Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2016 Valero Texas Open

The Sleeper Report: Fantasy Golf Sleepers, Long Shots, and Undervalued Picks for the 2016 Valero Texas Open from San Antonio, TX

2016 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Sleeper Preview

The PGA TOUR will head back to Texas the week for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio; a par-72, 7,435-yard course which had Sergio Garcia as a contributor to the design.  Over the past three seasons this event was held in the weeks leading up to the Masters, but has now been moved back to this April date as the players take aim at a course which presents plenty of challenges to every type of player.  The Texas swing has always been eventful as some of the bigger names stay home, leaving the door open for plenty of new blood to get to the top of the leaderboard.

This week the field will be free of any of the Official World Golf Rankings top-10, but there will still be plenty of well-known, talented players aiming their sights at the winner’s circle come Sunday afternoon.  In total there will be seven players from the top-25 with the top name, according to the OWGR, being World No. 11 Branden Grace; winner of last week’s RBC Heritage.  He was able to take down the trophy in Hilton Head thanks to a score of nine-under-par; besting runners-up Russell Knox and Luke Donald by a pair of strokes for his first career PGA TOUR victory.  Also in this group will be two-time Texas Open winner Zach Johnson (2008, 2009) along with No. 13 Patrick Reed, No. 16 Brandt Snedeker, No. 18 Brooks Koepka, No. 19 Phil Mickelson, and No. 21 J.B. Holmes.

Recently falling out of the world top-25 was last year’s winner and local favorite Jimmy Walker.  Walker lives less than an hour away from this venue, so it was no surprise when he posted a score of 11-under par over the four days last year and earned his second win of the 2015 campaign.  It was an impressive victory as he did so while holding off one of the best players in the game, Jordan Spieth, who was breathing down his neck in the second position.  In the end, Walker outdueled the youngster by an impressive four strokes and will now look to become the third back-to-back winner here for the third time since the turn of the century.  His four-stroke margin of victory was the largest since Tommy Armour III defeated the rest of the field by seven strokes back in 2003.

With some of the biggest names out there choosing not to make the trip to San Antonio, this event is ripe for the picking and it will be interesting to see if one of the high Vegas odds players can make a run at the top spot.  Now on to five golfers who could do just that following the conclusion of this tournament.

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2016 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

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2016 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Mix and match these players with your usual rosters (or play them separately) to get the most out of your picks this week.

Brendan Steele – Vegas Odds 66/1: Steele broke out with a career year in 2015, netting a final standing of 50th in the FedExCup Race behind 11 top-25s in a mere 24 events.  He missed the cut just four times, and while he has matched that number over twelve 2016 tournaments, he is still impressing this year with four finishes within the top-25; including a third-place at the CIMB Classic.  He’ll be looking to get back on track this week after failing to reach the weekend at both the Houston Open and RBC Heritage and will be at the perfect venue to do just that.  In 2011 he earned his one career PGA TOUR victory while playing here and since then has added a fourth (2012) and walked away in eighth just last year.  Steele is typically in position to put up some low scores thanks to a massive drive (303.7 yards per, 17th on TOUR) and the ability to hit greens with regularity (69.72% GIR, 25th on TOUR) and will use those strengths this week as he looks for a fourth top-10 in six visits here.

Si Woo Kim – Vegas Odds 66/1: Kim may not be able to legally drink for another two months, but that hasn’t stopped him from making a mark during his first full season on the PGA TOUR.  After failing to make the cut in any of his eight events back in 2013, Kim has made the necessary adjustments to be competitive week-to-week and is 12-for-16 (75%) in cuts made with eight top-25s (2 top-10s) during this campaign.  His recent play also suggests that he is ready to make the next step as a winner with a 13th at the Shell Houston Open and a 14th last week in South Carolina while gaining nearly a stroke on the field from putting each time out.  There is no one part of his game that is elite, but he ranks in the top-50 in driving accuracy (65.04%, 42nd on TOUR), scoring average (70.629, 40th on TOUR), and scrambling (64.19%, 25th on TOUR) which should allow him to continue on a great stretch of golf.

Bryce Molder – Vegas Odds 90/1: Molder earns a spot here thanks to some great recent performances combined with the ability to make the cut and do well in this particular event.  On the year he is a mere 7-for-14 (50%) in cuts made, but has now reached the weekend in four consecutive events while coming through with a tie for sixth last week.  He managed this behind 1.431 strokes gained putting and really excelled on Sunday with an impressive 67.  Heading to San Antonio should be a comfortable move as Bryce has made the trip four times since 2011 with three cuts made.  Two of those appearances ended with him in the top-25 with his best coming in 2015 as he tied for 20th after shooting two-over-par.  Molder doesn’t have much distance off the tee, but is accurate (64.94%, 44th on TOUR) and has a great short game (65.14% scrambling, 16th on TOUR) which could give him a huge advantage on these narrow fairways.  His 90/1 odds this week are reflective of Molder’s inconsistency, but he can be good for a few top-10s each year and could add this week’s VTO to that list

Aaron Baddeley – Vegas Odds 100/1: There was a time where Baddeley would be mentioned among the top names in the game, and in the first year of the FedExCup Race he proved that with a finish of ninth.  Since then he has had one other fantastic season, but has failed to live up to expectations in any other campaign.  He is once again following this trend as he is currently in 7oth in the FedExCup standings, but is 9-for-13 (69%) in cuts made and has converted those nine trips to the weekend into four top-10 finishes.  The most recent was just last week at the RBC Heritage where his three-under performance earned him a tie for ninth thanks to an amazing putting performance (1.863 strokes gained putting).  He now gets a chance to head back to an event where he has done very well before (finishing 3rd in 2010) and has made the cut in his last four visits.  His name can no longer be mentioned among the best in the game, but he may have another win up his sleeve and an event like this is a perfect place to bring it out.

Cameron Tringale – Vegas Odds 125/1: Tringale is a pretty big wildcard in this game, but he has been a solid performer in each of the last two seasons, ranking in the top-36 of the FedExCup standings each time, and is a threat to put up a big week at any time.  That fact is evident this year as he had a runner-up showing at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open while scoring 48 shots under par during an early season three outing stretch.  Tringale comes in on the heels of missed cuts in four of his last seven events, but should see Saturday and Sunday based off of past results in the tourney.  He has been here for the last six installments of this event, making the cut four times and netting two top-10s.  Don’t sleep on this 28-year-old as he continues to look for his first PGA TOUR victory.

Need a few more options to fill up your roster?  Remember to check out our new fantasy predictions stats page for Golficity Predicted Fantasy Points, Price Per Fantasy Point, and more info on every player in this week’s field!

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions?  Check out our full fantasy preview for the Valero Texas Open here.

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