Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – Dell Technologies Championship 2017
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Dell Technologies Championship
The Dell Technologies 2017 Fantasy Preview
If every event in the FedExCup is going to be as exciting as The Northern Trust then we are in for a treat. Arguably the two best golfers on the planet right now in Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth did battle down the final straight at Glen Oaks, and as Spieth gamely pointed out ‘I didn’t lose the tournament. He won it.’
Basically, DJ was so good on Sunday that he was destined to lift the trophy, despite the three-shot lead that the British Open champion took into the final 18. Spieth also led by five with just 13 holes to play, so there will naturally be further fuel added to the ‘bottler’ tag.
It was an ominous sign that Johnson is back to his best, while readers will forgive us a moment to wallow. We made Spieth our top tier pick for the tournament, and but for that playoff defeat we’d be celebrating a double-winner alongside our Made in Denmark selection Julian Suri – a double which would have paid out a rather handsome 400/1 with the sportsbooks.
There is plenty to play for at the Dell Technologies Championship, with ranking points up for grabs ahead of the BMW Championship (and then TOUR Championship) in the weeks to come. Spieth is up to number two as he seeks to become only the second player to win two FedExCups, while DJ climbs to first.
There are a couple of guys vying for Presidents Cup selection too, including Si-Woo Kim and Jhonattan Vegas on the International side and Kevin Chappell and Charley Hoffman on Team USA.
So there’s plenty for the final 100 to duke it out for at TPC Boston, and don’t forget it’s Labor Day weekend, so the tournament runs from Friday-Monday.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Dell Technologies Championship
Our horse pick last week at the NTO was Jordan Spieth; a guy we heavily favored on all of our rosters and needless to say we’re not upset about the result. Spieth ended up finishing 2nd and banked 113.5 fantasy points.
One of our sample lineups (below) held a 2nd place (Spieth), T10 (Kuchar), and T17 (Hoffman and Schauffele) despite missing the cut with Ollie.
We like this big hitting American, and sense that he – like booming drive compatriots Jordan Smith and Ryan Fox – is ready to break through with a big performance any time soon.
He’s won on the Challenge Tour this term and finished second in a European Tour event (Open de Portugal), and he actually finished T11 in the Challenge Tour’s Made in Denmark event back in June. His best performance since then came in his last outing: T16 in the Porsche European Open.
Huge off the tee, Suri is down to under 30.00 putts per round this season, and so if he gets on one of his hot streaks who knows what he is capable of in Denmark.
Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth of the United States shake hands…
Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth of the United States shake hands after putting on the 18th green during the final round of The Northern Trust at Glen Oaks Club on August 27, 2017 in Westbury, New… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The Dell Technologies 2017 Field
The final 100 are raring to go in New England, and that includes Bubba Watson after his fine performance in NY. He jumped a whopping 41 places in the standings after finishing T10 at Glen Oaks, and he – along with David Lingmerth and Harold Varner III – gate-crashed the top 100 on the back of their fine showings.
The trio to miss out as a consequence are Byeong Hun An, Robert Garrigus, and Seung-Yul Noh, while the likes of Jimmy Walker, Luke Donald and Harris English also miss out.
The top 70 move forwards to the BMW Championship, so Russell Knox (65), Grayson Murray (70), Bubba (72), and Adam Scott (73) are all sweating on their places.
The only two absentees from the 100 look likely to be Brandt Snedeker and Scott Piercy, who are both injured. Adam Scott’s partner gave birth last week, but the Aussie is expected to take his place in Massachusetts.
This Week’s Course Preview
TPC Boston is situated in the New England countryside, part way between Boston and Rhode Island. It was designed initially by Arnold Palmer in 2002 before a redesign from Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon in 2007, which actually reduced the course yardage by some 200 yards.
It’s a scoreable course, all things considered, with winning marks of -15 here the last three years. TPC Boston measures around 7,300 yards for its Par 71, and the key defense are the small, fast Bentgrass greens, which are always highly praised and run at about 12 on the stimp.
Fairways are easier to hit but the long fescue rough can be problematic, so tee work is of relative importance, and the biggest challenge for the players are the quick greens. Five of the top ten in 2016 ranked inside the top eight for Strokes Gained: Putting, and that in itself is telling.
The TPC Boston website includes a player quotes section, and here’s what Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker had to say about the stretch.
Mickelson: “This is one of my favorite courses we play on Tour. I think it’s one of the best courses we play on Tour. It’s got a lot of character and definition, but more than that it’s got a great mixture of holes, from long par-5s to reachable par-5s to drivable par-4s to really long par-4s, the fescue grass, the rough.
“It’s just a wonderful way to play the game where you have such a great mixture of every club in your bag. You have birdie opportunities, you have tough pars as opposed to some courses nowadays where it’s just hard, hard, hard.
“Hard is hard, but it’s not great, it’s not fun. But this golf course is a great golf course, and it’s a fun golf course to play.”
Steve Stricker: “I enjoy coming here to Boston… I enjoy this course. I really like what they’ve done here the last few years, Brad Faxon and (architect Gil Hanse) in the redesign of it all.
“I really like it…the condition of the course is very good. It’s a fun course … I think it’s a good test. It’s one of those if you’re playing well, you can shoot a good number.”
Weather Forecast for Norton, Massachusetts
It’s a bit of a mixed bag weather-wise in Massachusetts this week, but the good news is that the scattered showers expected on Wednesday will clear in time for Friday morning’s start.
Friday and Saturday are almost the perfect days for playing golf. There’s zero chance of rain (according to the forecast), the winds speeds of 6-10mph are manageable and the temperature is around 72 degrees, so perfectly agreeable.
At this early stage, bits and pieces of rain are forecast for Sunday morning, and so that could make for a very entertaining ‘moving day’ if the fast greens are slowed. Expect some very low numbers on Sunday.
Monday will, like Friday and Saturday, offer some exceptional conditions in which the players can really thrive.
Last Year’s Results from the Dell Technologies Championship
A subsequent rebrand has seen the Deutsche Bank Championship, as it was known 12 months ago, change its name to the Dell Technologies Championship, but there’s no doubting who the reigning champion is.
Rory McIlroy posted a fantastic final round of 65 to take the honors on -15 from Paul Casey (-13) and Jimmy Walker (-12). But it could have been so different given that the Irishman’s opening round of 71 put him six shots adrift of first round leaders James Hahn and Ryan Moore. But top-flight golf, as we know, is a question of how you finish; not how you start.
Other notable performances 12 months ago came from Louis Oosthuizen and Kevin Chappell, who posted the joint lowest round of the week at 64, while rounding the overall top five were Adam Scott (-11), and a three-way tie for fifth between Hahn, Fabian Gomez and Patrick Reed.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Dell Technologies Championship this Week
So we’re edging closer to the end of the 2017 PGA TOUR campaign, so the DFS platforms have just a few events left to flex their muscle. There’s lots of prize money around this week, so let’s see where the pick of the DraftKings contests lies:
- PGA $650k Dogleg: A whopping $100,000 bounty is on offer here, with the to-25 all trousering a cool $1000 for a mere $33 entry.
- PGA $225k Fore: There’s a top prize of $12,500 up for grabs in this one, and just $4 entry guarantees a shot at the total kitty of $225k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Dell Technologies Championship
Perhaps the famed TPC Boston rough was a tad easier last year, as Rory McIlroy ranked first for Driving Distance but only 41st (out of 100, remember) for Accuracy. His Scrambling must have been on point, and that’s been a theme for the past five years with each winner raking top-ten for that metric.
Unusually for him, McIlroy ranked first for all of the putting stats, and while a lowly T18 for Greens in Regulation might seem a low rank for a champion, he still found nearly three-quarters of all greens (73.61%).
This is a FedExCup event so you’d expect a quality winner: McIlroy (x2), Rickie Fowler, and Henrik Stenson are the last four champions here alongside Chris Kirk, who on paper at least is something of an anomaly in this company.
Form is certainly key, with Kirk winning earlier in 2014 prior to his victory here, Fowler had won twice in his champion season and Stenson had recorded top-fives in both the British Open and PGA Championship.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Dell Technologies Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Dell Technologies Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jason Day (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 79.40 Salary: $9,500)
Jason Day is just kind of bubbling under the surface at present, and you sense that he’s not far from a winning performance.
His T27 at the British Open was the catalyst, which he has followed with a T24 at the high-quality WGC Bridgestone, a T9 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at the Northern Trust. Those numbers are heading in one pleasing direction.
We know that the Aussie is a prolific winner, and it has been a while since he has entered the winner’s circle, so there will be real determination on Day’s part to get the job done this week.
His record at TPC Boston is outstanding, with his nine starts yielding seven top-20s of which three became top-10s. His Strokes Gained numbers were really nice last week as well, so it appears as if the stars are aligning for Jason Day.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 9th
- Putting Average – 17th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 33rd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Paul Casey (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 71.4, GPFP: 79.40 Salary: $8,900)
‘He doesn’t win enough!’, that’s what the detractors will say. And they’re right, given Casey’s ability he doesn’t win enough, but lord knows how he didn’t triumph here 12 months ago.
Three rounds of 66 propelled the Englishman to the top of the leaderboard, and that gave him a huge lead heading into Sunday.
He couldn’t convert – finishing two shots behind fellow Brit McIlroy, and that will have hurt Casey no end.
So there might be a sense of redemption in his work this week. He heads to Massachusetts in great form – his last ten starts have yielded eight top-20s, with five of those being top-10. That’s exceptional.
Casey ranked fifth for SG: Tee-to-Green at the Northern Trust, and that’s an example of how well he is striking the ball at present.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 3rd
- Par Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Kevin Chappell (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.6, GPFP: 71.41 Salary: $8,600)
To some extent, Chappell is in a direct battle with Charley Hoffman for the final spot on the US Presidents Cup team, and with the form he brings to the event Chappell should be feeling good about his chances.
He followed up his win at the Texas Open with some excellent golf, and in his last four starts he has done okay at the PGA Championship (T33), very well at the WGC Bridgestone (T13), and excellently at the Canadian Open (T8) and T6 at the Northern Trust last time out.
Chappell ranked top-20 at the Northern Trust for Strokes Gained from tee-to-green and putting, and his last four starts at TPC Boston have gone 8-12-50-22. What’s not to like?
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 28th
- SG: Approach-the-Green – 36th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 57.5, GPFP: 73.86 Salary: $7,600)
An excellent upswing in form continued for Reavie at The Northern Trust, with that T10 complimenting a run of form that reads 37-22-23-39-43-16-4.
Reavie is an excellent putter on his day, and ranking ninth for SG: Putting at Glen Oaks suggests his flat stick is hot right now. He’s a brilliant scrambler too, ranking 18th for the all-round Scrambling stat and 26th for Scrambling from the Rough.
We have only three visits from Reavie to TPC Boston to call upon: T63 in 2008, second in 2011, and MC in 2016. Let’s hope he’s feeling the ’11 vibe this week!
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 9th
- SG: Approach the Green – 40th
- SG: Putting – 49th
Low-Tier Pick:
Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 56.0, GPFP: 44.80 Salary: $7,000)
When you’re in form, golf can be the easiest game in the world. But when you’re not, being anywhere but out on the course seems like the best place to be.
Jhonattan Vegas was in the latter camp for much of 2017. At one point he’d missed nine cuts in eleven starts, and then two things happened: he switched back to his Mizuno irons, and teed up in the RBC Canadian Open – a tournament he won in 2016.
The rest, as they say, is history. He retained his title, finished inside the top-20 of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and recorded a T3 return in his last start at the Northern Trust. Even a missed cut at the PGA Championship isn’t enough to dampen the spirit of the Venezuelan.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach the Green – 28th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 28th
- SG: Tee to Green – 29th
Sleeper Pick for the Dell Technologies Championship
Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 74.6, GPFP: 59.69 Salary: $7,200)
If you look up the word ‘sleeper’ you’ll find a picture of Patrick Cantlay staring back at you!
Why? Because nobody really knows too much about him, however we have seen enough this term to know he’s far better than a $7,200 salary suggests.
He finished T10 at the Northern Trust last week, and that should be a clue for the DFS salary-makers. He’s made all ten cuts, finished in the top-25 of five of those and top-10 in three.
There’s no course form to speak of, which should keep Cantlay’s ownership low this week, but the upside is a hugely talented young player who can hang with the best. $7,200? Laughable.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – +.291
- SG: Tee to Green – +1.161
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 4.54
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Dell Technologies Championship
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.0, GPFP: 70.95 Salary: $6,900)
It was a case of what might have been for Schauffele at The Northern Trust. Rounds of 66 and 68 highlighted his potential, but followed by 71 and 72 meant that the young buck could only claim a T17 finish.
Still, that’s another piece of good form that dates back to the US Open, where his T5 finish was a real coming of age moment for the 23-year-old. Since then he’s made seven starts, missed one cut, finished inside the top-20 in five and, of course, bagged his first PGA TOUR title at the Greenbrier Classic.
Schauffele ranked 13th for SG: Tee-to-Green last week, and allied with his brilliant putting on Bentgrass he should go well again this week.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation: 23rd
- Birdie Average: 24th
- SG: Putting: 32nd
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
This Week’s Sample Lineup Using Day
Alternative Sample Lineup Without Day
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)
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