Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – WM Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open  

WM Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

Even the worst weather couldn’t dampen Wyndham Clark’s celebrations at Pebble Beach.

The U.S. Open champion bagged the first Signature Event title of his career on Saturday, weirdly, when Sunday’s action was called off due to strong winds and heavy rain. It was decided that the venue wasn’t ready on Monday, either, so Clark walks away with the AT&T Pebble Beach title after 54 holes of play.

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There will always be an asterisk next to the win, then, but that shouldn’t detract from the outstanding performance Clark produced in his third round – at one stage looking likely to join the 59 Club, he instead had to settle for a round of 60….still the best competitive total ever posted at Pebble Beach.

Now holding a major and a Signature Event simultaneously, any doubts about Clark’s elite status can be canned.

After one classy, albeit weather-shortened, renewal in California, it’s off to the Arizona desert we go for another: the Waste Management Phoenix Open at the iconic TPC Scottsdale.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

In the end, although it was a short week, we had two of our fantasy picks finish in the Top 10 including our two sleeper picks: Mark Hubbard (T4) and Tom Hoge (T6). 

It was a bit of an awkward week with Sunday’s rounds being cancelled so let’s put that one behind us and move on to Phoenix, one of our favorite events of the year!

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2024 WM Phoenix Open Field

Although not a Designated Event – the Phoenix Open is actually sandwiched in-between two at Pebble Beach and next week’s Genesis Invitational, this tournament has often, and continues, to draw a high-calibre field of players.

Scottie Scheffler returns to Arizona looking for a three-peat – he won this event in both 2022 and 2023 in sublime fashion. He seems to love the greens at TPC Scottsdale, which is bad news for everyone else.

A ropey weather forecast – hopefully that, rather than LIV rumors – has caused Viktor Hovland to withdraw, but there’s still plenty of quality in the field courtesy of Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.
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Clark will head to the desert looking to back up his Pebble Beach heroics, while Scottsdale lovers like Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama will be looking for an uptick of form on a favorite hunting ground.

This Week’s Course Preview

Are you ready for one of the most entertaining closing stretches of holes on the PGA TOUR?

It all gets underway on the 15th, a gettable Par 5 that induces risk-and-reward: most in the field can reach the green in two shots, but will they take the chance with a sizable water hazard flanking the entire left edge of the dance floor?

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The 16th at TPC Scottsdale is fast becoming one of the most fabled holes in world golf. A 163-yard Par 3, the players must overcome a contoured green and the small matter of 20,000 patrons, who will be cheering, shouting, booing and lobbing beer glasses at every turn from the stadia that line the perimeter of the hole.

The seventeenth is a fascinating hole, where many leaders – including Sahith Theegala and Rickie Fowler in recent times – have flopped at the finishing line. A 332-yard Par 4, most can drive the green….whether they choose to, with a receptive water hazard waiting, remains to be seen.

TPC Scottsdale is rounded out by a 442-yard Par 4 that features a forced drive over a big old watery lake. This averaged over par last year, which explains why the leaders find it so tough down the closing stretch here.

Otherwise a classic desert track, TPC Scottsdale measures 7,266 yards for its Par 71 – albeit at an elevation of more than 1,500ft above sea level, so balls travel further. 

A fun Tom Weiskopf design, the landing zones are generous enough – save for the large number of hazards waiting for anything hit off-line, while the larger-than-average Bermuda greens can run slick when the weather conditions allow.

A tough but fair course, six of TPC Scottsdale’s holes averaged under par in 2023 – including two of the Par 5s at three and thirteen, which are particularly easy. 

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ

Quite how raucous the patrons will be at this year’s edition of the Waste Management remains to be seen.

The weather forecast, as per the early forecast, does not lend itself to a rollicking good time while sat in the bleachers. Rain on Tuesday and Wednesday will continue into Thursday’s opening day, with temperatures as low as 59 degrees.

Those predictions expect the rest of the tournament to be somewhat drier, but with temperatures ranging from 57 degrees on Friday to 66 on Sunday, with only light winds, it’s unlikely that Scottsdale will play as fast and firm as usual – or that the huge crowds will be in particularly celebratory mood.

SCOTTSDALE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the WM Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler seems to putt better at TPC Scottsdale than he does anywhere else, which you don’t need us to tell you is a bad omen for everybody else.

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The defending champion from 2022, Scheffler was once again up to his old tricks last year – a sublime second round of 64 seeing him claim a share of the 36-hole lead with Adam Hadwin.

Scoring was tougher on the Saturday, but Scheffler’s 68 was enough to see him two clear of Jon Rahm – the Arizona State grad beloved in these parts – heading into Sunday.

The crowd was firmly behind Rahm, but it was another pretender to Scheffler’s throne who gave him the biggest headache – Nick Taylor blasting an excellent round of 65.

But, in true Scheffler fashion, he matched it – his own 65, bogey-free and with four birdies and an eagle, saw him comfortably take the tape on -19, two shots clear of Taylor.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WM Phoenix Open this Week

Knowing that the best players in the world have thrived in the Phoenix Open in the past, we at least have a pathway to knowing what makes for a strong roster this week – albeit balancing our salary cap in these thoroughbred events can be tough.

Even so, we can head to a cool and wet Arizona with confidence.  With that said here is some of the best DraftKings action to get in on this week.

• PGA $1M People’s Open Special: It’s a confidence that sees us enter this $25 contest, which promises plenty of big prizes from its sizable entry fee – the winner pockets $200k, with many other handsome payouts available.

• PGA $250k Drive the Green: A similar notion, at a lower price-point, sees us also targeting this contest, which for a $5 entry fee still offers plenty of rewards – not least the $25k jackpot.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The winner’s circle at the Phoenix Open reads like a who’s who of modern-day golf. Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama – all major champions, all double winners at TPC Scottsdale. Phil Mickelson before them won this event three times.

Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland – both US Open champions, no less – join the dots of contemporary Phoenix Open winners, with a selection of runners-up that include Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau plus course horses Fowler, Simpson and Matsuyama.

In short, you need to be good to win the Phoenix Open. Very good.

The prevailing statistics don’t help out too much: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approaches from 100+ yards, Par 4 Scoring….these are just simply measures of quality operators.

It’s interesting how well Augusta National form correlates with TPC Scottsdale. Anecdotally they’re not similar, but an ability to shoot a decent score under immense pressure – against a quality field – is as strong a causal link as any.

Desert form at the Shriners and American Express can be considered useful, as can the menage-a-trois of Phoenix Open, Memorial Tournament and Honda Classic – there’s a whole host of players who have performed well at all three of these events.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WM Phoenix Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Justin Thomas (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 103.8, Salary: $10,000)

It should be emphasized that Scottie Scheffler is a strong and worthy favorite this week – if putting is his Kryptonite, then the greens at TPC Scottsdale have historically offered this golfing superhero a safe haven over the past two years.

But $11,600 doesn’t exactly leave much room for a considered roster build, so instead we’re starting off with a player who looks to be getting somewhere back to near his best – Justin Thomas.

JT basically had a year off in 2023, and yet his struggles in even finishing inside the top-125 of the FedEx Cup standings have clearly afforded him perspective. He’s finished T6 or better in each of his last five outings, if you count the DP World Tour’s Nedbank Challenge. 

Restored is his outstanding ball-striking, his reliable chipping stroke and – sometimes – a sure-handedness on the greens. A love of TPC Scottsdale – he’s finished no lower than T13 in his last five visits – confirms that JT really can win this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Driving Distance – 9th
• Scoring Average – 14th

Top Tier Pick #2

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 102.0, Salary: $9,500)

It’s not impossible that JT’s old mucker Jordan Spieth could be battling him at the top of the leaderboard this week.

