Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2018 Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2018 Farmers insurance Open

2018 Farmers insurance Open Fantasy Preview

There must just be something about the West Coast of America that suits Jon Rahm down to a tee.

Almost a year to the day since opening his PGA TOUR account at Torrey Pines, Rahm backed up winning his second title in California at the CareerBuilder Challenge just last week.

The Spaniard needed 22 holes on Sunday to see off Andrew Landry, who kept chipping away at the now world number two across four playoff holes before eventually succumbing to a 12-foot birdie putt.

It was a surprise win, in some respects, as we weren’t overly convinced that the pro-am format would suit Rahm, a typically passionate Spaniard whose blood always seems close to boiling over whenever he things don’t quite pan out as he might want them to.

But he showed tremendous character across the four days, and his formline now reads an ominous 1-2-1 after he picked up victory at the DP World Tour Championship in November.

Rahm will be looking to defend his Farmers Insurance Open title at Torrey Pines this week, the site of his emotional maiden victory, although a stellar field will be hoping to prevent him from doing just that.

Tiger Woods of the United States lines up a putt on the second green…

Tiger Woods of the United States lines up a putt on the second green during the final round of the Hero World Challenge at Albany, Bahamas on December 3, 2017 in Nassau, Bahamas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the CareerBuilder Challenge

Our decision to fade John Rahm last week bit us pretty badly, and we’ll be the first to admit when we have a bad week.

Our best finisher was the T6 by Kevin Chappell as well as the T6 from Scott Piercy which came off our Tuesday Sleeper Report.

Despite a sub-par performance at the CareerBuilder, we’re eager to come back strong this week to maintain our 83% ‘made-cut’ percentage as well as our 47% Top 25 finish percentage so far over the last ten events.

Jon Rahm of Spain reacts after an eagle on the 16th hole during the…

Jon Rahm of Spain reacts after an eagle on the 16th hole during the first round of the World Golf Championships – Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club South Course on August 3, 2017 in… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Across the pond in Abu Dhabi, we saw a stronger performance from our picks, with Ross Fisher notching a 2nd place finish and our top pick DJ finishing T9.

2018 Farmers Insurance Open Field

Four of the top-ten in the world rankings, a couple of major winners, last year’s Rookie of the Year and one of the greatest of all time….those are the makings of a rather strong field!

Rahm joins Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler and the in-form Justin Rose as the headline-makers in the field, although surely most of the column inches will be dedicated to one Tiger Woods, who continues his slowly-does-it return from injury at a venue at which he has won eight times, including seven Farmers titles and his last major: the US Open in 2008.

Jason Day will be looking to bounce back from his disappointment at his home Australian PGA Championship in December, and he will join fellow major champion and San Diegan Phil Mickelson at Torrey Pines, who will tee up alongside a couple of other local boys in Charley Hoffman and PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year 2017, Xander Schauffele.

And that’s not forgetting to mention the likes of Marc Leishman, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed and Alex Noren, among many more!

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan and Rickie Fowler of United States talk at…

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan and Rickie Fowler of United States talk at the 18th tee during the first round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua Golf Club on January 4,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

Part of the reason for such an elite field assembling in San Diego is the chance to play at Torrey Pines’ pair of stunning courses, which truly are among the finest on the PGA TOUR’s rotation. The captivating clifftop location overlooks the Pacific Ocean, and so its no surprise that this is one of the most well-attended events on the circuit.

There are two courses on rotation, with the North course hosting half the field on Thursday and Friday alongside the South, before the cut is made at the halfway point and the final 36 holes are played out on the South stretch.

The North track measures 7,258 yards for its Par 72 after a 2016 overhaul from Tom Weiskopf added 200 yards to its tally. Another of his changes was to increase the size of the Bentgrass greens to make them more receptive, which has generally eased the difficulty of the layout, which plays at roughly three shots easier than the South on average.

About that South Course. This is a true brute at 7,698 yards with tough-to-find fairways, but it is a devil that rewards the finer detail: former winners here include noted tee-to-green merchants Brandt Snedeker, Scott Stallings and Nick Watney, so hitting long and straight is key. The greens are Poa Annua, and so players who thrive on this rare test should be considered.

The South Course is certainly up there with the toughest tracks on Tour, with twelve of the holes playing comfortably over par last year. That said, each of the four Par 5s offers a glorious birdie opportunity if the fairway is found off the tee.

Nick Taylor of Canada plays his shot out of the bunker on the fifth…

Nick Taylor of Canada plays his shot out of the bunker on the fifth hole during the third round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines South on January 28, 2017 in San Diego, California. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

Those that turned out at La Quinta last week will already have a feel for the weather in San Diego, which is consistent with that of the rest of California of late.

So it’s sunny and bright without being especially warm (62 to 71 degrees), and the key factor once again looks likely to be the wind.

It got up at times on Friday and Saturday last week, and Thursday looks set to be the breeziest this time around: ranging from 5 mph at 9am to 14 mph at 3pm. With the rest of the week playing out in fairly benign conditions, will the early starters on Thursday have the edge?

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

Jon Rahm was three shots adrift of the leaders heading into the final round, but a majestic 65 – the joint-lowest round of the week – propelled him to the top of the leaderboard

Patrick Rodgers and Brandt Snedeker, a two-time Farmers champion, held the 54-hole lead at -9 with Tony Finau and C.T. Pan just a single stroke adrift.

The overnight leaders couldn’t break par as they slipped down the standings, with Rahm’s final round of 65 taking him to -13 ahead of Pan and the fast-finishing Charles Howell III.

Five players finished in a tie for T4: Rodgers, Finau, Justin Rose, Pat Perez and Keegan Bradley.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGEOHR1wsCY[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

With the return of Tiger Woods and the sense that Torrey Pines is one of the most enjoyable courses to watch golf at, the DFS sites have gone pretty big with their slates this week. As far as DraftKings is concerned, they are throwing plenty of cash at it!

• PGA $500k Drive the Green: There can’t be many more enjoyable ways to win $100k this week, not that are legal anyway. The ‘big one’ this week features a half-million prize pool for just a $4 entry.
• PGA $300k Club Pro: An alternative option to the Drive the Green contest is this Club Pro, with a still handsome $50k top prize. This 1,001 entry event serves up prizes of $1k minimum for the first 40 teams home.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Farmers Insurance Open

Go long and straight off the tee, hit your approach close and make plenty of sub 10ft putts; that seems to be the overriding recipe for success at Torrey Pines.

Just 12 months ago Rahm ranked second for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and ninth for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and that gives a clear indication of what it takes to do well here. Remember, the South Course, where 75% of the action will unfold, is a tough course with difficult-to-hit fairways and greens. As such, players in form from tee-to-green are absolutely imperative this week.

The identities of some of the players that featured in the top-ten last year are indicative: Charles Howell III, Keegan Bradley, Pat Perez, Brian Harman, Brandt Snedeker, Robert Streb….these are all guys famed for keeping the ball in play, rather than belting it to the moon.

Rahm’s stats from 12 months ago confirm the fact: he ranked 16th for Driving Distance but at an average of 296 yards, which is typically a lot shorter than we’d expect. The fact the Spaniard also ranked 19th for Driving Accuracy, hitting 60% of fairways, confirmed that he placed a premium on finding the short grass.

In such a difficult test it will come as no surprise to learn that playing the Par 5s well is key. There are four of them on the South Course, and Rahm went through the dozen in -9, eagling the thirteenth (twice) and the eighteenth. The winner this week will make up the bulk of their total on the longer holes, that’s for certain.

Much of the golf will be played on Poa Annua putting surfaces too, which is a fairly rare treat for the players these days. If you’re looking to deep dive into some relevant stats, the three courses of the AT&T Pebble Beach and Riviera (home to the Genesis Open) are Poa Annua and also located in California.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

*Please note that some players may not have registered enough events this early into the 2017-2018 season to have an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Jon Rahm (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 95.1, GPFP: 104.68 Salary: $11,800)

Yep, we’re doing it. The Spaniard was so good last week that we simply have to have him on board this week.

We looked at Justin Rose, who is bang in form, but his travel from the Middle East puts him at a disadvantage to Rahm, who can simply hang out in Cali and enjoy his surroundings.

Rahm’s win at the CareerBuilder Challenge was indebted to a round of 62 at La Quinta, the easiest of the trio of courses. But he maintained his form throughout the weekend too, and a closing 67 at the Stadium Course is an indication that he can turn his hand to grinding as well as birdie-fests.

The 23-year-old’s formline reads 1-2-1, which suggests he isn’t in any danger of becoming one of those event winners that enjoys some ‘downtime’ between big performances. Indeed, young and hungry as he is, Rahm is the ideal candidate to go back-to-back.

With Rose’s thousand-mile round trip, Hideki Matsuyama’s confidence problems and Rickie Fowler’s awful form at Torrey Pines in recent years, Rahm is by far and away the most likely winner this week – a label that doesn’t seem to bother him if last week’s victory is anything to go by.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 16th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Ollie Schneiderjans (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 76.13 Salary: $8,500)

If pushed to name a bunch of players likely to break their PGA TOUR title duck in 2018, we suspect that Ollie Schneiderjans would feature rather heavily on any such listings.

The 24-year-old notched his first top-10 at Torrey Pines 12 months ago, aided by some phenomenal ball-striking that saw him rank fifth for SG: Tee-to-Green.

Schneiderjans has finished inside the top-25 in four of his last five PGA TOUR starts, with three of those being top-20s, and that is a continuation of the consistency last season which saw him deliver five top-10 returns.

His game just looks tailormade for Torrey Pines, with that laser-straight hitting off the tee (he ranks fourth for Total Driving) and imaginative iron play, and with top-10s here and at Riviera a theme of comfortability on Poa Annua emerges.

Schneiderjans will win this season, we’re confident of that, and this week looks as likely as any given his suitability for the venue.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 4th
• SG: Tee to Green – 36th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 76.5, GPFP: 91.04 Salary: $7,700)

It’s been a solid start to 2018 for Jhonattan Vegas, who backed up his T7 at the Tournament of Champions with T11 at the CareerBuilder just last week.

The Venezuelan is what we might describe as a ‘steady Eddie’ type player: rock solid off the tee and with a decent iron/wedge game. That might sound slightly patronizing, but it’s a formula that has enabled Vegas to establish himself in the world’s top 50 players. It is, looking at last year’s leaderboard in this event, a strategy that pays dividends at Torrey Pines.

He’s six-for-seven around this stretch, with a trio of top-20 finishes, and with seventeen top-10s to his name on the PGA TOUR we recognize a player that isn’t afraid to get in among it.

Quickly referring back to last week, one thing that really did stand out about Vegas’ performance was that he went around the Stadium Course in a combined -6 through 36 holes; that is a sterling effort around a treacherous layout, and confirms how well he is playing at present.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 19th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 29th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 82.8, GPFP: 66.24 Salary: $7,400)

It’s a surprise to see Francesco Molinari so under-valued in an event where ball-striking is more of a factor than normal.

There are a few excellent options around this price point – Kyle Stanley and Adam Hadwin spring to mind, but we’re willing to give the nod to Molinari given that, on his day, he has his golf ball on a rope.

It’s been a while since the Italian has found himself on US soil, but two eye-catching performances towards the tail-end of last season – T2 at the PGA Championship, T12 at the BMW Championship – are still fresh in the memory.

You certainly couldn’t accuse a player that recorded top-10 finishes in THE PLAYERS Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus T14 at Torrey Pines, of being afraid to grind it out, and as a consequence we expect Molinari to far outweigh his meager salary here.

Key Stats (2017):

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 4th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd

Low-Tier Pick:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 55.90 Salary: $7,200)

At a course that plays as difficultly as Torrey Pines, we’re happy enough to put our chips down on a player that has gone five-from-seven here.

More than that, Keegan Bradley has finished inside the top-25 on four occasions here, with his best effort being a T4 return 12 months ago.

Is anybody surprised? This Torrey Pines layout is perfect for his long, straight tee game, and while he can’t putt for toffee it seems as if Poa Annua suits him more than any other surface.

And if this is your sort of thing then we can even play the ‘nappy factor’ card: Bradley welcomed son Logan into the world in late November.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 4th
• SG: Approach – 7th
• SG: Tee to Green – 13th

Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Alex Noren (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71, GPFP: 56.48 Salary: $7,800)

Given that he only very rarely makes PGA TOUR appearances, Alex Noren could be the archetypal sleeper pick this week.

The reason for that is that he is a far better player than his salary here implies: yes, it’s a lower level, but nine wins on the European Tour is testament to his ability and courage under pressure.

And besides, the Swede can mix it in quality company: he finished T6 at the British Open and tenth at THE PLAYERS Championship, after all.

One of the reasons he really appeals this week is that he is a former winner of the Nedbank Challenge, a grueling European Tour event played at a beastly Gary Player creation in South Africa. If you can win there, there’s no other course that can faze you.

Key Stats (European Tour 2017):

• Average Driving Distance – 293 yards
• Driving Accuracy – 58%
• Greens in Regulation – 65%

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open

Brandon Harkins (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 69.5, GPFP: 75.70 Salary: $7,200)

At the start of every PGA TOUR season there is a whole bunch of new guys coming up from the Web.com Tour to try and get to know, and the early going this year has been dominated by the performances of Austin Cook, among others.

One name that has slipped under the radar, by and large, is Brandon Harkins, who has made the cut in six of his seven starts at elite level. But better than that, he has bagged five top-25 returns and contended at both the OHL Classic and CareerBuilder before falling away.

Californian by birth, Harkins stayed on the West Coast throughout his college years, and surely it is no coincidence he notched a top-10 finish last week to go with his second place in August’s Ellie May Classic on the Web.com Tour, played at Hayward in Cali.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee to Green: 86th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 30th
• SG: Putting: 37th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

This Week’s Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”5.71%” bar_text=”4 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”22.85%” bar_text=”16 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”47.14%” bar_text=”33 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”1 out of 10 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”2 out of 10 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”82.87%” bar_text=”58 out of 70 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram