Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Deutsche Bank Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Deutsche Bank Championship

The 2015 Deutsche Bank Championship Fantasy Preview

Last week we had some doubters who questioned our decision to bench Spieth and choose Jason Day as our “must pick” horse of the week—but with Spieth missing the cut and Day winning The Barclays, it’s safe to say we nailed it!  We’ll talk more about our perfect week at Plainfield CC in the next section but first, let’s set you up for TPC Boston and round two of the FedExCup Playoffs.

The field has chopped down to 100 players this week and Rory McIlroy will be back in full force after taking a week off to further heal his ailing ankle.  Rory will play this week as the World No. 1 again after regaining the crown from Jordan Spieth who missed the cut at The Barclays.  McIlroy was bumped from 9th to 15th place in the FedExCup points standings due to his elected absence last week but Rory is still in great position to make a run for the cup.

The question this week is do you continue to ride the Jay-Day train into Boston or do we see a cool off and resurgence of Spieth and/or McIlroy dominance.  Decisions, decisions!  Regardless, you can count on Day, Spieth, and McIlroy being the most expensive players in fantasy salary cap leagues this week for sure.

Speaking of Spieth, Jordan has a lot to prove this week and we certainly love picking players with that motivation going into an event.  He’ll be coming into TPC Boston off of his worst tournament finish since the early spring after firing a 74-73 in his opening rounds in New Jersey last week.  Here’s an interesting stat: last week’s missed cut was Jordan’s second finish outside the top 10 since his missed cut at THE PLAYERS in May!  So does he bounce back this week?  Do you pick him or bench him again?  We’ll key you in on all of this in our fantasy picks segment below.

After this week, the FedExCup field will chop down to 70 players and head to Illinois for the BMW Championship.  That is when the weekly fantasy picks get tougher and tougher!

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

As mentioned in the preview, we hit the nail on the head by picking Day over Spieth as last week we offered our Premium Members a different approach to picking a roster.  We did this by first identifying the best players to choose from in their respected salary range and then selecting our favorite of the bunch.  Here’s how we faired:

• Horse Pick: We chose Day (WINNER) over Spieth (MC).
• Mid-Tier: We chose Justin Rose (T16) over Dustin Johnson (T9).
• Mid-Tier:  We chose Bubba Watson (3rd) over Rickie Fowler (MC) and Brooks Koepka (MC)
• Low-Tier: We chose Jim Furyk (T11) and Paul Casey (T39) over Hideki Matusyama  (T13) and Brandt Snedeker (MC)
• Sleeper: We chose Robert Streb (T39) over David Lingmerth (MC)
• Super Sleeper: We chose Danny Lee (T30) over Justin Thomas (T16) and Jimmy Walker (T69)

As you can see, despite not picking Thomas over Lee and DJ over Rose, our selections performed extremely well last week and we avoided a lot of guys who didn’t hang around to play the weekend (not to mention a few that were heavy “favorites” elsewhere).

With the Jason Day win we now have successfully picked 13 winners out of 39 tournaments and have made 14 of our last 14 cuts (including sleepers).  We’ve also extended our streak to 7 winners picked in the last 11 events and just like Jason Day we’re are only beginning to heat up!

Here’s a Monday morning email from a happy Premium Member who used our picks to score nicely on DraftKings last week – you’re very welcome Martin:

The Field

As we wind down to just 100 remaining players (there will most likely be 99 this week as Sergio Garcia is expected to sit again), things will obviously get even more exciting this week for the second leg of the playoffs.

Regaining World No. 1 title while having his ankle propped up on a pillow must have been nice for Rory McIlroy but break time is over as he has a lot to play for this week.  All the big names we saw last week (for the most part) will be back at it again with some of them earning with a cushy points advantage—like Henrik Stenson who broke out of a silent season with a second place finish and jumping 41 spots to 4th on the FedExCup list after Sunday’s closing round.

As a side note, Fowler and Spieth took a 23 minute car ride north west to Balustrol Golf Club (the site of the 2016 PGA Championship) after missing the cut at The Barclays to get a fresh look at the track before heading up to Boston to redeem themselves after a disappointing week.

A little @PGAChampionship practice round today with @jordanspieth and our tour loopers

A photo posted by Rickie Fowler (@rickiefowler) on Aug 29, 2015 at 2:50pm PDT

Here’s a list of the full field for this week’s 2015 Deutsche Bank Championship.

The Course

TPC Boston measures in a little longer than Plainfield at 7,242 yards and will play as a par 71 this week.  The track is located in between between Boston and Rhode Island and is certainly a scoreable course.

Originally launching in the 2002, this Arnold Palmer Design went through a Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon facelift only 5-years after opening.  With tricky fairway undulations and fast greens, the track certainly presents its share of challenges, but players still have had much success in finding birdies or better on this course.

The 18 hole record here at TPC Boston was set by Vijay Singh in 2006 with an impressive 61, a score that was matched two years later by Mike Weir.  Henrik Stenson matched the 72 hole record with 262 only two years ago during his FedExCup championship run.

Here’s a look at the infamous 18th hole where Billy Horschel blew his own chances of winning by putting his approach shot into the junk.

No. 18 at TPC Boston

No Description

[gard group=’3′]

Weather Forecast for Norton, MA

Not much to report here except blue skies and sunshine all week.  Temperatures may dip a little bit for the first round tee times on Friday but overall nothing from Mother Nature should threaten this week’s event (including the practice rounds).

Last Year’s Results from the Deutsche Bank Championship

In 2014 Chris Kirk overcame the guy who eventually went on to win the cup (Billy Horschel) as he had his moment in the sun at TPC Boston last year.  Kirk played his final 36 holes in impressive fashion without a single bogey which helped him come back from a 10-shot deficit after Round 1.  He capped off this impressive run by firing a 6-under on Monday where he took the outright lead for the first time at No.13 and never looked back.

Kirk’s only threat was Horschel coming into 18 and we can all remember his chunky second shot into the junk which led to a disappointing bogey.  The DB Championship win marked his second victory of the season but he eventually fell short in the FedExCup title later at East Lake.

For more, here’s a full recap of Round 4 of the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship:

Chris Kirk holds off the field for win at Deutsche Bank

In the final round of the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship, Chris Kirk was untouchable and shot 66 to win by two to secure his third career PGA TOUR win. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

Note that this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship starts on Friday September 4th with the final round concluding on Monday September 7th.

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Friday – Saturday: 2:30 pm – 6:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday: 1:00 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday: 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (NBC)
  • Monday: 11:30 am – 1:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Monday: 1:30 pm – 6:00 pm EST (NBC)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Friday – Saturday: 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Sunday – Monday: 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Deutsche Bank Championship this Week

With a lot of the focus shifting to next week’s big $10 million football fantasy kickoff it’s fairly safe to say the DraftKings will not be hosting any more million dollar PGA events for a while, but you can still cash in on some “smaller” contests that pay $100,000 to the winner.

Here’s what we’re checking out this week:

• PGA $400K FAIRWAY CHAMPIONSHIP [$100K TO 1ST!]: It’s the end of the season (before the new one kicks off in a few weeks) so why not throw $27 dollars at this smaller pool to try and win $100k?

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Since we had so much success last week selecting the best players in their respected salary ranges and picking our favorite in each group, we’re going to give you the same analysis methodology this week.

TPC Boston is a much different course than last week’s track in New Jersey and just because a player missed the cut at The Barclays doesn’t mean they will play poorly up in New England.  We have researched this one from every angle and we have some solid ideas of who is the best of the best within their salary grouping.

If you are playing salary cap leagues this week you have to choose between Rory, Jason, and Jordan.  You can’t have more than one of these $11k+ players or you’ll be forced to fill your roster with duds and you won’t be successful unless you catch some real lightning in a bottle.  That said, we’ll put together a strong strategy for you this week along with some sample rosters to help you navigate this tough field of the world’s best players.

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

Horse Pick:  Jason Day — Rory McIlroy — Jordan Spieth?

This was the hardest pick we’ve had had to make all season long.  Last week we benched Spieth and picked Day and it worked out.  This week we need to first play process of elimination by narrowing this pick down to two players.  Simply because of potential “rust,” we’re going to leave Rory on the bench until next week after seeing how he performs at TPC Boston.  Day was a monster this season, especially last week on a tough course.  Spieth looked shaky but every great player goes through a bad week.

Keep in mind that Spieth missed the cut at THE PLAYERS and in his next six starts he had two wins, a T2, a T4, and a T30.  We highlight this because bounce-back weeks happen all the time on the PGA TOUR.  If anything, we think Jason may run out of steam having won three out of the last four events on TOUR and even though players can win back-to-back, we feel Jordan has more to prove after missing the cut and losing his precious World No. 1 ranking.  Like last week, this was another coin flip but our gut says go with Spieth.

Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG: 90.48 GPFP: 104.05 Salary:$11,300): After last week’s performance Spieth is certainly no longer the hottest player in the field this week but he’s still arguably one of the best.  TPC Boston fits his game more as it will play much softer and will yield much lower scores.  Jordan has been able to chew courses like this up all season.  As far as his history goes, Spieth carded a 62 during a round here in 2013 to finish T4 in his debut at TPC Boston.  His putter will be his best friend or worst enemy this week but we feel like we are in for a show by the young Masters champ.

• GIR Rank: 55th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 3rd
• Putting Average: 1st
• Scrambling: 5th

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 1st

Mid-Tier 1:   Justin Rose – Dustin Johnson – Henrik Stenson?

While Rose and DJ stay hot, Stenson just lit a match that probably won’t cool off.  This former FedExCup champ knows how to trend at the right time and we’re certainly riding the Henrik train right into Boston this week.

Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 83.60 GPFP: N/A Salary:$10,500):  Guess whose back and hotter than 2013?  That’s right boys and girls, 2013 FedExCup champ Henrik Stenson proved to the world last week that the regular season doesn’t seem to matter much as long as you show up the playoffs.  Some are arguing that it’s a fluke like Hunter Mahan’s win at last year’s Barclays but we totally disagree.  The confidence for this guy is booming as he moved up 37 spots to No. 4 on the FedExCup points list after his second place finish at the Barclays.  Now Stenson has three top six finishes in last five starts and he’s shown the ability to completely obliterate TPC Boston with his tournament-record-tying 22-under.  Put a guy on this scoreable course that ranks first in Ball Striking and GIR and see what happens…just saying.

• GIR Rank: 1st
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 2nd
• Putting Average: 179th 
• Scrambling: 44th (1st from the Rough)

* Most Notable Stat: Ball Striking: 1st

Mid-Tier 2:  Bubba Watson – Zach Johnson – Jim Furyk?

Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG: 85.30 GPFP: 105.77 Salary:$9,800): Bubba used the long stick heavily to his advantage as he rocketed his tee shots a mile off the tee at Plainfield last week, which helped make his rough game a bit shorter and easier.  It’s shocking not to see his salary in the mid $10K range this week and at only $9,800 Watson seems like a nice discount to us.  Last week he led the field  in strokes gained tee-to-green and ranked third in scrambling.  With four Top 3 finishes in his last seven starts, Bubba is in playoff mode for sure, and looks like a freight train coming right through the station at full speed.  TPC Boston suits his long game well and we could see him jump out to an early lead.

• GIR Rank: 23rd
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 1st
• Putting Average: 48th 
• Scrambling: 32nd 

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 1st

Low-Tier 1: Brook Koepka – Rickie Fowler – Hideki Matsuyama?

If Rickie Fowler was a stock we’d say he’s in a correction and with the downward movement we’re advising you sell.  Matsuyama has been quiet for a while before breaking through and notching a T13 last week, so why are we picking a guy who missed the cut last week?  Let’s talk about Brooks in a little more in detail to see why he fits TPC Boston a little bit better than Hideki.

Brooks Koepka (Golficity Odds 22/1 FPPG: 79.34 GPFP: 76.96 Salary:$8,700): Ok so once again, like Spieth, every good player misses a cut every once and a while.  Thursday and Friday were very difficult at Plainfield and it took perfection to tackle those false fronted greens and heavy rough.  We can’t fault Brooks on that but we are excited to pick him at a bargain $8,700 for a redemption week.  He’s not one for consecutive missed cuts and this is the type of course that can bounce him back big time.  His ability to get the ball long off the tee and hot putting game makes for the perfect combination at TPC Boston this week.

• GIR Rank: 11th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 22nd
• Putting Average: 55th 
• Scrambling: 142nd

* Most Notable Stat: Scoring Average: 4th

Low-Tier 2: Robert Streb or Paul Casey?

Robert Streb (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 69.61 GPFP: 75.88 Salary:$8,000): Streb is still campaigning for a President’s Cup spot and a career year.  He may not be the premier player in this price range but he is certainly one of the most consistent. His weekend fade at Plainfield yielded a disappointing T39 but he had top 20s in all of his previous five starts.  Streb also ranked fifth in birdies or better during a T9 finish in his debut here at TPC Boston last year.

• GIR Rank: 16th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 26th
• Putting Average: 53rd 
• Scrambling: 68th (9th from the Rough)

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained Total: 10th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

Justin Thomas or Ryan Palmer?

Tough call here as both guys are striding at just the right time.  Thomas seems to have his game in gear and Palmer who’s been quiet all season came into The Barclays with a heavy heart having lost his father a week earlier and still played tremendously.  Some of you will also remember that Palmer got hot this time last year and made a push for the cup, eventually finishing 14th overall.  JT on the other hand is a rookie and new to the playoff scene.  Both guys are long ball hitters and lack real accuracy off the tee, but we like JT this week as he is a far better ball striker.

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 70.18 GPFP: 90.53  Salary: $7,900): Could the rookie make some real big noise this year?  We had a fun time joking around with JT on the practice green last week and observed how surprisingly calm he was for the big stage.  That said, he truly seems ready to push up the ranks this off season and that excites us.  Thomas went on to finish T16 at Plainfield which marked his fourth top 20 in five starts.  With three Par 5’s on the card this week and a solid ranking of seventh in the all-around, the rookie’s got the ability to chew up this course with his excellent short game skills.

• GIR Rank: 31st
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:18th
• Putting Average: 11th
• Scrambling: 68th (9th from the Rough)

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around: 7th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

Tony Finau or Danny Lee?

It’s simple: Lee looks to be cooling off while Finau is sizzling!  For this price tag you’d be foolish not to put him on your team this week!

Tony Finau (Golficity Odds: 55/1 FPPG: 64.98 GPFP: 83.18  Salary:$7,700): With five Top 10s coming off the Web.com this season, Tony Finau has quickly made a name for himself on the PGA TOUR.  Already banking more than $2 million this season, Finau has proven to be a solid force in any fantasy lineup as of late.  In his last twelve starts he missed just one cut and finished outside the Top 25 only once.  This could very well be his breakout week.

• GIR Rank: 47th
• Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green: 29th
• Putting Average: 55th
• Scrambling: 158th 

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 8th (Clubhead Speed 1st).

Roster Suggestion with Spieth

Roster Suggestion without Spieth

[/membership]

Last Week’s Fantasy Results for The Barclays

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 3/2): WINNER ($1,485,000)
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 8/1): T16 ($127,875)
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 12/1): 3rd ($561,000)
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 25/1): T11 (198,000)
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 32/1):T39 ($33,000)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick to Win The Barclays

• Robert Streb (Golficity Odds 40/1): T39 ($33,000)

Last Week’s Salary Cap Sleeper Pick to Win The Barclays

• Danny Lee (Golficity Odds: 50/1): T30 ($46,933)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.55%” bar_text=”37 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”25.27%” bar_text=”69 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”13 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”35.89%” bar_text=”14 out of 39 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”81.31%” bar_text=”222 out of 273 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”4 out of 4 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Deutsche Bank Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via Flickr