Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale

This Week’s Tournament Preview

All eyes will be on Arizona this weekend as the media frenzy descends upon the desert for Super Bowl 49 in Phoenix and the return of Tiger Woods to the PGA TOUR in Scottsdale.  Woods planned his return to the tour at this epic, crowd-packed event, and will embark on a new season with a surgically repaired back.

It’s been 13 years since Woods played in this event, where he finished T5 in 2001.  Most will remember that tournament as the time when Tiger asked some fans to help him move a large boulder on the 13th hole which was considered a loose impediment.  In case you missed this, it was quite a scene:

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Phil Mickelson will also be back in action as the second fan favorite this week coming off a decent showing at the Humana Challenge.  Lefty comes into Scottsdale having won the WM Phoenix Open three times and could tie some big names if he manages to notch a fourth (Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler and Mark Calcavecchia).

Keep in mind that this event is unlike any event on TOUR.  The tournament usually draws hundreds of thousands of spectators and this year turnout should be even more impressive with the Super Bowl also in town.

The classic par 3 16th hole has an enclosed stadium feel that creates an energetic and dramatic setting rarely seen in the sport, with thousands of screaming fans rooting players on as they approach the tee box.  Tiger almost collapsed the stands in 1997 when he aced the 16th.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Overall it wasn’t a bad week despite Bill Haas’ surprise victory.  We ended up with 6 out of 7 of our picks over the 54-hole cut line and even more importantly, our “horse for the course” pick Kuchar (who we told you to pick over the favorite Patrick Reed) finished just one stroke back at T2.

We also mentioned that Charlie Hoffman would make a great edition to your DraftKings and other salary cap leagues last week, suggesting his $9,100 value to be considered over Brendon Todd’s $9,100 value.  This was a wise prediction to say the least, given that Hoffman finished T2 while Todd missed the cut.

In total, we finished the week with four Top 10 finishes, while our two sleeper picks also managed to put up some solid numbers.  One sleeper, Justin Thomas, became the storyline of the week as the 21 year old rookie looked to have a shot at winning the event—if it wasn’t for that troublesome double bogey on his 70th hole.  Thomas ended up just two strokes back from Haas and still managed to finish T7, earning us some serious fantasy points in the process.

Finally, our ‘Super Sleeper’ pick Shawn Stefani charged back to finish T15, contributing nicely to our Kuchar/Hoffman/Thomas/Stefani salary cap lineup that combined for a solid fantasy points payday.

Total weekly earnings across all seven picks for the Humana Challenge was $1,135,820, not a bad showing considering the tournament purse was only $5.7 million and our picks took home 20% of it.  With another week in the books, we’ve now successfully converted a average weekly tournament earnings of $915,407 in the last nine events of the 2014-15 season.  Even better, only six players have missed the cut out of 63 players picked.

The Field

As mentioned, Tiger Woods will return to Scottsdale after a 13 year break from this event.  Phil Mickelson will join Woods and ten other players who sit in the Top 25 in World Rankings.  That list includes Bubba Watson—who loves riling up the fans on the 16th hole—Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler.  Remember that Bubba finished runner-up to Kevin Stadler here last year—who will not be in attendance to defend his title due to a hand injury.

The story will also continue to be Robert Allenby, who will make his first start since he was beaten and robbed in Hawaii after allegedly running up a $3400 strip club bill.

Also be on the lookout for hot 2014-2015 season hitters like Ryan Palmer, Justin Thomas, and Robert Streb, who will all be back in action this week to attempt a desert victory.

The Course

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) measures in at 7,266 yards and plays as a par 71.  Known for being the most attended and loudest venue on the PGA TOUR, this beautiful desert track was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish and will show off the recent $12 million face lift that it received last summer.

The course will offer a handful of new green locations as well as significant changes on the par-5 13th hole, but rest assured, the roudy 16th is still set to contain nearly 20,000 screaming fans.

Be sure to check out our fantasy notes segment below to find out more about how the course will play this week and what other factors we’re considering about TPC Scottsdale when making our selections this week.

