Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Honda Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the The Honda Classic
The Honda Classic Fantasy Preview
For weeks we’ve been espousing the logic of backing premium ball-strikers in your DFS draft that have shown signs of heating up with the putter.
And then along comes Patrick Reed in customary fashion to poop the party.
He ranked the square root of nowhere for strokes gained off-the-tee, tee-to-green or on approach, and took the road-less-travelled of scrambling his way out of trouble and then putting like a machine.
Captain America may have been south of the border at the WGC-Mexico Championship, but he packed his putter and found that he gained superpowers on the greens, adding a staggering +2.96 strokes gained putting on the field.
In the end, it proved enough as Justin Thomas completely capitulated after holding the 54-hole lead, playing the front nine in +1 and then compelling the misery with a double bogey at ten.
Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm both powered their way up the leaderboard with some low scoring but in the end it was Reed, with four birdies in six holes on the back nine, who wrestled control and refused to let it go.
He’s now won eight times on the PGA TOUR, including one major, two WGCs and two FedEx Cup events. It’s fair to say that Reed is very much a man for the big occasion.
The PGA TOUR has now finished its California Swing, and the action now heads east for a month-long jaunt to Florida, starting with the Honda Classic this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week in Mexico, Patrick Reed surprised everyone among a stacked field of the world’s elite golfers.
With guys like Matusyama, Rory, JT, Rahm, and Byrson all charging behind him, Reed remained calm and played a stellar Sunday round including his clutch -2 over the last 4 holes to secure the lead.
The Honda Classic Field
With just a couple of weeks until THE PLAYERS Championship, it appears as if many of the great and good of world golf will be honing their craft behind closed doors.
Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler, who both finished T2 here a year ago, will be looking to go one better and unseat the defending champion Keith Mitchell, who is also in town.
The European charge will be led by Tommy Fleetwood, who will be ably supported by former Honda Classic winner Padraig Harrington, reigning British Open champion Shane Lowry and last week’s Puerto Rico Open victor, Viktor Hovland.
There are some intriguing sponsor exemptions too, including Vijay Singh, who was sat T2 here last year with a round to play, Lee Westwood and Ryo Ishikawa, who is looking to regain his PGA TOUR status after a decent run in his native Japan.
This Week’s Course Preview
After the jolly low-scoring fun of the Californian Swing, the journey to Florida comes paved with some ‘proper’ golf real estate.
TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill are on the horizon, and this week’s host – the PGA National layout in Palm Beach – isn’t too shabby either.
One of the hardest courses on the rota outside of the majors, PGA National was given a hefty overhaul by Jack Nicklaus in 1990 and his infamous trio of holes – known as the ‘Bear Trap’ – often take center stage.
The first of those features a perilous approach into what is essentially an island green on fifteen, with a tiny green – which features plenty of undulations running off it – is surrounded by water and sand.
The dogleg fairway on sixteen runs at an almost ninety-degree angle from the tee, and those who fail to brave the water hazard on the right will be left with a 220-yard approach into an undulating green if they play it safe.
Finally, seventeen features one of the smallest greens on the PGA TOUR rotation: 30ft in width, this dastardly layout has one of the highest bogey or worse rates on the tour.
As if that wasn’t all, at the 479-yard Par 4 sixth last year there were some 159 scores of bogey or worse made – and just 34 birdies.
With only two Par 5s on this 7,158-yard Par 70 course, and factoring in the gale that usually blows in these parts, and you can see why four of the last five winning scores at PGA National have been in double digits under par.
Lastly, a reminder: the greens are Bermuda this week, rather than Bentgrass or Poa Annua as they have been of late.
Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL
The early forecast predicts a wild day of thunderstorms on Wednesday, but after that there is relative calm – as far as Palm Beach goes, anyway.
There will be plenty of sunshine even if the temperatures – hovering between 68 and 71 – are not as expected, and the chance of rain is kept reassuringly low.
But, as is so often the case here, it’s the wind that is likely to be the defining factor, with speeds of up to 17 mph on Thursday and 15 mph on Sunday likely to cause carnage.
Last Year’s Results for the The Honda Classic
For a long time, it appeared as if the PGA TOUR was going to have one of its craziest stories in quite some time with Vijay Singh placed second here a year ago with just a round to play.
The Fijian was just a shot adrift of 54-hole leader Wyndham Clark, however he ran out of steam on a breezy Sunday while Clark’s challenge for a maiden PGA TOUR title fell by the wayside.
Step forward Keith Mitchell, who powered his way through the wind to land his first Tour title in fine fashion – holding off no less than Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler along the way.
Mitchell’s front nine got off to an inauspicious start and at the turn he didn’t look threatening. But he birdied four of his last seven holes – surviving the Bear Trap with a flourish – to hold off the charging Koepka and Fowler, who also closed out their rounds in fine fashion.
Keith Mitchell Highlights | Round 4 | Honda 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Honda Classic this Week
It’s a weak field event, relatively speaking, but that still brings with it opportunities for discerning gamers who stick to their principles in their draft. Here’s two contests to get stuck into:
- PGA $555k Drive the Green: The prize fund for this Drive the Green contest has increased by a cool $55k on last year’s Honda Classic, and while the top prize of a handsome $100k remains in place, there’s bigger prizes for those lower down the rankings too.
- PGA $50k Slice: Here’s a rare minimum 2x cash event where the top 20% of players will double their money. And then there’s the added incentive of potentially winning $5k for a $9 entry.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the The Honda Classic
With such a strong breeze blowing, power is always likely to be something of a factor at a course like PGA National.
Hitting into the teeth of the wind isn’t fun for anybody, but if you are one of the shorter guys around you’re always going to be leaving huge iron shots into what are testing Bermuda greens.
Indeed, it’s no coincidence that eight of the first eleven on the leaderboard 12 months ago averaged 295 yards or more off the tee.
All of the last five winners of this event – Mitchell, Thomas, Fowler, Scott and Harrington – are comfortable in the wind, and three of that bunch are major champions (maybe the other two will be in time, who knows).
In the past decade, the Honda Classic has also been won by major champions Rory McIlroy and Y.E. Yang, while Michael Thompson has also lifted the trophy – he was once second in the US Open.
That might seem coincidental, but when you think about excellent golfers tend to thrive on harder golf courses – maybe there is some logic to backing the cream of the crop here.
The switch to Bermuda is important too – make sure you’re drafting players with a bank of form on the surface and in Florida in general.
And if you’re looking for a final shortlist-maker, how about correlating form at Waialae (home of the Sony Open). Thomas, Russell Henley and Mark Wilson have won both, while there’s a slew of players that have finished either first or second at both layouts.
Short, Par 70, Bermuda, blowing a gale….that seems fair game to us.
As far as course correlations are concerned, take a look at Waialae, the host of the Sony Open. Justin Thomas, Russell Henley and Mark Wilson have won at both in the past 12 years or so, while the likes of Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Luke Donald and Rory Sabbatini have also finished first or second at both layouts.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the The Honda Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the The Honda Classic
Top Tier Pick:
Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 79.9, GPFP: 63.94 Salary: $11,600)
From a betting perspective, Vegas odds of 12/1 on a player that has ever won a PGA TOUR event is hopeless value.
But from a DFS angle, Tommy Fleetwood is a decent play with his quality ball-striking and consistency.
He was in fine form on the European Tour at the start of the season, winning the Nedbank Challenge and finishing runner-up at the DP World Tour Championship and in Abu Dhabi.
We have to hope then that such form travels to the States, and Fleetwood was T4 here in 2018 which at least offers some reassurance.
Brooks Koepka has not been at his best since returning from surgery, and you never quite know what you’re going to get with Rickie Fowler, who hasn’t fired for a couple of months.
For those reasons, Fleetwood is arguably the safest pair of hands at a golf course that suits his neat tee-to-green game.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 10th
- Greens in Regulation – 10th
- SG: Approach – 36th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 71.6, GPFP: 78.00 Salary: $9,200)
A very satisfactory 65 to close at Chapultepec propelled Billy Horschel up the leaderboard at WGC-Mexico and ensured he banked a second consecutive top-10 finish to go with his T9 return from the Phoenix Open.
For a man from Florida who tends to play his best golf in the east of the country, that is eye-catching indeed and you have to expect Horschel to kick on as he receives to native soil.
He always seems to putt well and will presumably do so again back on Bermuda, but it’s his improvements from tee-to-green that mark B-Ho out as a potential winner this week.
A run of 16-MC-4-8 at PGA National confirms that Horschel can be a major player on home turf.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 16th
- Total Driving – 17th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 22nd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 58.2, GPFP: 68.09 Salary: $7,900)
There’s a couple of nice trends to follow in with Jhonattan Vegas this week.
He closed his Puerto Rico Open account with a round of 62, which was rather eye-catching, and opened up at the Honda Classic last year with a round of 64 – the best of the day.
Vegas has previous on Jack Nicklaus designs having won the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, and he is certainly moving in the right direction with his current form. T17 in a decent field in the Saudi International got the ball rolling, and he followed up with that top-10 turn in Puerto Rico last week.
Can Vegas hit the jackpot in Florida?
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 36th
- Greens in Regulation – 39th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Russell Knox (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 66.7, GPFP: 86.76 Salary: $7,600)
A respected wind player who ranks eleventh on Tour for Bogey Avoidance, Russell Knox should enjoy the difficulty of the test this week.
He’s finished in the top-three twice at PGA National, so clearly his profile fits the bill, and he will be chomping at the bit to get going on Bermuda.
To confirm as much, his best performance this season came at the Bermuda Championship.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 16th
- SG: Approach – 17th
- Scoring Average – 28th
Low-Tier Pick:
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPFP: 52.66 Salary: $7,200)
The Korn Ferry Tour graduate is showing up really nicely at the moment, and his grinding game looks well suited to success at PGA National.
While hardly an exact science, Matthew NeSmith ranks 14th on Tour this season for Greens in Regulation and 24th for Strokes Gained: Putting, which is certainly a combination which can work well.
With four top-20s in his last six starts, including a season’s best T6 in Puerto Rico, NeSmith is edging closer to contention and his excellent iron game could help him to score well on this difficult layout.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 14th
- SG: Putting – 24th
- Scoring Average – 30th
Sleeper Pick for the The Honda Classic
Harris English (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 79.8 GPFP:101.32 Salary: $7,800)
The renaissance of Harris English’s game is extraordinary.
Years in the doldrums, where his tour card looked in jeopardy, have given way to a period consistency that marks him as being at the very top of his game.
Brilliance from tee-to-green has reignited English’s career, and his form with the flat stick isn’t too shabby either.
If he can just find a way – any way – to avoid chipping, which is his absolute achilles heel, then English can build upon his T12 at PGA National a year ago.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 2nd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 3rd
- SG: Approach – 27th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the The Honda Classic
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 51.7, GPFP: 41.34 Salary: $7,000)
T7 at the Honda Classic a year ago remains Kyoung-Hoon Lee’s biggest payday on the PGA TOUR, but he looks to be closing in on better things.
T5 at the RS Classic and T13 at the Genesis Invitational this season, the Korean has passed the test when it comes to putting on Bermuda and in ball-striking at Riviera, and if he can combine both elements at PGA National he can go well here once again.
An excellent driver of the ball, Lee can put himself in some great positions off the tee and if he fires with his irons – as he has been recently – he can make a mockery of his throwaway DFS salary and Vegas odds.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 25th
- Scrambling – 37th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 45th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
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