Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds & Predictions – 2016 Safeway Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Safeway Open

2016 Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

The Fall season of the PGA TOUR returns with the ninth rendition of the Safeway Open, or the Frys.com Open as it was formerly known, and this year marks the fourth time that the tournament has kicked off the new season’s campaign.

With the Ryder Cup dust settled and the celebrations over, attention turns to the new season with gusto here in what is normally a rather low-key affair: the return of one Tiger Woods was set to put a change to that this time around.  However, as of just this Monday Tiger has opted to sit out yet another event.

 
The tournament has had a rather nomadic existence since its establishment in 2007, although it appears to have settled, for now at least, at the Silverado Resort & Spa in Napa Valley, which will play host for the third consecutive year.  This former US Senator’s property was transformed into a two-course set-up in the 1960s by famed architect Robert Trent-Jones, with current owner Johnny Miller heading up an overhaul in 2010 when he took hold off the keys to the land.

The two winners since the event moved to Silverado are Sang Moon Bae (-16) in 2014 and current holder Emiliano Grillo, who kicked off an excellent campaign in fine style here 12 months ago and proved that the transition from Web.com Tour to the big boys’ playground does not have to be all that daunting – could that be key information for DFS managers this week?

Last Year’s Fantasy Results

As the 2016-2017 season begins, let’s recap our performance from last season.  It was another solid year for our weekly fantasy predictions finishing with ten winners picks out of 41 events as well as additional winners coming from our Tuesday Sleeper Report and European Tour weekly segments.

In total, we made 218 cuts out of 287 players picks (75.95%), and we all know in Daily Fantasy Golf making the cut is everything.  With three quarters of our picks making the cut and 21.25% making the Top 10, it’s fair to say that 2015-2016 was yet another stellar season.

Here’s the round-up of our winners picked in the 2015-2016 season:

• Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
• Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
• Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
• Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
• Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
• Bubba Watson (Northern Trust Open)
• Adam Scott (WGC Cadillac Championship)
• Charlie Hoffman (Valero Texas Open)
• Jhonnattan Vegas (RBC Canadian Open)
• Dustin Johnson (BMW Championship)

** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).

*** Thomas Pieters was our top European TOUR pick for the KLM Open. (Winner)

The 2016 Safeway Open Field

Now that Tiger has withdrawn, most of the focus will be on guys like Kuchar and Mickelson this week.  Both PGA TOUR veterans will make their first starts since the U.S. Ryder Cup victory, and it will be intriguing to see if there is any hangover from the celebrations that no doubt went on long into the night.  Kuch in particular is playing some solid golf right now, so surely he will be looking to maintain that momentum.

 
Reigning champion Grillo is also in town alongside the in-form Paul Casey, who also happens to be the highest world-ranked player in the field, with the consistent Kevin Na, the rising star Justin Thomas and winners last season Tony Finau, Jhonattan Vegas and James Hahn also in the mix.

This is also the first time that many of the Web.com graduates will tee off as fully-fledged PGA TOUR members, and they will certainly be hoping to take a page out of Grillo’s book.

This Week’s Course Preview

The North Course at Silverado was built in the 1960s as a transformation of a pre-existing Napa Valley estate, firstly by Robert Trent-Jones and later by Johnny Miller and his business partners when they purchased the land in 2010.

The PGA TOUR has stopped by the resort many times since 1968 (those were the days of the Kaiser International), and the track subsequently hosted the Champions Tour’s Transamerica event for 13 years between 1989-2002.  Silverado has been the host venue of the Safeway/Frys.com Open since 2014.

Today it plays as a Par 72 of 7,203 yards, and it has been widely regarded as a classic ‘ball hitters’ course ever since.  The 2014 champ Sang Moon Bae is on record as saying that he “really likes this course because it’s a classic.  Always classic courses you need really good iron shots.  Really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation.”

A photo posted by Ryan Nicholson (@rnicholson815) on Oct 6, 2016 at 7:07pm PDT

That sentiment has very neatly marked out card for this week’s DFS draft – we’re looking for arrow-straight hitters who are efficient from tee-to-green.  With such small greens, proximity is another useful stat in finding those players who can maneuver the ball onto more stringent dance floors without getting themselves into green-side traps.  Effective course management, a notable weapon in Grillo’s arsenal, will also be required.

Weather Forecast for Napa, CA

Expect a soggy and rainy week in Napa as the weather calls for rain and more rain behind it.  This will inevitably slow the course down a bit and make those 7,203 yards seem even longer than usual.

Last Year’s Results from the Safeway Open

Emiliano Grillo is the reigning champion of the Safeway Open after triumphing against Kevin Na in last year’s edition, and it’s interesting to note the Argentine’s rise to glory in what was at the time just his eighth PGA TOUR start – and his first as an official tour card holder.  As such, we can consider the Web.com Tour protégés here once again.

The rookie lifted the trophy after besting Kevin Na in a play-off, and the rest of the top ten was exemplary of this kind of Fall season tournament.  There were a couple of major winners in Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel, a few Tour veterans in the likes of Jason Bohn and Tyrone Van Aswegen plus a smattering of up-and-coming hopefuls in Justin Thomas and Patrick Rodgers.  That mix of talent tells us that there really is no clear cut profile of player to have on your squad in the Safeway Open.

Saturday is typically regarded as moving day in strokeplay golf and that certainly proved the case last year in this event: Grillo, Na, and Bohn, three of the first players home, all shot 65 or lower in their respective third rounds.  With that said, keeping tabs of ‘third round specialists’ may also prove helpful to DFS managers.

The standout features of Grillo’s winning effort were his arrow-straight hitting off the tee (he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and eighth for Driving Accuracy), his first-rate iron game (16th for Greens in Regulation) and his ability to convert on the longer holes (he played the Par 5s in a combined -6).  The Argentine rarely got into trouble, ranking fifth for bogey avoidance, and surprisingly didn’t putt particularly well; he ranked 61st for this metric.  Clearly, getting the ball close to the pin from <200 yards is crucial.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Sunday, 5-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
• Mobile Broadcasts (via PGA TOUR LIVE APP)
  • Thursday-Friday, 10:30 a.m.-5 p.m. (featured groups), 5-8 p.m. (featured holes)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-8 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO:
  • Thursday-Friday, 2-8 p.m.
  • Saturday-Sunday, 3-8 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Safeway Open this Week

There are a fantastic slate of contests this week and we really get the sense that the lull caused by the FedExCup is all but over.

Two contests in particular catch the eye:

• DraftKings $100K 3-Wood: A $15k top prize for a $300 buy-in is top drawer stuff; especially in a 370-team, multi-entry tourney.  Finishing in the top 25% of the contest will ensure a minimum payout of $500 – not to be sniffed at.
• DraftKings $200k Birdie: We’ve all been experiencing daily fantasy withdrawals symptoms recently, right?  Well here’s a chance to get back on track with this mammoth $200k prize pot contest with a mere $3 buy-in.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Safeway Open

Daily fantasy managers have a few areas to key in on this week thanks to Grillo’s outstanding performance here last year.  The 24-year-old is a neat and tidy player who excels on tight courses, hits the ball in straight lines and who boasts an outstanding short game.  Grillo is also a noted competitor in windy conditions, and with gusts up to 13mph expected on Thursday that could well come in handy.

Previous course history is of little relevance seeing as though Grillo and Bae had never seen the stretch prior to their week of winning, although that little voice in the back of our head tells us that prior form around Silverado is still of consequence.  What we do know is that current form is very much of interest: Grillo won here less than a few weeks after winning the Web.com Championship in 2015.

The bookmakers have made Paul Casey their early favourite and that is of little surprise given the form he has shown recently plus his world ranking of 12.  The fact that he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since 2009 – despite a whopping 23 top-ten finishes – will be enough to put plenty off attention on the Englishman.

The ‘Ryder Cup glory effect’ could aid Kuchar and Mickelson’s assaults on the title, while Grillo will be very keen to defend the first piece of silverware earned in his PGA TOUR career.

There was a litany of first-time winners on Tour last season, and this tournament has so far yielded a first and second-timer since it moved to Silverado in 2014: the likes of Jon Rahm, Roberto Castro and Jason Kokrak will take plenty of heart from that.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Safeway Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Safeway Open

Top Tier Pick: 

Matt Kuchar: (Vegas Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 73.5, GPFP: 84.48 Salary: $11,500)

Always the bridesmaid, never a bride is an accusation often leveled at Kuch; here’s a guy with a staggering 85 top-ten finishes in his career and yet just seven titles.

He will be looking to add another trophy to his cabinet here however, and his previous early season form suggests the 38-year-old could well be in the hunt.  He has finished first and/or second in December-based events each year since 2013, and so clearly he loves the early stretches of the PGA TOUR campaign.

Kuchar’s slow-and-steady style are purpose-built for this Silverado test, where he finished 21st on his only visit in 2014, and we also like the fact that in two tournaments where Grillo performed this year – the Olympic Games and the Tour Championships – Kuch also got the job done, which suggests that he is the perfect fit for this kind of challenge.

A fine statistical make-up (see below) is backed by some healthy recent form, including T4 at the BMW Championship and T15 at the Tour Championship, and with just one cut missed in his last 17 starts Kuchar is clearly a daily fantasy manager’s dream.

Key stats:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 16th
• Driving Accuracy – 24th
• Bogey Avoidance – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Jason Kokrak (Vegas Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 55.3, GPFP: 60.28 Salary: $8,300)

The Canadian is running hot again with three consecutive top-20 finishes at the Barclays (T7), Deutsche Bank (T8) and Tour Championships (T17), and after a couple of near misses earlier in the campaign Kokrak must be thinking here is a great opportunity to lift his maiden PGA TOUR win.

Silverado certainly looks to suit his efficient style of play, and while he has unhappy memories of playing here after suffering a DQ last year his excellent ball striking should ensure an improved performance this time around.

Kokrak proved he can mix it up with the PGA TOUR’s best in his series of fine displays in the FedExCup, and now is the time for him to strike out as a proven winner in his own right.

Key stats:

• Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green – 24th
• Greens in Regulation – 26th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Roberto Castro (Vegas Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 74.84 Salary: $9,400)

Of all the players in the field few look as ideally-placed as Castro to launch a title bid; he ranks in the top-30 in the world for six of our key fantasy metrics this week!

The 30-year-old enjoyed a stellar campaign in 2015/16 with top-five returns at the Wells Fargo, Sanderson Farms and September’s BMW Championship, and with 22 cuts made from 27 starts he should be making daily fantasy managers plenty of points well into the weekend.

Alongside the key stats listed below, Castro is also in the world’s top 40 for Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green (21st), Proximity (36th) and Round 2 Scoring (38th), so on paper at least he has every chance of going close on Sunday.

Key stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 6th
• Greens in Regulation – 17th
• Bogey Avoidance – 11th

Low-Tier Pick #1:

Fabian Gomez (Vegas Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 53.3, GPFP: 42.60 Salary: $7,000)

Gomez must have taken plenty of heart from his compatriot’s victory here in 2015, as the Argentine went on to win the Sony Open just a couple of months later.  The breezy Hawaiian conditions suggest that he is a good fit for the Safeway Open too if the early weather forecasts for Napa Valley are to be believed.

Four top-10s last season have marked Gomez down as something of a sleeper pick for contests like this, and with a couple of those being notable – 15th at the Olympics in which Grillo thrived, and T5 at the Deutsche Bank Championship just a few weeks ago – indicate he is hitting the ball well at present.

The 38-year-old’s sole trip to Silverado returned a T17 in 2014, so daily fantasy managers can expect some solid points accumulation from this wily old pro.

Key stats:

• Distance from Edge of Fairway (Off the Tee) – 48th
• Approaches from 100-125 Yards (Rough) – 46th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 73rd

Low-Tier Pick #2:

Robert Garrigus (Vegas Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 59.3, GPFP: 69.35 Salary: $7,100)

While he is often left in the shade by more cosmopolitan rivals, Garrigus’ record of six top-25 finishes in his last ten starts is enough to spark our interest; and his statistical make-up confirms such promise.

There are currently only two players on the PGA TOUR more efficient than the big man in finding the pin (he ranks third for Proximity), and with a Greens in Regulation ranking of 14th he looks a prime candidate for creating plenty of low scoring opportunities here.

Garrigus has not played since August having withdrawn from the Barclays with an elbow injury, and that curtailed a run of form which reads 5-22-22.  If he’s fit and firing here, the 38-year-old could add to his litany of top-25 returns.

Key stats:

• Proximity – 3rd
• Greens in Regulation – 14th
• Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green – 21st

Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Jhonattan Vegas (Vegas Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 63.8, GPFP: 80.43 Salary: $9,100)

It’s odd to think of Vegas as a sleeper after winning earlier in the year, but a bookmaker price of 50/1 marks the Venezuelan down as exactly that.

It’s a surprise too: he performed fantastically well in the 2016 FedExCup events (22-33-24-24), and that came after a hot summer which yielded a title win at the Canadian Open, a T4 at the Barbasol (which he should have won) and a top-25 return from the PGA Championship.  If Vegas’ price tag is too high for a sleeper pick for your squad this week, we’ve provided an alternative below.

Vegas’ fine form has been built on an exceptional statistical background; the highlights of which you can see here:

Key stats:

• Going for the Green – 9th
• Greens in Regulation – 10th
• Shots Gained: Total – 37th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Safeway Open

Chez Reavie (Vegas Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 56.9, GPFP: 45.52 Salary: $7,000)

A final round of 66 at Silverado in 2015 marked Reavie as one to watch here, and a consistent campaign – which led to a FedExCup Playoffs qualification – should provide the perfect platform upon which he can build in the new season.

Seven top-25 finishes in a season are exactly what we look for from a sleeper pick, and with most of these achieved at classic, ‘technical’ courses we can see Reavie should be a good fit here: the fact he has gone two-for-two at 53-17 is evidence of that.

The 35-year-old’s key stats suggest that this is a player who is set to break into the big time soon enough….it’s just a question of when.

Key stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 10th
• Proximity – 13th
• Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green – 29th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”9.30%” bar_text=”26 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.10%” bar_text=”61 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”10 out of 41 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”22.50%” bar_text=”9 out of 41 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.40″ bar_text=”218 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram