Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – 2016 CIMB Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 CIMB Classic

2016 CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview

The “wrap around” season means more DFS fantasy action in 2016 and after last week’s curtain raiser at the Safeway Open, the PGA TOUR now packs its bags and sets sail for the Far East; Malaysia to be precise for the 2016 CIMB Classic.

This event became a fully-fledged PGA tournament back in 2013, and is co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour – hence the healthy dose of Asian pros in the field here.  The CIMB Classic remains the only PGA TOUR event to be hosted in the Far East, and this year’s renewal will take place at the sumptuous Kuala Lumpar Golf & Country Club.

The Safeway Open champion, Brendan Steele, is in town attempting to make it back-to-back victories, although he faces stiff competition from the 78-man field which features ten players in the world’s top 30. Reigning champion Justin Thomas will defend, while the likes of Patrick Reed and Ryan Moore will make their seasonal bow following Team USA’s Ryder Cup triumph.

While Reed looks like the easy pick, you may consider our ideas before dropping a lot of fantasy cash early and not being able to get additional studs.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

It was a wild week in Napa with torrential downpours throughout the four day tournament causing what seemed like one rain delay right after the next.  Fantasy rosters everywhere we’re shaken up by the weather which unfortunately is out of everyone’s control.

It was the first event out of the gate in the 2016-2017 season and unfortunately we missed three to the cut with sloppy conditions.  Of the four who made it through, we had three T26 or better and a T35 finish.

The 2016 CIMB Classic Field

The standout acts in this week’s drama will be the world number six Adam Scott, unofficial Team USA Ryder Cup leader Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama – fresh off a victory in his native Japanese Open last week, and Paul Casey, who has recorded four consecutive top-five finishes.  Is he closing in on a second PGA TOUR victory, or has his chance now passed?

Just 78 players will make up the CIMB Classic field, a list that includes ten of the world’s top 30 and a selection of the Asian Tour’s finest talents rounding out the mix.  Two-time CIMB champ Ryan Moore will be looking to make it a hat-trick, while European hopes will rest upon Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera-Bello as they return to action following the Ryder Cup.

Multiple-time European Tour winners Branden Grace and Scott Hend add a Southern Hemisphere flavour to proceedings, while rising stars Emiliano Grillo, Si-Woo Kim, Byeong-Hun An, and Tony Finau add further intrigue to an impressive cast list.

This Week’s Course Preview

The drama will unfold on Malaysia’s premier track, the West Course at the Kuala Lumpar Golf & Country Club.  Many will remember that this was the host venue for Justin Thomas’ triumph in 2015, and after playing his 72 holes at -26 let’s just say it is one of the more forgiving stretches on the PGA TOUR!

Designed by the Nelson & Haworth combo who are also responsible for Sheshan International (which plays host to the WGC-HSBC Champions event), this is a relatively short Par 72 at 7,005 yards, and clearly scoring opportunities are available on every hole.  The wider-than-average fairways offer forgiveness for wayward drives, with the slow greens offering plenty of reward for GIR merchants.

Fairways and rough are made up of Seashore Paspalum, as you might expect in this part of the world, with the greens a Seaisle Supreme make-up.  There’s nothing to particularly worry about here, although you might assume this gives the Asian professionals a nice advantage.  With rain predicted in the build-up to Thursday’s tee times and humidity somewhere around 60%, the greens are going to play super-slow and be very receptive from all angles.

Happily, not much rain is forecast for Thursday-Friday, so tee times may not be as important as they typically are in these wet and wild parts, where rain and safety delays can play absolute havoc.

A photo posted by Mitch_Golf (😆 – ミシェル) (@mitch_golf) on Oct 15, 2016 at 6:05am PDT

Weather Forecast for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

This may be the “fall season” but it certainly won’t feel like it this week as temperatures in Malaysia are expected to be in the mid-90’s with muggy humidity.

As accurate as the long-range forecast can be, it looks set to be a rainy couple of days at the start of the week before brightening up in time for Thursday’s start.

Something to consider when selecting your fantasy rosters this week is the fact that it is going to be hot, sweaty and sultry; which is perhaps another advantage to the Asian contingent.

No rain is forecast for the first three days, although downfalls of Biblical proportion are predicted for Sunday.  This could well turn into a 54-hole shootout, so drafting players we can expect to hit the front early could be key.

Last Year’s Results from the CIMB Classic

Justin Thomas wrapped up his maiden PGA TOUR victory in a shootout with Adam Scott, which featured three straight birdies to steal the title by one shot from the Aussie.

Both Scott and Kevin Na had chances to claim the title down the home straight, with the former missing an eagle attempt at 18 that would have ensured a play-off spot, while the latter lipped out on both 16 and 17 to condemn himself to third place finish.

Thomas’ 262 score is, incredibly, not the lowest 72-hole offering at Kuala Lumpar although he did equal the lowest 18-hole score on this track with a sublime 61 on Friday.  That was the difference-maker between glory and otherwise for the young American.

If you thought Thomas, Scott, and Na were miles out in front, think again.  For context, Tony Finau, who finished solo ninth, posted -18, so expect a birdie fest once again this year.

Unsurprisingly, Thomas ranked first for birdies made and also Putts Per GIR, and yet didn’t perform spectacularly well off the tee (53rd for Driving Accuracy) or with his irons either (29th for Greens in Regulation).  Get the ball onto the dancefloor and finish the job in a timely fashion seems to be the order of the day.

We’ve spoken of an Asian bias, but 11 of the first 13 home were American, with a Japanese ace (Matsuyama) and an Aussie (Scott) making up the numbers.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Wednesday-Thursday, 10:30 p.m.-2:30 a.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Friday-Saturday, 11 p.m.-3 a.m. (GC).
• Mobile Broadcasts:
  •  None
• RADIO:
  • None

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the CIMB Classic this Week

As ever it is DraftKings that has come up trumps with their slate of contests this week, and alongside our two chosen tournaments there are stacks of 50/50, Double Up and Head-to-Head battles to wager.

• $115K Dogleg: Finish inside the top 25% of this $33 buy-in contest to win a minimum of $50, with a top-100 place snagging at least $150 and top prize a rather handsome $10,000!
• $100k Birdie: For those on a budget, this $3 buy-in tournament offers ample ways to build your bankroll: finish inside the top 6695 places to double your money, and if you manage to finish top of the 39k field you’ll pocket a lucrative $3,000 payout.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the CIMB Classic

We’ve mentioned already about Thomas’ playbook last year – get the ball onto the green by hook or by crook, and then putt well to get the job done.  With rain forecast in the run-up to the event, thus slowing the greens further, we can expect a similar pattern to unfold this week.

So Greens in Regulation and Putts Per GIR are our main weapons this time around, with an ability to shoot low on easy courses a specific but necessary skill.  Thomas and his predecessor, Ryan Moore, both led the field for birdies made, so let’s get plenty of low shooters on board this week.

Clearly, prior course form is of interest.  Thomas won in his debut, but the likes of Moore, Na, Woodland, and Cabrera-Bello have all posted back-to-back top tens in this tournament.

Even accounting for Thomas’ win, we would expect that some kind of experience playing outside of the US – specifically in these hot and humid conditions – would be a plus, as is current form: Thomas finished third in the Frys.com Open just prior to his CIMB triumph.

We’re looking at quality operators for our fantasy draft this week – more so than usual.  The first five home in 2015 were Thomas, Scott, Na, Steele, and Matsuyama; these are elite-level performers.  Managing the salary cap effectively could be the difference between success and failure this week!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the CIMB Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the CIMB Classic

Top Tier Pick: 

Ryan Moore (Vegas Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 54.16 Salary: $10,600)

A two-time winner of this event in 2014 and 2015, Moore followed up that dual strike with a T10 last year, so really there is plenty to like about this young man’s chances this week.

It’s been a great few months for the 34-year-old.  His victory at the John Deere Classic – the fifth of his career – just reminded anyone who had forgotten about his prodigious talent just what Moore is capable of, and from that point on he went into overdrive: offering top-10s at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank, before losing out in a play-off at the season finale, the Tour Championship.  Top that off with a proud performance in the 2016 Ryder Cup, and this is perhaps the best period of the Washington-bred player’s career.

A noted scorer on Par 4s – he played them at -11 at the Tour Championship, and a decent putter, Moore played his formative golf in Las Vegas, so the heat won’t be any concern to him here.  As a proven winner, we have to fancy him to go close on a course he loves.

Key stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 14th
• Strokes Gained: Total – 18th
• Total Putting – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Kevin Chappell (Vegas Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 62.9, GPFP: 50.36  Salary: $9,100)

Chappell has developed his own niche as one of the most reliable DFS drafts around, and while that might not help him to sleep at night, at least he can look back on 2016 as one of the very best years of his career.

Still searching for his maiden Tour victory, Chappell confirmed himself as one of golf’s “nearly” men with four runners-up finishes last season, including an agonizing play-off defeat at the Tour Championship.

Whether he’s a ‘bottler’ or not, at least the 30-year-old is getting himself into the picture, and he’ll be encouraged heading out to Malaysia that his form line on this course reads 25-13-29; not bad considering he is now playing the best golf of his career.

Key stats:

• Shots Gained: Around-the-Green – 9th
• Going for the Green – 21st
• Putts Per Round – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Russell Knox (Vegas Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 59.10 Salary: $8,200)

Like Alex Noren, Knox would have been pretty aggrieved at not making the European Ryder Cup team after a decent campaign, and if he is made of the same stuff as the Swede then he may just fancy a victory here as a kind of revenge on Darren Clarke and co.

The Scot lifted two trophies this term and finished in second place twice, and notably his first victory of the campaign came at a Nelson & Haworth design at Sheshan.  An eye-catching couple of showings in the FedExCup Playoffs, including back-to-back top 20s at the Deutsche Bank and BMW Championship, suggest the form is still there.

If Knox’s Achilles heel – his putting – comes in good this week he may just exact the ultimate revenge on the Ryder Cup section committee, as Noren did last week at the British Masters.

Key stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 9th
• Scrambling from the Rough – 14th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

Si-Woo Kim (Vegas Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 59.9, GPFP: 47.94 Salary: $7,900)

Kim is not exactly a mid-tier pick at $7,900, but we feel there is scope for daily fantasy managers to take a hit on a young talent that appears to be heading towards the top of the game.

There hasn’t been many better players on the Tour than Si-Woo Kim since the summer, and his victory at the Wyndham Championship – complete with a round of 60 – was a real statement of intent coming as it did less than a month after his play-off heartache at the Barbasol Championship.

Three top-20 finishes in the FedExCup make a mockery of his lowly Vegas odds here, and having been born and raised in South Korea he will be well-suited to conditions in the Far East.

Key stats:

• Shots Gained: Around-the-Green – 9th
• Going for the Green – 21st
• Putts Per Round – 29th

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Marcus Fraser (Vegas Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.3, GPFP: 41.87 Salary: $6,400)

Having pinched an inch with our three mid-tier picks, let’s keep things slightly more at the budget end of the range here with this affordable Aussie.

A European/Asian Tour player by trade, the experienced Fraser is a three-time Tour winner who has lifted silverware in Malaysia already this year at the Maybank Championship, and having finished fifth at the Olympic Games he clearly enjoys playing in such exalted company.

The Aussie will love the heat and humidity, and comes to the CIMB having finished second on the Asian Tour Order of Merit.

Key stats

• Fired -15 in Malaysia earlier this year
• Six-time tour winner
• Finished just outside the medal places at the Olympics

Sleeper Pick for the CIMB Classic

Scott Hend (Vegas Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 65.7, GPFP: 52.58 Salary: $7,800)

We can class the Aussie as a sleeper pick as he is largely unknown to the American golf fraternity, but those across the pond are well aware of Hend’s talents.

A European and former Asian Tour specialist, Hend has returned two top-5s in September alone at the KLM Open and the European Masters, which suggests the form is there for a title assault, while an event win in Thailand plus top-15s in China, Dubai, and Mauritius confirm these conditions play into his hands.

Quietly, Hend quite fancies getting himself a PGA TOUR card, and events like these are an opportunity to put himself in the shop window.  He is erratic, occasionally a loose cannon, and his short game can go awry, but for a proven winner that putts well and booms the ball off the peg, the Aussie is a dream DFS pick this week even if he might not get into the hunt for top honors.

Key stats:

• Three-time tour winner
• Asian Tour Order of Merit winner
• Absolutely steams it off the tee – average Drive Distance is 301 yards!

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the CIMB Classic

Aaron Baddeley (Vegas Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 57.2, GPFP: 65.20 Salary: $7,100)

Another Aussie, Baddeley ended a five-year wait for a fourth PGA TOUR title at the summer’s Barbasol Championship, and four other top-10s last season confirmed a rather poorly-kept secret: he is a force to be reckoned with on putting-centered tracks.

We’ve already surmised that tee work and iron play is largely of irrelevance here; it is the last third of holes that will be all-important.  This is where Baddeley comes alive: he ranks inside the Tour’s top ten for Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Putting, and so if he is fresh, fit, and firing there is no reason why he can’t go close.

Key stats:

• Scrambling – 5th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 8th
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green – 10th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the CIMB Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram