Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Greenbrier Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 Greenbrier Classic

The Greenbrier Classic Fantasy Preview

There’s an old saying in golf that ‘driving is for show, putting is for dough.’ Basically, what that means is that it doesn’t matter how long or accurate you are off the tee, if you can’t putt then you’re not going to lift trophies and cash checks.

But Kyle Stanley laid that theory to rest with a stunning display of ball striking to lift the Quicken Loans National trophy last time out. The 29-year-old gained a huge 3.40 strokes on the field from tee-to-green but actually lost 0.28 of those on the greens, and it actually didn’t matter too much as he saw off the challenge of Charles Howell III in a playoff to take down the second PGA TOUR win of his career and his first in more than five years.

The key takeaway points for DFS gamers? Classic ball-strikers are the way to go in these Par 70 events, and that those whose form is bubbling up in the medium term, without necessarily challenging for honors, must not be ignored in your draft.

This week sees the welcome return to the schedule of the Greenbrier Classic, lost in 2016 to extreme flooding that battered the course and caused untold damage to nearby properties. Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, who both own holiday homes in the area, helped out those most affected.

This will be the first time that Lefty tees up since his shock split from long-standing caddie Bones, and with his brother Tim on the bag it remains to be seen whether he can kick on and ensure this year’s Greenbrier is the springboard from which he get in the zone ahead of another British Open tilt.

All in all, four places at that Open are available to high finishers here, and while a field slightly lacking on star quality has gathered there is still plenty to be played for.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from the Quicken Loans National

Last week our top three picks were Fowler-Haas-Lee. Fowler’s slow start hurt him (and us) this week but he rallied hard on Sunday with a career-high 9 birdies in the final round to finish T3 and bank 88.50 fantasy points.

Needless to say it was an odd week and the fantasy favorites were eaten alive by TPC Potomac; truth be told, it wasn’t pretty to watch.

Haas ended up with a T13 finish (66.5 FP) while Danny Lee finished T22 with 64 fantasy points.

Overall, this wasn’t an event to jump and down over – but six of our seven main picks made the cut and hopefully some of you mixed and matched some sleepers in there to maximize your winnings.

The 2017 Greenbrier Classic Championship Field

As mentioned, this is not the kind of tournament that is set to blow the mind. Some of the sport’s elite are over at the Irish Open as they prepare for the British Open in two weeks time, while others are simply honing their craft away from the glare of competitive golf.

So the Greenbrier Classic has that layover type feel to it, with only four former major winners (Phil, Bubba, Jimmy Walker, and Webb Simpson) making the trip.

Si-Woo Kim and Patrick Reed have accepted their invites based on form in THE PLAYERS Championship and WGC events – the less said about Kim’s performance at the Quicken Loans the better – and the rest of the field is made up of exemptions, invites and strong performers from the FedExCup and Web.com Tour of last season.

With the most recent winners here including Danny Lee, Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter, and Scott Stallings, clearly there is an opportunity for somebody to make a name for themselves and gate-crash the Open at Royal Birkdale in a couple of weeks’ time.

This Week’s Course Preview

The team at The Old White TPC have worked wonders in restoring the course to its former glory after the floods decimated the layout 12 months ago, and reports suggest that little lasting damage has been done.

A fairly long 7,287 yards by Par 70 standards, five of the Par 4 stretches measure in excess of 450 yards and the second of the Par 5s a whopping 616 yards, so quality ball-striking will be key if scoring chances are to be made here. The course concludes at the 18th hole aptly named ‘Home,’ a devilish 175-yard Par 3 where danger lurks on three sides of the green.

These greens are larger than normal and slow too, which would suggest that the players will make light work of the course. There are elements to suggest that’s true – Stuart Appleby’s round of 59 on his way to winning in 2010, for example, although the last five winning scores of -13, -16, -13, -16, and -10 suggest a stiff enough test can be expected.

The course plays at an altitude of 1,850 feet above sea level, so course management and club selection is vital!

A post shared by The Greenbrier Classic (@gbrclassic) on Jul 2, 2017 at 2:56pm PDT

Weather Forecast for White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia

Ordinarily a trip to West Virginia is almost a guarantee of good weather, but this year a renaming to ‘Wet Virginia’ would be more appropriate.

The early forecast – and these things are always subject to change, of course – suggests that there will be plenty of rain around. Scattered thunderstorms have been predicted for Tuesday and Wednesday and then into the tournament itself too, with Thursday and Friday subject to the worst of the inclement conditions.

Saturday is set to experience cloud and showers intermittently, although – silver lining alert – Sunday is forecast, at this early stage, to be a bit better with sunny spells. Let’s hope the weathermen and ladies have gotten their predictions wrong for the week ahead.

Last Year’s Results from The Greenbrier Classic

Unfortunately, the 2016 edition of this event had to be cancelled following the devastating floods and mud slides, but a year prior to that the Greenbrier served up an enthralling conclusion.

Four men – Danny Lee, Kevin Kisner, David Hearn, and Robert Streb – made it into a playoff at -13, and after Kisner and Hearn were eliminated at the replayed 18th it was Lee who went on to claim his first PGA TOUR title after Hearn’s wayward drive saw his path to the green blocked.

Russell Henley closed with an outstanding round of 63 to sneak into the top five, while the likes of David Lingmerth, James Hahn, and the BMW International Open champion of two weeks ago, Andres Romero, helped to round out the top ten.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU2XxCvJszU[/embedyt]

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Greenbrier Classic this Week

This might look like a second-string PGA TOUR event on paper, but nobody has told the daily fantasy sites which have delivered a vibrant library of contests this week.

Here are two such contests from DraftKings that are serving up life-changing sums of money:

• PGA $3m Fantasy Golf Millionaire SuperSat: How would you spend a million bucks? That’s the top prize on offer for this Millionaire contest that coincides with the British Open – this $5 satellite will get you into the mix for a bargain price.
• PGA $30k Albatross: We love these single-entry contests: they really sort the DFS men from the boys. A top prize of $3k is on offer – just in time for The Open.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Greenbrier Classic

The key takeaway point from Danny Lee’s triumph here two years ago is that he did everything quite well and nothing spectacularly – great news for DFS ballers looking for an angle!

He simply played nicely (+1.107 SG:T2G) and putted well (+1.232 SG:P) when the pressure was on. And, of course, he negotiated that playoff better than his three opponents.

The conclusions drawn from The Old White TPC last time out is that tee game is mostly irrelevant: of the 12 players who finished T6 or better in 2015, only two gained +0.750 strokes on the field off the peg.

So clearly the second phase of holes is, yet again, most important. Eight of the first ten players home gained at least one stroke on the field from tee-to-green, as you might expect, and there were plenty of good numbers made on approach too: most of the top gaining on the field with their short irons and wedges.

Given the myriad of Par 70s of late in warm and humid conditions you would argue that current form is perhaps the best guide this week, and the transfer from the Quicken Loans to here should not be too much of a problem. Similar yardages, Bentgrass greens, both Par 70s…really, it might just be the weather that is the differentiating factor.

So take a look at any of the recent events for guidance, especially strokes gained: tee to green stats, and as far as correlating tournaments ago perhaps the Sony Open and Dean & Deluca are the best bets.

Plenty of guys have enjoyed success at Waialae (Sony) and at The Old White – Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley, and Johnson Wagner have all played well on multiple occasions at both, while there have been top tens at both Colonial and here for Danny Lee, Kevin Kisner, Sean O’Hair and Webb Simpson since 2015 alone.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Greenbrier Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Greenbrier Classic

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Kevin Kisner (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 73.0, GPFP: 83.18 Salary: $10,700)

It’s been a fantastic season for Kisner, no doubt about it. Six top-10s this term highlight just how consistent he has become, a pair of runners-up spots confirm he can contend with the best and his win at Dean & Deluca…well, that shows he possess the intestinal fortitude to get the job done.

We mentioned two correlating events earlier in this preview and Kisner’s form in those (1st at D&D, T4 at the Sony Open) is particularly eye-catching.

The elevation in Kisner’s game is clear for all to see. Other finishes such as T11 at the WGC Mexico and T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational confirm he is ready to sit at golf’s top table – not that he needs such elite prowess amongst this field.

With a second here in 2015, there is no reason why Kisner can’t take down a second title of the season here.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 9th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 55.1, GPFP: 61.29 Salary: $9,400)

His form tends to go in peaks and troughs, but right now Bradley is very much at the summit of one of his peaks.

Back to back top-tens at the Travelers Championship (T8) and the Quicken Loans National (T5) confirm the point, and it’s not just those lofty finishes that have caught the eye.

Bradley’s Strokes Gained stats have been phenomenal, and indicative of a player ready to return to the winners’ circle. He was outstanding at a tough TPC Potomac track, gaining +2.94 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, and that stands him in great stead ahead of this trip.

We expect The Old White TPC to play easier than that, but few in the field are in as good a place to take advantage of the fact as Bradley.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 20th
• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 30th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 43rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Sung Kang (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 60.1, GPFP: 75.73 Salary: $8,600)

The Korean has shown such an aptitude for getting into the mix this season that he is hard to ignore in a sparse field event, and this Old White test should be up his street.

After looking likely to go close at the Phoenix Open (T12), Houston Open (2nd), RBC Heritage (T11) and the Texas Open (T6) this term, Kang returned to form at the Quicken Loans with a T5 finish that featured +1.77 strokes gained from tee-to-green.

A decent ball-striker with an effective all round game, Kang will surely win on tour one day….but when?

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 35th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 52nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 55th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Gary Woodland (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 62.5, GPFP: 65.63 $7,500)

Is the ‘Nappy Factor’ actually a thing? Maybe, maybe not, but one thing that is for sure is that Gary Woodland is a better player in this field than sportsbook quotes of 66/1 suggests.

Welcoming a new son into the world after the premature death of the baby’s twin might just help him to kick on from being a tour nearly man (four top-fives this term) to a proven winner, and while he hasn’t played since the US Open sometimes a new arrival in the family can help to put a sense of perspective on things.

Woodland’s form has tailed off since the spring, but a player that ranks in the top 25 of tour for Greens in Regulation and SG: T2G should, theoretically, go well at the Old White.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 25th
• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 25th

Low-Tier Pick:

Stewart Cink (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.6, GPFP: 78.24 Salary: $6,900)

When the salary details are announced each week, there tends to be one or two names that scream ‘draft me’ at considerable volume.

This week it’s the turn of Stewart Cink, whose price of $6,900 is, frankly, laughable.

Sixteen cuts made in twenty starts, with nine of those generating top-25 finishes, is the sort of form delivered by players at least a $1,000 more in the pecking order; if you don’t believe us, check the listings!

Accepting the T46 finish from the US Open for what it is, Cink’s prior three performances yielded returns of 25-10-25 – valuable DFS points from our bargain play.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach-the-Green – 11th
• Greens in Regulation – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 32nd

Sleeper Pick for The Greenbrier Classic

Jason Kokrak (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 51.5, GPFP: 63.86 Salary: $8,700)

A pair of T26s in his last two starts doesn’t necessarily indicate a player in great form, but Kokrak is hitting the ball so nicely at the moment that a stronger showing should be just around the corner.

A week after topping the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats at the Travelers Championship, he followed up by gaining +2.05 on the field at the Quicken Loans; only four players outperformed him in this area.

So what does SG: T2G tell us? Simply, that a player is hitting the ball very nicely indeed. That breeds confidence, and while his putter is less hot that could click into gear at any time.

With 15 top-ten finishes to his name, Kokrak is overdue a maiden PGA TOUR title.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving: 38th
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 70th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders: 75th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Greenbrier Classic

Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 43.4, GPFP: 36.01 Salary: $7,400)

When he burst onto the scene, many were tipping Bryson to make a big impact almost immediately when he joined the professional ranks.

But things rarely turn out as predicted by these ‘experts,’ and 14 missed cuts in 22 starts this term is confirmation of that.

Just lately though there has been an upswing. After a T26 at the Travelers Championship, he followed up with T17 at the Quicken Loans where he gained +2.82 strokes on the field from tee to green; only Keegan Bradley was better in this metric. Of his last eight rounds, Bryson has fired a pair of 66s and two 67s as well.

With two top-10s to his name already on the PGA TOUR, the 23-year-old will be looking to make it a treble in West Virginia.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 7th
• Approaches from 50-75 yards – 13th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup 

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.10%” bar_text=”17 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.00%” bar_text=”44 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.52%” bar_text=”83 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”6 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”3 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.24″ bar_text=”158 out of 210 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for The Greenbrier Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram