Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Valspar Championship

2025 Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

Perhaps it’s only fitting that the ‘fifth major’ went to a fifth day. And no disrespect to J.J. Spaun, but there’s no more fitting winner of the PLAYERS Championship right now than Rory McIlroy.

The Irishman wasn’t at his awesome best at TPC Sawgrass, and so it’s a terrifying thought for the rest of the golfing world that he was able to win in world-class company despite bringing only his B or even C game to the party.

The threat of lightning and heavy rain pushed the conclusion of the event into Monday morning, where McIlroy and Spaun returned for a unique three-hole playoff that is the custom at the PLAYERS. 

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The lowest aggregate score takes the spoils in this mini format, so Rory took an early advantage when he birdied the sixteenth to go one-up on his competitor.

And it was at the seventeenth where Spaun’s title bid really fell apart, as his approach into the island green sailed over land and into the water beyond. He made a triple bogey, and that was the end of that.

This was McIlroy’s second PLAYERS Championship victory, and – allied to his triumph at Pebble Beach – this is the first time that he has won twice in the calendar year prior to The Masters. What good could that do his bid to finally land the Green Jacket in 2025?

In the meantime, the Florida Swing comes to an end this week at the Valspar Championship.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We had some solid showings last week, but unfortunately not having Poston AND McIlroy hurt any chances we had to cash in big at Sawgrass. 

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The Valspar Championship Field

After the wind and the chaos at the PLAYERS, it’s surprising to see a handful of classy operators teeing it up at the Copperhead Course.

Xander Schauffele has supplemented himself into the field as he seeks match fitness ahead of the start of major season, and he’s joined in this Valspar field by fellow OWGR top ten stars Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas.

Sepp Straka, already a winner this season, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, and Billy Horschel round out the OWGR top-20 contingent in the field, while Peter Malnati – who won this event in hellacious conditions 12 months ago – will attempt to defend his honor.

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Other needle movers in the field include Akshay Bhatia, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim, and Jordan Spieth as the curtain falls on the Florida Swing.

This Week’s Course Preview

Of all the properties on the PGA TOUR rotation, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is one of the most mysterious and challenging to get a handle on.

This is a layout that has acted as the location for PGA TOUR wins for the likes of Peter Malnati, Taylor Moore, Adam Hadwin, John Senden, and Kevin Streelman over the past decade or so – none of whom, with respect, can be described as a straightforward or prolific champion.

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Why has the Copperhead Course delivered so many surprise winners? Well, at first glance, this appears to be the stock parklands course, with tree-heavy fairways doglegging this way and that.

But the tight landing zones off the tee, flanked by rough that is typically left on the juicier side, reveals the challenge faced on the tee box – so much so, plenty in the field will leave the big stick largely uncorked. 

And that only explains part of the problem. The Bermuda greens, which are overseeded like those at PGA National earlier in the Florida Swing, are on the small side and well protected by sand. Water is also in play on nine holes.

Measuring in the region of 7,100 yards for its Par 71, the Copperhead Course has five Par 3s and four Par 5s in its routing, with the Par 3s all measuring in excess of 200 yards.

You remember the Bear Trap at PGA National, which was more reminiscent of a teddy bear a few weeks ago? Copperhead has its own version in the form of the Snake Pit through holes 16 to 18, and this stretch really does have teeth.

The sixteenth is a nerve-shredding Par 4 with water right and out of bounds close at hand on the left, while the seventeenth is a 215-yard Par 3 that typically plays into a crosswind. The eighteenth, meanwhile, is a severely uphill Par 4 with a well-guarded fairway and a green that slopes viciously.

Only five of the holes averaged under par in 2024, with the quartet of Par 5s and the Par twelfth offering respite to the players. Otherwise it was a real grind, with the sixteenth – the opening gambit of the Snake Pit – playing as the hardest hole.

Weather Forecast for Tampa, FL

It could be a case of hold onto your hats – and everything else – on a particularly breezy start to proceedings this week.

The early forecast for Thursday suggests there could be some scattered rain showers and, more pertinently, winds of 20mph+… at a venue with tight fairways and small greens, that could lead to carnage.

Things start to improve somewhat from there, with plenty of dry spells, sunshine, and temperatures in the region of 77 degrees. 

