Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions – 2014 FedEx St. Jude Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 FedEx St. Jude Classic June 5th – 8th

Last Week’s Fantasy Notes

We’re sure many people didn’t see Hideki Matsuyama winning the Memorial Tournament this past week among such an field of elite players. Regardless, a handful of our picks last week found themselves in the Top 3 at some point over the weekend before falling off in the end. In all, we were able to make 6 of 7 cuts and raked in more than $620,000 in total fantasy earnings, keeping us solidly at a tournament average of $1.316 million (22 events).

The unfortunate and unlikely missed cut by Justin Rose put us at 18 missed cuts out of 154 players picked in 2014 (88.3% cuts made) and still at less missed cuts than tournaments played in 2014. We stayed away from Mickelson, Stroud, and Holmes last week, a group most talking heads we’re begging fantasy players to start. They finished T49, T69, T75 respectively, so chances are if you followed our lead you stayed out of some hot water there.

When all is said and done, with all the low-priced names on top of last week’s leaderboard, we’re happy to have banking $620,000 and are set to move on to the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week the TOUR moves to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Classic, marking the last start before the second major of the year, the US Open. While a number of notable players will be heading to Pinehurst to begin their practice rounds, guys like Phil Mickelson, Zach and Dustin Johnson, and Matt Kuchar will instead hang around in Memphis for a final tune-up.

Harris English will try to step out of shadows to defend his title with a total purse of $5.8 million and 500 FedExCup points to the winner on the line. The soon to be 26-year old Georgian hasn’t finished in the Top 10 since Feb 23 and has certainly seen his share of missed cuts lately. Mickelson has some legal issues hanging over him this week as investigators are still looking into potential insider stock transaction activity that has Lefty grabbing headlines everywhere. We’re unsure how the negative press will affect Phil, but legal issues or not Micklson has seemed a bit lost this year. He’ll be a better look next week at Pinehurst as he tries to win a major he’s yet to record, the US Open Championship.

The Field

The field this week will be packed with many up-and-comers who have carved out names for themselves this year on TOUR. Players like Matt Every, Russell Knox, Russell Henley, and JB Holmes are all guys you simply can’t discount on this course.

As mentioned, Phil Mickelson will be in the field as well – he finished runner-up to Harris English last year. In total there will be six of the top 25 in this week’s world rankings in the field.

With the US Open approaching, more Europeans are heading across the pond to prepare for the upcoming major and plenty will be competing this week. The red hot Victor Dubuisson and former British Open champ Darren Clarke, as well as David Toms who a two-time St. Jude champ, and all-time earnings leader in Memphis will be in attendance. Lastly, one of our favorite Big Break contestants Isaac “Sasquatch” Sanchez was granted an exemption into this week’s events after winning “Big Break NFL.” We caught up Isaac not too long ago for a fun interview, but we don’t suggest putting much of anything on him making it far this week.

The Course

Located Southeast of Memphis, TPC Southwind measures in at 7,239 yards and plays to a par 70. The course was built in 1987 on what was once a dairy farm and was designed by Ron Prichard who included plenty lots of water throughout the rolling countryside terrain. In 2004, the course underwent a facelift which consisted of reshaping certain holes to add yardage and replacing the bentgrass greens with Bermuda grass which is better able at handling the summer heat. TPC Southwind’s par-3 11th hole has a similar feel to the infamous 17th at TPC Sawgrass, which plays as a short wedge/iron shot over water to a small island green.

This week rain will threaten the area for most of the event, and the forecast calls for it to be quite hot and humid.

Photo by TPC.com

Weather Forecast for Memphis, TN (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (June 5) 86 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (June 6) 84 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.
• Round 3: Saturday (June 7) 87 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (June 8) 83 degrees, 40% chance of rain, scattered T-storms.

2013 Results

Harris English won his first PGA TOUR victory at last year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic after draining birdie putts on 16 and 17 to retain as a two-shot victory over Phil Mickelson and Scott Stallings. Harris came from just one stroke behind the lead as he entered the day but tripped up with three bogeys before making the turn. Luckily, he was able to right the ship, coming back with birdies at 10 and 11 and capitalized on Stalling’s blow up double-bogey on 15. Mickelson also made a push after three birdies in his last five holes and almost holed an eagle on 18. Despite the bumpy ride English held on to win last year but he has fallen silent as of late. As we’ll mention in a minute, we’re not sure if he’ll be a great candidate for a repeat at this year’s event.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 FedEx St. Jude Classic

In the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Classic from TPC Southwind, Harris English fired a 1-under 69 to win his first PGA TOUR title. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (GC), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).

• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, 12:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The field at this week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic is less star-studded than last week at Muirfield and with many players heading up to Pinehurst for some early practice rounds, we find ourselves combing through the names of players we normally don’t pick on week to week basis. Regardless, we have a solid idea of who should shine the most in Memphis and we’re confident we can keep our cuts-made ratio above 88% this week.

So far this year, our fantasy staff has picked seven winners in twenty-two tournaments, along with 58 Top 10s, 18 Top 3s, and we’re still riding our 88% “made-cut” ratio, which, as we always point out, is a crucial stat to winning fantasy golf because simply, missed cuts earn no money. Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition and use our sleeper picks to help win your DraftStreet or other cash prize leagues. Don’t forget to take a look at our stats below…we still have more Top 3’s picked than players who missed the cut out of 154 picks YTD!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 FedEx St. Jude Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 FedEx St. Jude Classic

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 6/1): The name of the game in fantasy is “cuts-made” and “top-money earners.” Even if it looks as if he’s cooled lately, this guy easily owns both of these titles. This is Kuch’s first appearance since 2007 and he comes into this week with a strong T15 finish following a rough 74 opening round in Ohio. In all Kuchar has 9 top 10s this season, and he’s a no-brainer again this week.
  • Update 6/4/14 – We’ve just been informed of Matt Kuchar’s late withdrawal from this week’s event.  See below for our substitute fifth selection.
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 8/1): DJ proves to be solid in and out, and although he hasn’t made much noise since the West Coast swing in early January, we think he has his game where it needs to be before the US Open next week, where he is a definite favorite. He won here in 2012 and followed that up with a T10 last year. With an impressive six top 15s this season (which includes a T14 at Colonial two weeks ago), we think he’s got a great chance of winning this week, and he’ll certainly be gunning for a momentum boost before Pinehurst.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1): Palmer is a solid play for any salary cap leaguers this week. He has the ability to consistently climb up leaderboards and he tied for third at TPC Southwind two years ago. Palmer also followed that T3 up with a solo 4th last year. On top of his excellent record at this event, Ryan has been playing quite well as of late, capped off by his T5 at Colonial two weeks ago.
• John Senden (Golficity Odds 22/1): Senden is another low priced player who can easily give your salary cap roster this week. Senden carries a T5 from two weeks ago (and a hot season) into Memphis this week and there is no arguing the fact that his game is good enough to win. It’s worth noting that he wouldn’t be our top choice in a DraftStreet pick’em league, but he’d be perfectly slotted in any GolfZING or Yahoo! roster.
• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds 28/1): Westwood is a silent killer. Plenty of people are overlooking him this week and he’s worth a strong consideration despite being too costly on a salary cap roster. DraftStreet has him as high as 4th in cost on the lists, but you can build a cheap team around him and try the luck route. Westy won his debut at TPC Southwind in 2010 and placed T11 the following year. Currently, Lee has 3 top 10s in his last five starts which included a T6 at THE PLAYERS. Time is running out for a Major championship…something he’s been craving for years, so we think he’ll start ramping up his game before next week.
• Substitute Selection: David Toms (Golficity Odds 35/1): With the recent withdrawal from Kuchar, we’ve opted to add a Toms to this week’s selection list. David is a two-time champion at this event, as well as the all-time St. Jude Classic earnings leader.  Toms finished T5 at Colonial in his last start two weeks ago, along with his extensive experience at this event makes him a true contender to win. He has two Top 10s this season and looks to be turning up the dial as the US Open approaches. Although priced high in most salary-cap leagues, Toms would make a solid team paired with Senden and Hearn. Value him a little more than a sleeper this week.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 FedEx St. Jude Classic

• Scott Stallings (Golficity Odds 50/1): The safe names to put down here are McDowell and Simpson, or even a Zach Johnson, but going with the herd is never going to set you apart in your fantasy league. Our job is to offer you names of cheaper players that we think will place better than the top names and here we’re going with Stallings. He tied for second last year and followed that up with a T25 the following year. This is crapshoot for sure, but he is a solid dark horse option for a super low fantasy price.
• David Hearn (Golficity Odds 60/1): Hearn has been pretty consistent as of late. Some would pick a Russell Henley in this spot, but we think Hearn has the hotter hand right now. His five consecutive cuts made, which included a T6 at THE PLAYERS, gives him a little bit of an edge over some of the others guys struggling and missing cuts (like Fowler and Knox). Did we mention he is 4-for-4 at TPC Southwind with a T18 last year? Don’t bite the Harris English bullet this time around…go with Hearn if you need a cheap spot filled.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Memorial Tournament

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 8/1):  T15 ($102,300)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 10/1):  T4 ($272,300)
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 15/1):  T15 ($102,300)
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 18/1):  T19 ($65,238)
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 23/1):  MC

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win The Memorial Tournament

• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 35/1): T57 ($13,764)
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 35/1):  T19 ($65,238)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $28,969,545 (Average tournament winnings of $1,316,797).
• Winners picked: 7 winners selected out of 22 tournaments (31.82% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 58 out of 154 players picked (37.66% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 18 out of 154 players picked (11.69% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 18 out of 154 players picked (88.31% of the picks made the cut in 2014).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 1 (100%)

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse to discuss this week’s picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic with fellow members.

(Cover Photo Credit)