In an unexpected twist, Spieth has been driving the ball superbly well of late – finding fairways with good length too.

You always feel that’s a confidence that rubs off onto other areas of his game, and having gained strokes on the field on approach in his last three starts, Spieth’s iron and wedge play is as strong as ever.

He lost a lot of strokes on the greens at Pebble Beach, and yet he gained +1.67 on the field putting at The Sentry, so there’s no alarms to be had. Jordan, like Justin, loves TPC Scottsdale, and he returns there this week in excellent fettle.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th
• SG: Putting – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 90.1, Salary: $9,000)

Every once in a while, you get a pricing error like this from the DFS sites.

With no offense intended, Wyndham Clark has achieved more in the past 12 months than many of the players around him in the salary list have in their entire careers.

Yes, his form had been sluggish prior to Pebble Beach, but this is a guy who broke an ancient course record as recently as Saturday – in pretty tough conditions, too.

Clark has the tee-to-green game these days to conquer TPC Scottsdale – he was T10 here a year ago, and given that he was shorn of his trophy celebration at Pebble Beach by the cancellation, you suspect he’ll ‘properly’ want to take care of business this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
• SG: Putting – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Taylor Montgomery (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 78.9, Salary: $7,400)

There’s an unwritten list of players who it feels as though are rounding up to a maiden PGA TOUR win in 2024.

Taylor Montgomery is on the list, in the sense that his game draws parallels to that of Wyndham Clark – long off the tee and with a reliable short game, he’s just starting to add the kind the kind of approach play improvements that finally unlocked the door for Clark to break through.

Montgomery isn’t as talented as Clark, let’s make that clear, but his game is in decent shape right now with three finishes of T13 or better in his last five starts. T5 at the American Express in 2023 suggests an affinity with desert golf, too, from the University of Nevada grad.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 11th
• Scrambling – 14th
• SG: Approach – 23rd

Low-Tier Pick

Kevin Yu (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 56.9, Salary: $7,300)

The Arizona State grad is sure to get plenty of support at the Phoenix Open, with his fellow alumni – such as Jon Rahm – always getting strong backing at TPC Scottsdale.

That’s not to say that will automatically lead to a strong performance from Yu, who will be making his tournament debut, but so many of the ingredients are in place for a good showing.

His approach play was once again on point in the two measured rounds at Pebble Beach, where his flat stick was colder than a gale blowing in from the Pacific. But, generally in 2024, Yu has improved in that department, and he’ll find the overseeded greens at Scottsdale to be much purer and smoother.

Always excellent off the tee, we expect Kevin Yu to win on the PGA TOUR in 2024 – could it come on his old stomping ground?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 15th
• Proximity to Hole – 29th

Sleeper Pick for the WM Phoenix Open

Nick Taylor (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 79.9, Salary: $7,200)

Better was expected from Nick Taylor at the AT&T Pebble Beach, although an eye-catching turn in the third and final round there offers plenty of encouragement.

The Canadian fired a round of 67 despite losing -1.04 strokes to the field putting, which is a strong indicator that he found the approach play excellence that has been running through his game for the past six months or so.

You may also recall Taylor’s T2 finish here 12 months ago, which confirms that TPC Scottsdale is to his liking.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 47th
• SG: Putting – 50th
• Birdie Average – 59th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WM Phoenix Open

Jake Knapp (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 81.6, Salary: $6,900)

What a performance Jake Knapp put in a fortnight ago at the Farmers Insurance Open.

He finished T3, ranked third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and gained strokes on the field putting.

It’s a continuation of the upward curve Knapp has enjoyed since the start of the 2023 season, where he put together a stack of top-10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour.

But we particularly like him this week because he has such easy length off the tee – always a help in rain-softened conditions, and he’s won three times on the Canadian Tour, so he’s no stranger to success in cooler environments. 

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 9th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 37th
• Approaches from 100+ Yards – 57th 

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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