Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

This Week’s Tournament Preview

Players are continuing to rack up FedExCup points in this short fall series schedule ahead of what will certainly be a hotly contested 2014-2015 season. This week’s WGC-HSBC Champions in particular will attract most of the best players in the world, as we’re sure to see a robust field battle it out at Sheshan Golf Club.

Sergio Garcia sits far behind Rory McIlroy in 2nd place on the European Tour’s Race to Dubai points leaderboard, but a win for Sergio this week could cut that deficit in half – and he’s coming off a T2 last week. You also can’t rule out last year’s Race to Dubai winner Henrik Stenson who is still in the hunt to overthrow both guys in front of him.

Fans will of course still miss Tiger, but the PGA TOUR’s biggest star is beginning to swing and feeling much better.

It’s also worth noting that last year’s event winner, Dustin Johnson, won’t be around to defend his title since he is still on a personal leave (or suspension, depending on how you see it) from the game.

Note: Be sure to check your fantasy league pick cutoff time given the international time difference for this event!

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Despite Graham DeLaet’ s second hole withdrawal due to back issues, our fantasy numbers we’re still pretty stellar for the week. Having Garcia and Woodland on our roster helped immensely as both finished T2 combining for just over $1.045 million in fantasy earnings. Our other picks also helped round out the week finishing with total weekly fantasy earnings of $1.352 million and bringing us to a new weekly average of $777,000 in earnings with four events in the books.

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The Field

This week’s 79 player field will feature FedExCup champion Billy Horschel, Masters champion Bubba Watson, and U.S. Open winner (by a landslide) Martin Kaymer. World No. 1 Rory McIlroy will sit this one out as he heads to court to handle some business issues, so with that omission No. 2 ranked Adam Scott becomes the highest ranked player in the WGC-HSBC Champions field.

Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, Jimmy Walker, and Justin Rose are a few additionally notable names who making up this week’s field and it’s also worth noting that every member of the winning European Ryder Cup team (despite Rory) will be playing his week while only six players from the USA Team will make the trip.

Being an invitational, you won’t see any of the Web.com names that we have made up such a large portion of the field over the past few weeks.

DeLaet appears to be back in the field this week, but with his WD last week from back injury, we’re not going to be looking his way. We’ll break down the field in more detail and select our favorite seven players to win below.

The Course

Sheshan International Golf Club (West Course) measures in at 7,266 yards and plays as a par 72. This old design brought to life by designers Nelson & Haworth has played host to this event for the past nine years (except for 2012 when the event briefly moved to Mission Hills). Since 2005, Sheshan International has produced victories from Dustin Johnson, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia (Ian Poulter won the Mission Hills edition in 2012).

Sheshan International opened in 2004 as Shanghai’s first golf club and remains one of its most exclusive venues. Even Tiger Woods has labeled this course “the crowning jewel of all of Asian golf.”

Photo by SheshanGolf.com

Weather Forecast for Shanghai, China (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Nov 6) 69 degrees, 20% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Friday (Nov 7) 63 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Nov 8) 63 degrees, 60% chance of rain, showers.
• Round 4: Sunday (Nov 9) 65 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2013 Results

Last year, Dustin Johnson dropped a perfectly executed chip-in eagle from just off the green on 16 to put the tournament out of the reach of returning champion Ian Poulter. DJ snapped the tournament scoring record on his way to a three-shot victory after playing the final six holes at an untouchable 5-under par. He concluded Sunday with a 6-under 66, giving him the event record of 24-under for his eighth career PGA TOUR victory.

Poulter started the final round three shots behind DJ but quickly closed in on the young gun with a birdie/birdie start. Poulter eventually took a one-shot lead into the 13th before Johnson crushed his drive well over the dogleg to set himself up for a clutch birdie that began his record-setting closing series of holes.

For more, here is wrap-up of Round 4 from last year’s edition of The WGC HSBC Championship:

Dustin Johnson wins HSBC: Round 4 Recap

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Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Wednesday – Saturday 10:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m. EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • No radio coverage this week.
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Wet and cool weather in Shanghai has resulted in the soft turf and what will be some very challenging greens. Some iffy weather may remain through this week, but we’re not too concerned with that. We want guys who can handle the putters this week, and with the Stimpmeter running at 11.5, you’ll certainly need some short stick heroes to help your fantasy roster this week.

Don’t just pick up all-stars this week, just about anyone in the field has a shot at winning this one and some of the lower priced players may just play into your favor. We’ll look to combine great putters with high ranking “strokes gained tee-to-green” players when we offer up our top 7 picks to win the WGC HSBC Championship.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 3/1): With last week’s T2 finish Sergio still has a chance to edge out Rory in the Race to Dubai. Garcia is coming into Sheshan hot off that T2 at the CIMB last week which makes a remarkable three top 10s in his last three starts. It’s also worth noting that he finished 4th here last year after recording a field-low 63, and he won this event in in 2008 on this same course.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 8/1): Rose is still on a hot streak after notching a T4 at the TOUR Championship which he followed with another T4 finish last week at the BMW Masters. In between those two events Rose also came in with a promising 3-0-2 record at the Ryder Cup. With some previous success on this course (finished 5th in this event last year), Rose would certainly make for a great combo punch with Sergio this week in a salary cap league.
• Gary Woodland Golficity Odds 12/1): Look for most to go with either Fowler, McDowell, or Scott in this spot, but we’ve been studying Woodland for quite sometime and he looked lights out last week after coming up just short to Moore to finish T2. It’s a bit of a gamble with this being his debut in this event, but we’re confident that his driving ability can move him up this leaderboard.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 15/1): Normally we’d have Rickie up a few spots here but he’s been out of competition since the Ryder Cup and that potential rustiness concerns us. However, if Fowler can carry some of his momentum from this past summer into Shanghai he may just reemerge as a winner and head into the January schedule with 500 FedExCup points on the board. Regardless, you have to love his 8 Top 10s in his last 9 starts worldwide.
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 18/1): We thought about giving Stenson a look here, but there dollar value in most salary cap leagues is essentially the same, so we’re favoring Scott on this course. Although he finished T38 at the Japan Open (Adam’s last start), he has a decent track record here with solid finishes in both 2010 and 2011.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Jaime Donaldson (Golficity Odds 30/1): Donaldson has been making quite a bit of noise over in Europe lately. He’s finished no worse than solo seventh (European Masters) in his last four stroke-play starts, including a T4 at last week’s BMW Masters. Jamie also competed here last year where he finished with a respectable T8. He’ll be a bit pricey for a sleeper pick in salary cap, but most pick’em leagues may overlook him.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the WGC-HSBC Champions

• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 40/1): Palmer is a great sleeper pick at a decent value this week. There is no denying that he’s been on a tear recently and this course suits him well. Palmer comes into Shanghai with four top 10s in his last seven starts including his recent T8 finish at the BMW Masters, and looks to have a lot more to prove.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 CIMB Classic

• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 10 /1): T2 ($ 522,667)
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 14/1): T21 ($72,800)
• Charl Schwartzel Golficity Odds 20/1): T19 ($94,500)
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 26/1): T2 ($ 522,667)
• Graham DeLeat (Golficity Odds 35/1): WD

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 CIMB Classic

• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds 50/1): T13 ($123,677)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 CIMB Classic

• Anirban Lahiri (Golficity Odds 75/1): T52 ($16,415)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats to Date: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played YTD: 4.
• Total Fantasy Dollars: $3,110,786 (Average = $777,696).
• Total Top 10s: 8 out of 28 players picked (28.57%).
• Total Top 3s: 2 out of 21 players picked (14.29%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 3 out of 28 players picked (89.29% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)