Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – FedEx St. Jude Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

The FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Preview

Is there anything more frustrating for a daily fantasy gamer then when a player you have been tracking and supporting for months finally gets their win when you’ve faded them for a week?

It was a wry smile from us that greeted Jason Dufner’s victory at the Memorial Tournament last time out; Duf had been among Golficity’s selections on a number of occasions in recent months, and on a week when we didn’t necessarily fancy him in a high class field he goes and gets the job done. Typical.

After an opening pair of 65s it looked as though he was cruising to victory, but as is often the case the Saturday jitters took hold and Dufner’s 77 looked to have ended his hopes.

But as those above him floundered – most notably Rickie Fowler, who threw away a two-shot lead on the back nine – Dufner got his skates on and roared back to the top of the leaderboard.

And there he stayed; three clear of Fowler and the fast finishing Anirban Lahiri.

Dufner’s victory saw him rise up the OWGR listing by a whopping 38 places – up to 27th from 65th – and with the US Open on the horizon clearly there are players playing for their places at Erin Hills this week.

The Duf-Man ensured the Memorial Tournament was one to remember for a variety of reasons; who can make the FedEx St Jude Classic a standout event for all the right reasons this week?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from The Memorial Tournament

Overall not a bad week despite us fading Duff-daddy. We caught a lot of flack from people who wondered why we chose Spieth as our horse-pick over DJ and Day. But Dustin simply didn’t have his A-game and he was sent packing before the weekend while Day ended up T15 and Spieth closed in with at T13 and 82 fantasy points.

Kuchar was another solid pick by our squad as he was in contention most of the week and finished T4 with 91 fantasy points. In total of our main seven picks, we had six make the cut (our alternate sleeper pick Hearn missed the cut) and our first sleeper Streelman put up a T13 against 160/1 odds.

Both of our “sample” DraftKings lineups last week contained Fowler as a bonus option and this lineup in particular banked 479.50 and placed 476th out of 11,700 players.

Our longest shot Sleeper last week from our Tuesday Sleeper Report was David Lingmerth who at 125/1 Vegas Odds fired an impressive 65 on day one to end up T15 for the week. Overall between our seven main picks and five sleeper picks, a total of ten out of twelve made the cut.

On the Euro Tour last week, our biggest contender for the Nordea Masters was Thorbjorn Olesen who notched a T4 finish and our Top Tier pick Alexander Noren finished T15.

The FedEx St. Jude Classic 2017 Field

A week shy of the second major of the year, it’s not a big surprise to see a relatively sparse field make the trip to Memphis, Tennessee this week.

Rickie Fowler is in town and he will be desperate to put last week’s disappointment behind him. He will be joined by the likes of Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, defending champion Daniel Berger, and Phil Mickelson, whose “family first” decision to sit out the US Open in favor of attending his daughter’s High School graduation is one that has caused a huge amount of debate online.

An eclectic array of former St Jude Classic winners, including Harris English, Fabian Gomez, Brian Gay, and Ben Crane, will also take part, as will a number of players on the cusp of automatic US Open qualification: Russell Henley, James Hahn, Soren Kjeldsen, Jim Furyk, and Steve Stricker could all still gatecrash the party with a big showing this week.

This Week’s Course Preview

As tests of pure ball-striking go, TPC Southwind is right up there with the best of them. This Bermudagrass set-up features the unholy duo of tight fairways and smaller-than-average greens, and to make matters worse these are super-fast as well; the difference between an uphill and a downhill putt is stark.

So accurate striking and course management is key, as is the ability to make the most of Par 4s: Southwind is a Par 70 measuring 7,244 yards with just two Par 5s to take advantage of.

Built on the site of an old dairy farm in Memphis, former US Open champions Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green joined forces with Ron Pritchard on design duties, although a 2004 redesign changed the nature of the track. Trees were removed and the Bentgrass was replaced by Bermuda for a test more in keeping with the hot conditions.

Even so, hazards remain – Southwind navigates its way past naturally-formed streams, lakes and ponds, and the rough is kept deliberately long in an attempt to simulate US Open style toughness.

Weather Forecast for Memphis, Tennessee

It seems as if conditions are similar in Memphis every year for the St Jude Classic: hot, dry and mostly wind-free.

That’s the theme that has been predicted by the early forecast once again, with the mercury set to hit a high of 90 degrees on Sunday.

Rain is set to be at a minimum with virtually no precipitation expected in the area at all this week, with wind speeds varying little throughout the day to ensure minimal draw bias.

All in all the players couldn’t wish for a fairer set of conditions….even if the heat will become rather stifling by the weekend.

Last Year’s Results from the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Four rounds in the sixties got Daniel Berger over the line 12 months ago, and while only one of his rounds was outstanding – Friday’s 64 – the young gun showed just how important consistency and bogey avoidance are around Southwind.

He had opened up a four-shot lead after just 36 holes, and while his 69-67 return on the weekend was bettered elsewhere Berger had already done enough damage to secure his maiden PGA TOUR title.

The likes of Shawn Stefani and Seung-Yul Noh had opened up with 65s before fading and promptly ending well to secure top-ten finishes, while Dustin Johnson’s Sunday 63 was by far the best round of the whole event to lift him into solo fifth place.

A trio of contrasting players – Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Steve Stricker – shared second place to show that there is perhaps more than one way to tame this TPC track.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the FedEx St. Jude Classic this Week

This is the last opportunity for DFS gamers to make some paper ahead of the US Open, where all of the main DFS sites are sure to push the boat out with their contests.

So this week we’re sliding a little down the risk scale – with the aim of accumulating some decent returns – in low entry contests at DraftKings.

• PGA $150k Fore: There’s just 20 entries allowed per player here, ensuring you won’t be muscled out of contention by cash-rich gamers. With a $150k prize pot, this is an excellent opportunity to enhance your bankroll.
• PGA $30k Scramble: For $20 entry you could take on your fellow gamers in a 1734 team contest which features a three-team max rule. A top prize of $3,000 could be yours for the taking.

Don’t overlook FanDuel this week either, as they have recently improved their format to a more traditional salary-cap set of contest offerings.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Reflecting back on Dan Berger’s winning effort here 12 months ago, we have to conclude that he did everything supremely well.

Raking first for Greens in Regulation, Berger was also outstanding off the tee (T5 for Distance, 11th for Accuracy) and putted well enough to get the job done (T15). At a course as difficult as Southwind, the youngster’s ability to hit the ball straight and true resulted in him gaining +1.14 strokes on the field off the tee, +2.02 on approach and a huge +3.40 from tee to green. Put all of that together and you have the recipe for an outstanding performance.

Minimising mistakes is obviously crucial to winning golf tournaments – that’s a given, but at certain courses where birdie chances are at a premium (remember, there’s only two Par 5s at Southwind) avoiding bogeys or worse is essential. A year ago Berger bogeyed just six of the 72 holes he played – or, in other words, just 8%. He only recorded birdie or better at 28%, and so that should speak volumes of the kind of player you should be drafting this week.

But there’s different ways to go about that. Steve Stricker and Brooks Koepka finished tied for second, yet their approach to the event off the tee was hugely different; Stricker ranked 64th for Distance and T2 for Accuracy, Koepka 10th for Distance and 33rd for Accuracy.

Basically you can keep the ball on a string or whack it miles and scramble well, but the key point is that finding lots of greens in regulation – and making putting easier with clever approach play that leaves uphill putts that are a lot slower against the grain – is the shortcut to success in Memphis.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 85.4, GPFP: 109.27 Salary: $12,000)

The great thing about professional golf is that even if you suffer a Sunday disappointment, you only have to wait a couple of days before you can get back in the saddle.

As a laidback personality, Rickie Fowler doesn’t strike us as somebody who will be too down on himself for not converting a Sunday afternoon lead into victory at the Memorial, and instead he will reflect upon another good performance heading into ‘major season.’

He’s finished inside the top 20 in seven of his last nine starts dating back to his win at the Honda Classic in February, and as if to exemplify how well he is playing he finished T2 at Muirfield Village at the weekend despite missing his three previous cuts there.

Nobody ranks higher for Total Driving, and Fowler also ranks inside the top 30 for Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Greens in Regulation, Par 4 Scoring Average, and Proximity to Hole. If anybody’s game is better suited to TPC Southwind, we’d like to her about it!

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th
• Bogey Avoidance – 13th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 72.0, GPFP: 74.88 Salary: $10,500)

Our appreciation of the Italian’s talents is well documented, and on tracks that suit his short and accurate play – like Southwind for instance – Molinari often outperforms his salary.

Second in his last start at the BMW PGA Championship in the UK, Molinari’s strokeplay form Stateside is very pleasing on the eye too: 14-20-7-33-22-24-6. That sixth-place finish came at THE PLAYERS Championship, which shows the Italian is more than comfortable on the Tour’s harder courses.

T34 in his only start here 12 months ago, the multiple European Tour winner has improved immensely since then and has clearly been inspired by his brother Edoardo, who himself won in Europe earlier this year.

Molinari ranks inside the top 40 for five of the six key metrics outlined in our presentation of Rickie Fowler’s chances above, and you sense his breakthrough on American soil is due.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green –2nd
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 5th
• Total Driving – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Kyle Stanley (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 69.3, GPFP: 89.33 Salary: $8,400)

A classic ball striker’s test requires a classic ball striker to make hay while the sun shines, and in the past few months Kyle Stanley has been absolutely dialed in with his irons.

Ranking second on Tour for GIR, third for Proximity, seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach, and ninth for Par 4 Performance, you suspect that Stanley is ideally suited to Southwind and while his previous form here doesn’t suggest as such – MC-62-MC in his last three trips – sometimes we just have to go with our gut instinct.

With three top-tens in his last five starts the form is certainly there to vastly improve upon his past record in the St. Jude Classic, and an examination of his best work this term – T4 at TPC Sawgrass, T6 at Muirfield Village, and T8 in Houston – suggests he is best suited to shorter tests of clean hitting.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 2nd
• Total Driving – 3rd
• Proximity to Hole – 3rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Chad Campbell (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 46.7, GPFP: 37.36 Salary: $7,600)

The perennial ‘sleeper’, when conditions suit Chad Campbell can deliver a fine performance for daily fantasy managers looking for a value option.

He’s seven-for-seven at Southwind, with a T8 in 2015 and a T3 in 2012 the obvious standouts, and once again he has had a fine season at shorter tracks where careful course management is key.

T6 at the CareerBuilder Challenge, T11 at Valspar, T13 at Byron Nelson, and T13 at the RSM Classic have all come in this term, and lest we forget those are all played at courses of below 7,400 yards.

So the upshot is get Campbell on a shorter track and he invariably comes up with the goods.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 5th
• Proximity to Hole – 13th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick:

Luke List (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 52.1, GPFP: 57.82 Salary: $6,600)

He’s missed five cuts from his last six starts – hardly music to the ears of DFS gamers – but when he’s on song there’s few birdie merchants as reliable as Luke List.

He ranks 13th on Tour for Birdie Average, and so if he can just make the weekend then we know we are in safe hands.

He is a monster off the tee – not the most accurate as a result, but he still finds 68% of greens which suggests his powers of redemption are excellent.

A T50 in his sole completion at Southwind hardly sends a shiver down the spine, but List really could be a power play in more way than one this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 36th

Sleeper Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

John Peterson (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 40.0, GPFP: 32.04 Salary: $7,300)

At a glance we would argue that Southwind is the perfect course for John Peterson, and his T19 finish in his last outing here in 2014 suggests that there is plenty of evidence to support our claim.

Not the longest by any means, Peterson can certainly keep the golf ball on a string when required, ranking 35th for Driving Accuracy, 41st for GIR, and 12th for Approaches from 175-200 yards. He even ranks 13th for Scrambling to highlight his redemptive powers.

Peterson is not a regular on the PGA TOUR and so his form is patchy as a result, but T12 at the Phoenix Open and T14 at the OHL Classic this season identifies what he is capable of on his day.

Born in Texas and schooled in Louisiana, the hot weather won’t faze Peterson this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards: 30th
• Greens in Regulation: 41st
• Total Driving: 52nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

D.A. Points (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 53.9, GPFP: 43.09 Salary: $6,500)

Make no mistake, the Puerto Rico Open is a second grade PGA TOUR event, but it still takes some winning regardless. D.A. Points’ return of -20 was an outstanding effort.

He very rarely features on leaderboards of top-tier Tour events because he is so short off the tee; an average drive of 272 yards speaks volumes.

But this is a three-time PGA TOUR winner who is super accurate off the tee, and he finished T18 on his last trip to TPC Southwind 12 months ago. That combination of factors makes him an outside bet for success this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 4th
• Greens in Regulation – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 33rd

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup I

Sample Lineup II (Without Fowler)

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”7.69%” bar_text=”14 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”20.33%” bar_text=”37 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.56%” bar_text=”72 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”19.23%” bar_text=”5 out of 26 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.69%” bar_text=”2 out of 26 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.82″ bar_text=”138 out of 182 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram