Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the RBC Heritage

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2017 RBC Heritage

The RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

What a fitting way to end a marvelous tournament.  The thousands in attendance at Augusta National – and the millions watching on TV worldwide – could not have wished for more as Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose duked it out for the Green Jacket on a blissfully wind-free Sunday at The Masters.

The pair traded the lead numerous times throughout the final 18 as they went mostly unchallenged from the rest of the field; Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler’s attempts at the title running up short as the spotlight grew brighter.

We were, naturally, rooting for Rose given that he was in our draft as outlined by last week’s preview, but even so we were not too disappointed to see Garcia – one of the most talented players of his generation but yet to get over the line in a major – take the victory on the first playoff hole after fluffing a putt on the eighteenth of regulation to get the job done.

The joy for the Spaniard was obvious, and fate has a funny way of dealing out its hand.  Sunday would have been the late, great Seve Ballesteros’ sixtieth birthday.  How many more majors will Garcia win?  Only time will tell on that one.

There’s no rest for the wicked as the old saying goes, and this week the PGA TOUR moves on from the magnificence of The Masters to the altogether more serene affair at the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Links, based in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

If those involved at The Masters had just recovered from the ringing in their ears from the Augusta winds, then unfortunately they are in for a rude awakening again this week: the RBC is notorious for being one of the windiest events on the calendar, with the exposed, coastal nature of the course producing some terrific gales.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results from The Masters

Just to recap, Wednesday before the Masters at 5:45pm we notified all of our Premium Members via newsletter, our private Facebook group, and on Twitter that Dustin Johns (our Horse Pick) fell down the stairs and was ‘questionable’ to compete.  We were glad to see most of you listened and scurried to edit your rosters in risk of riding a big fat goose egg all the way into Sunday.

We opted to replace the injured DJ with Rory McIlroy T7 ($10,600/ 72.00 fantasy points) over the top-heavy Spieth ($11,500/ T11 / 71.50 FP) or Jason Day ($10,200 / T22/ 64.50 FP).  Sergio was a lucky low mid-tier pickup at $8,300 with 74 consecutive winless majors (18 years).

The biggest news coming out of Augusta was our top Mid-Tier Pick Justin Rose who almost pulled it off.  However, in his defeat he still managed to put up 99.50 fantasy points and was a ‘must-have’ on any lineup in order to win big money.

We ended up with a pretty solid sample lineup last week and we heard in from some of our Premium Members in our members-only Facebook group that some of you used that exact lineup and cashed in.  If it weren’t for Emiliano Grillo’s dismal Sunday, it could have been a lot more glorious.

 

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report also had a few gems on it with Schwartzel (3rd / 89.50 FP) and Charley Hoffman (T22 / 69.50) exhibiting strong results against their longer Vegas odds.

Bottom line is, although all seven of our picks made the cut, we failed to take a shot on Garcia and we’ll admit that he was the missing link to winning some really big money.

The 2017 RBC Heritage Field

This event takes up an unfortunate place in the schedule immediately after The Masters, and the field that gathers on an annual basis generally reflects that.  Recent winners of the RBC include Carl Pettersson, Boo Weekley, Brian Gay, and Aaron Baddeley, which gives its own insight into this tournament.

The headline-makers will be defending champion Branden Grace as well as former RBC champs Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar; fresh from his dramatic hole-in-one at Augusta on Sunday.

All in all, eight of the world’s top thirty players will make the trip to South Carolina, with the highest ranked – Tyrrell Hatton – desperate to bounce back from what was a tough initiation to life at Augusta last week.  He will be joined by fellow Brits Danny Willett, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Knox, while recent event winners D.A. Points, Adam Hadwin, Marc Leishman, and Russell Henley will be looking to double up in a weaker-than-usual field.

This Week’s Course Preview

We’re heading to South Carolina this week and the Harbour Town Links, which is celebrating its fiftieth anniversary as a PGA TOUR layout.

One of the shortest on rotation at 7,099 yards, this Par 71 stretch is a Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus design that places a premium on ball striking and distance control.  Fairways are narrow and difficult to hit, while the small Bermuda greens – a lot slower and more forgiving than Augusta’s – still require sensible planning to ensure the perfect vantage-point from which to sink your putt.

Perhaps the greatest factor is the wind, which whistles in off the coast and while there are plenty of trees lining the fairways this track is rather exposed at times.  Patience will be a virtue in South Carolina this week.

Weather Forecast for Hilton Head, South Carolina

Good news: there’s little chance of rain this week, with periods of prolonged sunshine expected to beat down on the players as they battle it out for the RBC’s Tartan Jacket.

Wind speeds look set to range from 5-10 mph, although that is perhaps a conservative estimate given that at the localized level gusts will rattle the bones of even the hardiest of spectators.

Tuesday and Wednesday are set fair too, so the greenkeepers should be able to get the course into peak condition ahead of Thursday’s opening tee.

Last Year’s Results from the RBC Heritage

Branden Grace, a prolific winner on the European and Sunshine Tours, bagged his first PGA TOUR title here 12 months ago, overcoming a three-shot deficit heading into the final round to slip into that tartan jacket with a flourish.

Five birdies on the front nine pretty much handed the South African the trophy, and cemented the third time that Luke Donald has failed to convert a 54-hole lead here.  The Englishman was bested by both Snedeker and Kuchar despite holding a solid lead heading into the final 18.

Other notable performances came from Bryson DeChambeau in at T4, confirming his undoubted talent, Kuchar, who posted his fifth top-10 at Harbour Town in his eleventh start, and messrs Hadwin, Leishman and Henley – all recent Tour winners of course – finishing top-30.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RBC Heritage this Week

After a dizzying array of contests for The Masters, DraftKings are keeping things a bit more low key for the RBC Heritage.

There’s still plenty of big bucks contests to enjoy – perfect if you’ve picked up a bounty from Augusta, while those who are looking to accumulate a tidy bankroll in time for the next major, the US Open in June, there’s no time like the present to get started.

• PGA $500K Drive the Green: Is there a more fun way to turn $3 into $100k?  Maybe, but it’s certainly not legal.  Instead choose this contest with its low buy in and huge jackpot prize.  Finish anywhere inside the top ten to earn a cool $1,000!

• PGA $300K Club Pro: Had a nice win at The Masters?  Reinvest it in this $333 beast.  For that you will take on 1000 fellow drafters for the $50k top prize, with the top 25% earning a very respectable $500 minimum.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RBC Heritage

For the players presumably the Harbour Town Links provides a welcome respite following Augusta, and even though this isn’t the easiest course in the world either at least those involved won’t spend four days chasing their tails and scrambling their way around.

The emphasis here is on clever course management and plotting every shot wisely: length isn’t a factor, but placement is.  None of the last eight champions here have finished top-20 for Driving Distance, while seven of the last eight have ranked top-20 for accuracy.  That gives you a flavor of what to expect this week.

Grace ranked T14 for GIR and T21 for Putting Average, which is surprisingly low given that nine of the first fifteen players home gained at least one shot on the field with their putter.  We’re going to maintain the theme that decent putting is vital at Harbour Town.

But with small greens, naturally Proximity to Hole and Scrambling also become key stats for the week.  Indeed, in the last nine years the player that topped the Scrambling stats here finished inside the top-10 at the very least.  Bogey Avoidance is routinely essential here as well, with winning scores ranging from -9 last year to -14 in 2012 (ignoring Furyk’s seemingly anomalous -18 in 2015).

Effective wind players are welcomed as are any Links exponents in the field – Harbour Town can be described as ‘Links lite,’ and so correlating tracks are the RSM Classic, Sony Open, and St Jude Classic, i.e. coastal, windy, short, are worthy of consideration.

Two final notes worth mentioning: in the past 33 years of the RBC Heritage, only six winners hadn’t played in The Masters the week before.  And perhaps even more noteworthy is that five of the last six champions are RBC ambassadors: Jim Furyk (x2), Snedeker, Kuchar, and Graeme McDowell.

The current list of RBC ambassadors reads: Furyk, Snedeker, Kuchar, McDowell, Graeme DeLaet, Ernie Els, Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, Ryan Palmer, and Nick Taylor.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage

Please Note: Due to the limited events played in 2017, some players have not yet accrued enough stats to qualify for an accurate GPFP.

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 68.94, GPFP: 55.15 Salary: $11,500)

We just had to draft him, didn’t we.  After his ace at the sixteenth at Augusta on Sunday, Kuch could probably float on air all the way to South Carolina such is his good feeling at the moment.

Confidence is a funny thing, and while the accusation of Kuchar that he doesn’t win enough events given his ability is fair, that doesn’t stop him accumulating stacks of points for daily fantasy gamers.

Prior to a ball being hit, is there anybody in better shape in this field than Kuch to lift the trophy?  Perhaps not, given his excellence at Augusta (he finished T4 remember) and his past record at Harbour Town.  Incredibly, he has made the cut in all eleven of his starts here, with five returning top-10s and seven top-25.

