Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2014 Travelers Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Travelers Championship

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week you simply can’t rule Bubba Watson out due to his missed cut at Pinehurst. If you remember, the Travelers Championship was the spot where Bubba won his PRA TOUR event, same goes for others in the field like Ken Duke, and Freddie Jacobsen. More importantly, a solid performance from Watson this week would mark the first time in more than five months that someone sat above Jimmy Walker on top of the FedExCup points list.

It’s also worth noting that a number of amateurs from the field at Pinehurst will be turning pro this week and heading to TPC River Highlands, but we don’t expect too much noise from them. We’ll dive into this week’s field (and in-depth prediction analysis) in a moment, but first let’s wrap up last week at the U.S. Open…

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

No surprise that a major event at the newly renovated Pinehurst No. 2 was going to be a challenge to pick, but we’re happy with last week’s results. All told, our selections last week made 6 out of 7 cuts and earned a total fantasy weekly earnings of just over $1.025 million. Although we lost Bubba early as our only missed cut, some of our other strategic picks paid off nicely, such as Jason Day (T4 $326,310) over the more widely hyped Rory McIlroy (T23 $79.968 – a favorite on all of the major odds boards). Another favorite among many other fantasy sites was Jason Dufner due to his recent success in majors and big events. We opted for Mickelson in that spot (advising you pick him low), and although he finished T28 and earned $59,588, Dufner missed the cut and earned $0. Remember, its like we say each week, everyone loves picking the winners, but fantasy points are earned in the trenches, and it rarely pays off to follow the herd.

The Field

As we mentioned earlier, Bubba Watson is most likely to be the favorite this week, even though he missed the cut last week in North Carolina. Along with Watson (the 2010 winner of this event), five other players who are among the top 15 in the world rankings will be in attendance this week. With a number of  players out (resting up after another difficult major), guys like Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day have all committed to this week’s Travelers Championship. In total, 55 players who competed at Pinehurst last week will be in the field at the Travelers.

You’ll need to have a more strategic approach with this week’s field – don’t just grab the big name picks this week without knowing about some of the other scrappers in the field, and that’s where we’re here to help!

The Course

TPC River Highlands measures in at 6,841 yards and plays as a par 70. Players who were in the field last week at Pinehurst will breathe a sigh of relief when they step foot on this track, although this course has been tricky to navigate. The course sits atop a bluff that overlooks the Connecticut River and was renovated in 1982. Holes 15-17 play around a four-acre lake which could cause a lot of drama but is easily conquerable with the proper plan of attack.

Patrick Cantlay holds the course record here with a 60 in 2011 and will be back in the field after a fractured back injury sidelined him for most of the year. The weather should hold up this week and the course is expected to be in great shape for this year’s event.

Photo by TPC.com.

Weather Forecast for Cromwell, CT (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (June 19) 83 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Friday (June 20) 79 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (June 21) 77 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (June 22) 79 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2013 Results

Ken Duke won his first PGA TOUR event here last year at the age of 44, becoming the oldest first-time winner in nearly two decades. Chris Stroud dunked a dramatic chip-in to force a playoff  but Duke managed to beat him out on the second extra hole. Playing outstanding golf, Duke firing back-to-back 65s on the weekend to stay in contention until the very end.

For more details regarding the 2013 Travelers Championship, see our full recap from last year here.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 Travelers Championship

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Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, noon – 6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

We’re coming off of a $1 million dollar fantasy week at the U.S. Open and we’re confident we can do the same, if not better, at this week’s Travelers Championship event. The key to success here will be finding whose game is best suited for a challenging TPC River Highlands. This track has proven to be a steep test and some of the slumping players won’t fair well here. Holes is recent years have been made longer and long ball hitters are certainly going to grab an advantage. Only 2 years ago a 60 was carded here, so high numbers are expected, but don’t expect a walk in the park. We’ll be paying close attention to fairway accuracy and distance stats  for this week.

So far this year, our fantasy staff has picked seven winners in twenty-four tournaments, along with 60 Top 10s, 18 Top 3s, and we’re still happily above 85% (86.31%) “made-cut” ratio. Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition and use our sleeper picks to help win your DraftStreet or other cash prize leagues. And don’t forget to take a look at our stats below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 Travelers Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Travelers Championship

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 6/1): Don’t overvalue the fact that Bubba missed the cut at Pinehurst last week. You can’t overlook a major winner having the best season of his career, playing at a course where he picked up his first PGA TOUR win. If that hasn’t sold you, Bubba is second all-time in earnings at the Travlers and this year he has two wins, a pair of T2s and a 3rd place finish under his belt. A win this week would knock Jimmy Walker off the top spot in FedExCup rankings and Bubba would sit pretty heading into the summer months. As mentioned earlier, the course is a beast but we think he’s the horse for this course. Bubba’s our go-to this week in pick’em leagues with tier ranks, but he may break the bank on most salary cap leagues. 
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 8/1): Kuchar bounced back from his mini-slump at Pinehurst where he finished T12 and stayed in contention to try and grab the 2nd place finish (since no one was catching Kaymer). It was Kuch’s 13th top 20 in 16 starts this season and nine of them were top 10s. He skipped this event last year but picked up a T8 in his last appearance in 2012. Both Kuch and Bubba are essentially the same cost in most salary cap leagues this week, opt for Bubba if you need a big gun on our team. Although Kuch is a machine, we don’t like him on this course in the top spot. Definitely add him to a Yahoo or other non-salary cap pick’em leagues.
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 14/1): We’ve stayed away from DJ since his hot streak sizzled after wrapping up the West Coast swing early this season. Lately he’s been contending in big events and should carry the T4 momentum from Pinehurst into Connecticut this week. This would be DJ’s seventh consecutive start as he comes in ranked 18th in GIR and fourth in adjusted scoring. We think he can earn you some fantasy cash, but he’s still priced a bit high for salary cap leagues. Like Bubba, Johnson is a long ball hitter than can grab the advantage. Bubba, Kuch, and DJ are going to rank in the same Tier this week, and we’re going with Bubba.
• Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 18/1): Keegan has been trending lately, not just for his flashy new red shoes, but because he’s begun his climb up the U.S Ryder Cup team points list. Now in 17th place, we’re sure Keegan would love to play under Captain Tom Watson and a win should solidify that. Bradley is coming off a T4 at Pinehurst where he had a legitimate chance to run away with second place. Keegan was one of three players to shoot under par in at least three rounds, proving he has what it takes to transition his game into TPC River Highlands. Priced about 30% under Kuch and Bubba in salary leagues, Keegan would be a great combo with Moore or Hoffman.
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 25/1): Well, his wrist must certainly be feeling a lot better. Day’s been fighting that problem for quite sometime and we opted to go with him last week at Pinehurst over McIlroy. We had our share of criticism for the play, but it worked out in our favor with Day notching a T4. Jason hasn’t played this track in six years (since his debut here when he finished T27). He’s priced way to high in a salary league and he wouldn’t be our pick in a tier league, but in some pick’em leagues you may need a fresh face  to play this week and Day has sat out enough this year that he could be used a little more. Consider him as more of a sleeper pick but with slightly better odds.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 Travelers Championship

• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 40/1): Hoffman is a solid tier 3 or 4 pick this week in any pick’em league. Hoffman hasn’t played since his T19 at the Memorial 3 weeks ago but before his break he made nine straight cuts and he knows TPC River Highland pretty well (finished T2 here in 2012 and T7 last year). He’s a solid sleeper pick this week and only costs about $17,500 in DraftStreet salary cap leagues. That’s a steal if we ever saw one. 
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1): Moore is money on this course. In all he has five top 15s at TPC River Highlands which includes two T2s. Moore has the swing style for this course and he’s been pretty stellar otherwise in 2014 with four top 10s and another five top 25s.   

Bonus Pick

• This week we’ll throw you a low priced a name we see fairing well on a tough TPC course. Take a look at Brooks Koepka this week. The 24-year old American has finished T4 or better twice in his last four starts including his T4 last week at Pinehurst. Prior to that, he notched a T19 in Memphis and is priced just right in most leagues. Great Tier 4 or 5 pick!

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 U.S. Open

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1): MC
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 10/1):  T12 (156,679)
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 18/1): T17 ($118,234)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 18/1): T9 ($211,715)
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 22/1):  T28 ($59.588)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 U.S. Open

• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 30/1): T12 (156,679)
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 35/1): T4 ($326,310)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $30,105,879 (Average weekly earnings = $1,254,411).
• Top 10s: 60 out of 168 players picked (35.72% of players picked).
• Top 3s: 18 out of 168 players picked (10.71% players picked).
• Missed Cuts: Only 23 out of 168 players picked (86.31% of the players picked).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 2 (50%).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 Travelers Championship.

(Cover Photo Credit) & (Top Photo Credit)