Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Hyundai Tournament of Champions from Kapalua

2016 Hyundai Tournament of Champions Preview

And…we’re back!

Not only are we back, we’re also coming right out of the gate with the biggest names on the PGA TOUR as the likes of Spieth, Day, Fowler, and Watson will all be headlining 2016’s first event.   Spieth, Fowler, and Watson we’re last seen on TV playing the Hero World Challenge back in early December where Watson emerged as the event winner and perhaps jokingly stated that he would retire if he reached the World No.1 spot.  All played pretty well, including Bubba who may be a little underestimated going into Kapalua this week, but more about that in our picks segment below.

In other news, this will be Jason Day’s first start since the TOUR Championship, the birth of his daughter, and the infamous collision with LeBron James which lead to a brief hospitalization for his wife Ellie.  Jason had a career year in 2015 with 5 wins, 11 Top 10s, his first major victory, a President’s Cup team win, and $9.4 million in earnings (without the FedExCup bonus).

Spieth padded his #1 World Ranking points a little bit with starts in China and Australia over the break, and by the looks of his off-season workouts, it doesn’t look as though he’ll be letting up any time soon.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

It seems like forever since the early December Hero World Challenge which saw Bubba Watson steamroll though the field.  Since this was the last event of the seven “wrap-around” contests we covered during the new season (2015 events), let’s bring you up to par on where we stand with this event in the books.

Due to the very small field, we only picked three players plus one sleeper pick.  Among them, Spieth (4th), Fowler (3rd), Matsuyama (T17), and our sleeper pick Jimmy Walker (T8th) combined for a weekly earnings of $657,500 in a very small $3.5 million dollar prize purse event.

Be sure to check out our fall series stats breakdown for all of our winning stats so far this season.

The Field

Expect a young crowd this week as the relatively small 32 player field contains seven players under the age of 27—Spieth (22), Thomas (22), Grillo (23), Kaufman (24), Reed (25), Danny Lee (25) and Brooks Koepka (25).

Reed will try to go back-to-back this year and be the first player to do so at the TOC since Geoff Ogilvy did it in 2009-10.  In total there will be four returning TOC champs including Davis Love III who is try to secure his second title here in over two decades since winning the first one.

World No. 1 Jordan Spieth will play alongside fellow major winners Zach Johnson and Jason Day which will include a lineup of 32 tournament winners from the 2015 calendar year.  Interestingly enough, the OWGR 1-2 punch of Spieth and Day will mark the first time we’ve seen this in 11 years.   In total we’ll see six players in World Top 10, including other names like Rickie Fowler, Kevin Kisner, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, and Patrick Reed.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BAFhtMFQuw5/?taken-by=rickiefowler

The Course

The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays as a challenging 7,452 yard par 73.  This course is one of the first Bill Coore/Ben Crenshaw joint ventures and the Plantation Course first opened in 1991.  Probably one of the nicest courses in the world (in regards to its breathtaking views) but still can bring forth an element of disaster with high winds and terrain.   We’ll discuss this week’s weather forecast in more detail in a moment.

For more be sure to check out Golficity’s very own Gord Montgomery’s first-hand review of Kapalua’s Plantation Course here.

Golfatkapalua on Instagram: “A beautiful day in Maui… @jasondayofficial getting a practice round in on The #PlantationCourse. #Kapalua #HTOC #KapaluaGolf #18 #WhereChampionsComeToPlay”

Golfatkapalua shared a post on Instagram: “A beautiful day in Maui… @jasondayofficial getting a practice round in on The #PlantationCourse. #Kapalua #HTOC #KapaluaGolf #18 #WhereChampionsComeToPlay”. Follow their account to see 1424 posts.

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Weather Forecast for Kapalua, HI

Warning: this weather report is about to make you very jealous.  It’s expected to be nothing but beautiful, sunny, and 80 degree days throughout the entire week at Kapalua.  Even better news for the players this week is the low wind numbers in the forecast.  We’ve seen the wind at Kapalua turn nasty on the field and change the entire outcome of this event in past years so calm weather will be a welcome sight in Kapalua.

Last Year’s Results from the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Last year, our pick Jimmy Walker was coasting all week before his aforementioned collapse at the very end opened the door to the charging Patrick Reed.  Reed quickly overcame a four-shot deficit over the final four holes of regulation and eventually won it over Walker with a birdie during sudden death claiming his fourth career victory in the process.

It was truly amazing to see Reed knock down birdie-eagle-birdie during the final four holes of regulation.  Walker didn’t help himself out either by missing some easy birdie putts down the stretch.

With the win Reed became just the fifth player in 25 years to win four PGA TOUR events by age 25, joining elite names like Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson in the process—Spieth would add his own name to this list just a few short months later

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOlvS80BbUM&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Jan 7, 2016) – Friday (Jan 8, 2016): 6:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (Jan 9, 2016)  – Sunday (Jan 10, 2016) 3:00 pm – 7:00pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday: 5:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday: 2:00pm – 7:00pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions this Week

StarsDraft and DraftKings are some of the bigger online fantasy venues who will be kicking off 2016 by hosting contests for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  For those of you looking for season-long contests we suggest checking out Fantasy Fairway or any of our other favorites mentioned here.  But if it’s weekly fantasy leagues you’re after it should come as no surprise that DraftKings once again leads the pack when it comes to contest and payout size.  Here’s our favorite contest this week:

• DraftKings PGA $200K Birdie ($200,000 Guaranteed): Golf is back on DraftKings with this premier kickoff $3 entry game that guarantees $15K to the winner.  Sounds like a pretty sweet way to kick off 2016!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Like WGT events, picking for the TOC can be a real challenge because you have a limited field of all proven winners and guys hungry to scoop up as many early FedExCup points early as they can.  Kapalua has yielded some great scores in the past (as long as wind stays away from the island) and given this week’s calm weather forecast that’s exactly what we expect to see this week.

For those who can only pick players a certain amount of times (e.g. suicide pools), perhaps you want to save your big dogs for more elaborate events like THE PLAYERS or any of the Majors.  If you’re playing salary cap this week, you simply won’t have the room to have Spieth and Day on the same roster.  Heck, given their hefty price tags you probably won’t be able to tandem Spieth, Day, Johnson, or Watson at all.  Essentially, you need to pick one horse out of those four unless you plan on filling the other four spots with $6K priced players, which is never the best option.

Our last bit of advice is this: Putting has been the deciding factor here over the years and each of the last four winners of this event led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, so if you’re going to key in on a few stats those should be your primary focus.

So who’s going to be your horse for the course this week? Spieth, Day, DJ, or Watson?  We’ll break it down for you in our picks segment below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)

Horse Pick: Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, or Bubba Watson?

Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 3/2 FPPG: 117.00 GPFP: NA Salary:$12,500): Yep, this a no brainer and we strongly believe that the Jordan train won’t be slowing down anytime soon.  Since coming off a $22 million dollar FedExCup winning season with two major wins and now holding the #1 player in the world title, Jordan has continued to pour it on, finishing T2 in Australia and fourth in the Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge.  His putting skills are exactly what Kapalua requires and if his flat iron is on Spieth could run away with this one.  His only prior appearance here was in 2014 when he finished in an impressive solo second.

• GIR Rank: 258th
• Scrambling: 14th
• Putting Average: 6th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green:  NA

* Most Notable Stat: Overall Putting Average: 5th

Mid-Tier Pick I: Rickie Fowler or Dustin Johnson?

Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 102.50 GPFP: 82.00 Salary: $10,000): Bubba and DJ are clear contenders this week, but we feel good about Rickie here.  Fowler hasn’t been back since his debut at Kapalua in 2013 after notching his first victory ever in 2012 at Quail Hollow but things are completely different Rickie since then after winning three times (worldwide) in 2015.  He comes in fresh off of a solo third at the Hero four weeks ago and looks to be on a mission to win his first major this year.  Plus, this boy can roll in putts from pretty much anywhere, which should make him a serious contender versus Spieth.  Don’t put too much emphasis into his stats since his 2016 numbers only accounts for three events thus far but it is worth noting that he finished in the Top 25s in all three of those appearances.

• GIR Rank: 161st
• Scrambling: 77th
• Putting Average: 21st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green:  164th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained – Putting: 1st

Mid-Tier Pick II: Kevin Kisner, Brooks Koepka, or Justin Thomas?

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 103.40 GPFP: 128.19 Salary: $8,700): JT can be a silent killer this week with a towering tee shot in his bag.  Thomas has four events played so far this season including his first (of hopefully many more) wins coming at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia.  Justin is a decent putter who finds greens quite often so he should see plenty of scoring opportunities.  He’s coming off a phenomenal rookie season where he held the stat for most sub-70 rounds and ranked second in Par-5 scoring thanks to his booming drives.  Kapalua, look out for this new face!

• GIR Rank: 50th
• Scrambling: 144th
• Putting Average: 44th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 33rd

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around: 5th

Low-Tier Picks (2): Jimmy Walker, Emiliano Grillo, or Russell Knox?

Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 32/1 FPPG: 79.50 GPFP: 80.00 Salary: $8,900): J-Walk seems to light it up on Hawaiian islands with a P2 here last year and back-to-back wins at the Sony Open (next week’s event).  His game seems to perk up this time of year before falling off come summer but he looked pretty good at the Hero World Challenge with a T8 coming off of 27 birdies during the week—granted that there were no more than two dozen players in the field that week.  Before that he finished T50 at the Shriner’s due to a bad final round (66-67-69-78).  Knox would be a good play here, but we like both games just the same and for the $100 savings on salary cap, Walker is a no-brainer.  His 2016 stats will make you scratch your head, but trust us (and your gut) on this one.

• GIR Rank: 170th
• Scrambling: 169th
• Putting Average: 130th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 165th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained – Putting: 18th

Emiliano Grillo (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 73.00 GPFP: 60.59 Salary: $7,900): This rookie is set up for an ROY type season with a lot of talking heads already giving him the title.  The 23-year-old came off his Web.com championship win and followed it up immediately with his impressive season-opening win at the Frys.com Open.  This could be a good place to play him this week since you may not use him much in the bigger events if you’re in a one-and-done league.  Emiliano struggles with a putter which is our only hesitation for him this week, but again, we’re liking him over the more popular (and perhaps overused) Knox.

• GIR Rank: 131st
• Scrambling:  31st
• Putting Average: 114th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 20th

* Most Notable Stat:  Total Driving: 6th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 91.83 GPFP: 104.69 Salary: $7,100): When you play fantasy golf you need to rely on your sleepers to get you to the top.  If we had to pick two low priced guys this week we’re running with Piercy and Kirk.  Piercy comes in from the Fall Season with three events played (T25, T7, T35) and has Top 15s in both of his appearances here.  You have to love his current rank in strokes gained: tee-to-green (12th).

• GIR Rank: 77th
• Scrambling: 33rd
• Putting Average: 92nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 12th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 66.63 GPFP: 53.30 Salary: $7,300): We needed a true sleeper here and Kirk seems like the just right fit.  He looks to be fully recovered from his broken hand and his most recent finishes include a T18 at the RSM Classic which he followed up with a T10 at the Hero.  In all Kirk has finished no worse than T16 in three visits to Kapalua in his career.

• GIR Rank: 242nd
• Scrambling: 124th
• Putting Average: 204th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 59th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 59th

Sample DraftKings Roster with Spieth (Option 1)

Sample DraftKings Roster with Spieth (Option 2)

Sample DraftKings Roster without Spieth

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Last Event’s Top 3 Picks/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 4/1) 4th  ($175,000)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 16/1) 3rd ($250,000)
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 22/1)  T17 ($102,500)

Last Event’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge

• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 40/1) T8 (130,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”17.39%” bar_text=”8 out of 46 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”26.08%” bar_text=”12 out of 46 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”28.57%” bar_text=”2 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Sleeper Report Winners Picked” percent=”14.28%” bar_text=”1 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”28.57%” bar_text=”2 out of 7 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”82.60%” bar_text=”38 out of 46 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked (TBD)” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 0 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Hyundai Tournament of Champions with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo by Kapalua Plantation Golf via Flickr