooting could outweigh the need for bombs and birdies.
The likes of Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson have all won here in recent memory, and so straight off the bat you get a feel for the kind of players that can thrive at Colonial.
Success is not exclusive to the shorter hitters, but accuracy is very much the order of the day – Kokrak and Daniel Berger, the 2020 champion, drove the ball further but still ranked comfortably inside the top-20 for the week in terms of fairways found.
These Bentgrass greens are typically easier to hold than you might think given that they are quite small, and making birdies on the Par 4s is key – therefore, quality approaches in the 125-175 yard range is key to set up a birdie chance rather than a scramble for par.
So hitting fairways and GIR is absolutely paramount at Colonial, allied to smart Bentgrass putting.
In terms of correlating courses, maybe TPC Potomac – the new home of the Wells Fargo Championship – will hold up. That’s a short Par 70 with penal rough and Bentgrass greens, while TPC Southwind (WGC St Jude) and TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) also share many similar characteristics.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jordan Spieth (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 73.7, GPFP: 60.46 Salary: $10,400)
Given that he’s long and erratic off the tee, playing at short Par 70 tracks actually helps Jordan Spieth… he has no choice but to sheathe the big stick at times.
Given that he’s an elite iron player, opportunities to play out of the short grass – especially into small greens, where his edge is maximized – are always welcome, and so it’s no big shock that Spieth has found Colonial to be a happy hunting ground (he hasn’t missed a cut in nine visits, won here in 2016 and recorded six other top-10 finishes).
If you looked specifically at form in Texas in the past five years, it’s highly doubtful that anybody has fared better than Spieth in the Lonestar State – he’s the pick of the bunch this week for our money.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 13th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 10th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 65.3, GPFP: 52.22 Salary: $9,300)
In the past, we’ve found it hard to get an accurate read on Abraham Ancer.
He seems to play badly when we expect him to do well and vice versa, but hopefully this will finally be the week where all of our stars align.
Why? Because he tends to be accurate off the tee wherever he goes, and his ball striking was in fine fettle at the PGA Championship – he ranked 12th and 13th for Strokes Gained: Approach and Off-the-Tee respectively against high grade opposition.
Born and raised in Texas, Ancer has also won at one of our correlating courses (TPC Southwind), and back-to-back T14s at Colonial suggest this is a venue he enjoys.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 3rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 43rd
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 26th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Brian Harman (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 61.6, GPFP: 54.82 Salary: $7,800)
With eight straight cuts made, including three top-10s and a lowest finish of T31, Brian Harman clearly knows his way around Colonial Country Club.
But don’t think this is a pick straight out of the course form drawer, because Harman has shown plenty of quality in his ball-striking lately to warrant selection regardless.
That stripe-show at TPC Potomac – in conditions not all too dissimilar to Colonial – delivered a top-10 finish to Harman backers, and he followed that up with T34 at the PGA Championship….ranking 15th for SG: Approach in a truly world-class field.
There is plenty to like about the left-hander’s chances, then.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 10th
- Driving Accuracy – 11th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 79th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Kevin Kisner (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.8, GPFP: 57.79 Salary: $7,400)
It’s been a strange time for Kevin Kisner, whose formline arguably looks worse on paper than it truly is.
Missed cuts at the PGA Championship and Byron Nelson will have stung, but those are long golf courses that don’t exactly play to his strengths. A weekend missed at the RBC Heritage will have hurt more, in some regards, given that he routinely plays well in similar conditions to those at Harbour Town.
But all is not lost, because back in short Par 70 fare where shot-shaping and grinding out GIR is key, Kisner will surely come into his own once more – a winner here in 2017, with two other top-10 finishes, he certainly knows Colonial well enough.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 13th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 32nd
- Greens in Regulation – 62nd
Low-Tier Pick:
Lucas Glover (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 61.9, GPFP: 64.97 Salary: $6,700)
There was a very handy T23 from Lucas Glover at the PGA Championship, where he ranked an excellent fourth for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Wily veterans tend to do well at Colonial, and given that he was T8 here in 2021 we have to assume that Glover has a fondness for the layout too.
And it’s easy to see why, as his precise ball striking will get full value without being punished for a relative lack of length. As ever with Glover, we need that flat stick to behave, but he had some decent putting rounds on the Bentgrass greens of Southern Hills, so here’s hoping.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 14th
- Greens in Regulation – 17th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 42nd
Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge
Aaron Rai (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.0, GPFP: 46.40 Salary: $7,200)
One of the correlating courses we have referred to earlier in this preview is that of TPC Southwind, a gnarly, doglegging Par 70 in Tennessee with small greens and where the wind is often in play.
Host to the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, that event attracts a quality field year after year, and it was interesting to see Aaron Rai finish T26 there back in August.
It was a noteworthy effort in such illustrious company, and the Brit continues to impress with his fairway finding and metronomic GIR returns.
Top 30s at the Texas Open and Mexico Open show that form is close at hand for Rai, and anything similar to that here marks him out as a value sleeper play.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 26th
- Greens in Regulation – 33rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 62nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge
James Hahn (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 46.5, GPFP: 59.48 Salary: $7,000)
Back to back top-10s on the PGA TOUR suggest that James Hahn is under-appreciated by the salary-makers here.
His ball-striking at the latter of those, the AT&T Byron Nelson, was outstanding, and a round of 61 at TPC Craig Ranch indicative of a player feeling wholly confident about their work.
A poor season so far has been righted to some tune in recent weeks, and Hahn’s improved play – which has coincided with the switch to Bentgrass greens as well – suggests he has to be in our draft thoughts at Colonial….regardless of his poor course form.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 150-175 yards (rough) – 15th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 53rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 62nd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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