Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Humana Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2015 Humana Challenge (Jan 22-25)

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week the PGA TOUR leaves the beautiful Hawaiian Islands on its way to California for the yearly West Coast swing—with a pit stop in Arizona for the Super Bowl Sunday/Waste Management Open the next week.

Recent Hyundai TOC Champ and returning Humana Challenge winner, Patrick Reed, will be joined by three other 2014-15 wrap around season winners—Ryan Moore (CIMB Classic), Nick Taylor (Sanderson Farms Championship), and Charley Hoffman (OHL Classic).  With the hot handed Jimmy Walker taking a week off, all eyes will be on another U.S. Ryder Cup player, Phil Mickelson.

Lefty will make his season debut after failing to win an event in 2014, which marked his first winless season in eleven years.  This will also be the final week for players to earn some much needed FedExCup points before more big guns like Woods, Fowler, and others show up on the roster for the Waste Management Open next week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Most fantasy players opted to bench Walker last week after his disappointing blow-up at Kapalua the week before, but we weren’t so quick to jump on that bandwagon. We selected Walker as our “horse of the week” and that’s exactly what he was.

It’s difficult to pick a player as your top pick in a salary cap league the week after he blows a three stroke lead with five holes to play, but we’re sure Walker had a nice pep talk with Butch in between events and our premium members couldn’t be happier with the win.

Not only did he win the event, Walker bounced back from losing the Hyundai TOC to Patrick Reed in style with a 9-shot Sony Open victory.

Overall, last week’s fantasy selections resulted in one winner and three other Top 17 finishes—no small feat in a 140-player field.  In total our team grossed a weekly fantasy earnings of $1,229,860 with only our super sleeper, Brian Stuard, missing the cut by 2 strokes.

The Field

All eyes will be on the defending champion Patrick Reed who comes into his title defense with a load of confidence after winning the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  Reed will be in the spotlight with names like Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel, and Matt Kuchar—who just snapped a “255 straight rounds with a birdie” streak last Sunday.

Other players to watch this week include Charlie Hoffman, Zach Johnson, and Kevin Na.  But are these names going to fair well on the Palmer Private course this week?  We’ll break it down further and tell you the players to put on your fantasy roster and DraftKings leagues this week in our fantasy predictions segment below.

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The Course

Palmer Private at PGA West is one of the six legendary PGA West signature courses.  Measuring in at 6,950 yards the Santa Rosa Mountain-lined course will play to a par 72 this week.

Palmer Private has been the Humana Challenge’s (previously the Bob Hope Classic) host track on and of for many years and was the site of David Duvall’s 1999 win, where he set a course record firing a 59 in the final round.

This week’s track presents less of challenge then most courses on TOUR as it tends to hand out birdies and eagles fairly handily. It has been that way since the course first opened its doors in 1986, as the second of now six courses at PGA West. Players will play on 3 different courses this week and all come together on one for the final group on Sunday.  The Humana has 54-hole cut line, unlike the traditional 36 holes,  but a new rule takes effect this year.  The PGA TOUR says that if more than 78 golfers make the cut, all will earn FedExCup points and official earnings, but only the low 60 and ties will compete in the final round on Palmer Private course.

Last year Patrick Reed dominated this course after carding 63’s in his first three rounds, which ultimately gave him enough breathing room to afford a 71 on Sunday and still pull of the win.

The featured hole this week will be No. 10, which often plays as the deciding playoff hole.  The hole is protected by water on the right, and 452 yards to the challenging green that lies ahead.

Photo by PGAWest.com

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA (from weather.com)

The good news for players this week is they can expect nothing by sunshine, temperatures in the upper 70s, and not a drop of rain in the forecast.

A dry track like PGA WEST leads us to think a little differently when making our picks where we’ll look to sniff out the players who not only have had success on this course, but more importantly, the ones who tend to play better in these conditions.

Overall, expect nothing less of beautiful skies at the Humana Challenge this week.

2014 Results

Last Year Patrick Reed cut it close in round 4 but ultimately hung on to notch his second career victory after carding three 63s in a row in the first three rounds.  That gave the young gun some significant breathing room to afford a closing 71 on Sunday—which left him with just a 2-shot victory over Ryan Palmer and three strokes over a Zach Johnson.

Reed’s 27-under par total through 54 holes was a PGA TOUR record that left him with a commanding seven-shot lead entering the final day, but his shaky putter hurt him on Sunday—and still scares us a bit going into this week.

Meanwhile, Palmer moved up the board quickly after firing a closing 63, which included a 15-foot eagle on No. 18.  2013 Champ Zach Johnson also carded an impressive 62 on the final day which put him in a 2-way tie for 3rd with Justin Leonard.

Here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Humana Challenge:

Patrick Reed claims victory at Humana Challenge

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

It will be a tough test for fantasy players this week with a robust 156 player field to choose from.  The good news is that all three courses in the rotation rank among the easiest par 72s on the schedule.  With that said, if the elite players are on their game this week, you can expect them to dominate these courses without a problem.

We’ll be looking for the “tee-to-green” leaders, as well as the players who can get off the tee without much of a problem.

Putting stats will weigh heavily on our picks this week as most players will undoubtedly have some impressive GIR percentages here at PGA WEST.  Remember, last year’s winner Patrick Reed led the field in in 2014 in par breakers (two eagles, 30 birdies), and in the all-around category.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Matt Kuchar: (Golficity Odds 8/1): While most are jumping all over Reed as the top pick this week, we’re still running scared of his putting.  Reed will however make it in our picks simply because he’s one of the best and hottest players in the field.  But let’s talk about Kuch:  Kuchar is one of the few guys who comes into the Humana having played both Hawaii events and he’s progressively improved—despite his birdie streak of 255 consecutive rounds being snapped on Sunday at Waialae.  Although he fell apart during Round 4 last week, we still love how he’s striking the ball.  Kuch comes into the week with finishes no worse than T25 in his last five appearances here, including a T2 finish here in 2010.  His last week T3 finish at the Sony Open is his fifth consecutive top 25 on the PGA TOUR.  With a 71.53% GIR percentage, we feel he’s our horse to tear up all of these courses this week.  As an added bonus, Kuch costs about $2,200 less than Reed in DraftKings leagues this week with a value of $13,800.
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 12/1): If you can somehow finagle your salary cap league so that you can get both Reed and Kuch on the roster, the move is a must.  Odds are you’ll be filling the rest of the roster with B and C level players to do so, but if you scoop up some solid sleepers, you may just catch lightning in a bottle and score big this week.  Reed is flowing with confidence, and remember that Jimmy Walker lost at Kapalua and defended his title next time out, so Reed can certainly do the same.  Simply put, Reed comes has a chance to defend his title on a course he can tear up, and he sits pretty in 2nd place in “Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green” statistics.  What most places don’t tell you is that he also ranks 6th in driving distance among his fellow TOUR players, and with both those stats, you can expect some great things from Reed this week.  DraftKings value this week isn’t cheap ($16,000) so remember to craft your team wisely.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1): Odds are you won’t be able to get Palmer, Reed, and Kuchar since all three are the highest priced players in salary cap leagues this week.  Sitting at $11,800, you may however be able to tie him in with Kuchar as two team leaders take your roster into battle this week.  Ranking 3rd in Driving Distance and 5th in Strokes Gained Putting, Palmer’s nice little draw shots could be ideal for these PGA WEST courses.  He comes into the Humana with a T17 at the Sony Open and twelve consecutive cuts made worldwide, which include his last seven starts resulting in top 25 finishes.  Palmer finished 2nd here last year which marks his is third top-six finish at Humana since 2011.
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity 24/1): Who did you expect in this spot, Keegan or Zach?  Most people do, but not us.  ZJ putting has gotten himself into a funk since Kapalua and Keegan is priced too high this week as a hit-or-miss pick, which he usually is.  Instead, we’re going with Hoffman who currently sits in 17th on TOUR in GIR percentage and has a recent win back in the fall.  He also finished T14 at Kapalua and won a 90-hole Humana in 2007, in addition to having four top 10s in his last two visits here.  Sitting comfortably in 8th place on the FedExCup points list, Hoffman is a solid salary cap pick with a reasonable price tag of just $9,100.
• Brendon Todd (Golficity Odds 24/1): You have to ignore the T44 finish at the Sony and focus on what this kid is capable of.  Todd finished under par in all four rounds at the Sony but his finish was disappointing.  He also knows the course and the tournament format well, sharing a sixth place finish here last year.  Todd is very accurate off of the tee and he certainly has a few wins waiting for him this season.  Grab him at $9,100 if you don’t go with Hoffman.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1): Here is a name you normally don’t see on our pick’em page, but we’ve been watching this kid from way back to his Web.com days.  He sits at just $7,900 in salary cap leagues and could make a solid edition to your roster.  Thomas fired an impressive second-round 61 at Waialae, which catapulted him to a T6 even though he carded even-par 70s during rounds 3 and 4.  For these reasons we’re going to give him a shot this week as our sleeper pick with the next guy on our list.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Shawn Stefani (Golficity Odds 50/1): We think Stefani is undervalued at $7,300 in salary cap leagues and we love that valuation for this week’s rosters.  There was a temptation to put Harris English in this spot but his value was too overpriced for a Super Sleeper.  Stefani followed up a solo second at Mayakoba in the fall with a T6 at Waialae last week and has three straight top 25s.  This boy can drive the ball and has the ability to put up some solid scores…after all, he’s not in 11th place on the FedExCup points list for no reason.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Sony Open

• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 8/1): WINNER ($1,008,000)
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 12/1): T17 ($68,444)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1): T17 ($68,444)
• Russell Henley (Golficity Odds 25/1): T17 ($68,444)
• Brendon Todd (Golficity Odds 35/1): T44 ($16,528)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Sony Open

• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 40/1): MDF

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Sony Open

• Brian Stuard (Golficity Odds 60/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 8
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $7,102,843 ($887,855 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 15 out of 56 picks (26.79).
• Total Top 3s: 8 out of 56 picks (14.29%).
• Total Winners Picked: 1 out of 8 events (12.50%)
• Total Missed Cuts: 5 out of 56 players picked (91.07% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Humana Challenge with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)