Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2015 Valero Texas Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2015 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio

Event Preview

Just two events remain until the Masters and both will be played in the Lone Star State, starting with one of the mainstays on tour, this week’s Valero Texas Open.

Players will converge on TPC San Antonio, a par-72, 7,433-yard course, which has been the host for this event since 2010 and has seen five different winners with three of the past four having finished with a score of eight-under par.

Last season, Aussie Steven Bowditch looked past the fact that he missed the cut in three of the four Florida tournaments and rattled off a 69-67-68 over the first three days; building a large enough lead to hold up his poor 76 on a blustery Sunday afternoon.  He was just the second Australian-born golfer with a victory at this event since the move to San Antonio as Adam Scott also took home the trophy for the Aussies back in 2010.

World No. 6 golfer Jordan Speith will attempt to win in consecutive outings after grabbing the Valspar Championhship few weeks ago.  Speith will be playing in his home state of Texas and would become the first multiple winner of the 2014-15 season if he is able to secure his third career victory here at TPC San Antonio.

It will not be an easy task though, as Jordan is joined by fellow top-10 golfers, Jim Furyk and Dustin Johnson, as well as another eight players from the top-25.  Among that group is Jimmy Walker who will be looking to hold on to the FedExCup lead with a strong showing.  Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Sangmoon Bae are the other three golfers playing this week who are in the top-10 of the FedEx Cup standings.

This event is one that anybody can win as evidenced by the fact that each of the last four winners are currently ranked 99th or worse in the World rankings, so let’s look at a few picks who could win despite some challenging odds.

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

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The Fantasy Sleeper Report

In an effort to continually provide our Premium Members with the best fantasy content anywhere on the web, this week we’ve added a bonus “Sleeper Report” to help you identify the undervalued, long-shots that can help you score some bonus fantasy points this weekend.  Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

• Charley Hoffman – 50/1: Hoffman has absolutely dominated this course since it first started hosting this event, earning a top-13 finish in each of the last five years.  In that time he has a second-place (2011), and third-place (2013) showing, and is a combined 31-under-par in those outings.  Last year he continued to play well here with three rounds of 70 sandwiched around a poor 75 on Friday, leading to an 11th-place finish as he hit 62.5% of GIR and was an impressive two-under on par-4’s over the week.  His season this year has been quite volatile with four missed cuts in eleven events, but he has a win and a runner-up showing to his name and is heading into what is obviously one of his favorite tracks.  His combination of power (297.2 yards per drive, 32nd on tour) and accuracy (69.14% GIR, 45th on tour) should allow him to once against tear up San Antonio and put a fourth career PGA victory in sight.
• Daniel Summerhays – 55/1: Summerhays (who was also our headliner sleeper pick in our main picks segment this week) is another player who has had plenty of fun at this course and has improved in each of the last three seasons, finishing 29th in 2012, seventh in 2013, and finally had his best showing last year when he was the runner-up.  He was incredible all-around in the runner-up performance, hitting 68.06% of GIR and nailing 67.86% of fairways.  Summerhays will be coming off a 55th-place finish at Bay Hill, his worst showing since the Waste Management Open, but has made 11-of-13 cuts on the year and should be able to ride some solid putting (0.578 strokes gained putting, 22nd on tour) to another impressive performance at the Texas Open.
• Freddie Jacobson – 75/1: Jacobson has been having a season to forget thus far as he has missed two cuts and has done no better than 32nd in his last four outings.  Things should begin to start looking up this week though, as his ability to both drive the ball with accuracy (63.19%, 66th on tour) and putt with extreme efficiency (0.841 strokes gained putting, 5th on tour) play well on this course, leading him to past success here.  He has done no worse than 18th since the Texas Open moved to San Antonio and last year he was once against solid, finshing with a tie for 16th.  Jacobson should be able to get back on track this week and put up some nice numbers from the start.
• Marc Warren – 100/1: Warren doesn’t play much in the States, making his way over most commonly for just the WGC events and majors that he’s invited to.  Still, he’s been able to make a mark on the game with a 17th at the latest WGC tournament and has made the cut in each of the last three majors which he particpated in.  Warren has three European titles under his belt up to this point and had four straight top-25 performances in the previous four European Tour starts before the WGC Cadillac Championship.  There are not a ton of people that have seen Warren play (at least in the U.S.), but there is certainly a reason why he is ranked just outside of the top-50 players in the world (51st), and it would be little to no surprise if the Scottish golfer won on American soil sometime soon.
• Geoff Ogilvy – 175/1: Ogilvy was once a stud in the game with eight career PGA victories to his name, but he has really fallen off lately and has not won in stroke play since the 2010 SBS Championship.  However, he played well here at TPC San Antonio in each of his two appearances, finishing in the top-25 each time including an 11th place finish last year behind 68.06% of GIR hit.  He started this season out with some solid golf, making four of the first five cuts and carding a number in the 60s in half of his first 10 rounds.  Ogilvy would be the third Aussie to win here in six years if he was able to pull it off, and while it is unlikely, the veteran still has enough talent in him to make that important Sunday push a few more times.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for this week’s Valero Texas Open Here.

Cover photo by @jwsanantonio on iconosquare