Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Genesis Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Genesis Invitational  

Genesis Invitational Fantasy Preview

The closing stretch of holes at TPC Scottsdale are always good for some Sunday drama.

Often it’s a rush of blood in front of the raucous patrons on the sixteenth hole, or a loose drive at the drivable seventeenth. But for Nick Taylor, it was where he found his eye of the tiger.

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One of our sleeper picks for the week came alive at the business end, birdieing 15, 16 and 18 to force a playoff with surprise package Charley Hoffman. And even with the Super Bowl underway, few were diverting their eyes from the extra holes.

Taylor, as has been customary of him when in contention, was ‘nails’ under pressure, birdieing both playoff holes to secure a fourth PGA TOUR title. In a year in which the Presidents Cup returns to Canada, it’s no coincidence that a proud Canadian – a winner of his home open in 2023 – has upped his levels accordingly so far in 2024.

After a week of chaotic weather and even more madcap antics from some of the patrons at the venue, the players will no doubt be hoping for a rather more serene week in the Pacific Palisades for this week’s Genesis Invitational.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Winner, winner!  Nick Taylor was our guy in the SLEEPER PICK slot last week, and that selection paid off big time.

It’s nice to grab a winner this early in the season, especially a guy like Taylor who was priced super low and had some incredible odds behind him. 

In total, we missed only two cuts out of our total of twelve picks last week and had three solid Top 10 finishes. 

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2024 Genesis Invitational Field

A Signature Event with a limited field, just 70 players – pending late withdrawals – will tee it up at the Riviera Country Club.

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Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Pebble Beach winner Wyndham Clark will be amongst the headliners, while perennial Riviera performer – and former champion – Max Homa will be in town.

The likes of Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay will be hoping for an uptick in form – they, along with Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa – decided to skip the madness of the Phoenix Open to prepare more heartily for this week’s assignment.

Nick Taylor and Hoffman have burst into the field at the final hour, while there’s a place too for American Express champion Nick Dunlap.

Oh, and some guy called Tiger Woods is playing, too!

This Week’s Course Preview

You might think that a golf course which first hosted a PGA TOUR event in 1929 would be somewhat redundant these days, what with all the improvements in length that the players have made in the years since.

But Riviera CC, George Thomas’ ancient design, still stands up to scrutiny nearly a century later – thanks in part to a Tom Fazio overhaul in 2008.

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This is a lovely slice of Californian real estate; a sprawling 7,322 yard Par 71 with just three Par 5s. There’s some challenging undulations, some twisty-turny fairways and the traditionally tough Kikuyu rough to overcome, as well as large Poa Annua greens which feature some unique cambers – hitting your approach shots to the right parts is key.

The meaty yardage is confirmed by the fact that we’ve got four Par 4s measuring 470 yards or longer this week, plus three Par 3s at 190 yards and longer. Those that are able to give it a rip have typically enjoyed an advantage here, especially as the fairways found count tends to be on the low side for even the most accurate of sorts.

Hogan’s Alley, named after Ben won this title twice and a US Invitational in the space of 18 months, is rarely for the faint-hearted, although the last two editions have played somewhat easier than the norm – even if only seven of the holes averaged under par in 2023.

Of those, the first hole – a 509-yard Par 5 – saw more eagles than bogeys last year, while drivable Par 4 tenth is another that dangles reward for those willing to take on the risk.

Weather Forecast for Los Angeles, CA

It’s been a rather gruesome few weeks of weather on the PGA TOUR, but the good news is that the early forecast is suggesting a better – for the most part – time in the Pacific Palisades.

A dry and sunny start to the week will segue into Thursday, with more sunshine and temperatures of around 62 degrees.

Indeed, that’s generally the theme of Friday and Saturday too, with similar temperatures and wind speeds in the region of 7-10mph.

Sunday might be the only anomaly. The early forecasts are suggesting rain for the area and a slight dip in temperature, so it could be a damp end to an otherwise excellent golf tournament.

LOS ANGELES WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Genesis Invitational

So good was Jon Rahm at last year’s Genesis Invitational that his final round was almost like a victory lap – the Spaniard royally waving to his onlooking admirers as the rest of the field tried manfully to catch up.

An opening round of 65 put him on the toes of early leaders Max Homa and Keith Mitchell, before 68 and 65 on Friday and Saturday furthered Rahm’s position.

He led by three shots heading into the final round, albeit with only Homa, Mitchell and Patrick Cantlay within five of his 54-hole score of -15.

Birdies on the opening hole, plus seven and eight, were huge in the context of tougher conditions, before a serene back nine – two birdies, two bogeys – was enough to keep Homa at bay, who failed to break par from the tenth hole onwards.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Genesis Invitational this Week

This is a small-field event with no cut, remember, which isn’t ideal conditions for DFS success. We’re getting creative with our draft – you’ll find out more about that shortly, plugging our roster into these two particular contests.

• PGA $25k Dogleg: This single-entry game will set you back $33, but if you have faith in your roster then there’s payouts of note to be won – not least the $2,500 jackpot.

• PGA $40k Albatross: Single-entry contests are a smart way to go this week if you have faith in your main lineup, and this $12 entry game still pays a handy $4,000 to its winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

As has been the case of late, it generally takes very good golfers to win the Genesis Invitational.

In the past five years, we’ve seen Rahm, Homa, Joaquin Niemann and Adam Scott – all outstanding drivers of a golf ball – win at Riviera, while we shouldn’t forget that the 2019 champion, J.B. Holmes, is a former Ryder Cupper with a top-five to his name at Augusta.

There does seem to be something of a link to The Masters when it comes to scoping potential Genesis winners. Rahm, Scott, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson – all Genesis champions since 2017 – have tried the green jacket on for size, which is perhaps to do with the shot-shaping and long approaches that both venues require.

You can also take a look at Quail Hollow, the host of the Wells Fargo, for guidance – Homa and Holmes have won at both properties, and Torrey Pines, where the likes of Homa, Rahm and Bubba have entered the winners’ circle.

Other factors we’ve considered is the length required to thrive at Riviera – those that drive the ball 300+ yards, and who are comfy in the 150-200 yardage bucket on approach, are given preference, as are those with a strong track record on Poa Annua greens.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Justin Thomas (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 104.0, Salary: $9,100)

With Riviera being such a driver-heavy layout, you can easily make a case for Scottie or Rory this week.

But for the health of a well-balanced draft in a 70-man field, we’re going to do something we don’t normally do and back six players from the middle tranche of the salary cap – four from towards the top, two from the bottom and then a sleeper from way downtown.

Justin Thomas is the first player to get the nod. He did little wrong at TPC Scottsdale save for a few missed putts at crucial times, but you sense the incredible confidence that is oozing through JT’s tee-to-green game right now.

With no finish lower than T12 in any of his last seven starts, this is the Thomas of old – a player who simply loves Poa and who has three top-10s to his name at Riviera.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 17th

Top Tier Pick #2

Sahith Theegala (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 82.9, Salary: $8,600)

Sahith Theegala continues to grow as an elite golfer.

For the second time, he hung tough deep into the Phoenix Open – he looked favorite to lift the trophy at one point, and now that his irons are back on point he looks close to the form that won the Fortinet Championship and came second at The Sentry.

Californians tend to love life on Poa Annua greens, and that much as evident in Theegala’s T6 finish here 12 months ago. His game is now so accomplished in all departments it would not be a surprise if he was lifting this trophy come Sunday.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 24th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• SG: Putting – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Cameron Young (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 86.7, Salary: $8,500)

At his very best, Cameron Young is one of the best drivers of the ball in world golf – an excellent foundation for success anywhere, but particularly so at Riviera.

The other elements of his game are starting to catch up too, not least the +1.30 on the greens at the Phoenix Open which propelled Young to a T8 finish.

It was the best all-round display in a while from the big hitter, whose T2 here in 2022 is another reminder of the fact when Young’s short game is in good order, he can hang in any company.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 6th 
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 27th
• Greens in Regulation – 31st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Adam Scott (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 83.9, Salary: $8,200)

In his pomp, you’d get a weekly stripe-show from Adam Scott.

Well, guess what? We’re getting somewhere near those levels once more, with the Australian’s ball-striking off the chart in recent weeks.

He gained +1.57 on approach in his measured rounds at Pebble Beach, and served up +1.17 at the Phoenix Open, where a stronger putting show saw him finish T8.

A two-time winner at Riviera, we don’t need to worry about Scott’s suitability for the track nor his love of these Poa Annua greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 5th
• Scoring Average – 16th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 22nd

Low-Tier Pick

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 79.8, Salary: $7,600)

Si-Woo has never really taken to Riviera, but that could all change in 2024 now that he’s striking the ball beautifully.

We’ve done the Korean dirty there – he did finish T3 here in 2019, but overall his record is a mixed bag. However, he heads to the Pacific Palisades having gained strokes on the field off the tee in all but one of his PGA TOUR starts since May, which is an astonishing feat.

Si-Woo’s iron and wedge game is also in rude health right now, and T12 and T14 finishes at the Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach respectively reveals how loudly he’s knocking on the door of another PGA TOUR title.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th
• Scrambling – 23rd
• Scoring Average – 9th

Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational

Corey Conners (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 76.8, Salary: $7,300)

Golf has been infiltrated by narratives and false storylines, many of which are conjecture and/or coincidence.

However, there’s no doubt that the Presidents Cup heading to Montreal later this year is a big deal for the Canadian players, and having watched Nick Taylor win in Arizona you wonder which cab will be the next off the rank.

Corey Conners has never shown his best work at Riviera, but he’s an undoubtedly elite ball-striker whose regular problems on the greens were – small sample alert – overcome last week. He gained strokes on the field putting in Phoenix, with a mammoth +2.82 coming in round four.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 16th
• SG: Approach – 39th
• Scoring Average – 39th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational

Seamus Power (Odds: 400/1, FPPG: 63.8, Salary: $6,000)

If you do need a bargain play to round out a top-heavy draft, the talented Seamus Power is starting to show signs of life in his golf game.

He generally drove the ball well all week in Phoenix, before crushing his irons and wedges in the final round at TPC Scottsdale – gaining +2.00 on the field.

Given that the Irishman is a reliable enough putter, there are all the ingredients in play for a strong showing from a $6,000 price point – no cut means no pressure, which will also suit him.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 44th
• Greens in Regulation – 79th 
• Total Driving – 88th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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