You may disagree with this selection based on his low win ratio, but we guarantee you will not find a player in this field in a better place than Kuchar to slip into the Tartan Jacket.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 9th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 19th
• Scoring Average – 38th

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Martin Kaymer (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 79.5, GPFP: 63.60 Salary: $9,500)

Kaymer served up not one but two rounds of 68 at Augusta as part of his T16 return, and if that doesn’t tell us he is striking the ball well then nothing will.

His run on Sunday was incredible; birdying every single hole of Amen Corner – and firing eight in total on the day – as he clambered up the leaderboard.  Only Kuchar and Hideki Matusyama show lower in the fourth round.

So that sets us up nicely for this week at a track that the German has only played at twice before, and both during his fallow years as a meandering pro on the PGA and European Tours.  You sense know he is in a much better place to improve upon his best return of T23 here in 2014.

Kaymer has always been an excellent tactician, and an outstanding record in Links golf bodes very nicely indeed.  His unerring accuracy off the tee will provide the platform for a title assault here.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 4th
• SG: Total – 14th
• SG: Putting – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

William McGirt (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 57.9, GPFP: 46.31 Salary: $7,900)

It’s been a decent month or so for Willie McGirt, who reached the last 16 of the WGC Match Play before a good showing at Augusta – where he was in the mix of course for the first couple of days – yielded a more-than-respectable finish of T22.

That formline is eye-catching indeed given that this is a guy who has finished T9 in this event in two of the last three years, and McGirt’s more methodical approach is well suited to these Harbour Town Links.

Carolinan by birth, McGirt also played nicely at the correlating RSM Classic earlier this year with three rounds of 67, as well as at the Sony Open in 2016 with T13.  There’s a lot going for the Memorial Tournament champion this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 6th
• Greens in Regulation – 31st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Graeme DeLaet (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 59.6, GPFP: 70.36 Salary: $7,500)

There’s that great stat regarding the RBC Heritage event and how well RBC ambassadors tend to fare here, and with Graeme DeLaet recently added to the team we have to take interest.

A talented player still seeking his maiden PGA TOUR win DeLaet will be hoping that some of that RBC magic dust rubs off on him this week.

The Canadian’s form at Harbour Town has been mixed down the years, but T14 here 12 months ago suggests he has finally gotten to grips with the course.

His formline is ‘eclectic’ with missed cuts at Bay Hill and Puerto Rico following four consecutive top-25s, but having enjoyed a few weeks off he has been able to work on his game behind closed doors while many of his rival here have been trying to keep it together at Augusta.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 15th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 16th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 25th

Low-Tier Pick:

Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 56.6, GPFP: 45.24 Salary: $6,700)

He may look like some bizarre love-child of Matt Kuchar and William McGirt, but that’s not the reason we have drafted Vaughn Taylor this week.

Taylor heads to South Carolina in good heart after a pair of T23 finishes at the Arnold Palmer and Houston Open, plus a statistical make-up that could bring Harbour Town to its knees: he ranks inside the Tour’s top 30 for Driving Accuracy, Proximity to the Hole, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance.

His course form is mixed but look back far enough and you find a T13 in 2012 and a fourth and third place finish in 2007 and 2006, so there is the merest hint of good form here.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 20th
• Proximity to Hole – 25th
• Driving Accuracy – 27th

Sleeper Pick for the RBC Heritage

Luke List (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.0, GPFP: 84.44 Salary: $7,300)

List may sleep his way to low ownership this week courtesy of no real course form to speak of, but miss out on him at your peril.

What a season Luke is having, relatively speaking.  He’s entered 15 events, made the cut in 12, finished inside the top-25 in seven and top-10 in three.  He is your classic DFS points accumulator.

As mentioned, List has but a T39 to his name at Harbour Town, but that’s from just two visits (he withdrew in 2013).  Otherwise, he looks to be a good fit for this test.

Key Stats:

• SG: Total: 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 18th
• Greens in Regulation: 33rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RBC Heritage

Cameron Smith (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 63.9, Salary: $6,900)

If the RBC Heritage is a ‘B grade’ event, then we can expect a decent showing from Cameron Smith.

His resume this term offers up T11 at Sanderson Farms, T10 at the Shriners, and T27 at the Sony Open, so windy, low quality fields are his speciality.

His sole visit to Harbour Town in 2015 yielded a T15 – very handy indeed – and his game looks ideal for this test.  Smith is by no means the longest off the tee, but he is neat and precise off the peg and comes alive in, around, and on the green.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
• SG: Putting – 45th
• Proximity to Hole – 50th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineups

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

Sample Lineup

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2016-2017)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”8.57%” bar_text=”12 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.43%” bar_text=”30 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”39.29%” bar_text=”55 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”5 out of 20 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”2 out of 20 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”72.86″ bar_text=”102 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2017 RBC Heritage with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram