Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – THE PLAYERS Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship Fantasy Preview

When it comes to getting your draft locked in and looking super tight, it really does make sense to put in the hard yards doing the research (or subscribing to Golficity Premium and letting us do the work for you!).  Never has that sentiment been more in evidence than at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.

Brian Harman is an excellent pro but not exactly somebody you would class as an obvious event winner; this was just his second PGA TOUR level win in his sixth full career as a pro – with just six top-10s to call upon – but we dug out some old tweets and interviews where it was mentioned that he had scouted Eagle Point GC a while ago, liked what he saw and that old chestnut had ‘suited his eye’.  The rest is history.

 
In fairness, Harman showed a tremendous amount of fortitude to win in Wilmington.  He and our top-tier pick, Jon Rahm, both had chances to win heading down the eighteenth ahead of clubhouse leader Dustin Johnson, and while the Spaniard would surprisingly only muster a par five on the last hole Harman held his nerve, bunted his third shot close(ish) before knocking home a clutch 28-foot putt to claim his first title since the John Deere Classic of 2014.

We’d earmarked Harman in our Wells Fargo Tuesday Sleeper Report, as well as the likes of Alex Noren, Patrick Reed, and Brian Gay, who all flirted with the lead or featured in the top ten throughout the week.  That good form is very handy heading into this week’s event, THE PLAYERS Championship from the majestic TPC Sawgrass.

This is the unofficial fifth major, and a quick look at the field confirms that this is an event that all the big guns want to win.  If the weather holds, a spectacular week of elite golf awaits….and coming off such a big win week, we simply cannot wait!

Last Weekend’s Fantasy Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

What a week it was at the Wells Fargo for our fantasy picks and boy were we glad to see lots of Premium Members cashing in big time!

Our Top Tier pick was John Rahm who was in contention before paring 18 when he needed an eagle to force a playoff.  Regardless, Rahm was a cheaper option than DJ by $2,000 in DraftKings and he put up 91.50 fantasy points while DJ grabbed 93.5.

As mentioned earlier, our Tuesday Sleeper Report was the real winner last week as all five sleeper picks mading the cut including the winner Brian Harman who we had high hopes for last week.  In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Harman heading into the week:

Harman is on a list of ‘scouts’ who visited Eagle Point a few weeks ago, and for a player who is rounding up to some nice form that’s a handy angle in.

His last four starts read T13-MC-T9-T14, and while we’re happy enough to overlook the last number at the team-based Zurich Classic his T9 at the RBC Heritage – played in windy South Carolina – cannot be missed.

A brilliant putter who comes alive on and around the green, if Harman performs off the tee this week he should create plenty of chances to birdie up.

Harman was a brilliant putter indeed, as he came alive with an enormous event winning putt on 18 which catapulted him to 106 fantasy points, earning DFS players enough to bank some nice coin.

As for our FanDuel picks, well, someone used our picks and mixed and matched them almost to perfection.   Take a look at the following roster.  Someone out there used our FanDuel picks in combination with our Sleeper Report picks and cruised right into a $20,000 winning weekend.

THE PLAYERS Championship Field

The field list this week reads like a who’s who of golf in 2017.  Name a top pro and you can rest assured they are in this field, with members of last season’s top 125 on the FedExCup invited alongside anybody that has won a tournament in the past year (including Justin Rose as defending Olympic champion), anyone that features in the OWGR top 50 and any winners of The Open, THE PLAYERS, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational that don’t feature in any of the above categories.  It’s mighty stacked, put it that way.

There are some interesting narratives to watch unfold as well.  Dustin Johnson, who has finished no worse than T2 in each of his last four starts, has only recorded one top-30 finish in seven starts at Sawgrass; will that run continue this week?

Jason Day equalled the course record here 12 months ago on his way to victory, and he became just the fifth wire-to-wire winner in the event’s history.  Can he recapture his best form at a track he so loves?

Sergio Garcia tees up for the first time since slipping into the Green Jacket, while Rory McIlroy will make his first bow since slipping a wedding ring on the finger of his new wife.

The likes of Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, and Henrik Stenson will be looking for a morale-boosting victory ahead of the US Open, while young pretenders such as Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Tyrell Hatton will be looking to cash in on some handy recent form to get their hands on a prestigious piece of silverware.

As non-majors go, it doesn’t get much better than this.

This Week’s Course Preview

What superlatives can be bestowed upon TPC Sawgrass that haven’t already been given?

It all began in the 1970s when then PGA TOUR commissioner Deane Beman wanted a permanent home for THE PLAYERS Championship, and Pete Dye was tasked with constructing a course with the specific aim of devising a stretch that a) didn’t favor a single style of play, and b) requires players to play a variety of shots.

From those blueprints, TPC Sawgrass was born.

After the 2016 edition of the event some changes were made, with TifEagle Bermudagrass planted on the greens to provide a sterner, quicker test of resolve, and the transformation of the 12th hole into a risk-and-reward driveable Par 4 with a new bunker and wider lake implemented.

One feature of Sawgrass that hasn’t changed is the iconic seventeenth, with its island green offering a test of intestinal fortitude as much as accurate iron game.  In 2016, some 36 players succumbed to a watery grave here.

Today, TPC Sawgrass is a 7,215 yard stretch that remains steadfast to Beman’s original vision.  Bombers have no advantage here, and instead it is those who are accurate off the tee – and can navigate their way from fairway to green in a creative and precise way, who tend to prosper.

The greens are minuscule by PGA TOUR standards, and approximately half the holes are wood or iron off the tee.  Hitting tons of dancefloors and putting well on speedy surfaces is a must this week.

Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

It’s a similar feel this week in Florida as to what has been experienced on tour for the recent past, with sunny spells, high winds and occasional thunderstorms predicted.

Thursday and Friday are set fair enough with ‘Mostly Sunny’ the reasonably optimistic forecast offered by the weathermen.  Winds of 12-16 mph will be a factor, however.

On Saturday the long range forecast is suggesting morning thunderstorms; keep an eye on this though as of course this is subject to change in the coming days.  With winds tickling 18 mph, Saturday can be christened ‘Moving Day’ for a variety of reasons.

The good news is that, for now at least, Sunday is set fair with sunny spells and the lightest winds of the week; albeit a still considerable 11 mph.

Last Year’s Results from THE PLAYERS Championship

An opening round of 63 set the tone for Jason Day 12 months ago….and he never looked back from that point onward.

He followed up with a 66 on Friday to assert his authority on the rest of the field, and at the halfway point only Francesco Molinari and Shane Lowry offered any competition despite being five and six shots back respectively.

Day stumbled at the weekend with rounds of 73 and 71, but in truth the damage had already been done with only five players – Kevin Chappell (-11) and Ken Duke, Colt Knost, Matt Kuchar and Justin Thomas (all -10) – within a handful of shots of the Aussie.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for THE PLAYERS Championship this Week

We all know that daily fantasy sites up their game for the big tournaments, and DraftKings has certainly come up with the goods this week with their varied array of contests.  But, don’t forget to check out FanDuel as well, as they’ve also thrown their hat in the ring by offering fantasy golf contests this year.

Whether you play for fun or big bucks, you will find the perfect contest for your needs this week.

• PGA $40k Albatross: The beauty of compiling a well-researched line-up is that you have the edge over less informed players, who might have a financial edge over you but not one as far as drafting a solid team goes.  So, single entry contests are where you will prosper; this one features a top prize of $4,000 for a $12 buy in.
• PGA $700K Pressure Putt: This won’t be to everyone’s tastes, but if you enjoyed a decent cash haul courtesy of our selections last week then why not reinvest them here: for a $444 stake, you could be $100k better off by the close of Sunday.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for THE PLAYERS Championship

Surprisingly given all we know about Sawgrass, Jason Day actually topped the charts for Driving Distance – which goes against everything we thought about the venue as a ‘pick and place’ kind of track.

But then the rest of the top five of that stat – Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, Brendan Steele and Sean O’Hair – finished T16, T35, T57, and T64 respectively, so perhaps that should be used a guide rather than evidence of something concrete.  The fact that Day hit 58% of fairways to go with his length helped.

The Aussie hit 72.22% of greens in regulation (T15) and ranked thirteenth for Putting Average, so the organisers of this event have stayed true to their word of presenting an all-round test of skill.

It will come as no surprise to learn that Day gained a huge amount of strokes on the field from tee to green (+2.783) and on the greens themselves (+1.455).  He played the Par 3s in +1, the Par 4s in -9 and the Par 5s in -7.

A link between THE PLAYERS Championship and RBC Heritage (Harbour Town Links) has been mentioned a few times by the players.  Harbour Town is a short track designed by Pete Dye which tests all round ball striking in windy conditions, so clearly the link is there.  Matt Kuchar has won both events, Jim Furyk has won at Harbour Town and finished second at Sawgrass, while both Kevin Kisner and Zach Johnson have finished runner up in both events.  This seems a decent angle of attack to us.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 100.9, GPFP: 87.76 Salary: $11,200)

Often it’s easy to overlook Rory McIlroy in big contests like this in favor of more ‘zeitgeist’ players such as Dustin Johnson or Hideki Matsuyama, but what the Irishman guarantees is an excellent run for your money.

He’s played in four strokeplay events this season and finished top-ten in all of them: two T4s at the WGC HSBC Champions and Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus a pair of T7s at the WGC Mexico and The Masters.

Since the latter he has gotten married, and we know that you DFS gamers love a narrative such as #NappyFactor, birthday factor etc.  In truth those are usually hokum, but what we can presume is that McIlroy is happy in his home life at the moment and that can translate to excellence out on the course.

Most pleasing is his form at TPC Sawgrass, with a string of 12-8-6-8 in the past four years which you will struggle to see equalled in terms of consistency.  That T12 last year came despite his SG: Putting stat reading -0.914; if he had putted better in conjunction with his SG: Tee-to-Green of +3.153 clearly he would have gone very close to besting Jason Day.

McIlroy played some great golf at times at Augusta in his last start, and with so many other boxes ticked this week he has to be our main pick for glory.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 70.49%
• SG: Tee-to-Green – +2.830
• SG: Total – +2.802

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Kevin Chappell (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 58.1, GPFP: 46.44 Salary: $8,500)

Chappell has had plenty of time to enjoy his win at the Texas Open, and the missed cut at the Zurich Open when he teamed up with Gary Woodland does not have to be too much of a hindrance given the nature of that event.

Instead he should focus on his brilliant showing at TPC Sawgrass 12 months ago: he gained more strokes from tee-to-green than any other player in the field (+4.358), and had his putter not been completely stone cold (-1.120) he would surely have ended that trophy drought a lot sooner.  But having won in his last strokeplay start, we can rest assured that Chappell is putting much better this time around.

The 30-year-old has a top ten at Harbour Town to his name (T9 in 2016) so that’s another tick in a box, and while typically he doesn’t hit enough fairways his ability to find an average of 67% of greens from just 59% of fairways is testament to his powers of rescue.

Again, his statistical make-up isn’t all that impressive, but this is a guy who is currently ranked 23 in the OWGR and the FedExCup, so we can ignore the numbers to a large extent this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Scoring Average – 20th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 37th
• Going for the Green – 40th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Francesco Molinari (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 69.2, GPFP: 74.07 Salary: $7,700)

Once again, Molinari was outstanding at Wells Fargo – collecting his ninth top-25 finish in eleven strokeplay starts this term.  The Italian has found consistency to go with his outstanding talent.

Francesco’s last two trips to TPC Sawgrass have yielded top-tens (T7 in 2016, T6 in 2014) and last year he hit the same number of greens in regulation as Jason Day (72.22%).  Unfortunately, and has been an age-old problem for Molinari, his putter simply did not fire.

So, given the amount of greens we expect him to hit this week, if Molinari can find any kind of form with his short stick then another strong showing at Sawgrass is very much in the offing.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 2nd
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 3rd
• Greens in Regulation – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #3:

Russell Knox (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 51.3, GPFP: 41.07  Salary: $7,600)

While the numbers don’t always stack up, Knox is one of the finest players on the planet on short courses – anything under 7,300 yards is where he comes alive.

That’s proven by his best results this season: third in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, T10 at the CIMB Classic, and T11 at Harbour Town.  It’s also easy to forget that Knox won twice on the PGA TOUR last season and finished second twice; further evidence that the Scot can get in the mix.

Accurate off the tee and a decent green hitter, Knox has all the tools to win this week and that proven championship form puts him a better place than many above him in the betting.

Coming from Inverness, the windy conditions in Florida certainly won’t faze him and could actually be the catalyst for a return to form.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 36th
• Birdie Average – 17th

Low-Tier Pick:

Branden Grace (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 62.3, GPFP: 49.82 Salary: $6,800)

When compiling a list of candidates to lift this PLAYERS’ Championship, we looked at quality ball strikers rounding up into decent form – Branden Grace almost leapt out of the page at us.

A multiple-time winner across the world and, most pertinently, the 2015 RBC Heritage champion, in his last three strokeplay events Grace has gone 27-10-11; including two rounds under par at Augusta and nigh-on back-to-back top-10s at the RBC Heritage again and the Texas Open.

Why does Grace prosper so much in windy conditions?  He’s a powerful ball-striker who graduated from the European Tour, where wind seems to be a pre-requisite most weeks. Conditions in his native South Africa have a habit of becoming quite sultry too.

Grace ranks T43 on tour for Approaches from 125-150 yards and T18 for Approaches from 150-175 yards, and that kind of ball striking will stand him in very good stead this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 18th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 33rd
• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 43rd

Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship

Adam Hadwin (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 79.0, GPFP: 100.27 Salary: $6,800)

Hadwin has no real form in this event to speak of – a best of T39 a year ago tells us that, but that was before the Canadian announced himself to world golf with a leap into the winners’ circle at the Valspar Championship.

Since that maiden victory his form has held up reasonably well: T6 at the Arnold Palmer and T22 at the RBC Heritage suggesting that Hadwin is much more than a flash in the pan.

Excellent off the tee, the 29-year-old is a brilliant putter too and boasts the all-round game to mount a serious challenge at Sawgrass.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 32nd
• SG: Total – 13th
• SG: Approach the Green – 21st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship

Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 72.8, GPFP: 58.22 Salary: $7,500)

After a fine burst on the PGA TOUR, you might have forgiven Fleetwood for resting on his laurels a bit.  But a playoff loss at the China Open a couple of weeks ago confirms that this is a man for all seasons.

He has played so little on the PGA TOUR that no stats of any meaning have been published for the folically-abundant Englishman, but how’s about this for a number from his European Tour season: he ranks first for GIR, hitting an impossibly good 84.4% of greens.

Top tens at the WGC Mexico and Arnold Palmer Invitational suggest Fleetwood is too good for the European Tour these days, and a move Stateside is imminent.  Expect him to prove his mettle this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation: 61.11%
• Driving Accuracy: 77.14%
• SG: Tee to Green: +2.310

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup I

Sample Lineup II  (Alternative: Lower priced top Tier)

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.07%” bar_text=”14 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.12%” bar_text=”34 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.13%” bar_text=”63 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”21.74%” bar_text=”5 out of 23 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”8.70%” bar_text=”2 out of 23 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”73.91″ bar_text=”119 out of 161 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for THE PLAYERS Championship with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram