Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Shell Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Shell Houston Open

This Week’s Tournament Preview

It’s the final tune-up before the PGA TOUR shifts to Augusta National for the season’s first Major event.  By now all 2015 Masters attendees both foreign and domestic are stateside either practicing with coaches and running some rounds at Augusta or finishing up the Texas swing this week.

For some, the Shell Houston Open represents what will be a last ditch effort to make the cut to Augusta—for those who haven’t done so already.  Over the past two years, both winners (Jones ’14 and Points ’13) punched their tickets to Augusta with a win at the Shell Houston.

Be careful in making your selections this week and don’t simply assume that the top priced players will fare well at the Golf Club of Houston.  We purposely picked Spieth over Dustin Johnson last week for that very reason and it paid off big time.  You have a tempting and robust field this week to pick from and if you’re playing salary cap leagues, you might have to get creative this week.  Perhaps if you’re lucky you’ll even find another “Daniel Summerhays,” who happened to score big as one of our premier sleeper selections last week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

With the Masters right around the corner what was statistically the best week in Golficity fantasy predictions history simply couldn’t have come at a better time.  Overall our predictions segment had a phenomenal week with 5 Top-8 finishers including the winner, Jimmy Walker, and runner-up Jordan Spieth.

Perhaps our best bit of advice was to We ignore the highly publicized Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar picks and instead look to build your team around Walker and Spieth.  If you followed that advice you’re undoubtedly sitting pretty in your fantasy league right now.

Other picks from last week’s Valero Texas Open included our sleeper Daniel Summerhays who finished T4, along with Ryan Palmer who came in at T6, and Brendan Steele who finished with an impressive T8.

With the 18th event of the season in the books, we have now successfully picked four winners and have total fantasy earnings of $18.049 million, which amounts to an astounding $1.005 million per week average!  Furthermore, out of 126 picks this season (7 per event), we now have a 30% Top 10 selection success ratio along with 39% runner-ups, and 22.2% winners selected.

Our Tuesday Fantasy Sleepers report also fared very well this week with 4 of the 5 super-sleepers (all off 50/1 or greater odds) making the cut and earning total of just under $500K fantasy dollars.  We felt so confident in Summerhays last week that we included him AGAIN in our sleeper report to reinforce our push for him in the Valero.  With a T4 finish, if your DraftKings roster included our Spieth, Walker, Summerhays, and Steele picks you’re probably sitting on some nice coin right now.  Needless to say, we’re sizzling heading into Augusta and cannot wait for the big event!

Speaking of the Masters, Augusta right around the corner and we couldn’t be more excited to pick our rosters for the big game.  We’re determined to help you win some serious money in this year’s record-breaking DraftKings $2.2 Million Masters Contest.

The Field

As we mentioned in our preview, this week’s field is deep, and there are many horses you can pick from.  Look for the hot hitting FedExCup leader Jimmy Walker (10th ranked in the World), along with Jordan Spieth (4th ranked in the World) and Patrick Reed to be widely favored across most media outlets this week.  These hometown heroes will headline a field that consists of 15 players of the top 30 in OWGR with the top dog being World No.2 Henrik Stenson.

Look for Garcia, Rose, Westwood, and Kuchar to make a little noise this week as well.

Just like last week, we’ll breakdown what players are horses for the course and who is likely to play best on this track in the current conditions.  Picking winners and even Top 10s in this game is difficult, but our job is to make it that much easier for you by providing key stats and other factors that many others overlook.

The Course

Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course) measures in at a whopping 7,441 yards and plays as a par 72.  The track notoriously earns respect due to its replication of Augusta National’s setup.  The course was designed and built over a wooded and flatter terrain in the suburbs of Houston and it has been said that Reese Jones took excellent care to preserve the lakes wetlands surrounding it.

At nearly 7,500 yards GC of Houston is no picnic and the greens will be blazing fast with Stimpmeter readings of 13 or more.  Putting will be one of the key deciding factors this week so we’ll be looking at putting performances closely in our picks segment below.

Photo by GolfClubofHouston.com

Weather Forecast for Humble, Texas

The weather forecast doesn’t look great for Houston this week as forecasters are calling for rain during Wednesday’s practice round which will most likely be a washout.  AM thunderstorms are also predicted for the opening round and showers should play a factor all week. Look for some messy conditions out there with plenty of delays if the long term forecast holds true.

The only day where we may not see rain is Saturday but the temperature is expected to drop from upper 80s to upper 60’s.

2014 Shell Houston Open Results

Last year, Matt Jones won his first PGA TOUR event in super-dramatic fashion by hitting 46-foot birdie to work his way into a playoff with Kuchar.  Jones took the drama one step further by chipping in his approach shot on the first playoff hole to slam the door on Kuchar.

Jones started the final round a whopping six strokes back but carded a 6-under-par 66 to tie Kuchar on the 72nd hole after Kuch put his ball into the water.  The win gave Jones his 2014 Masters ticket and we think Kuchar may be back for revenge this year.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Shell Houston Open:

Matt Jones trumps Matt Kuchar in playoff to win at Shell | Highlights

In the final round of the 2014 Shell Houston Open, Matt Jones wins in dramatic fashion with a birdie hole out in the first playoff hole carding a 6-under 66. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 3:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

Where to Play this Week

Once again DraftKings comes out on top for anyone looking to play a one-week fantasy golf league with cash prizes (for more on where to play see the list of our favorite fantasy golf sites here). Besides getting your early entry in for the $2.2 Million Dollar Masters Event, we suggest another low priced option for the week: The PGA $2.2 Millionaire Maker SUPERS at [50x] is paying out 100 players a free entry into the big Masters event and the cost for entry this week is only $0.25. Our suggestion: why not throw $5 dollars at 20 chances to win a free seat into the big event for an even bigger chance at the $1M score?

If you want to go even cheaper, we suggest the free roll with a shot at winning $1k or you can try the $5 PGA Eagle at VICTIV for a shot at $300 for first place.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

This week we have the classic dilemma of a jam-packed field of all-star caliber players and only a few slots to select from.  Most players will be sitting with high salary prices, but have no fear because we were in the same boat last week and had no problems cashing in with a balanced roster of favorites and some key sleepers.

Besides ‘course horses,’ hometown heroes, and hot streaking players, we’ll be looking at a few performance stats in particular.  GC of Houston is a challenging course and has similar features of what we saw last week in San Antonio.  Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained Putting will most likely be the deciding factors this week and we will use those stats to help push us over the edge on some players we’re torn between.  Do you run with Walker and Spieth again?  Do you trust another round to Dustin Johnson?  We’ll answer these pressing questions below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Shell Houston Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG 96.5 Salary $13,300): We wanted to put Walker in the “horse” spot this week due to his hot hand, but simply couldn’t pass on Henrik this week.  Probably the top pick to win at Augusta right now, this guy ranks second in GIR, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and Putting, plus he currently sits at in the number one spot for Total Strokes Gained.  Those are some hard statistics to argue with.  Additionally Stenson is also one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR (70% off the tee) and he ranks first in Scoring Average.  Stenson is already 5/5 this season and loves putting up fantasy points.  Yes, we know he’s the top priced player this week but in this case we believe he’s worth every penny which is why Stenson is our horse to win over Walker and Spieth this week.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG 90.2 Salary $12,100): Walker is riding some nice momentum after a huge win in San Antonio and we love that he can hang with the TOUR’s biggest long ball hitters (17th in Driving Distance).  Walker comes in ranked third in Strokes Gained Putting and first in birdie average.  Tie that into a fourth rank in Strokes-Gained-Total and 21st in GIR and you have yourself what we call a “fantasy no-brainer” this week.  If you’ve already used Walker up in your pick’em leagues (or want to save him for later in the season) you can pick Reed here, but if you’re playing for the big bucks in a salary cap league you must have Walker on your roster at this price.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG 89.7 Salary $13,200): We gave Reed a look here at the lower price, but just couldn’t pull the tigger.  Not only did Spieth beat out Reed to win the Valspar, but his stats prove him to be the better pick in fantasy right now.  As mentioned earlier, putting is key to winning on this course and right now the better putter of the two is Speith.  He also ranks second in Strokes Gained Total and fifth in Strokes Gained Putting.  Although Reed hits more GIRs, we think it’s better to ride the momentum and stick with Spieth.  The young star is gunning for a major and World No. 1 spot, and if he keeps playing the way he’s been in March we see both as a possibility.
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG 76.2 Salary $8,300): Despite costing less than Kokrak, we think you should still pick Steele over him.  Steele finds himself on top of leaderboards quite often but has regularly failed to close the door, but his T8 last week made us give him another look.  Steele hits the ball a mile (ranking 13th in Driving Distance) and sits in 10th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  He’s also 7th in the all-around ranking and is knocking on the door of a PGA TOUR victory.
• Jason Kokrak (Golficity Odds 33/1 FPPG 66.3 Salary $8,800): Kokrak has emerged as a real force lately and has no worse than a T11 finish in his last three starts.  He’s knocking on the door of a Top-5 finish and his game looks to be in great shape heading into the Masters.  $8,800 is a reasonable price given his excellent chances this week and he’s a new name to add to your pick’em league for sure.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Jaime Donaldson (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG 58.4 Salary $7,700): We almost went with Charlie Hoffman here but there was something about his 155th rank in Strokes Gained Putting that made us opt for a similar priced player with a better short stick.  Donaldson ranks 10th in that category and comes into Texas on the heels of a missed cut at the Valspar but an impressive 6th place finish just two weeks before that (Honda) in weather conditions similar to what’s forecasted this week.  Donaldson is a pure gamble this week for sure and we’re hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with this sleeper pick this week.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Shell Houston Open

• Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG 64.0 Salary $7,500): Berger is a name often overlooked in fantasy, but the truth of the matter is that he’s already made nine cuts with seven Top 25 finishes and three top 10 finishes in 14 events played this season.  He also finished P2 at the Honda Classic but is coming off of a missed cut at the Valero.  Another sleeper pick for sure, but we think he has the ability to make some noise on this course.  His putting worries us a bit but his nearly 70% of GIR success rate could keep him in contention, plus something tells us Masters invitations motivate rookies to bring their A game.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 8/1): 2nd ($669,600)
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 12/1): WINNER ($1,116,000)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 22/1): T6 ($215,450)
• Martin Laird (Golficity Odds 28/1): T50 ($14,839)
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 35/1): T8 ($179,800)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Daniel Summerhays (Golficity Odds 50/1): T4 ($272,800)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Russell Knox (Golficity Odds 75/1): MC ($0)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 18 (126 picks – 7 per event).
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $18,094,748 ($1,005,263 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 37 out of 126 picks (29.37%).
• Total Top 3s: 18 out of 126 picks (14.29%).
• Runner-Up Finishes: 7 in 18 events (38.89%).
• Total Winners Picked: 4 in 18 events (22.22%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 19 out of 126 players picked (84.92% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for 2015 Shell Houston Open with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo by Ron Kikuchi on Flickr