Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2014 U.S. Open

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 U.S. Open June 10th – 13th

2014 U.S. Open Fantasy Golf Preview

As 2014’s second Major Tournament gets underway, all eyes will be on Phil Mickelson and his bid to grab that elusive missing piece of his career…the Grand Slam. Mickelson’s win at the Open Championship last year notched him 3/4 of the Slam, with the US Open being the only major event missing from veteran lefty’s resume.

Most players have been reporting excellent conditions at Pinehurst as the Championship Course (No. 2) has gone through a complete restoration. As practice rounds roll on we’re hearing Stricker, Walker, and others reporting that the greens are the best they have seen on TOUR this year. The course has however undergone some major changes recently and will play to a difficulty level fans expect for a U.S. Open Championship (more on this in the course preview below).

The Field

Mickelson’s quest for the Grand Slam will be the main focus of the media buzz this week, however, 58 of the top 60 in the world will also be at Pinehurst No. 2 fighting for the title of National Champion. Bubba Watson, by far the hottest player on TOUR, will take on defending champion Justin Rose and recent winner Adam Scott in his own attempt to win a second major this year.

Tiger Woods, a three-time U.S. Open champion, remains sidelined this week. Woods is currently recovering from a recent back surgery with no clear timetable on when we will return.

Seventy-nine entrants emerged from a grueling 36-hole sectional qualifying challenge which includes twenty-two who survived both local and sectional qualifying tests. With a field this elite, it’s crucial that we compare a few more variables in order to narrow down the best seven players we see winning this event.

The Course

Pinehurst Resort (No. 2) measures in at a whopping 7,562 yards and plays as a par 70. The world-famous course was originally built back in 1907 and was designed by Donald Ross. Ross continued to refine Pinehurst up until his passing in the late 40’s. The course (resort) was built on North Carolina’s sand hills and the No. 2 course has been deemed the best of the many courses that sit on the Pinehurst grounds.

The U.S. Open will be making its third visit to Pinehurst after previous editions in 1999 and 2005. Unlike Merion last year, Pinehurst is not known for an abundance of heavy rough, but, with the newly renovated track comes an old school twist…no rough. Fairways abruptly stop, rolling seamlessly into sandy brush areas and hard ground surfaces. The slightest hook or slice may send a ball into a sandy embankment leaving players scrambling to save par or even bogey. We’re pretty confident that the winner of this year’s Open may be lucky to get away a victory at no more than -3 to -5.

The plethora of undulating greens are ranked as possibly the hardest on TOUR, but this week it seems as if they are rolling perfectly (according to some early post-practice round interviews). You can bet that ttraight drivers, scrambling ability,  and fairway accuracy will be the key statistics for our fantasy draft this week.

Rain threatens the area most of the week, so be prepared for plenty of halted play.

Phil Mickelson Reviews Pinehurst No. 2

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Weather Forecast for Pinehurst, NC (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (June 12) 85 degrees, 50% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (June 13) 86 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 3: Saturday (June 14) 90 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (June 15) 88 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.

2013 Results

Last year we picked Justin Rose to win the U.S. Open and the Englishman did just that. The win at Marion Golf Club marked England’s first major trophy in 17 years.

Rose finished strong on Sunday, a final round that was marked by the nineteen lead changes that took place over the day. Rose carded an even-par 70 on Sunday and finished two shots ahead of Mickelson and Jason Day, even though he had made a bogey at No. 16 to fall into a 3-way tie with Mickelson and Mahan. After Mickelson and Mahan made bogey and double bogey respectively, Rose stood alone on top to capture the 2013 U.S. Open Trophy.

No Title

Justin Rose wins the 2013 US Open Championship after the final round as Phil Mickelson loses the lead and the win at Merion Golf Club.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 9:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN).
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 p.m . – 5:00 p.m. ET (NBC).
  • Thursday-Friday, 5:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 12:00 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. (NBC)

• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, 10:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN Radio).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 2:oo p.m. – 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN Radio).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the 2014 U.S. Open Golf Championship iPhone and iPad apps.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

All the stars will compete at Pinehurst this week, and with a star-studded field it’s always important to keep in mind some of the lower priced/higher-odds, fantasy yielding players that can easily win this event although not being spotlighted to do so. Instead of jumping right for the top ranked players in the world, we urge that you to be a little more critical in making your picks this week. Although names like Scott, Bubba, and Kuchar will be on everyone’s radar, you have to ask yourself whether or not they are the best picks for this particular course, and this weather forecast. That’s where we’ll do the work for you…

So far this year, our fantasy staff has picked seven winners in twenty-three tournaments, along with 58 Top 10s, 18 Top 3s, and we’re still happily above an 85% (86.33% to be exact) “made-cut” ratio, which, as we always point out, is an important stat to winning fantasy golf because simply, missed cuts earn no money. Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition and use our sleeper picks to help win your DraftStreet or other cash prize leagues. Don’t forget to take a look at our stats below. Although it was a rough week last week, we should be able to bounce back this week and hopefully pick our second major winner of the year and our fifth out of the last six majors played since April 2013.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 U.S. Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 U.S. Open

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1): As mentioned earlier, there’s simply no denying that Bubba is easily one of the hottest players on TOUR and his performance at this year’s Masters silenced critics who said he couldn’t close out a lead at a big event. Bubba is a two-time winner this season with four more Top 3s to his name in 2014, and most importantly, he continues to play well from tee to green. Ranking second in Bogey avoidance should give him an edge, but is Pinehurst a track for Bubba? The lengthy 7,562 yard track certainly plays to his “long ball” favor and if he can keep the ball in the fairway, we think he has a solid shot of grabbing his second major this year. Bubba is our top pick in any salary or pick’em league.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 10/1): Ranking 5th in bogey avoidance is a key statistic heading into the No. 2 course. Kuchar has only one Top 10 in eleven starts at the U.S. Open, but he has nine Top 10s in eighteen events played this season. His low ball flight may bite him here but Kuch knows how to scramble to save pars, which, as mentioned before, is going to be the key to winning on this course.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 18/1): We’re taking Spieth over the favorite Rory McIlroy here (we’re not yet convinced that Rory can pull off closing out another major just yet, despite his recent win in Europe). Last week Spieth took a much needed rest after making his 15th of 17 cuts two weeks ago at the Memorial. The young gun just seems to make cuts and has proven his ability to take on the big stages (T2 Masters  and T4 PLAYERS). Best of all, if you’re playing in a salary cap league you may get away with a lower price going with Spieth over McIlroy here, and as crazy as this sounds for a guy his age…Speith is due for a win in our opinion.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 18/1): Simply put, the new World No. 1 continues to play lights out golf. Although 16th in bogey avoidance, Scott has the long and high ball flight capability that Pinehurst No. 2 requires along with a tremendous short game to boot. Scott may be a bit too expensive in some salary cap leagues (watch those numbers) but we like him better than Henrik Stenson or Webb Simpson this week.
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 22/1): Don’t write the crafty lefty off just yet! Phil comes into this event more determined to win than any other player in the field. We’re a bit nervous these greens may eat him alive, but his game is good enough right now to give him a fighting chance. Obviously we can’t overlook the MC at Augusta and Sawgrass, but we’re taking his recent play in Memphis and what’s at stake heavily into consideration this week.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 U.S. Open

• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 30/1):  Truth be told, we had a tough time holding Furyk off of our Top 5 list this week. He certainly has his game in tune at the moment and seeing him win this event again wouldn’t shock anyone. The 2003 champ leads the TOUR in scrambling and ranks fourth in bogey avoidance which should give him an edge this week. Furyk is currently worth about $18,000 in salary cap leagues (a bargain if we’ve ever seen one) and we feel that he can your team’s silent killer this week. Instead of picking a McIlroy/Matsuyama combo in DraftStreet this week, try playing these two guys (Day) together for much less cost, it should pay off in the end.
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 35/1): Jason seems to be feeling fine and striking the ball well. Day has 2 runner-ups in this event and owns the highest ball flight on TOUR. His game is ideal for the Pinehurst track and he definitely has what it takes to win any event that he enters. The injured wrist is always concern, but he claims its in good shape. Day is decently priced in DraftStreet salary cap leagues at around $20,000 which is $8,000 behind the top player and would make a great combo with Furyk.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The FedEx St. Jude Classic

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 8/1):  T24 ($49,445)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1):  T32 ($28,842)
• John Senden (Golficity Odds 22/1):  MC
• Lee Westwood(Golficity Odds 28/1):  MC
• David Toms (Golficity Odds 35/1):  MC

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The FedEx St. Jude Classic

• Scott Stallings (Golficity Odds 50/1) T32 ($28,842)
• David Hearn (Golficity Odds 60/1):  MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $29,076,674 (Average tournament 30.43% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 58 out of 161 players picked (36.02% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 18 out of 161 players picked (11.18% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 22 out of 161 players picked (86.33% of the picks made the cut in 2014).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 1 (100%)

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 U.S. Open Championship with fellow members.

(Cover Photo Credit) & (Top Photo Credit)