Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview

If you didn’t already know it, we’re watching an all-time great play out their career in front of our very eyes.

Scottie Scheffler is halfway to the career grand slam at the age of 28 having won the PGA Championship on Sunday, and while the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth have found that hard to get over the line, you sense that the Texan is a different animal entirely.

Scheffler joins Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as the only three players in the post-war era to win three majors and 15 PGA TOUR titles before the age of 29, which is proof positive that – should he stay free of injuries and distractions, the world number one is on course to join the very best to have ever picked up a club.

The PGA Championship was bonkers, really, with a host of big names finishing down the leaderboard or missing the cut entirely, while a remarkable nine players were able to rack up their first ever major top ten.

A rain-pummeled Quail Hollow struggled to deliver major-worthy action, but Scheffler didn’t care. Aside from a late run from Jon Rahm, who got right into contention before making a mess of his final four holes, it was all surprisingly easy for the best in the business.

The field for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge had better hope and pray that there’s some kind of hangover for Scheffler, who has finished T2 twice and T3 at the Colonial Country Club already.

Unfinished business? You better believe it.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we finished up at Quail Hollow with two T2 finishers in English and DeChambeau.  Other than that, it wasn’t much of an impressive week for us to be honest.   

Most of the studs missed the cut and if you didn’t have Scottie along with Bryson, you weren’t going to see much cash.

Onward and upward.

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The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Field

Scottie headlines a field in which he’ll be joined by Hideki Matsuyama as the only other OWGR top-ten star heading to Fort Worth.

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Maverick McNealy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Harris English, whose 65 was the best round of the day on Sunday, are the OWGR top-20 contingent, although enforced time away from the sport has possibly cost a pair of other Charles Schwab participants – Daniel Berger and Jordan Spieth – from membership of that particular club.  

Davis Riley, the defending champion, will be joined in Fort Worth by a handful of other players that finished inside the top-ten at Quail Hollow, such as J.T. Poston, Jhonattan Vegas, Si-Woo Kim, and Ben Griffin.

This Week’s Course Preview

You’ve no doubt heard a golf course described as a ‘second shot’ layout, but Colonial is a second-and-third shot course. 

That’s because these greens are so hard to hold. Riley found 68% of GIR last year and still ranked sixth in the field for that metric, so evidently greens are missed and a reliable chipping and rescue game on that third shot is invaluable.

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Don’t get too bogged down in what the players can do off the tee, because the nature of Colonial is such that plenty will club down instead of taking driver – you can miss the short grass, but you’d better miss in the right places given the nature of these winding holes.

So wedge and short iron play is the difference-maker this week, as is confidence around the greens, while research can be extended to include a couple of useful correlations.

Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage), and Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament) continue to deliver leaderboards that mesh nicely with those at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

We should be set for a fine week in Forth Worth… until Sunday comes around, that is.

It’s hot, sunny, and looks set to be a mostly rain-free start to proceedings Thursday through Saturday, with the mercury hitting 89 degrees. Just be sure to watch out for a potential draw bias for the opening two rounds, with the wind potentially picking up on Friday.

And then we get to Sunday. We’re writing this preview days in advance, of course, but the early forecast is suggesting the possibility of a chaotic day, weather wise, with heavy thunderstorms and winds of 15mph or higher.

Keep your eyes peeled on the forecast nearer the time for more details…

FORT WORTH WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

With a round to play at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, pre-tournament 300/1 shot Davis Riley was four shots clear of the winning machine, Scottie Scheffler, in second. Even with that healthy margin, most still expected Scottie to find a way to win yet another title… but Riley, well, he was not for turning in his quest for a maiden singles PGA TOUR title.

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Par at the easy opening Par 5, followed by a bogey at the second, would have done little to settle Riley’s nerves. But, perhaps incredulously, his playing partner Scheffler failed to make a single birdie on the front nine; and in act played it in +2. Riley finished his front nine in 35 strokes – level par – to extend his advantage to six.

When Scheffler bogeyed the tenth, that was pretty much all she wrote. Riley nudged and nurdled his way around an unforgiving Colonial, finishing even par for his round but, more importantly, five clear of Scottie and Keegan Bradley.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

This is one of those ‘do we draft Scottie or don’t we?’ weeks, and with a case to be made either way perhaps playing multi-entry contests, with some lineups featuring Scheffler and some not, is the smart way to play it.

• GOLF TOUR $250k Drive the Green: This is one of the most appealing multi-entry contests on account of that huge prize pool, which incorporates a top prize of $50k. At $5 a go, it’s viable to create a few different rosters here.
• GOLF TOUR $30k Tee-to-Green: If your preference is for smaller field contests, this $6 entry game allows you to challenge for a $5k top prize in a game with just 5,882 teams eligible – it’s multi entry, too.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

You’ve no doubt heard a golf course described as a ‘second shot’ layout, but Colonial is a second-and-third shot course. 

That’s because these greens are so hard to hold. Riley found 68% of GIR last year and still ranked sixth in the field for that metric, so evidently greens are missed and a reliable chipping and rescue game on that third shot is invaluable.

Don’t get too bogged down in what the players can do off the tee, because the nature of Colonial is such that plenty will club down instead of taking driver – you can miss the short grass, but you’d better miss in the right places given the nature of these winding holes.

So wedge and short iron play is the difference-maker this week, as is confidence around the greens, while research can be extended to include a couple of useful correlations. Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage), and Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament) continue to deliver leaderboards that mesh nicely with those at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Daniel Berger (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 76.0, Salary: $9,900)

Make no bones about it: Scottie Scheffler is by far and away the most likely winner this week, and he has won the tournament after a major before by way of proof. But at $13,700, we don’t have much room for manoeuvre our draft in what is a mostly top-heavy field, and so we have to seek out value elsewhere.

And we find it in the shape of Daniel Berger, who’s playing some of the very best golf of his career right now, and for whom a win on the PGA TOUR seems likely this summer. That will likely come at a positional golf course like Colonial, where Berger handily won in 2020, and so all the clues are there for a strong week from a player who will still have a Ryder Cup place on his radar. Berger’s ball-striking is generally exceptional, he’s tidy round the greens, and he is generally putt-positive on the Bentgrass greens of Colonial.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 9th
• Scrambling – 13th
• SG: Approach – 15th

Top Tier Pick #2

Aaron Rai (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 71.4, Salary: $9,100)

Cumulatively, only Harris English and Joaquin Niemann gained more strokes on approach than Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship.

The Brit’s game was in fine shape at Quail Hollow, and his T19 finish is better than it seems given that his style is short and accurate, rather than long and bombing.

One of the tidiest drivers in world golf, Rai is – as proven at Quail Hollow – classy in the wedge and short iron range. He is a danger to everyone at layouts that suit, as proven by his win at the Wyndham Championship, so let’s back the Brit to parlay his PGA Championship form into another strong showing this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 1st
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 6th
• SG: Approach – 20th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Si Woo Kim (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 68.2, Salary: $8,900)

It’s almost bizarre how poor Si Woo’s record is at a Colonial layout that should suit him to a tee.

A best of T29 here has been joined by a host of missed cuts and lowly finishes, but we have no doubt that the Korean has the skillset to thrive at the property. He is a winner at the correlating Waialae and TPC Sawgrass, has also won at the short and tight Sedgefield, and lost in a playoff at another correlating venue, Harbour Town.

Si Woo was a regular feature on the top page of the leaderboard at the PGA Championship, despite lacking the length typically required there, which shows just how good the other elements of his game were.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 14th
• Driving Accuracy – 30th
• SG: Approach – 45th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Ryan Gerard (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 77.1, Salary: $7,900)

Although he’s going about his business quietly, Ryan Gerard is establishing himself as one of the finest young prospects on the PGA TOUR.  The 25-year-old took another leap forward at the PGA Championship, recording his maiden major top-ten finish in a week in which he gained +9.75 strokes on an elite field with his ball-striking.

Gerard has quality in all departments, and when he brings it all together in the same week he will contend – as he did when solo second at the Texas Open, and when sitting T2 at halfway at the Houston Open. He’s another that looks to be a potential PGA TOUR winner this summer… will it come this week at Colonial?

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 9th
• SG: Approach – 26th
• SG: Putting – 30th

Low-Tier Pick

Kevin Yu (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 68.0, Salary: $7,400)

A world-class operator in the wedge and short iron range, can Kevin Yu piece together the other elements of his game this week?

Most encouraging is that he has gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last outings, which is a rarity indeed for a player for whom the flatstick is often an issue. If he figures that club out, he can become one of the best players in the world. 

One step at a time though, as winning a second PGA TOUR title will be next on the agenda. Yu’s elite ball-striking will give him a shot at Colonial… if his short game behaves, we could have a real bargain on our hands.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 9th
• SG: Approach – 14th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 34th

Sleeper Pick for The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

Chris Kirk (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.4, Salary: $7,200)

Hardly the sort of player to make headlines, Chris Kirk is the ideal pick in the sleeper price range – particularly at a course he loves. A winner here in 2015, Kirk has also recorded a T5 and five other top-20 finishes, which confirms the notion that Colonial is a layout that enables him to get the best from his game. 

Aside from missed cuts at The Masters and the Texas Open, Kirk has gained strokes on the field on approach in his last six starts, will hit plenty of fairways, and – historically – loves these Bentgrass greens.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 51st
• Greens in Regulation – 57th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 66th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

Adam Schenk (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 49.4, Salary: $6,500)

At this price, it’s surely worth taking a chance on a player that absolutely loves his golf at Colonial. Adam Schenk lost in a playoff here in 2023, but that only scratches the surface for somebody that has also fired rounds of 66 (twice) and 67 (twice) in his prior three visits; each of which comfortably beat the scoring average for that particular day.

It’s worth revisiting that course form because he finished T5 in his penultimate start at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, gaining strokes on the field in all four major SG departments. His overall formline may be poor, but Schenk surely has enough confidence from that T5 in Texas to go with his excellent record at Colonial… at $6,500, it will be fun finding out, anyway.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100+ Yards – 30th
• Proximity to Hole – 31st
• Putts Per Round – 58th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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