Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – OHL Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 OHL Classic at Mayakoba

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week will mark the final fall series event during which a player can earn 2014-2015 FedExCup points before the winter break.

The big story this week will be the fact that Sang Moon Bae, who currently sits in second place in the FedExCup standings, has opted to sit out the final two weeks heading into the winter break. Bae is only 45 points behind Robert Streb, who jumped up with his own outstanding performance last week.

Returning champion Harris English is still trying to find his groove and has not been victorious since his last win, which came exactly one year ago at this very. English has missed 6 of 9 cuts since July and hasn’t shown any signs of dominance since his last win. His four top-10 finishes on the West Coast swing in early 2014 looked promising but that momentum quickly fizzled as the season kicked into gear.

It will be a dogfight for last minute FedExCup points as there will be no additional FedExCup points eligible events after this week until the PGA TOUR squares off again in Hawaii this coming January.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week the fantasy golf world was stunned by Bubba Watson’s chip-in eagle which force a playoff and opened the door for his win in China. Even with the upset, our fantasy picks still held their own, bringing in a total of $816,050 for the week, which included a T3 from Rickie Fowler.

This brings our 5-week total for the emerging 2014-2015 season to just about $4 million in total fantasy dollars with only three missed cuts out of 35 players selected.

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The Field

This week’s field will consist of some past fall series winners such as Ben Martin (Shriners Hospitals Open) and Robert Streb (McGladrey Classic). They’ll join defending champion Harris English on a dangerous track in Mexico where you won’t see many other notable players in the field during what will most likely be a quiet week with 2014 winding down.

Most of the top ranked players will be spending the rest of 2014 tuning up their games for what will most certainly be an exciting and challenging 2015 schedule.

Given the lack of more popular names in the field this week, we’ll have to dissect the field a little more carefully to see who has the greatest chances on winning among the 131 players present.

The Course

El Camaleón Golf Club measures in at 6,987 yards and plays as a par 71. The course was designed in 2004 by Greg Norman and was dubbed “The Chameleon” due to its three distinct landscape changes. These changes include a tropical jungle, firm mangroves, and tough sand filled beaches along the Riviera Maya. By far the coolest design aspect of this course is the underground cavern which sits in the middle of the first fairway, which will be the 7th for this tournament.

The PGATOUR first came to El Camaleón back 2007 and in 2016 the track will also serve as one of two hosts for the World Amateur Team Championships.

Despite the changes in yardages this course has endured over the years, El Camaleón continues to have the ability to reward veteran ball-strikers. This week the weather is looking particularly favorable for some high scores, with the course predicted to run pretty firm and dry throughout the week – that is until Sunday when the rain is suppose to push through. The only weather challenge to early rounds here will be the wind which will push off the ocean and cause some danger for the greens tucked behind bunkers that sit along the coast line.

Photo via PGATOUR.com

Weather Forecast for Playa del Carmen, Mexico (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Nov 13) 77 degrees, 40% chance of rain, AM showers.
• Round 2: Friday (Nov 14) 79 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 3: Saturday (Nov 15) 78 degrees, 40% chance of rain, showers.
• Round 4: Sunday (Nov 16) 79 degrees, 80% chance of rain, T-storms.

2013 Results

In 2013 Harris English secured his second PGA TOUR win at El Camaleón, setting a tournament record 263 on his way to a dominant four stroke victory. English carded a third round 68 before adding a final day 65 on Sunday to finish with a total of 21-under par. One funny thing worth noting is that English had borrowed a driver from Billy Horschel that week after breaking his own club in Malaysia a few weeks prior. The good karma must have paid off for Billy since he went on to win the FedExCup 10 months later.

Here is wrap-up of Round 4 from last year’s edition of The OHL Classic at Mayakoba:

Harris English wins OHL Classic: Round 4 Recap

In the final round of the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, Harris English shot a 6-under 65 and wins by 4 strokes. Full coverage of English’s victory at http://www.pgatour.com/ . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Sunday 2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Sunday 12:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. EST (PGA TOUR Radio on SirusXM)
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

This week marks the final chance for players to earn FedExCup points before 2015 arrives with the Hawaiian and West Coast swing this coming January. Players with less clout on TOUR will bring nothing but their A game before the superstars retake the tournament fields and send some players back to the Web.com ranks.

Overall, this week’s track is quite scorable and long hitters should fair well. We’ll be looking particularly closely at the all-around and tee-to-green stats in order to highlight the players who are coming into the week with a hot hand.

Greens will run quick, so putting will also be a huge factor for success here at El Camaleón.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 OHL Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 OHL Classic

• Robert Streb (Golficity Odds 12/1): The current FedExCup points leader is playing some solid golf as of late. With Top 10s in all of his last three starts, Streb currently ranks No. 1 in the all-around and is a force to be reckoned with on TOUR this fall season. We could easily see another strong finish for him on this track.
• Chris Stroud (Golficity Odds 16/1): Stroud’s been quiet as of late but we love his game for this course. Although he has no top 35s in his last four starts, he can shine here at El Camaleón given the relatively “weaker” field.  Stroud also comes into the week with top fives in the last three editions of this event.
• Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 22/1): This veteran is exactly the type of ball-striker we’re looking for this week, and his record here shows it, including a T19 in 2011 and T3 last year. Bohn finished T2 last week at Sanderson Farms and is currently ranked 18th in FedExCup points, showing signs of something to prove this season.
• Brian Stuard (Golficity Odds 26/1): Stuard should be an automatic this week for pick’em leagues given that both of his career-best runner-up finishes occurred on this course. Stuard also tied for 13th at the CIMB Classic two weeks ago. As a word of note, you may want to lay off of him in salary-cap leagues where we’re seeing his value as a bit overpriced.
• Harris English (Golficity Odds 30/1): We highly suggest not picking English in salary cap leagues as most leagues out there have him as the highest placed player. With 30/1 odds he’s more of a sleeper pick at best, but his knowledge of the course and entry as the defending champ has us putting him in our 7-man pick’em league this year. If he’s a tier one selection in your league, choose someone else above to fill the spot. Keep in mind that in three tourneys this season and he already has two missed cuts. Simply put, this could be English’s bounce back week, or it could be another bust. Choose wisely.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 OHL Classic

• Rory Sabbatini (Golficity Odds 12/1): A lot of sites have Sabbatini picked high, but don’t bet the ranch on him. Sabbatini hasn’t made much noise on the PGA TOUR in quite some time but his only top five in the last two years did come from a T3 here in 2013. He tied for fifth here in 2011 as well and has proven that he can earn some money here at El Camaleón. More recently Sabbatini is coming off a T22 at The McGladrey and a T8 at the CIMB. Could the sunny Mexican coast trigger the return of the cowboy hat? We certainly hope so!

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 OHL Classic

• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 12/1): Howell usually shines this time of year and then goes into hiding when the calendar wraps back around. He’s 5-for-5 at El Camaleón with four top 20s including a T6 last year. He also has top 20 finishes in two of last three starts. Watch that he might be priced high in salary cap leagues, but Howell will make a solid sleeper in any other pick’em situation.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

• Sergio Garcia: T28 ($68,500)
• Justin Rose: T48 ($49,300)
• Gary Woodland: T56 ($45,250)
• Rickie Fowler: T3 ($381,667)
• Adam Scott: T12 ($108,000)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

• Jaime Donaldson T24 ($73,500)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 WGC-HSBC Champions

• Ryan Palmer T22 ($89,833)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats to Date: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played YTD: 5.
• Total Fantasy Dollars: $3,926,836 (Average = $785,367 per week).
• Total Top 10s: 9 out of 35 players picked (25.71%).
• Total Top 3s: 5 out of 35 players picked (14.29%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 3 out of 35 players picked (91.43% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 OHL Classic at Mayakoba with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)