Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2017 Safeway Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Safeway Open

2017 Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

The dust has barely settled on Justin Thomas’ FedExCup win – achieved partly thanks to Xander Schauffele’s outstanding win at the TOUR Championship – and already attention has turned to the wraparound season for 2017-18.

It’s amazing to rewind 12 months and think that JT was ‘just’ a one-time PGA TOUR event winner; a solid but unspectacular player who had missed out on selection for the Ryder Cup team. Now, a major champion and FedExCup winner, it just goes to show a year is a long time in professional golf.

And what about Schauffele, who at this point in 2016 was largely unknown beyond those who followed the Web.com Tour closely. Now, he’s a two-time PGA TOUR winner and, surely, somebody who we have to pencil in as a ‘future major champion.’

The Safeway Open is the traditional wraparound campaign curtain-raiser, and it’s an event that is typically sparsely attended by the great and the good of the game. That said, it’s a fantastic tournament for those DFS gamers and sports bettors willing to put in the hard yards of research!

A rollcall of winners that reads Brendan Steele, Emiliano Grillo, Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, and Bryce Molder clearly shows that the Safeway Open is a tournament where those ‘in the know’ can thrive.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results from the TOUR Championship

What a finish last week as six of our seven main picks finished the week T13 or better!  As you can see from our stats bellow, we finished the 2016-2017 season with 76% of our main picks making the cut and the winner picked basically every one in five events.

Our Sleeper Report lit it up a few times this year with long-shot winners picked (all coming off of 50/1 or greater Vegas odds), while our European Tour picks enjoyed more than seven winners on the season.

Hats off to another great fantasy season and the kick-off to the 2017-2018 schedule!

Xander Schauffele smiles and tips his cap to fans after his one…

Xander Schauffele smiles and tips his cap to fans after his one stroke victory on the 18th hole green during the final round of the TOUR Championship, the last event of the FedExCup Playoffs, at East… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

2017 Safeway Open Field

Just three of the combatants from the Presidents Cup are in Napa Valley, with Phil Mickelson joined by Adam Hadwin and Grillo, while Tony Finau and Webb Simpson join Hadwin in being the only participants in the TOUR Championship to tee it up this week.

Other notable names in the field include Zach Johnson, Bill Haas, Ryan Moore, and Kevin Na, while Brendan Steele will be looking to successfully defend his title.

Bae returns to the PGA TOUR after carrying out two year worth of military service in his native South Korea, while the likes of Maverick McNealy and Cameron Champ will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Cody Gribble – a Web.com Tour graduate who finished T8 here on his first full tour start 12 months ago.

Phil Mickelson of the U.S. Team and Adam Hadwin of Canada and the…

Phil Mickelson of the U.S. Team and Adam Hadwin of Canada and the International Team wear fan hats on the first tee during the Sunday singles matches at the Presidents Cup at Liberty National Golf… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

We’re heading to the North course at the Silverado resort this week; the now annual host venue since 2014.

Robert Trent-Jones was on design duty back in the 1960s, with an overhaul from Johnny Miller following in 2010 when he and an investment group purchased the resort.

It’s a 7,200 yard, Par 72 – the first in what seems like an eternity on tour – with four Par 5s to be attacked. The greens are Poa Annua and fairly slow on the stimp, but sloped in nature which acts as their main form of defence.

The fairways are tight-ish and there’s plenty of rough around, but with 12 of the 18 holes playing under par according to the scoring average charts in 2016, clearly this is a stretch that can be attacked. Each of the last five holes played under par – that’s one way to set up a thrilling finale – with Par 5s at 16 and 18 offering plenty of opportunity for late drama.

While length off the tee has not been a pre-requisite, these sloped greens are definitely better attacked with short iron or wedge in hand, so perhaps Total Driving is a key stat to follow in this week.

Chez Reavie tees off on the first hole during the final round of the…

Chez Reavie tees off on the first hole during the final round of the Safeway Open at the North Course of the Silverado Resort and Spa on October 16, 2016 in Napa, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Napa, California

The fairways and greens at Silverado will be nice and firm, make no mistake. A period of hot weather has made its way into Napa Valley for the past few weeks and is here to stay for the foreseeable future, too.

It’s red hot sunshine all the way, with temperatures ranging from 80 – 87 degrees and literally zero chance of rain (always a bold statement on the part of the weather forecasters!).

Wind speeds are set at around 5-7 mph, and so really these are perfect conditions for some low-scoring golf – although a premium on short approach shots into the green could be vital.

Last Year’s Results from the Safeway Open

Remember that easy stretch we mentioned at Silverado through holes 16-18? Well, it certainly paved the way for Brendan Steele 12 months ago as he birdied them all on the Sunday to claim a one-shot victory over Patton Kizzire in second.

Steele held the 54-hole lead in 2015 and failed to cash in, so he will have been delighted to overcome the four-shot deficit he faced 12 months ago.

Scott Piercy opened up with a round of 62 – the best of the tournament – to lay the foundations for a T3 finish, while Paul Casey and Kevin Na couldn’t quite capitalise on their fine FedExCup form by finishing T3 and solo seventh respectively.

The top ten was rounded out by the likes of Phil Mickelson, Justin Thomas and Martin Laird.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Safeway Open this Week

The wraparound season begins in earnest here, and all of the DFS platforms have cranked open their crates to come up with an eclectic, if mostly big riches free, set of contests.

Here’s the pick of the bunch:

• DraftKings PGA $230k Dogleg: The big fish for players on a small-medium budget this week, this $33 entry offers a guaranteed $25k to the winner and the first 1000 players home double their money at the very least.
• DraftKings PGA $100k Fore: If you need to rebuild your bankroll after a heavy summer of DFS golf, then for just $4 buy-in you get a shot at the top prize of $5k – with the top 50 bagging a minimum of $100.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Safeway Open

At this time of year, it’s worth looking at the kinds of players who perform well, and perhaps find reasons why. This is a weak field event with many in the field not picking up a club in anger since prior to the FedExCup playoffs, so what kind of talent tends to thrive during the wraparound.

Here’s the top five from last year’s Safeway Open, and their journey to Napa Valley:

1st – Brendan Steele: The champion had clearly carried over his form from the end of the 2016 season proper; finishing T12 at the PGA Championship and T13 at the BMW Championship. This was his second PGA TOUR win (with a five-year gap to his previous), while 2015 champ Emiliano Grillo was picking up his maiden title, so perhaps we don’t need to discount those with an empty trophy cabinet thus far.

2nd – Patton Kizzire: A decent first half to the 2016 campaign was enough to see Kizzire into the top 125 of the FedExCup standings, although he missed the cut in both his playoff appearances. He is the sheer definition of an outlier – we have no idea how he finished second!

T3 – Paul Casey: A classy operator who finished the FedExCup with returns of 2-2-4. Needless to say, his form carried over.

T3 – Scott Piercy: He showed little form in the latter half of 2016, but Piercy’s second at the US Open was a sign of how well he was striking the ball.

T3 – Michael Kim: We have no idea how Kim made the top five at Silverado given he had displayed no form at all up to that point. Perhaps an angle – albeit a possible, rather than probable one – is his college years at University of California-Berkeley, which may explain his familiarity with the layout.

A thing we can add about Steele in particular is what a good player he is, and perhaps he’s somebody that has failed to live up to their enormous potential thus far. Maybe that’s an angle for DFS gamers to explore – the precocious talent cashing in on a weak field. There are plenty of names that spring to mind on that front…

Steele ranked T5 for Driving Accuracy, T23 for Driving Distance, T21 for GIR, and T8 for Putting, which suggests a quality all-round week will be required. Clearly, with that ranking, he hit plenty of fairways, and ranking 13th for SG: Tee-to-Green that comes as no surprise.

Putting on Poa Annua is a skill in itself with most in the field getting little exposure of the surface outside of the California swing, so perhaps takin a look at relevant stats from the Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach, and the Genesis Open, where this grass is used, is wise.

Four of the top six finishers here 12 month ago – Kizzire, Piercy, Casey and Johnson Wagner – were all in the top four after round one, and all had morning tee times. A fast start is clearly very important at Silverado.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Safeway Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Safeway Open

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Tony Finau (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 94.65 Salary: $11,500)

We’ve long been touting Finau as a regular PGA TOUR winner, and after bagging top-10s in the final two FedExCup events surely a lower-class event with four Par 5s plays perfectly into his hands?

The 28-year-old arrives in Napa after finishing T7 at both the BMW and TOUR Championships, and while his statistical make-up may terrify some – 136th on tour for Driving Accuracy, -.333 strokes gained putting – Finau still manages to find a way to make it work for him. A top-10 at East Lake, with its tight fairways and slick greens, is testament to that.

Finau has already proven his mettle in weak-field events by winning the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 as well as T3 in the CVS Health Charity Classic and T5 in the Canadian Open last term, and so there’s no reason why he can’t add another title to his resumé here.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
• Total Driving – 34th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Kevin Na (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 46.39 Salary: $9,400)

The South Korean saved some of his best form for last season to the very end, and that momentum is very handy heading into an event he has enjoyed in recent years.

Na was T4 at the Wyndham Championship and T6 at the Dell Technologies, and while a flaccid showing at the BMW meant he missed out on the FedExCup curtain call, there are still enough positive signs here to get pumped about a guy who has finished T2 and T7 on his last two trips to Napa.

The 34-year-old has ranked 12th and 2nd for SG: Tee to Green at Silverado on his last two visits, and with recent form in hand another strong showing is likely.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 150-175 Yards – 3rd
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 42nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Bud Cauley (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 69.63 Salary: $8,400)

Given his excellent tee-to-green game (he ranked 25th on tour in 2017 for SG: T2G), the logic is that if Cauley’s putter gets hot for three or four days straight he will win a PGA TOUR title before much longer.

And why not a weak field affair like this. The 27-year-old may have only finished T50 here on debut 12 months ago but he actually ranked tenth for SG: Tee-to-Green; a sure sign that he fell to pieces on the dancefloor once again.

But there’s so much to like about his game – Cauley ranked ninth for SG: Approach, 38th for GIR, 27th for Par 4 Scoring Average, and 45th for Par 5 Performance last term – it is not a giant leap of faith to suggest that he can do the business this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 9th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 25th
• Greens in Regulation – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Brandon Hagy (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.5, GPFP: 62.18 Salary: $7,300)

At last year’s Safeway Open, Michael Kim bagged himself a T3 finish without really showing any form before or after the event.

It was a real headscratcher, and the only thing we could put it down to was his college education at the University of California-Berkeley, which is roughly an hour from Napa Valley. That meant that Kim could scout the course with ease and had probably played it a bunch of times.

Brandon Hagy is also a Berkeley alumnus, and his game looks tailor-made to go well at Silverado. He’s long off the tee, and assuming he can find plenty of fairways that should give him plenty of wedges into these sloping greens – it’s a huge advantage to and soft on what are likely to be scorched surfaces under this hot Californian sun.

Hagy ranked 49th for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 7th for Par 5 BOBL last season, so he looks a fantastic DFS play this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average – 7th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 49th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 59th

Low-Tier Pick:

Rory Sabbatini (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 45.07 Salary: $7,000)

The last three months of the season were outstanding for Rory Sabbatini, who really was approaching his best form by the end of the campaign.

Five top-25s in seven starts was a handy way to finish, and he crashed into the top 125 of the FedExCup standings based on that alone. The standout was clearly the T4 at the Wyndham Championship.

It’s easy to forget that the South African is a six-time PGA TOUR winner with a whopping 70 top-10s to his name, and make no mistake he will hit plenty of fairways this week and tackle the Par 5s with gusto.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 125-150 Yards – 1st
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 12th
• Total Driving – 39th

Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Keith Mitchell (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 69.5, GPFP: 65.20 Salary: $7,600)

There are a whole bunch of Web.com Tour guys in the field here, and as we saw in 2016 it should be no surprise if some of them come to the party at Silverado.

Of those most likely to, Keith Mitchell has to be near the top of the list – and given that he’s not a big name we’d expect his ownership to be low this week.

He’s been tearing up the Web.com Tour with four top-10 finishes in his last six starts, plus a T11, ad let’s not forget that in his sole start to date on the PGA TOUR Mitchell finished T11 at the Valspar Championship, so he’s not fazed by the step up in class.

Key Stats (Web.com):

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• Total Driving – 11th
• Ball Striking – 24th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Safeway Open

Derek Fathauer (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 71.6, GPFP: 36.82 Salary: $6,700)

There’s every chance that Fathauer could fall flat on his face this week, but we’re happy enough to support a guy with course form of 15-MC-12 at this bargain basement price.

His T6 finish at the Barracuda Championship saw him gatecrash the FedExCup top 125, which will have done his confidence the world of good, and he seems to love the wraparound season too with T3 at the CIMB Classic last year backed by T4 at the OHL Classic 12 months previously.

He is, despite his very ordinary stats, occasionally something of a birdie-making machine, ranking 61st on tour for Birdie Average – not bad for a player ranked 288 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 38th
• Birdie Average: 61st
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders: 75th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.36%” bar_text=”24 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.65%” bar_text=”65 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”41.15%” bar_text=”118 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”19.51%” bar_text=”8 out of 41 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”14.63%” bar_text=”6 out of 41 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.96″ bar_text=”218 out of 287 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Safeway Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram