Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The 2025 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2025 PGA Championship

2025 PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

He was something of a slow-burner on the PGA TOUR, but Sepp Straka is more than making up for lost time now.

The Austrian only won twice on the TOUR in his opening 160 outings; that’s still a decent return, in the grand scheme of things.

But Straka has now won two PGA TOUR titles in his last 12 starts, adding the Truist Championship on Sunday to the American Express trophy that he hoisted back in January.

It looked as though he was going to be pushed all the way by Shane Lowry, with the pair level on -16 with just three holes to play. But the Irishman made errors at 16 and 18, which allowed Straka to retain his superiority at the top of the leaderboard with a trio of pars.

When the 32-year-old won his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Cognizant Classic back in 2022, he was ranked 176 in the world. Now, three wins later, he’s up to nine. Slow and steady can still win the race in the fast-paced world of modern golf…

Meanwhile, a thrilling finale at the alternate event, the Myrtle Beach Classic, saw three players locked in a playoff: Ryan Fox, Mackenzie Hughes, and Harry Higgs. And it was Fix who would prevail in stunning fashion, chipping in from off the green on the first extra hole to land his maiden PGA TOUR win.

Fix has played his way into the second major of the year: the PGA Championship, which gets underway on Thursday at the Quail Hollow Club.

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we ran with Xander as our top dog and the 2024 PGA Champ ended up T11 out in Philly (along with other picks Berger and English). 

Our shooting star was Patrick Cantlay who ended up in T4 on the week.

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The 2025 PGA Championship Field

We’re in major territory this week, so you know what that means: the vast majority of the best golfers on the planet are teeing it up in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Every single member of the OWGR top-50 is here bar Billy Horschel, who announced last week that he is going in for hip surgery and won’t be back in action until the autumn.

The top contingent includes world number one Scottie Scheffler, Quail Hollow specialist Rory McIlroy, and the defending champion Xander Schauffele, who won the 2024 edition of the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Course.

There’s a strong LIV Golf contingent in the field too, as well as a host of former PGA Championship winners of various vintages.

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This Week’s Course Preview

Although it’s not everybody’s cup of tea, the Quail Hollow Club is certainly revered by many a PGA TOUR official.

It was ever-present on the circuit in the 1960s, and has since returned to prominence – hosting the Truist Championship pretty much every year since 2003, as well as the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup.

The chief defense of Quail Hollow is its extraordinary length, with the layout able to play to around 7,600 yards for its Par 71. This week, you’re going to see long Par 3s – the sixth measuring an eye-watering 249 yards, three Par 4s in excess of 500 yards (plus two drivable Par 4s at 344 and 346 yards respectively), and a trio of Par 5s… albeit not that long, at 546, 577, and 592 yards.

So length will surely be a major advantage this week, although hitting bombs with abandon is unlikely to get the job done – according to some that have walked the course recently, the rough has been allowed to grow to around five inches in length.

There’s some thick tree lines too, and the greens – which are overseeded Bermuda – are tiered, contoured, and typically well protected by deep bunkers. Estimates suggest that they will run at a lightning fast 15 on the stimpmeter, weather permitting.

The closing stretch at Quail Hollow is known as the ‘Green Mile’, and those three holes from 16-18 certainly lived up to their harrowing nickname at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship here.

They were the three hardest holes on the real estate, and in numerical order: the sixteenth is a mammoth 529-yard Par 4 that boasts a long approach into a well-protected green, while the seventeenth is the stock-in-trade island green Par 3… although, at 190 yards, the iron shot in is typically much tougher than similar holes at TPC Sawgrass et al.

And the hardest hole of all was the eighteenth, a 494-yard Par 4 with perhaps the narrowest fairway on the premises. Water is in play – hence the high double-bogey count in 2024, while even landing a drive successfully leaves a stiff uphill approach into an undulating, tiered green.

There’s every chance that the Green Mile could condemn our leader to some late misery and pain this week!

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Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC

How do you make an already long course play even longer? You look up to the heavens and perform a rain dance.

And it looks as though tournament officials will get their wish, with rain forecast every day Monday-Wednesday and on Friday and Saturday, too. 

It’s not expected to come down in buckets, but the cumulative effect might just be enough to slow down the surfaces to the point that Quail Hollow becomes one of the longest tracks ever used in a major.

There’s some high temperatures too, with the mercury tipping over at 87 degrees, so with rain in the air and high humidity as well, there’s perhaps a chance of thunderstorms into the bargain.

At least Thursday and Sunday are shaping up better, as far as the early forecast is concerned, with sunny spells and temperatures in the region of 82 degrees.

The wind looks to be consistent enough, with the breeze scaling 9-13mph across the week. The early predictions suggest that Saturday could see the stiffest of the winds blow.

CHARLOTTE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The 2025 PGA Championship

It was off to the Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville, Kentucky for the 2024 PGA Championship, and it was certainly a heavenly jaunt for Xander Schauffele, who landed his maiden major victory.

He took the quick route to success, posting an opening round of 62 to open up a three-shot advantage after just 18 holes of play.

A Friday 68 opened the door to others to join the fray, with Collin Morikawa’s 65 enough to get him within a single shot of Schauffele.

The leader than carded another 68 on Saturday, and so by the time the final round on Sunday got underway, seven players were within three of the co-lead held by Schauffele and Morikawa… chief amongst them were Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, and Shane Lowry.

Morikawa and Lowry fluffed their lines on Sunday, with the door ajar for a fascinating shootout between Schauffele and DeChambeau for the title.

They traded birdies in easier scoring conditions, with DeChambeau remaining bogey-free in a round of 65.

But Schauffele’s pre-round advantage was just enough to see him over the line by a single stroke, as his birdie at the very last hole ensured he remained one clear of Bryson to ensure his first major title.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s The 2025 PGA Championship

With the 130 or so best players in world golf teeing it up, alongside a host of qualifiers and former PGA Championship winners, it’s a fine time for DFS gamers this week.

A major week brings with it more contests and larger prize pools too, so let’s split our action accordingly across a low risk, high reward mega event and a single-entry game.

• GOLF $2.75M Fantasy Millionaire: They don’t much bigger than the Fantasy Millionaire contest, which affords players the opportunity to battle it out for the $1 million top prize from a stake of just $25. Could you land a life-changing payout this week?

• GOLF $50k Albatross: One of the premier single entry contests, for $12 you’ll get to pit your seven-player roster against the rest of the field… with the winner trousering a cool $5k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The 2025 PGA Championship

Often times when it’s a rotational major like the PGA Championship, there’s an element of guesswork as to what profile of player will thrive.

But with a longstanding bank of data to call upon at Quail Hollow, we should – in theory – have the basis for a strong roster build in place.

The nature of this layout requires a strong all-round game from tee-to-green, as well as a sure hand on what will likely be lighting fast greens. But being able to hit the ball a long way is essential: of the 12 players that finished T10 or better at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, nine averaged 300 yards or more off the tee, which chimes with the general theme here.

Shorter hitters can just about get the job done at Quail Hollow, but they are at a considerable disadvantage… and will need to play their very best golf to compete.

Keeping bogeys off the card will be a premium skillset too – we’re not expecting the -17 score with which Rory won the 2024 Wells Fargo this week, and indeed the last time Quail Hollow hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, the toughened conditions meant that only 12 players finished the week under par.

Historically, the layouts that have best correlated with Quail Hollow include Augusta, Riviera and Torrey Pines, which is perhaps no surprise given their concussive length and tree-lined landscape, while both TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill present a similarly challenging tee-to-green experience.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2025 PGA Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2025 PGA Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 81.2, Salary: $11,500)

When we drafted Scottie Scheffler as our top tier pick at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, we knew that we were eating chalk – but that his win probability was sufficiently high to counteract the fact.

At the PGA Championship this week, both casual and regular gamers will have Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the dual chalk, but there is such a strength to this field that we can swerve them… while accepting that both stand a great chance of winning.

But so too does Bryson DeChambeau, and his likely lower ownership – on account of his LIV Golf membership (out of sight, out of mind) – offers us a real chance of a strong winner this week.

He’s got the length, he’s got previous at Quail Hollow, and his status as a two-time major champion – and runner-up at last year’s PGA Championship, which came at the similar Valhalla – confirms Bryson to be one of the best players on the planet.

His last outing? A win on the LIV Golf circuit in South Korea, so DeChambeau is certainly trending in the right direction.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Top Tier Pick #2

Justin Thomas (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 99.4, Salary: $9,900)

Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship the last time it headed to Quail Hollow in 2017. And while his career has experienced peaks and troughs since, J.T. certainly looks to be peaking at the right time now.

His tee-to-green game has rarely left him, but in 2025 he’s armed with greater confidence on the greens – his win at the RBC Heritage in April powered by a sublime flatstick performance.

Thomas caught the eye at the Truist Championship last week, gaining a cumulative +9.27 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, and so everything in his game is looking just right as we continue on into major season.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 5th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 6th
• SG: Putting – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 85.0, Salary: $9,500)

It’s hard to leave Patrick Cantlay out of our roster this week given all the positive signs in his game.

He ranked third in the field for SG: Approach at the Truist Championship, which continued his fine run with iron and wedge in hand, and Cantlay also gained strokes on the field off the tee for a fifth straight outing.

There was a +1.10 gain on the greens, and so the only thing holding Cantlay back at the moment is something of a weakness in his chipping and scrambling. If he can rectify that at Quail Hollow, he can add to his haul of major top-tens… and perhaps even challenge for the trophy.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Davis Thompson (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 68.9, Salary: $7,300)

A strong week with his short game at the Truist Championship sets Davis Thompson up nicely for the trip to Quail Hollow.

He was sharp on and around the greens in Philly, to go with some excellent ball-striking form of late – the best of the bunch coming at the correlating PLAYERS Championship, where Thompson gained over +2.00 strokes on the field per round, on average, on his way to a T10 finish.

With the likes of Bryson, Rory, and Cantlay expected to go well this week, it springs to mind the 2024 U.S. Open played at a fast, long, and tough Pinehurst – Thompson finished T9 that week, and he may well just repeat the feat in North Carolina this week too.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 16th
• Greens in Regulation – 26th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 36th

Low-Tier Pick

 J.J. Spaun (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 69.8, Salary: $6,400)

Only an inspired Rory McIlroy prevented J.J. Spaun from winning the PLAYERS Championship in March.

That offers a glimpse of what he is capable of, in a season in which he has also finished in second place at the Cognizant Classic and solo third at the Sony Open.

Spaun has a high performance ceiling, and while he hasn’t always shown that in majors, you wonder if that sublime showing at TPC Sawgrass – with the eyes of the golfing world upon him – will be the catalyst for him to kick on a gear.

He was T17 at the Truist Championship last week, where his ball striking and putting seemed to be in fine fettle.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 17th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 20th

Sleeper Pick for The 2025 PGA Championship

Keith Mitchell (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 71.8, Salary: $6,200)

You wouldn’t necessarily bet on Keith Mitchell to win the PGA Championship – he has the talent, but seems to get in his own way too often to be a prolific winner.

But at $6,200, we’re getting a guy who has been the first-round leader three times in the past two months – helpful in making the cut, and a guy who led the way at the Truist Championship for a good chunk of the action.

Mitchell is long, a rock solid tee-to-green campaigner, and has previous at Quail Hollow, and while he has that self-destructive tendency, a salary of $6,200 feels like something of a gift this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 7th
• Driving Distance – 11th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2025 PGA Championship

Gary Woodland (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 63.4, Salary: $5,800)

Although he was not without fault at the Truist Championship, Gary Woodland’s cumulative SG: Approach gain on the field of +5.50 reveals how well his iron and wedge play is going at the minute.

It was a similar story at the Houston Open, where he finished T2, while at the Texas Open his driving was authoritative to say the least.

There’s the usual short game caveats with Woodland, but in long, technical tests – like that provided by Quail Hollow – he can thrive. Woodland sat T7 here with a round to play in the 2017 PGA Championship, while two other top-fives in the Wells Fargo help to set the scene.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 9th
• SG: Approach – 37th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 40th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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