Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2014 PGA Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 PGA Championship

This Week’s Tournament Preview

With the FedExCup Playoffs only two short weeks away, the PGA TOUR now heads into the season’s fourth and final major at Valhalla Country Club in Louisville, KY. This week’s PGA Championship will set the stage for golf’s greatest competitors to duke it out for 2014’s last remaining playoff points to earn a spot at the Barclays.

Another big story this week includes the buzz surrounding the now sidelined Tiger Woods and speculation as to whether or not he’ll be in attendance at Valhalla. Woods withdrew from play last week in Akron due to back pain and now sits at No. 10 in the world. He’s also in serious danger of missing the 2014 FedExCup Playoffs (and even the Ryder Cup). Tiger may get some local treatment and set out to attempt to earn those needed playoff points, but ultimately he appears to be in no shape to win this week.

The 2014 PGA Championship will also mark the final chance for U.S. golfers to earn an automatic spot onto the Ryder Cup roster. The top nine players on the U.S. points list after this week’s major will punch their ticket to Gleneagles with Captain Tom Watson hand selecting three additional picks. We see Keegan and Moore as possibilities, but no one truly knows what Captain Watson will be thinking.

No Title

All the excitement of the PGA Championship is coming to Valhalla in 2014. Watch this highlight reel of amazing shots from past Championships to get pumped up for it.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

It was an impressive showing for our fantasy picks at the WGC-Bridgestone as our selections finished the week with a grand total of five Top-15 finishes including a one winner (McIlroy), two Top 3’s and a total of four Top 10s. Premium Members who selected our number one pick  (Rory McIlroy/1st) and combined him with our Salary Cap Sleeper Pick (Marc Leishman/3rd) brought home a total of $2,052,000 in fantasy dollars between those two picks alone!

With last week’s success we bumped our total YTD fantasy dollars to $37.769 million and are now riding a four week fantasy earnings average of $1.54 million/week. The win last week also marked the completion of our 2014 WGC Events swing where we ended 2/3 or 66.7% (Jason Day WGC Match Play and Rory McIlroy WGC Bridgestone) on the season.

The Field

Similar to last week, the field at Valhalla will be robust, featuring all of the top players in world except Dustin Johnson, who has taken a personal leave from the game, along with the possible absence of Tiger Woods due to his lingering back injury.

The three 2014 major champions, Rory McIlroy (Open Championship), Martin Kaymer (U.S. Open), and Bubba Watson (Masters), will be the featured paring in the first two PGA Championship rounds. Although this all-star pairing will certainly draw plenty of attention, there will undoubtedly be a tangible absence in the field with DJ and potentially Woods both being sidelined for the event.

Recent Barracuda champ Geoff Ogilvy has secured a spot in the field along with Champions Tour winners Colin Montgomerie (Senior PGA Championship) and Kenny Perry (3M Championship). A neat twist this year is the fact that players finishing in the top twenty of the PGA Professional National Championship will also be joining the TOUR pros at Valhalla, and what a story it would be if one of them made some noise over the weekend!

The Course

Valhalla Golf Club measures in at a daunting 7,458 yards and plays as a par 71. What was once a horse farm, this well known Jack Nicklaus’ masterpiece sits just minutes outside downtown Louisville, Kentucky. This challenging track first opened its doors in 1986 and played home to both the 1996 and 2000 PGA Championship.

One important note is the fact that Valhalla only contains three par-5s, all of which most likely reachable in two with a booming drive. However, even with some newly removed trees, the course still presents plenty of potential danger when it comes to approach shots.  Some say it will be “target golf” on all approach shots and GIR percentages will really separate a handful of players from the rest of the pack. Putting is a challenge here too, so we’ll be keeping those stats in mind when making out picks.

Photo by valhalla.pgalinks.com

Weather Forecast for Louisville, KY (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Aug 7) 87 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated t-storms..
• Round 2: Friday (Aug 8) 84 degrees, 60% chance of rain, scattered t-storms.
• Round 3: Saturday (Aug 9) 86 degrees, 60% chance of rain, scattered t-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (Aug 10) 88 degrees, 20% chance of rain, mostly sunny.

2013 Results

It was all the Jason Dufner show last year as the 3-time PGA TOUR winner fended off Jim Furyk and the rest of the field down the stretch at Oak Hill to win his first major. Dufner shot an unstoppable Round two score of 63, which matched the 18-hole record in a major, and helped propel him into final day just one shot behind Furyk.

A birdie at No. 8 finally gave Duf the lead and he never looked back from there. Meanwhile, Furyk went on to bogey the next hole and couldn’t keep his pace with Dufner who eventually went to card a four day total of 270.

Most say it was sweet redemption after Dufner blew his 4-shot lead at the 2011 PGA Championship to Keegan Bradley.

No Title

Watch all the highlights from the final round at Oak Hill as Jason Dufner grabbed the lead over Jim Furyk and never looked back, going on to win his first career major championship and hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy in the season’s final major.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 1:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday, 11:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST (TNT)
  • Saturday – Sunday, 2:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, 12:00 pm – 7:00 p.m. EST (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the PGA Championship iPhone and iPad app.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

We’re riding a high after last week’s $2.6 million dollar fantasy earnings week and we know just the players that will fare well on this course. For the reasons mentioned earlier we’ll obviously be on the look out for long ball hitters but here’s a spoiler…distance off the tee will not our key stat this week – we want to target guys with strong GIR percentages both here and in recent events. The field’s short game wizards will also weigh heavily on our picks this week. Valhalla is a scoreable course and the key to building a good fantasy team this week will be pairing a few big names with a solid sleeper.  Fear not, we have you covered in both departments.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 PGA Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 PGA Championship

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 3/1):  The former PGA Championship winner (Kiawah in 2012) strolls into Valhalla with for the first time back in the No. 1 spot in the Official World Rankings. Add to that a Claret Jug and a WGC title in the last three weeks you’ll see why Rory is easily the hottest player on the planet right now. The key to McIlory’s recent success is the fact that his driver is on fire once again, which makes his game a perfect fit for this course. Rory certainly looks to have returned to his dominance of 2012 and this make him the clear favorite across every odds board this week. We see no reason to be different and it would be foolish to go against the pack on this one.
• Justin Rose  (Golficity Odds 6/ 1):  Justin is having a phenomenal summer and his golf game is exactly where he wants it to be heading into the year’s final major and the eventual playoffs. He has six Top 5’s this season as well as a win at the Scottish Open (European Tour).  With two wins in the last month, Rose is a solid option this week for any league. Pair him up with McIlroy and sprinkle a little Moore on top (see what we did there…) to give you one solid salary cap fantasy line-up.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 8/1): The former No. 1 player in the world lost his rank last week at Firestone, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have what it takes to win this event. Scott’s game is almost perfect for this Jack Nicklaus design and he’s going to be gunning to grab that No. 1 spot back. Since his win at Colonial, Scott has five straight top 10s and ranks third in adjusted scoring, T3 in par-4 scoring, and first in par-5 scoring. Some may argue for Kuchar in this spot (which isn’t a bad argument), but we love Scott’s chances a little bit more at Valhalla.
• Keegan Bradley  (Golficity Odds 12/1): Keegan is heating up at  exactly the right time. Odds are he’ll be a captain’s pick on the Ryder Cup, but we’re sure he wants to make it based on points. The former PGA Champion (2011) has T4s in three of his last six starts, including his most recent finish at WGC-Bridgestone. Odds are you may not have picked him much this season so don’t be afraid to add him to your team this week. Ignore Stenson and Furyk and give Keegan a shot. If he plays the way we think he will you certainly won’t regret it.
• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 15/1): We normally stay away from Sergio due to his inability to close (see last week’s results), but lately he’s  been a fantasy machine. Garcia ranks fith in fantasy points in DraftKings salary cap leagues and lately he has been a force to be reckoned with. With three runner up finishes in his last four starts, you have to think he’s knocking on the door. Sergio leads the TOUR in adjusted par-3 and par-4 scoring and is T9 in proximity, and stands at fourth on TOUR in GIR. Consider those stats plus his deadly ability to scramble (4th on TOUR – a key stat that we’re favoring this week) and you’ve got yourself a solid pick…at least on paper. We’re not entirely sure if he has what it takes to close the door, but “El Nino” should earn you some serious fantasy points this week.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 PGA Championship

• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 30/1): We leaned towards picking Fowler here, but we think Moore has a better chance of earning more for you this week. He has finished no worse than a T12 (Open Championship) in his last four starts including his T8 finish at Firestone last week. He also ranks in at a healthy 9th GIR and 22nd in adjusted scoring. With Ryder Cup potential on the horizon you can be shore that Ryan will be making his final push on what has become a stellar season for the young Vegas grown talent. It also helps that his cost in DraftKings fantasy leagues is only $7,400, which is roughly 30% below the top pick.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 PGA Championship

• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 40/1): Yep…you guessed it!  We’re going back with the Australian this week as our Salary Cap Sleeper, even though his dollar value has risen a bit since last week. Earning the phrase “Best Player Not to Win this Year,” Leishman is certainly having a career year. With six top 10s including three coming in his last four starts (and that includes his solo third at the WGC-Bridgestone) Leishman is another guy who’s well overdue for a win. As an added bonus, you can grab him and Moore on your salary cap league and still pick up McIlroy without a problem.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 4/1): WINNER ($1,530,000)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 7/1): T8 ($170,000)
• Jim Furyk(Golficity Odds 10/1): T15 ($97,500)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 12/1): T12 ($115,000)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 18/1): T8 ($170,000)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 25/1): 49th ($54,000)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 50/1): 3rd ($522,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $37,769,353 (Weekly average = $1,218,366)
• Total Top 10s: 77 out of 217 players picked (35.48%).
• Total Top 3s: 23 out of 217 players picked (10.60%).
• Total Missed Cuts: Only 30 out of 217 players picked (86.17% made the cut).
• Total Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 3 (33.3%)
• Total WGC Event Winners Picked 2 out of 3 (66.67%)

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 PGA Championship with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit) & (Top Photo Credit)