Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – 2016 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 BMW Championship

2016 BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

Two down, two to go.  The FedExCup Playoffs are moving to Illinois this week and only 70 remaining players will make the trip.

Players like Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger and Fabian Gomez all sit around the bubble mark of 30 and will try their best to make it to East Lake for the finale in two weeks.  On the other side of the coin, this year’s top names like Patrick Reed, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson all hope to lock up a top-five spot heading in East Lake, which means that if they win there, they win the cup.

 
Last season four players who sat outside the Top 30 heading into the BMW were able to get in to the finale and that can easily happen again this week.  Crooked Stick also represents the last opportunity to shine for any Ryder Cup hopefuls teetering on the edge of Davis Love’s qualification scale.  Captain Love will pick three wild card picks after this week’ event and one final player after the finale at East Lake.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Despite losing Mickelson and Hoffman to the cut, our other three Top fantasy picks last week we’re Jason Day (T15, 88 Fantasy Points), Patrick Reed (T5, 88.5 Fantasy Points ), and Ryan Moore (T8, 85.5 Fantasy Points).   If you utilized our Tuesday Sleeper Report, you may have mixed in our pick Paul Casey who went off at $7,900 and ended up finishing in 2nd with 112 fantasy points.

In case you missed it, here’s what our team thought about Casey and Moore last week:

Ryan Moore – Vegas Odds 55/1 – Moore has always been one of the better golfers on TOUR from year-to-year, placing in the top-50 of the FedExCup standings six times since 2007. He will be looking to improve on his best finish of 11^th in 2012 as he currently sits in that same spot heading into this week following a 2016 in which he won his fifth career PGA TOUR event at the John Deere Classic and added another six top-10s over a mere 20 events. Moore played great last week at the Barclays, posting a score of six-under and coming in a tie for seventh after hitting 71.43% of fairways and gaining 0.545 strokes putting on the field. Those skills have been prevalent all season long as he ranks 12^th in driving accuracy (67.95%) and 34^th in strokes-gained putting (0.373). Moore was able to get consecutive tenth-place finishes here in 2011 and 2012, and while he has really struggled to get much done since, he is in great form and should push for the win.

Paul Casey – Vegas Odds 80/1 – Casey has been a little bit of a risk lately, making the cut in just six of his last 10 events, but getting into the top-17 at three of his last five. He is not having as great of a year as he did in 2015 when he finished 13^th in the FedExCup final standings, but he has been able to make 14-of-19 cuts (74%) and has done a great job against the toughest of fields at the Cadillac Championship (7^th), Masters (4^th), and most recently at the PGA Championship (10^th). His ticket to another big week here will be converting his birdie chances since he is ranked eighth on TOUR in GIR (69.89%) while being only slightly above average in putting (0.048 strokes-gained putting, 86^thon TOUR). Casey seems to get better with each round played at a course and ranks ninth in final round scoring (69.46) which should help him improve on the 25^th he earned here back in 2010.

2016 BMW Championship Field

The field will contain just 69 players this week and will be headlined by World No. 1 Jason Day who also comes into this week as the defending champion at this event.   Day has been playing well as of late—although not nearly as dominant as he was this time last year—and his fantasy points have been healthy over the last few weeks.  He’ll be joined by Barclays champion Patrick Reed who followed up his victory in Round 1 of the playoffs with a T5 in Round 2.

 
Another name to keep an eye on this week is Henrik Stenson who has been battling knee problems in recent weeks.  The Swede is the only player so far not signed up to play this week, but odds are he’ll be there in full force.  Stenson won the FedExCup in 2013 and almost took another one home last season before falling short to Spieth.

Only thirty players will advance to the finale in two weeks and as for the rookies on Tour,  Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman are still alive and hopeful for a chance to make it to East Lake.

This Week’s Course Preview

Crooked Stick Golf Club measures in at a long 7,516 yards and will play as a par 72.  Pete Dye took a cornfield outside Indianapolis and created a top notch golf course that has seen plenty of professional action.

The track is testy and forces players to shot shape both ways quite often as no two consecutive holes face in the same direction.  This course hosted the 1982 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 1991 PGA Championship, 2003 U.S. Women’s Open, 2005 Solheim Cup, and its first BMW Championship four years ago.

As we look back on that event, Rory McIlroy triumphed here in 2012 going super low at -20 to close out his victory.  Power off the tee is essential here and his ability to shorten holes helped him convert two eagles and 23 birdies that week.  He dominated the field despite putting poorly that week which tells us that guys may be able to get away with less than perfect putting this week.

 
It’s hard to compare 2012 to this year as the course played relatively easier then.  At the time, the greens averaged only 4,500 square feet which is small, so a lot of one and two putts were had.  About 80% of the Top 10 finishers that week ranked inside the Top 20 in GIR and/or Proximity to the Hole.  Also, six of the top seven on the final leaderboard ranked in the top 15 in long drivers for the week.

Weather Forecast for Carmel, IN

Because rain is threatening the area for most of the week, distance and control are more important than ever this week.  At a 7,500 yard measurement you have to assume the dampness throughout the week will make this long track feel even longer.

You’re best day for weather this week is Sunday which looks to be dry and in the high 70s.

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

Fans may remember that this was the event that catapulted Jason Day to No. 1 in the World after the Aussie completed a six stroke victory after carding 61-63 on the first two days.  Not only did that tie the PGA TOUR’s 36-hole scoring record, but get this, Day led by at least four shots after every round!

The win marked Day’s fourth in a six-start stretch, which included the PGA Championship and the 2015 Barclays at Plainfield Country Club.

Daniel Berger and Scott Piercy were among the top of the pack who chased Day down, but both failed to overtake him at the end.  Here’s a look on how things shaped up last year:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hH1wXa3ZOjE[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday, noon-3:30 p.m. (NBC), 3:30-6 p.m. (GC)
  • Sunday, noon-2 p.m. (GC), 2-6 p.m. (NBC).
• Mobile Broadcasts (via PGA TOUR LIVE APP)
  • Thursday-Friday, 11:30 a.m.-3 p.m. (featured groups), 3-7 p.m. (featured holes).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 8:30 a.m.-5:45 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO:
  • Thursday-Friday, 1-7 p.m.
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week

The golf season isn’t over yet!  Here are some of our favorite DFS contests this week:

• PGA $325K BIRDIE [$325,000 GUARANTEED]: This $3 entry game will max out at 127,450 players and will distribute $325,000.00 in total prizes. Top dog here wins $15,000 and the top 36,445 finishers will get paid.
• PGA $325K BIRDIE [$450,000 GUARANTEED]: This $33 entry game is a bit more expensive but will feature a limited field of fantasy players that will max out at 15,764.  Top dog here wins $50,000 and the top 4,115 finishers will get paid.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship

As we mentioned in our Course Preview, we know that Crooked Stick will reward the long ball hitters as this track has done handsomely in the past.  Although the course will stretch over 7,500 yards, the wet weather in the forecast should make this course a lot longer and slower.

This week our focus will be on solid long ball hitters with great target skills (proximity and GIR).  Putting is not a major concern as we’ve seen winners in the past excel without dominating putting performances.  Remember that the greens here are small; so just finding the green should be enough for one and two putts all week.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6/1): T15 ($131,700, 88 Fantasy Points)
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 20/1) T5 ($310,000, 88.5 Fantasy Points)
• Phil Mickelson (Golficity Odds 32/1): MC ($0, 22 Fantasy Points)
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 50/1): T8 ($212,500, 85.5 Fantasy Points)
• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 75/1): MC ($0, 22 Fantasy Points)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 80/1): T67 ($17,340, 57 Fantasy Points)

Last Week’s Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Deutsche Bank Championship

• Adam Hadwin (Golficity Odds 100/1): T46 ($22,731)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the BMW Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via Instagram