Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 RSM Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the RSM Classic

2016 RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

It was an emotional return, of sorts, for Pat Perez as he secured just his second PGA TOUR title win at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba last week.  Perez’s victory was perhaps made that much sweeter given the fact that he missed the majority of last season through injury.  The win showed that Pat still has what it takes to win a PGA TOUR event and it will be interesting to see how the 40-year-old builds on what we could term a breakthrough victory of sorts.

Perez benefited from almost routine meltdowns from the likes of Gary Woodland and Scott Piercy when in contention, and it will be interesting to see how many DFS managers and Vegas bettors kick that gruesome twosome to the curb after yet another Sunday shocker.

 

From one Classic to another….this week the Tour heads back to US soil for the RSM Classic from Sea Island, Georgia.  This is one of those events that takes place across split courses – the resort’s Plantation and Seaside stretches – and with this being the final Fall tournament of the calendar year those in the field this week will be looking to sign off in style.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Unfortunately, last week the majority of our picks fell victim to the cut line but the three that made it through included Knox who finished with a strong at 3rd and Reavie at T4.

Don’t get down on yourself if you failed to pickup a Rod Pampling or Pat Perez.  The Fall season (which is rapidly coming to an end) always brings out a few surprises and this year has been no exception.

After taking nearly the entire 2015-2016 season off (following surgery) a Pat Perez win came as a shock to many of us.  Regardless, we congratulate Pat on an impressive come-back win and now we move on to this week’s selections.

The 2016 RSM Classic Field

A slightly disappointing field will gather in Georgia for this week’s RSM Classic given that Ryder Cup chief Davis Love III is the host, with the obvious standouts in the field being some of Love’s representatives at Hazeltine in Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, and Zach Johnson.

There is also the European Tour’s ‘Race to Dubai’ finale and the Australian Open (Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth are in attendance there, amongst others) this week, so this RSM Classic line-up has a rather limited feel to it.

The defending champion Kevin Kisner will it tee up this week as will Kevin Chappell, a fine young talent who will be hoping to emulate Kisner in getting over the line after a series of near-misses.

Others like Bill Haas, Jim Furyk, Chris Kirk, and Harris English will be looking to take advantage of the opportunities that could present themselves in Georgia this week.

This Week’s Course Preview

For the second time in the event’s history, the RSM Classic will be contested cross two courses in the typical rotation format.

The first course is the Seaside stretch, a testing Par 70 measuring in at 7,055 yards that offers plenty of scoring opportunities but some rather vicious winds to contend with too as they whip up from the St. Simons Island coast.

Links-style in nature and Bermuda grass in construction, the Seaside course hosts either round one or two and then both of the weekend 18s, so getting to grips with this track is essential for any player looking to lift the trophy on Sunday afternoon.

The Plantation course opened its doors for the first time in competitive play in 2015, and is a rather more typical 7,058 yard, Par 72 affair.  With expansive fairways and some enticing pin-angles, it is unsurprising to note that Kisner played his Plantation jaunt in a bogey-free 65, which featured five birdies and an eagle at the Par 5 seventh.

Weather Forecast for Saint Simons Island, Georgia

The weather is set to be fair, sunny and warm for this curtain call on the Fall season, with four consecutive days of South Coast sunshine expected.

With just a 10% chance of rain on Friday and Saturday, there should be no weather-related disruptions which will help the smooth progress of this extensive 155-man tournament, although winds ranging from 10mph-15mph (these are likely to be even breezier at local level) could hurt the chances of those without a strong wind game.

Last Year’s Results from the RSM Classic

Let’s be honest here: Kevin Kisner absolutely slayed the Sea Island courses in his winning effort in 2015.  At -22 he was six shots clear of Chappell in second and, for context, eleven shots clear of the group tied for sixth.  That’s some serious dominance even against a “weaker” field.

Kisner opened up at the Plantation course with a 65 to start one shot off the lead, and he never looked back from there with rounds of 67, 64, and 64 showing complete confidence in his game around the Seaside course.  It was one of the most one-sided triumphs of the PGA TOUR calendar in 2015.

It probably helps that Kisner is a Georgia graduate that has played the Sea Island resort countless times, and that familiarity certainly contributed to an outstanding four days.  He ranked first for Birdies Made, naturally, and Bogey Avoidance, but most impressive was the all-round nature of his performance; he ranked in the top ten for Greens in Regulation, two putting metrics and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GxzqV0kjNo&end=167&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, 1-4 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
• Mobile Broadcasts:
  •  None
• RADIO: (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com)
  • Thursday-Sunday, 11 a.m.-4 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RSM Classic this Week

This just may be the last opportunity to play DFS fantasy golf in 2016 as far as the PGA TOUR is concerned (we’re still awaiting word on which, if any, contests will be held for the remainder of 2016 tourneys) , so now is as good a time as any to cash your chips and go into your chosen contests hard.  That said, here’s the pick of this week’s DraftKings slate:

• PGA $90K Dogleg: If you’ve got a spare $33 then you could do a lot worse than enter this contest with its $90,000 bounty.  You’ll be battling it out with just 3,151 entries for the big prize, and a top 100 finish will trouser a minimum of $125.

• PGA $100k Fore: The second of this week’s big hitters offers a $100k treasure chest for just a $3 entry.  Finish in the top 400 to win a minimum of 10x that fee.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RSM Classic

Kisner’s dominance was such in 2015 that each and every facet of his game was on fire; making any informed analysis difficult.

Typically this event has proven to be something of a putting contest, which was proven once again in 2015 with Kisner coming alive on the dancefloor and ranking first for Putts per GIR and fourth for Strokes Gained: Putting.  His short game was in fine shape too, and ensured he ranked T9 for Greens in Regulation and 2nd for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

Neither of these tracks are long and so no one was surprised to see the shorter hitters off the tee thrive.  Kisner ranked just T54 for Driving Distance but was straight enough (T17 for Accuracy) to still get to the party ahead of schedule.

This is only the second time that the Plantation course has been used in rotation so we are still waiting for more data to make an informed opinion, but it is possible that starting off on this easier course, like Kisner did, can build confidence ahead of a round at the slightly less agreeable Seaside stretch.

A case an be made for a strong local connection as well.  Kisner is actually a South Carolinan homeowner who graduated from the University of Georgia, but at the time of his triumph he was living in the state while his home was being renovated.  Other former champions such as Kirk and Heath Slocum have noted of their familiarity with the Seaside course at least, while other Georgians by birth, education or home – including Russell Henley, Brian Harman, and John Huh – have all recorded top-10 finishes here.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RSM Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RSM Classic

Top Tier Pick: 

Chris Kirk (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 57.4, GPFP: 67.75, Salary: $11,300)

Oh Chris, how thou continues to disappoint all of your supporters.  A run of 7-61-2-8 only serves to tell half the story: he has had a chance of lifting the silverware in each of those outings.

An opening round of 73 ultimately cost him a shot at glory at the Safeway Open, where he finished four shots behind winner Brendan Steele, and that was backed by a bizarre finish of 61st at Shriners after shooting 66-65 in his opening 36.

A pair of other top-10s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and last week’s OHL Classic confirms that Kirk is in fine form, and even if Vegas bettors might be frustrated by his inability to convert form into hardware, at least DFS managers will get their money’s worth.

Kirk won here in 2013 and finished fourth the year after, and a solid T18 in the inaugural split-course renewal of this tournament confirms that the Georgia native simply loves it at Sea Island.  There’s simply no reason why he can’t do the business once again here.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Total – 31st
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green – 35th
• Proximity – 36th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Kevin Kisner (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 62.53, Salary: $9,300)

The ease with which Kisner lifted this trophy in 2015 means he has to be drafted this week, and even though he is lacking the converging form trend (he finished second in the WGC-HSBC Champions prior to his victory a year ago), the signs are that this course specialist is playing well enough to contend.

Three top-20 finishes here (20-4-1) gets the juices flowing, and while a return this Fall season of T26 (CIMB Classic) and T70 (WGC HSBC) is nothing to write home about, he will surely be in finer fettle in his native Georgia and after a couple week’s rest.

The stats, for now at least, are irrelevant given his minimal showings this term.  Just watch the highlights package from last year’s RSM Classic and reassure yourself that course specialism is key here.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Putting – 3rd
• Total Birdies – 15th
• Driving Accuracy – 30th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Lucas Glover (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 57.4, GPFP: 61.37, Salary: $8,900)

It’s a well-trodden path for DFS managers, and the formula ‘current form + strong course history = good result’ once again holds weight here with Lucas Glover.

The South Carolinan has connected two top-5 finishes in his last pair of starts in the Shriners and Sanderson Farms, and he continues to thrive on the shorter stretches where course management and a steady iron game are more important than brute force and overt aggression.

That recipe has certainly proven a success at Sea Island, where Glover returned a T9 last year, and his game appears tailormade for the Seaside course in particular.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 1st
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – 11th
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

John Huh (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 54.7, GPFP: 43.73, Salary: $8,300)

Sometimes, all of the pieces of the puzzle just fall into place: Huh, a renowned wind player that prefers these tactical tests over shows of strength, comes into the RSM Classic on a fine run of four cuts made in as many starts (35-29-10-28).

A handy T9 here last year confirms Huh’s preference for this kind of test, and a T28 at the OHL last week – where he compiled three rounds in the 60s – is pleasing enough.

Lest we forget that at just the young age of 26, Huh has already recorded 12 top-ten finishes and 37 returns in the top 25; an outstanding success rate from a player that often goes under the radar.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Scoring Average – 3rd
• Driving Accuracy – 9th
• Consecutive Fairways Hit – 22nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Wes Bryan (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 51.60, Salary: $7,100)

A number of the Web.com Tour graduates are making their mark on the senior paid ranks of golf’s elite, and one that has gone slightly under the radar compared to the heroics of Cody Gribble and co is Wes Bryan.

For DFS managers, however, Bryan is the stuff of dreams: a low price point is made a mockery of by that healthy 64.5 FPPG.  Such a good return has been fired by his ability to make weekends – three consecutive cuts made on the PGA TOUR (and 3/4 from his invites last season), and that bodes well ahead of a trip to a track that should suit him.

A decent putter that hits plenty of greens, Bryan’s methodical approach could land him plenty of success in the future; and hopefully this week too.

Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Putting – .358
• Strokes Gained: Total – .553
• Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – .612

Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Russell Henley (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 53.6, GPFP: 52.55, Salary: $9,900)

Here’s another player who we’re moving into the “sleeper” column not because of his price tag but rather because of the fact that he seems to be flying under the radar this week and therefore we expect him to be underused by DFS managers.

Local connections are rife this week, and Russell Henley, born in Macon and who studied at the University, has shown the benefit of siding with natives in the past couple of years here.

Big money finishes of T4 and T6 in the last two renewals confirm our theory, and with strong showings at the Sanderson Farms Championship (T14) and Shriners (T24), where he fired in a third round 63, under his belt in the past few weeks we have a gentle reminder that he can do well on tracks that suit his eye; none offer as much encouragement as Sea Island.

Henley has a knack for missing cuts – hence his status as a sleeper rather than a ‘must draft’ – but with just one weekend missed in seven attempts that’s a trend that, temporarily at least, appears to be behind him.

Key Stats:

• Distance from Edge of Fairway – 9th
• Total Putting – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 29th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Patton Kizzire (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 56.5, GPFP: 56.52, Salary: $7,800)

We’ve written a lot about the personal connections to Georgia already this week, and few players are so emotionally attached to the area as Patton Kizzire.

His wife and her family are Georgians, he spent the formative years of his golf career there, he moved to the state and got married here, and is part of the so-called ‘Sea Island Mafia’ with Zach Johnson, Jonathan Byrd, and others.  He’s been practicing hard having missed out on the trip to Mexico last week, and that acclimatization should help him on a track that he is yet to really take to in two previous trips.

But that ability to pull a fantastic performance out of the bag – see that second place at the Safeway Open a matter of weeks ago – plus the emotional connection could yield dividends for DFS managers willing to take something of a punt.

Key Stats:

• Total Putting – 13th
• Strokes Gained: Putting – 19th
• Total Birdies – 43rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Please note: The lineups provided here just examples of combinations that we suggest based on the picks highlighted above. As always, we suggest mixing and matching our picks with your own to give yourself the greatest competitive edge.

 Lineup Sample With Kirk

Lineup Sample Without Kirk

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 RSM Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram