Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Valero Texas Open

2016 Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

This week’s Valero Texas Open will be the first of three events before THE PLAYERS kicks off in mid-May.  Although these late-spring events are not usually huge television features, we’ll still see some pretty big names in the fields, especially this week.  Elite players like Walker, Reed, and Mickelson will all go head-to-head at what should be a fun showdown in Texas.

Speaking of Phil Mickelson, the lefty veteran, who was one of the many to fall victim of the cut line at the Masters, looks too bounce back after a short break to try and crack his first ever Top 25 finish at TPC San Antonio.  Brandt Snedeker will also play this week after having a great finish at Augusta, but unexpectedly missing the cut last week in Hilton Head.

Another featured player this week that some may look at to add to their fantasy rosters is Charley Hoffman.  Hoffman has finished in the top 15 an unbelievable nine times in his last 10 visits to the Valero Texas Open, which including a second place finish in 2011.

A photo posted by Valero Texas Open (@valerotxopen) on Apr 10, 2016 at 11:09am PDT

Lastly, golf’s brand new sensation Bryson DeChambeau is back at it after two successful weeks, including the mega sponsorship deal he signed with both Cobra Puma and Bridgestone and his T4 finish at last week’s RBC Heritage—his first PGA TOUR event as a professional.  Let’s see if he can continue to ride the momentum.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Needless to say, it was a tough week in Hilton Head as many fantasy favorites and even a few of our top names fell victim to the cut line on Friday.  Our best finish last week was Bill Haas at T14 and both sleeper picks went on to make the cut, although didn’t finish as high as we’d hoped.

Since we are about halfway through the 2015-2016 season, let’s recap our winners to date in as we look to expand the list this Sunday.  We’re certainly due for another winner.

1. Justin Thomas (CIMB Classic)
2. Kevin Kisner (RSM Classic)
3. Jordan Spieth (Hyundai TOC)
4. Fabian Gomez (Sony Open)
5. Jason Dufner (Career Builder Challenge)
6. Bubba Watson (Northern Trust Open)
7. Adam Scott (WGC Cadillac Championship)

** Emiliano Grillo was our Sleeper Report pick for the Frys.com Open (Winner).

The 2016 Valero Texas Open Field

The headliners this will include defending champion Jimmy Walker, fellow Texas native Patrick Reed, the aforementioned Brandt Snedeker, and of course Phil Mickelson.  In total, nine players from the OWGR Top 30 will be in the field this week with Reed ranking highest at 11th.   Some late add-ons to the field include Matt Kuchar and Ernie Els.

This will mark Phil Mickelson’s third consecutive visit to the Valero Texas Open and 2016 will mark Kuchar’s fifth year in a row at this event.  Once again all eyes will be on newcomer Bryson DeChambeau, as the golfing world continues to monitor the recent success of the Masters low amateur who made his pro debut at last weeks RBC Heritage (T4).

For more here is a look at the full field for this week’s event from PGATOUR.com.

This Week’s Course Overview

TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks) measures in at a lengthy 7,435 yards and plays to a par 72.  This track is fairly new, opening its doors just six years ago in 2010, and certainly does offer its challenges.

The Greg Norman design also had the input and design help of Sergio Garcia as the two golf stars brought forth a gem of a golf course.  The Oaks course features narrow fairways and a plethora of bunkers that run as deep as 12 feet.  The course is also riddled with native vegetation which usually forces many “unplayable lies.”

If you recall the 2012 edition of the VTO,  Kevin Na carded a 16 at the par-4 ninth after failing to escape from the rocks and wooded area.  More about the course stats in our Fantasy Notes segment below.

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Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX

There is rain in the forecast for Rounds 1 and 4 this week with temperatures staying consistent in the 80s.  Thunderstorms threaten the area on Thursday and some light rain is called for on the final day.

Hard to tell if the rain we’re expecting will lead to any delays but if thurderstorms do make an appearance we just might see a Monday finish this week.

Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open

Jimmy Walker won his second event of the season at the 2015 VTO after outpacing a charging Jordan Spieth.  In the end Walker finished with an impressive four-stroke victory, and in fact, this event was played pre-Masters in 2015.   This year the TOUR moved the schedule around which bumped the Valero Texas Open to a date after the Masters.

Recalling the event a bit further, Jordan was seven shots back with eight holes to go and went on a birdie train with four straight birdies late in the day.  His impressive late run was in vein however because the untouchable Walker made back-to-back (long) birdies at 16 and 17 which led him to a closing 70 on Sunday.  In total, Walker finished the week with an 11-under 277 that simply could not be matched.

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (April 21, 2016) – Friday (April 22, 2016) 3:00 pm- 6:00 pm EST (GC)
  • Saturday (April 23, 2016) – Sunday (April 24, 2016) 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (GC),  3:00 pm – 6:00 pm (CBS)

• Mobile Broadcasts via the PGA TOUR LIVE App
  • Thursday-Friday, 8:30 am – 3:00 pm ET (featured groups), 3:00 – 6:00 pm (featured holes).

• RADIO: Thursday-Sunday 1:00 – 6:00 pm ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM)

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week

The Masters may be behind us but the $3.5 Million Fantasy Golf Millionaire is back in full force for the 6/16 U.S. Open.  Reserve a seat now or if you can’t plan that far in advance, try one of the weekly games we found below.

• PGA $700K FANTASY GOLF THUNDERDOME SATELLITE: This 184-player contest features $5,300 in total prizes and first place wins a coveted PGA Thunderdome Ticket (6/16/16).

• No Halftime ($0 to $100 Head Up Bets): Whats great about No Halftime is that your player doesn’t even have to finish first or even in a Top 25 for you to win some heads up cash.  You simply pick a player and select a round to beat a player in another round.  For example, you can take Matt Kuchar in Rd. 2 this week to have a better score than Jimmy Walker in Rd. 4.  This player vs. player fantasy golf style is simple, fun, and the action keeps going even after regular lineups lock on Thursday morning.  If you haven’t given it a shot yet hop in for this week’s Valero!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valero Texas Open

Here’s what we know about TPC San Antonio:  The course is long, so big hitters off the tee usually fair pretty well here.  That said, Walker ranked 4th in the field in Driving Distance at last year’s VTO and the event distance leader was DJ who also finished an impressive T6.

AT&T Oaks’ only challenge isn’t its length however and there is definitely an advantage to hitting as many greens in regulation as you can here.  Not only did last year’s winner Jimmy Walker rank first here last year in GIR he also ranked first in Strokes Gained Putting.

So what does this all mean?  Time to stack your rosters with long ball hitters (scrambling is not a major concern for us this week), along guys who can find greens, and a solid putting game.  Sounds obvious but the devil is in the details this week so keep a close eye on those key statistics.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 18/1 FPPG: 69.73 GPFP: 55.78 Salary: $10,700):  The big question is whether or not this guy is due.  Just because we haven’t heard his name much over the last two seasons doesn’t mean Kuch is slumping.  Take a closer look and you’ll see that Matt has quietly made 10 of 11 cuts this season with seven Top 25 (three Top 10s) finishes.  He’s also 4-for-4 on this track and has never finished worse than a T22 (2013).  We just love his ability to succeed on courses that he knows so well—his love affair with Harbour Town showed last week with a T9 finish.  His lack of power off the tee worries us a bit, but he’s one of the exceptions for this track and history has proven that his game doesn’t need it at TPC San Antonio.

• Driving Accuracy: 165th
• Greens in Regulation: 88th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 34th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 34th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 11th

J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 20/1 FPPG: 79.13 GPFP: 98.91 Salary:$10,100): Where Kuchar lacks in power, Holmes can provide that boost to your roster this week.  The long ball hitter is coming in off the the heels of solid T4 at the Masters even with a nursed shoulder injury.  He has five top-11 finishes in last seven starts and seems to like TPC San Antonio as evidenced by his two top 15s here.  Finau and Woodland are the only players on TOUR that rank ahead of him in Driving Distance and neither of them are playing this week, which makes him the longest hitter in the field for the VTO this year.  With eight made cuts out of eight attempts there’s no denying that Holmes loves to stick around on the weekends.  If his putting can hang with this long game Holmes might just be unstoppable.

• Driving Accuracy: 3rd
• Greens in Regulation: 100th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 102nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 39th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 3rd

Charley Hoffman (Golficity Odds 30/1 FPPG: 55.86 GPFP: 55.31 Salary: $9,600): A lot of talking heads are favoring Hoffman as a horse pick due to his past success, but we couldn’t put him that high on our list.  However, we do see his merits this week and if there was ever a time to pick him, it would be at TPC San Antonio this week.  He comes in on a nice little streak of finishing no worse than a T38 in his last six consecutive starts (his T11 at the Valspar was his best).  Yes he’s a fantasy stud and yes he makes cuts, but he hasn’t made enough noise this season for us to pick him as our horse this week.  That said, if you can fit him in the mid tier, you could get a solid and reliable fantasy player with a sub-$10k price tag.  If you are going to run with Hoffman this week, here’s why you pick him:  His record on this course since 2011 is as follows: T11 – 2015, T11 – 2014, T2 – 2013, T13 – 2012, T2 – 2011.

• Driving Accuracy: 53rd
• Greens in Regulation: 178th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 86th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 56th

* Most Notable Stat:  Consecutive Cuts: 7th (9)

Brendan Steele (Golficity Odds 46/1 FPPG: 75.19 GPFP: 48.36 Salary: $8,500): A fantasy contender week in and week out Steele now returns to the spot where his only PGA TOUR win took place when this event first commenced back in 2011.  He followed that victory up a year later with a T4 and added a T8 in 2015.  Steele has exceptional power off of the tee and ranks currently 8th in the all-around.  He’s been a little inconsistent as of late, but this could be a breakthrough week for him.  If his ‘spotty’ putter compliments his power and GIR skills he’ll be right in the mix on Sunday.

• Driving Accuracy: 17th
• Greens in Regulation: 25th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 157th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 54th

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around: 8th

Chez Reavie (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 65.82 GPFP: 70.43 Salary: $7,700): In his last visit to Texas, Reavie notched a T7 and has been a fantasy contender ever since.  Overall Chez is not having bad season as evidenced by his twelve made cuts in fourteen events including five Top 25 and two Top 10s.  His stats are nothing to write home about but his game is trending in the right direction right now and he could do well against this “relatively” weak field at TPC San Antonio.

• Driving Accuracy: 134th
• Greens in Regulation: 77th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 142nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 18th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scrambling: 3rd

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

Aaron Baddeley (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 62.08GPFP: 49.66 Salary: $7,400): Baddeley has a pretty solid track record here being a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made with three Top 20 finishes.  In his last two visits to TPC San Antonio he finished in the Top 10 twice and so far this season he has four Top 10 finishes to his name.  He’s definitely progressing in the right direction and could use the VTO as a springboard into a strong Spring/Summer.

• Driving Accuracy: 97th
• Greens in Regulation: 174th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 117th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting: 9th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open

Jhonattan Vegas (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 64.18 GPFP: 58.41 Salary: $7,100): Although not really a household name Vegas has only three missed cuts in eleven events on the season and has quietly snuck into the Top 10 twice already this year.  Jhonattan’s booming drive is good for 21st on TOUR and get this, he ranks first in the field this week for GIR!  That combination alone is worth his low $7,100 price tag.  Also consider the fact that Vegas ranks 9th in Ball Striking and 3rd in GIR and you have a guy who looks excellent on paper for this week’s Valero Texas Open.

• Driving Accuracy: 21st
• Greens in Regulation: 3rd
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 69th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 44th

* Most Notable Stat:  GIR: 3rd

Please note: these are only sample lineup that we suggest based on our research. Feel free to weave in any players whom you feel may have a better week.

Sample DraftKings Roster with Kuch

Sample DraftKings Roster without Kuch

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

• Brandt Snedeker (Golficity Odds 16/1): MC
• Paul Casey (Golficity Odds 16/1): MC
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 32/1): T14 ($88,000)
• Graeme McDowell (Golficity Odds 40/1): MC
• Chez Reavie (Golficity Odds 66/1): T33 ($31,172)

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

• Scott Brown (Golficity Odds 70/1): T64 ($12,449)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

• Jim Herman (Golficity Odds 125/1): T51 ($14,159)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.39%” bar_text=”16 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.72%” bar_text=”35 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”31.81%” bar_text=”7 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”18.18%” bar_text=”4 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”71.43″ bar_text=”110 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Valero Texas Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram