Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Fantasy Preview

We’re officially back in the winner’s circle after our Charlie Hoffman pick last week, so this week we’ll focus on staying hot and continuing the momentum.  More to come on last week’s triumph, but first here’s a quick preview for this week’s Zurich.

It’s going to be a solid field this week with names like Fowler, Day, and Rose all in the mix at TPC Louisiana.  Day held the 36-hole lead at Harbour Town before carding a disappointing 79 in Round 3 on a windy day in Hilton Head.  Fowler comes in after taking over the social media world with his boy’s golf trip to the Bahamas and the question everyone has is, “is he fully recovered from all the #SB2K16 shenanigans?”

Last year’s champion Justin Rose will give his best go at becoming the sixth back-to-back champion at the Zurich Classic, and many are putting him as a Top 3 favorite this week.

Before we break down our course description and fantasy notes for the week, let’s look back to see how our picks fared last week in Texas.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we took Charlie Hoffman as one of our picks to win and even featured him on one of our weekly sample DraftKings rosters which gave us our 8th winner picked out of 23 events this season.  Hoffman wasn’t the only big news coming out of last week’s VTO either.  When it was all said and done, five of our seven players made the cut in Texas and we snagged two T13s in addition to the outright winner.  That should have helped your rosters big time!

A photo posted by Golf Channel (@golfchannel) on Apr 25, 2016 at 7:18am PDT

If you’re not a Premium Member yet, here’s a blurb from last week’s picks segment regarding Hoffman:

“… if you can fit [Hoffman] in the mid tier, you can get a solid and reliable fantasy player with a sub-$10k price tag.  If you are going to run with Hoffman this week, here’s why you pick him:  His record on this course since 2011 is as follows: T11 – 2015, T11 – 2014, T2 – 2013, T13 – 2012, T2 – 2011.”

As an added bonus, four of our five Tuesday Sleeper Report picks (all coming off of 50/1 or greater Vegas odds) made the cut with our top pick, Brendan Steele, earning some solid fantasy points with his T13 finish.

With the Hoffman win our season performance is now extended to eight total wins:

1. Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
2. Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
3. Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
4. Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
5. Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
6. Bubba Watson (Northern Trust Open)
7. Adam Scott (WGC Cadillac Championship)
8. Charlie Hoffman (Valero Texas Open)

** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).

The 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Field

As we previewed, the Zurich Classic field will feature a handful of OWGR top players including World No. 1 Jason Day who played well here last year when he shared the 54-hole lead before eventually falling to Justin Rose.  Rose and Day will head up a top-heavy field that also includes No. 5 Rickie Fowler, but that doesn’t mean you can rule out a few of the middle-of-the-pack names this week.

We’re going to dig deeper this week to find some cheaper sleeper picks as there will be plenty to choose from.  A lot of noise is buzzing about Bobby Wyatt, the back-to-back NCAA champ who will be playing this week on a sponsor exemption.  Other names that fantasy players will look at include Horschel, Hoffman, and Bohn but as usual, we’ll break down whose game fits the course in our Fantasy Notes section below.

This Week’s Course Overview

The beautiful TPC Louisiana measures in at 7,425 yards and will play as a par 72 this week.  This track was one of the many diabolical layouts created by course designer (and sadistic genius) Pete Dye along with Steve Elkington.

The course was built on a large Louisiana wetlands area just outside of New Orleans and contains lots of trees, more than 100 bunkers and five ponds which certainly add some challenge along the way—not to mention the gators!

A photo posted by TPC Louisiana (@tpclouisiana) on Aug 24, 2015 at 10:57am PDT

The Zurich Classic came here in 2005 but took a short break in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina before returning to the venue just a year after.  Believe it or not, the course usually ranks among the PGA TOUR’s 10 easiest, despite it being a Dye creation.

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Weather Forecast for Avondale, LA

The weather experts are calling for some hot temperatures in and around the area this week with rain threatening Rounds 1 and 4.  Sunday seems to carry the greatest chances of being a washout with 80% chances of rain.  Swirling winds will be in the area all week and are sure to help keep scoring down a bit.

Last Year’s Results from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

In last year’s edition of the Zurich Classic Justin Rose banged in birdies at 17 and 18 on a wet final day to claim his seventh PGA TOUR victory.  Rose began the day on the heels of a 7-under 65 the day before and ended up shooting a 66 on Sunday, which was enough to secure his win.

Rose slammed the door shut on the field when he smacked a 5-iron on the par-3 17th that came to rest just 10 feet from the hole.  He finished his birdie without flinching and then he dropped another 14-footer for birdie at No.18.  His strong finish was enough to hold off a charging Cameron Tringale.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ9q4H8IlsA&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday (April 28, 2016) – Friday (April 29, 2016) 3:00 pm- 6:00 pm EST (GC)
  • Saturday (April 30, 2016) – Sunday (April 31, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (GC), 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday-Friday, 8:00 am – 3:00 pm ET (featured groups), 3:00 – 6:00 pm (featured holes).

• RADIO: Thursday-Sunday 1:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this Week

The big game is coming, but for now why not try for a chance to qualify for a free ticket to the big show?  Although we agree it’s easier to just put up the $20 and play the big game, consider the fact that for 3 bucks you can built five solid rosters with multiple variations of our picks.  Win your way in with one of those rosters andyou just just saved $5 and you could even have up five free chances at the big game come June 16th.  Here’s the details:

• PGA $3.5M FANTASY GOLF MILLIONAIRE SUPERSATELLITE ($3 Entry): The max entrants is just shy of 8K and the top 1000 get a ticket (we like those chances).  Who knows, you could have a solid set of sleepers and clean up across the board.  We’re not sure about you, but we like our chances to win at least two or three out of those five chances you can play for $15 this week.
• No Halftime (Player Vs. Player Heads Up Fantasy Golf): You select the match-up and determine the prize in this hot new heads up fantasy app.  Check out the weather, look at some player stats, and select your man in a one on one fantasy game.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

This week we want long ball hitters who can control their putters.  We’re willing to overlook a player’s poor accuracy if they excel in some of the other key stats for defeating TPC Louisiana.  It’s a long track with tight fairways and tricky greens, so scrambling and Strokes Gained Putting are important as well.

Last year Rose ranked 12th in Driving Distance, T3 in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Scrambling, and T12 in Strokes Gained Putting.  That was definitely a recipe for success here and this year’s winner will most likely finish the week leading in similar statistical categories.

Since the track is long (coming in at just under 7,500 yards) a wise play would be to key in on players who score well on long par 3s and par 5s.

Now let’s try to make it two weeks in row…

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

We we’re torn between Rickie and Jason for the top spot this week and although we liked the $1400 savings in Fowler, we just couldn’t pull the trigger on Rickie.  But don’t worry, if your heart is set on him being your horse pick we’ll show you a way to rotate Fowler into a sample lineup below.  In the meantime, we’re going Day, all day.

Jason Day (Golficity Odds 4/1 FPPG: 76.57 GPFP: 76.57 Salary: $12,500): By now you know that we don’t often pick the highest priced player in the field as that usually leaves very little room for quality selections in the rest of your roster, but we just can’t bet against the OWGR No. 1 at TPC Louisiana.  So far this season the only cut Jason missed was Torrey Pines, an event in which just about every elite player in the field missed the cut.  Day is rapidly building on his success from last season as he already has four Top 10s and two wins on the year.  There’s no denying that Jason has towering distance off the tee and a very hot putter but his accuracy can hurt him.  We’re willing to overlook that because his short stick and all-around can easily bail him out.

• Scrambling: 81st
• Driving Accuracy: 164th
• Driving Distance: 36th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 3rd

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting 2nd

Daniel Berger (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 61.13 GPFP: 48.90 Salary:$10,100): Odds are you won’t be able to get Day and Berger on your roster this week, but  if you’re playing a multi-roster strategy like we suggested you can interchange them nicely, and we’ll provide some roster variations below to back that up.  Berger won’t be looked at as many fantasy players as Rose and some of the other “buzz” players this week which is why we think you could gain an edge by drafting him to your roster.  His stock is definitely rising on TOUR and when he’s not posting Instagram picks of his hot girlfriend Tori Slater, he’s usually carding some nice rounds on the course.  Berger comes into TPC Louisiana with three Top 11s in his last four starts and his most recent finish was a solid T10 showing at Augusta.  He has a longer drive than Day and a very solid short game to boot.  If his putter is working this week the rest of the field will need to put in some serious work to stop him.

• Scrambling: 118th
• Driving Accuracy: 158th
• Driving Distance: 25th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 79rd

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 25th

Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 63.50 GPFP: 80.01 Salary: $8,400): Here’s a guy with power that can convert eagles, which by the way adds +8 points to a fantasy player’s total—if you’re unsure how that works, be sure to check out DraftKings’ scoring rules.  Lovemark has four top 10s and another three top 25s this season and he seems to be trending despite his slip-up at Harbour Town.  Regardless, this guy hits ’em long (9th in driving distance) and he knows how to scramble (7th in scrambling).  At under $8,500 we like him as a solid mid-tier pick this week.

• Scrambling: 7th
• Driving Accuracy: 169th
• Driving Distance: 9th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 58th

* Most Notable Stat: Scrambling: 7th

Aaron Baddeley (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 62.00 GPFP: 49.60 Salary: $7,800): This boy’s been trending hard and he comes into TPC Louisiana beaming with confidence.  Baddeley has four Top 10 finishes this season and was in contention last week in Texas before dropping out with a closing 74 Sunday.  He’s a solid putter, as evidenced by his 6th place ranking in Strokes Gained Putting and he has some decent power off the tee.  Take note of this mid-tier powerhouse as he and Ricky Barnes are two trending players worthy of a look this week for sure.

• Scrambling: 8th
• Driving Accuracy: 179th
• Driving Distance: 89th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 6th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting: 6th 

Ricky Barnes (Golficity Odds 55/1 FPPG: 65.82 GPFP: 46.08 Salary: $7,800): Ricky’s been making some noise lately with his two consecutive Top 10 finishes.  He led the VTO after 54 holes but, like Baddeley, he fell back Sunday to a T4 with his closing 74.  So you might be thinking, Barnes hasn’t strung together Top 10s in five years!  So why pick him now?  The answer is that he led the field at Harbour Town in Strokes Gained Putting and his game is beginning to prove more consistent as of late.  What he lacks in power he makes up with putting.  We’re sorry we didn’t pick him up last week, and we won’t make that mistake again this time around.

• Scrambling: 50th
• Driving Accuracy:  191st
• Driving Distance: 87th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 17th

* Most Notable Stat:  Putting Average: 18th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

David Hearn (Golficity Odds 78/1 FPPG: 52.75 GPFP: 42.20 Salary: $7,400): You’ll see a lot of fantasy experts touting Hearn this week due to his track record here, and we definitely agree.  Hearn has proven successful at TPC Louisiana in the past with a perfect six made cuts in six tries including three top 25 finishes.  Last year he finished T6 here as he ranked an impressive first overall in Greens in Regulation.  David now comes in on the heels of a T13 at the VTO last week which shows us his game is ready to make some more noise this week.  He’s not long off the tee but he’s pretty accurate overall and he just may scramble his way to another great finish at TPC Louisiana.

• Scrambling: 86th
• Driving Accuracy: 32nd
• Driving Distance: 166th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 119th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Accuracy: 32nd

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Morgan Hoffman (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 48.27 GPFP: 38.62 Salary: $6,700): Bottom line is that if you’re going to pick Day, you’ll need some low priced players on your roster.  Like Hearn, Morgan Hoffman is another player who has performed well here at the Zurich.  Hoffman has made it to the weekend in all three of his attempts here and has a sub-70 scoring average on this track.  He makes a lot of eagles and can handle his putter very well.  Needless to say, his game has been a bit shaky this season but he snapped a streak of four missed cuts to bank a T23 in Hilton Head.  At 100/1 odds Morgan is a gutsy play that could pay dividends.

• Scrambling: 107th
• Driving Accuracy: 144th
• Driving Distance: 57th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 23rd

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Putting: 23rd

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week

Sample DraftKings Roster with Day

Sample DraftKings Rosters without Day

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 18/1) T42 ($19,468)
• J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 20/1) T13 ($103,075)
• Charley Hoffman (Golficity Odds 30/1) WINNER ($1,116,000)
• Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 46/1)  T13 ($103,075)
• Chez Reavie (Golficity Odds 50/1) MC

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Aaron Baddeley (Golficity Odds 75/1) T29 ($27,743)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

• Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 100/1) MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.56%” bar_text=”17 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.36%” bar_text=”36 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”34.78%” bar_text=”8 out of 23 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”17.39%” bar_text=”4 out of 23 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.43″ bar_text=”115 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram