Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2014 Quicken Loans National

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Quicken Loans National

This Week’s Tournament Preview

Guess whose back? By now everyone knows that Tiger Woods will kick off his comeback this week at Congressional. It’s been over three months since we last saw Woods limping to a closing 78 at Trump Doral and this week will mark the first tournament test of his surgically repaired back. What’s perhaps most astonishing is that this week’s Quicken Loans National start comes barley two weeks after Woods started taking his first full swings in rehab.

In all, Tiger has made just four starts this season, with a best finish of 25th before sitting out the Masters, THE PLAYERS and U.S. Open. We’re certain that at least part of the motivation to use this week as the stage for Tiger’s return is his charity’s association with the event at Congressional. How Tiger will actually perform is just about anyone’s guess.

Justin Rose, another 2-time winner of this event (with his most recent victory in 2010 at Aronimink) will also be joining the field this week, and rising star Jordan Spieth will be back in action after taking a much needed week off following the US Open.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our sleeper pick Ryan Moore held the 54-hole lead heading into Sunday but fell off the pace with two quick bogeys on his front nine. Not many expected Kevin Streelman to outshine the star-studded field but that is the beauty of golf – anyone can win. Overall, all seven of our picks made the cut this week and we notched a T5 from Ryan Moore and a T18 from Jason Day. Total weekly fantasy earnings were $488,784.

The Field

No matter how he performs Tiger Woods will certainly be the media highlight of this week’s field, which should take some pressure off some of the other big names in the field like Spieth, Rose, Simpson, and Bradley. World ranked No. 7 Jason Day whose been playing well since Pinehurst will be in contention again this week along with twelve other PGA TOUR winners in 2014, including 2-time winner Patrick Reed and last week’s winner Kevin Streelman. KJ Choi, who made a lot of noise last weekend with his T2 finish at the Travelers, will also be in the field again this week. With all this star power coming into Congressional the Quicken Loans National is truly anyone’s race.

The Course

Congressional Country Club (Blue) measures in at 7,569 yards and plays par 71. The course was opened way back in 1924 and founding life members include former U.S. presidents Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, Gerald Ford and Woodrow Wilson – but we may be more familiar with this course as the site of Rory McIlroy’s US Open romping in 2011 where he beat nearest competitor Jason Day by eight strokes to win his first Major.

Congressional was also the site of Tiger Woods’ AT&T National (event name prior to the Quick Loans name change) in 2012 to win his 74th career PGA TOUR event (currently 79). The course will be soft as rain is in the forecast most of the week.

Photo by ccclub.org.

Weather Forecast for Bethesta, MD (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (June 26) 85 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (June 27) 83 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 3: Saturday (June 28) 81 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (June 29) 81 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.

2013 Results

2011 FedExCup Winner Bill Haas emerged victorious last year, winning his fifth PGA TOUR event after firing a 5-under 66 on Sunday to finish three strokes ahead of Roberto Castro. Haas ran away with what was then called the AT&T National after draining three consecutive birdies on holes 8, 9, and 10. No other player in the field was able to come within two strokes of Haas for the rest of the round. The victory extended Haas’ streak to four consecutive seasons with at least one win.

Haas is back in the field this week to try and claim his title defense and become one of the only 2-time winners of the Quicken Loans National (along with Rose and Woods).

Round 4 Recap: 2013 AT&T National

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Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, noon – 6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Should you pick Tiger this week? Perhaps you’ll be following the herd and steering clear from picking him this week. If you fall into that category, you’ll need some solid contenders who won’t have much trouble with Congressional.

Last season, this track averaged 4.92 strokes on the three Par 5s and it was ranked the second-hardest set of Par 5s all season. We’re looking at Par 5 stats this week in both scoring and driving categories and you can bet that some of the guys on our list rank well there.   

So far in 2014, our fantasy staff has picked seven winners in twenty-five tournaments, along with 61 Top 10s, 18 Top 3s, and we’re still happily above 85% (86.86%) “made-cut” ratio. This stat is proven to be crucial in fantasy golf because as we always point out, missed cuts earn no money. Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition and use our sleeper picks to help win your DraftStreet or other cash prize leagues. Don’t forget to take a look at our stats below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 Quicken Loans National

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Quicken Loans National

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 12/1): Jordan took a much needed week off following Pinehurst and will begin his next long stretch of play leading up to the Open Championship in a few weeks. The 20 year old has played in twenty events so far in the 2013-2104 wrap-around season and has only missed two cuts. He has top 20s in six of his last seven starts and a total of fourteen top 20s on the season. Last year he co-led here after 36 holes and finished in 6th. The well rested Spieth has a solid 4.61 Par 5 scoring average and could dominate this course if his game is turned on.
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 16/1): A healthy Jason Day is what fantasy owners have been waiting for since his Match Play win in February. Day has shown signs of life over the last few weeks with a T4 at Pinehurst and a T18 at the Travelers last week. He knows the Congressional track pretty well, finishing solo second here in 2011,  T8  in 2012  and T21 last year. We’re pretty sure the wrist is feeling much better and we’re confident that he can win this week.
• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 20/1): Snedeker is a solid “new” name to go with this week. The stats looks a bit lull for Brandt this season, but we’re adding him this week for a couple of reasons. First, he switched putters for the first time in years at Pinehurst and since making the change he’s finished T9 and T11 (Travelers). With his putting beginning to take form again, Snedeker regains the ability climb the leaderboard in a hurry. Second, he’s a proven winner with six PGA TOUR wins and a FedExCup trophy. And the last, and probably the most important reason he’s on our list this week, is his history at Congressional. Brandt has three top 10s at Congressional as well as a T11 in here at the 2011 U.S. Open. We’re sure his dismal 26th place ranking on the Ryder Cup points list isn’t sitting too well with him and that alone could very much be the motivation he needs to get back in contention for Tom Watson’s team. 
• Brendan Todd (Golficity Odds 24/1): It’s arguably a toss up between Webb Simpson or Todd here, but if we have to pick one this week, it’s going to be Todd. Brendan has only three missed cuts in twenty events, and his streak includes a win and five top 10s. Since his breakthrough win at the HP Byron Nelson, Todd  has notched three straight top 20s (T5, T8, T17). He also finished T13 here at Congressional last year. Todd currently sits at seventh in strokes gained-putting, 12th in adjusted scoring, and T49 in Par 5 Scoring on TOUR, with an average score of 4.64. Todd  will cost you about $8K less than Spieth in most salary cap leagues, but most likely won’t be in the A-Tier in pick’em leagues. He’s a solid pick this week for sure.
• KJ Choi (Golficity Odds 32/1): Here’s a new name for us this week. Over the past few weeks KJ has been playing some of the best golf of his career, and he’s coming off a T2 at the Traveler’s after posting first and second round 65’s. His swing looks much better than it has in past years, and rumor has it he’s been working on some new swing techniques, and so far, so good. We feel that he can shift the momentum in Congressional this week but we wouldn’t bet the ranch on him.  He’ll most likely land in most 3rd Tiers in pick’em pools and he should be reasonably priced in salary cap leagues. Oh, and did we mention that Choi ranks 43rd on TOUR in Par 5 performance with a 4.62 scoring average? That’s the kind of stats we’re looking for here at Congressional. 

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 Quicken Loans National

• Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 38/1): We’re treating Keegan as a sleeper pick this week because we know he has the skill to win this tournament, but at the same time we’re unsure if he currently has the game for it. Keegan is only 8 spots off the board for the Ryder Cup, and we’re sure that is motivating him at this point in the season. Keegan has excellent ball flight and an outstanding Par 5 scoring average which can give him a little edge over some of the other guys. Our concern is that although Bradley recently tied for fourth at Pinehurst he hasn’t made much noise otherwise. He’s priced high in salary leagues simply because of his name, but we’d consider him in leagues where you need a new face other than just opting for Spieth or Rose. Keegan is currently 17th in the all-around, 22nd in adjusted scoring and 21st in scrambling, all solid numbers for Congressional.
• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 50/1): Leish comes into Congressional with five consecutive cuts made, four of which were top 25s. At last week’s start in CT he finished T11 and he currently ranks 29th in adjusted scoring. Leishman can make a really great unexpected pick for most leagues, and most fantasy players won’t choose him. In fact, some would probably pick Tiger over Leishman, based simply on the hype of having him back in the field, but Marc has three Top 10s in 16 starts two of which were T2 and T3. Granted that it’s still a bit of a crapshoot on Leishman this week, but we like his chances on this course as a low priced pick.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Travelers Championship

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1): T31 ($32,296)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 10/1): T31 ($32,296)
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 18/1): T31 ($32,296)
• Keegan Bradley(Golficity Odds 18/1): T31 ($32,296)
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 22/1): T18 ($78,120)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Travelers Championship

• Charlie Hoffman(Golficity Odds 30/1): T26 (45,880)
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1): T5 ($235,600)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $30,594,663 (Weekly average = $1,223,786).
• Total Top 10s: 61 out of 175 players picked (34.86% of players picked).
• Total Top 3s: 18 out of 175 players picked (10.28% of players picked).
• Total Missed Cuts: Only 23 out of 175 players picked (86.86% of players picked).
• Total Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 2 (50%)

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 Quicken Loans National at Congressional CC.

(Cover Photo Credit)