Photo via TPC.com

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ (from weather.com)

Surprisingly enough, you can actually expect some wet conditions this week in Arizona.  Round 1 will kick off with the usual dry 80 degree desert heat but a storm is set to move in on Friday with a 60% chance of rain and temperatures dropping into the low 60s.  The rain will continue to threaten into Saturday morning but thankfully we can still expect a beautifully sunny closing round come Sunday.

With the impending rain greens may run a little slower than usual, but the current weather temperatures won’t factor in too heavily into our selections this week.

2014 Results

Kevin Stadler rode his consistent groove to the finish line as Bubba Watson crumbled at the close where he couldn’t save par on the 72nd hole.  After bogeys on 16 and 18 by Watson, the door opened for Stadler where he was able to put the pressure back on Watson coming into the 18th.

Watson flew the green with his second shot on 18 and knocked his chip shot 5 feet past the hole.  Meanwhile, Stadler managed a two-putt from 10 feet for a closing 68 and simply waited patiently for Watson’s putt, that if made could have forced a playoff.  Bubba missed the hole left and victory was in Stadler’s corner for the first time in his career.

Here is a full recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Kevin Stadler captures first PGA TOUR victory at Waste Management

Check out all of the highlights from the final round of the 2014 Waste Management Phoenix Open, where Kevin Stadler shot a final round 68 to claim his first PGA TOUR win. Check out more highlights http://www.youtube.com/pgatour For complete coverage of the WM Phoenix Open .

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, while unpleasant to the weekend amateur, can be a easier test to most of the players on TOUR.  For 2015 the track will ring in 114 yard longer then it played last year, and some of the bunkers have shallowed.

The three total par-5s all average about 560 in yardage which will allow some of the big hitters to get there in two.  We’ll use stats like Par-5 scoring, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy to help us wade through the sea of stellar players this week.

Lastly, a key stat that a lot of people overlook is the ‘all-around’ ranking.  This stat measures how well a player ranks in the categories of Scoring, Putting, Eagle, Birdie, Sand Saves, Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy and is calculated based on the number of events they played.

The question all fantasy players will have on their minds this week is, “do we go with Tiger?”  We’ll help you with that decision in our picks segment below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 10/1): It was a toss up not swapping Kuch and Fowler in the 1-2 spots this week, but we love Rickie’s history here.  As they say in the world of Finance, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but when you hedge your position with a Butch Harmon, you can lean harder on that phrase.  So he missed the cut in 2014…but since that early season appearance, Rickie rocketed to 12 top-10s on the season (Top 5s in all 4 majors), and now sits 11th in the world rankings.  Fowler also knows the track well, as evidenced by his second place finish here in 2010 and his T13 back in 2011.  We’re keeping in mind the fact that he had a tough time in the Abu Dhabi desert (with a triple on the card), but he still managed to make the cut, and we’re sure he’s glad to back in the States.  Don’t let that outing sway you from sticking him on your roster this week.  At $12,000 in DraftKings leagues, he’s a solid addition with guys like Streb and Thomas.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 12/1): Yes, we’re running with Kuchar again this week as our one of our top picks, but he’s been absent from TPC Scottsdale for a few years.  Kuch’s last appearance here was in 2012 (T33) and prior to that 2010 (T43).  But…we have a completely different Kuchar since then, and a new TPC Scottsdale.  Kuchar comes in this week with the perfect game for this TPC redesign.  He has four Top 8s in his last five events with the most recent being a T3 at the Sony and a T2 last week at the Humana.  When you play fantasy golf, you have to pick players who are ‘top 10’ and ‘cut-making’ animals, and Kuch is just that.  He also has an all-round ranking of 7 which in our book is pretty darn good.  It’s worth noting that his inability to slam the door might have some people running scared from picking him this week, but we see that as a opportunity to gain an edge against your fantasy league competition.  The only reason we’re staying away from Bubba in this spot this week is because we think he’s over priced in most leagues and there are way too many guys in the field who can walk away with a win this week.
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 18/1): We’re a bit unsure if he’ll be able to bounce back from his demoralizing double-bogey 70th hole (which essentially cost him his first PGA TOUR victory), but we loved everything we saw from him prior to that, so we’re going to give Thomas another look this week.  The 21-year old rookie is striking the ball a mile, and is probably the most consistent player we’ve seen over the last two weeks.  He’s also quickly proven that he can hang with the big boys despite the one little hiccup on 16 Sunday in La Quinta.  His guts to go for the green from a fairway bunker 140+ out with water everywhere shows the moxie this kid has, and we love watching it.  Given his recent success, Justin’s stock popped up a bit from last week in salary-cap leagues where he now sits at $8,700—still an excellent price for any roster this week.  Thomas now comes in with three Top 10 finishes on the wrap around season with a T7 (Humana), T6 (Sony), a T4 that he notched back in November (Sanderson Farms).  As far as key stats go, he currently ranks 14th in the All-Around and 18th in Driving Distance, and we can certainly see loads of eagle opportunities from him this week.  Did we mention he can hit the ball a mile?
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 25/1): You can put Tiger on your roster this week for $11,400 or you can go with a guy like Steele for $8,800 and probably have better results.  If you didn’t see his impressive T2 last week in La Quinta, Steele was lights out— he just rallied to late.  In his career on TOUR Steele has finished no worse than T6 (2x) in the last three attempts at this this event.  He also ranks 11th in Driving Distance with an average of 306.1 yards off the tee.  With his long drives and impressive birdie making percentage, we can see him in the mix yet again come Sunday.  We haven’t forgotten that his fall series wasn’t all that great, but he’s found something in his bag last week and for the price, we’re going to ride that momentum.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 28/1): With Spieth and Watson carrying hefty price tags this week, we’ve decided to run with Palmer again in this spot.   At just $9,600 (and most likely in a Tier 2 level in pick’em leagues), Palmer comes in with the hot hand, but unfortunately has also shown an inability to slam the door.  Palmer carded a career-low 61 in Round 2 at LaQuinta only finish T10.  He is however a serious fantasy golf machine, with seven top 20s in last eight starts.  TPC Scottsdale definitely suits his game, with his history here comprising of two top fives at this event including a solo fifth in 2013.  Simply put, Palmer is due for a win this year and this could be the week.  Remember that a lot of people will be taking Mickelson ($11,400) here since he’s the all-time money leader at the WMPO, but that’s not enough for us to bet on him.  We’re sticking with Palmer.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

• Robert Streb (Golficity Odds 35/1): We were hoping Streb would have played last week since he’s been so hot lately, and the week off could be a momentum killer.  Relinquishing his FedExCup points lead just two weeks back, Streb now comes into Arizona with four Top 10s including a win in his last 6 events.  Given recent performance we’d be tempted to slate him in our Top 5 this week but it’s Robert’s first time at TPC Scottsdale and that makes us a little leery.  But…he sits in first in the All-Around ranking, second in FedExCup points, and eleventh in Strokes Gained Putting.  At $7,400 in salary cap leagues, you’d be a fool not to consider him this week.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

• Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 50/1): With his DraftKings value higher than Streb, you’d think we’d switch the two around, but we like Streb’s value a lot more this week.  Regardless, if you need a new name to separate yourself from the pack, run with Piercy and his TPC Scottsdale experience.  Despite his T30 last week at La Quinta, Piercy finished in second at the Sony (way behind Walker), and he knows the TPC Scottsdale track well, with a 6-for-6 made cuts record including five top 15s.  Piercy loves making eagles—which we think is going to be the deciding factor this week—and sits 16th in the All-Around.  He’s also currently in 10th on the FedExCup points leaderboard thanks to his solo second in Hawaii and a T7 back in the fall.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Matt Kuchar: (Golficity Odds 8/1): T2 ($342,000)
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 12/1): T24 ($46,170)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1): T10 (136, 800)
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity 24/1): T2 ($342,000)
• Brendon Todd (Golficity Odds 24/1): MC

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1): T7 ($177,650)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

• Shawn Stefani (Golficity Odds 50/1): T15 ($91,200)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 9
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the season: $8,238,663 ($915,407 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 19 out of 63 picks (30.16%)
• Total Top 3s: 10 out of 63 picks (15.87%)
• Runner-Up Finishers: 3 in 9 events (33.33%)
• Total Winners Picked: 1 in 9 events (11.11%)
• Total Missed Cuts: 6 out of 63 players picked (90.48% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)