The wind should ease down through the gears too, from 10mph on Friday and Saturday and into single digits come Sunday.

TAMPA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from The Valspar Championship

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With just one career win in more than 250 PGA TOUR starts at the time, Peter Malnati was not down in the books as an obvious contender at the 2024 Valspar Championship.

But in apocalyptic conditions, which included heavy rain and strong winds, it was his experience that ultimately proved telling.

Thursday was the easiest day of the tournament, and Malnati took full advantage with a round of 66… close on the heels of former Valspar champion, and first round leader, Kevin Streelman.

Things took a turn for the tougher on Friday, with 67 being the best score posted, but Malnati steadied the ship with a round of 71 to sit one behind the leading pack.

Moving day was not a particularly apt term for Saturday’s action, where neutral gear was very much engaged in the conditions, but nobody told Keith Mitchell, whose remarkable 66 saw him assert a two-shot lead over Malnati, Seamus Power, and Mackenzie Hughes with a round to play.

Mitchell played his opening 12 holes on Sunday in +8 – he eventually went from leader to T17 in a day to forget, and with Power also exiting stage left, it was down to Malnati and Hughes to battle it out for the trophy. 

Inertia crept into Hughes’ back nine, and while Cameron Young crept closer to the top of the leaderboard with a round of 68, it was the rock-steady Malnati – who made just one bogey in ultra-tough conditions – who would complete an emotional victory. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Valspar Championship

Given the nature of the Copperhead Course and the breezy weather forecast, chaos could reign at the Valspar Championship this week – as it did in 2024.

Depending on how you see things, you may consider that to be either a threat to your bankroll or a big opportunity… here’s contests that satisfy both of those criteria.

• GOLF TOUR $80k Club Twirl: If you’re going to double down into the volatility of the Valspar, here’s a $44 entry game that features just 2,120 entries – each trying to take down the $20k top prize.

• GOLF TOUR $300k Drive the Green: On the other hand, if you want to keep your spending tight this week, here’s a $5 contest that you can enter up to 150 times. Of that $300k prize pool, $50k goes to the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship is a riddle wrapped in an enigma that not even the sharpest minds at the FBI could unravel consistently.

To offer some context, of the top four on the leaderboard here 12 months ago, Young and Chandler Phillips were on debut, while the prior Copperhead Course form of Malnati (MC-MC-MC-60-MC-MC-MC) and Hughes (MC-13-MC-MC) did not reveal any clues as to their future success.

In fact, it’s two other golf courses that perhaps offer a better insight than Copperhead, bizarrely. Malnati, Hughes, and Sam Burns, the two-time winner here in 2021 and 2022, have all won the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.

Similarly, Burns and Davis Riley, who he beat in a playoff here, have both won the Charles Schwab Challenge, while Adam Schenk, the runner-up here in 2023, has lost in a playoff at Colonial. 

Plenty of average drivers have done well at the Copperhead Course, but tidy approach play – particularly in the 200+ range – is essential, as is a reliable short game. It’s a certainty that GIR will be missed, particularly if the wind gets up, so chipping, scrambling, and of course putting are all essential weapons in the armoury at this idiosyncratic track.

Another factor to consider is fatigue. The Florida Swing can be hard on the body and the mind, particularly for those that play in most of its events, so actually missing the weekend at the PLAYERS shouldn’t be considered a bad thing.

Of the top-16 on the leaderboard at the Valspar Championship in 2025, 14 had played at the PLAYERS the week before… but seven of them had missed the cut.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Valspar Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Valspar Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Corey Conners (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 79.7, Salary: $9,600)

In words we never expected to write, Corey Conners’ short game is in an excellent place right now.

For many years, the Canadian has had an elite long game let down by his chipping and putting, but in recent weeks he’s made big gains on the field on and around the greens – and, lest we forget, that’s in stellar company at the PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer Invitational in T6 and solo third finishes respectively.

The wind and the difficulty of the challenge surely won’t faze Conners, who now has two top-ten finishes to his name at TPC Sawgrass to go with a T9 at the U.S. Open held at the ridiculously tough Pinehurst No. 2.

Factor in a T6 at The Masters and you’re reminded that Conners is an elite-level performer: it’s about time his trophy cabinet proved as much.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 19th
• Greens in Regulation – 32nd
• Total Birdies – 48th

Top Tier Pick #2

Michael Kim (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.8, Salary: $8,900)

Historically, most of the best performers at the Valspar Championship had played some part at the PLAYERS a week before. But they didn’t necessarily make the cut…

For Michael Kim, who has not had a week off since the start of February, missing the weekend at TPC Sawgrass was perhaps a blessing in disguise given that it surely increases his chances of being competitive this week.

He continues to be in revelatory form, posting finishes of 4-6-13-13-2 and even gaining strokes on the field on approach and around-the-green at the PLAYERS in his missed cut.

With a couple of days of extra rest, we expect Kim to bounce back in a big way at the Copperhead Course – his salary this week is borderline offensive given the form he has been in for much of 2025.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 4th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

 J.T. Poston (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 82.1, Salary: $8,700)

Since winning the Shriners in October, J.T. Poston’s approach play has remained elite… but his putting has fallen off a cliff.

So how timely was his improvement at TPC Sawgrass, where his confidence grew with the flatstick – including a mammoth +3.31 gain on the field putting in round two and +1.43 overall.

Poston’s baseline level of performance is one that promises accuracy off the tee and quality around the greens, so his basic skillset is ideal for the Copperhead Course.

A proven wind player, ‘the Postman’ has delivered a solo third turn at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T10 at the Charles Schwab Challenge – both amongst the key correlating courses for the assignment at Innisbrook.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 17th
• Driving Accuracy – 36th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Taylor Moore (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 74.7, Salary: $8,600)

A pretty solid ball-striking show sets Taylor Moore up nicely for a return to the Copperhead Course, where he won his maiden PGA TOUR title in 2023.

Good vibes won’t be in short supply then; particularly as his driving and approach play at TPC Sawgrass was much better than it has been of late.

That sort of thing builds confidence from one week to the next, which is pertinent here because Moore is a) putting well right now, and b) is generally rock-solid around the greens.

Although he hasn’t pulled up many trees on the Florida Swing, there has been T7 and T9 turns at the American Express and Phoenix Open, so a title challenge this week seems more than plausible.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 17th
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 23rd
• Greens in Regulation – 54th

Low-Tier Pick

 Jacob Bridgeman (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 65.5, Salary: $7,400)

With a supremely reliable short game and a good stretch of form through the Florida Swing, Jacob Bridgeman is a sound selection this week.

T2 at the Cognizant Classic, where he leant on an excellent putting display on the overseeded greens of PGA National, was followed by T15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he gained strokes on the field in all four of the main SG departments.

Although he isn’t world class in terms of his long game, that isn’t always a disaster at the Copperhead Course – as long as you get your ball around efficiently enough, and putt well, there’s chances to be had. Bridgeman, hopefully, won’t let us down with the flatstick…

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 15th 
• SG: Putting – 17th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 30th

Sleeper Pick for The Valspar Championship

Max McGreevy (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 72.1, Salary: $7,200)

The Florida Swing has been a useful exercise for Max McGreevy, whose T4 at the Cognizant Classic saw him qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he gained +1.65 strokes on a world class field with his ball striking.

McGreevy showed nicely at the PLAYERS too with an excellent tee-to-green display, and that – combined with the +0.66 he gained on the field putting at the Cognizant – would be a very useful combination this week.

Another reason that McGreevy appeals in this field? He knows what it takes to win. A two-time champion on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2024, he also headed out to Japan for the starry Dunlop Phoenix in November; lifting the trophy ahead of the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Akshay Bhatia, and Taylor Pendrith.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 8th
• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Scoring Average (adjusted) – 40th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Valspar Championship

Davis Riley (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 53.8, Salary: $6,800)

He’s a curious sort is Davis Riley.

He shows no form whatsoever but then turns up and does the business at tracks he loves; we drafted him for our fantasy lineup when he won the Charles Schwab Challenge last year – at 300/1, no less.

That win followed a prior T4 at Memorial, while Riley has also served up a top 20 at the Sanderson Farms Championship too; so that’s a trio of strong showings at correlating courses.

He was right there at the Puerto Rico Open, sitting solo second at the halfway mark, before slipping away on Saturday. A closing round of 68 on Sunday saw him record a final T6 finish.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 41st
• SG: Putting – 59th
• Rough Proximity – 73rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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