Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – The Memorial Tournament

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for The Memorial Tournament

2018 Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR’s ‘strength of field’ rule change, enacted for the 2016/17 season, went that players had to add a new event to their schedule that they hadn’t played in at least four years; a change designed to aid the quality of fields in so-called ‘weaker’ tournaments.

For Justin Rose, it’s a rule change that has paid outstanding dividends.

Justin Rose of England poses with the trophy after winning the Fort…

Justin Rose of England poses with the trophy after winning the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club on May 27, 2018 in Fort Worth, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The Englishman hadn’t made the trip to Colonial CC since 2010, but yet produced an absolute masterclass in pristine ball striking at the layout to give the ‘current form enthusiasts’ the edge over the ‘course horse aficionados.’ It was Rose’s second win of the campaign, following his triumph at the WGC-HSBC Champions event, and his fifth top-ten in just eight strokeplay starts this season.

He, and the rest of the PGA TOUR, will now head to Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament; the penultimate tune-up event prior to the 2018 US Open in New York.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results 

Last week we caught some lightning with Keopka (2nd) and Grillo (3rd) as our top sleeper. Despite losing Webb to the cut line, a solid mix and match of these two guys with some strong sleepers would have put you in the money on the week; but ultimately not by much.

Justin Rose of England poses with the trophy after winning the Fort…

Justin Rose of England poses with the trophy after winning the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club on May 27, 2018 in Fort Worth, Texas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

On the European Tour our picks saw another strong finish at the BMW Championship with three players in the Top 20 including two finishing in the Top 5.

The Memorial Tournament 2018 Field

The need for a competitive warm-up outing prior to the second major of the year sees a strong field assemble at Muirfield Village, with eight of the world’s top ten and 12 of the top 15 in the FedExCup rankings all making the trip.

The newly crowned world number one, Justin Thomas, will tee it up alongside the man he dethroned, Dustin Johnson, while Jason Day will make the short trip from his Columbus home.

Tiger Woods, a five-time winner at Muirfield, will also step up his own preparations for major season this week, as will Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy, who was second in the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship this past week.

Local hero Jason Dufner will look to successfully defend his crown, while Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar will look to become two-time Memorial champions. Patrick Reed, who will look to add to his Masters victory at the US Open in two week’s time, will be looking to improve upon a so-so record at Muirfield Village.

Justin Thomas of the United States plays a shot on the second hole…

Justin Thomas of the United States plays a shot on the second hole during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 12, 2018 in Ponte Vedra Beach,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This Week’s Course Preview

Like Colonial last week, Muirfield Village is a classic layout that has been on the PGA TOUR circuit for more than four decades, and it’s a stretch which tests the ball-striking abilities of players; proving you don’t need to lengthen or tighten tracks to achieve competitive tournaments.

Measuring 7,392 yards for its Par 72, Muirfield is a Jack Nicklaus design that has an undulating, parklands feel. The fairways are of average width but the rough is left long and luscious here, so accuracy off the tee is of primary importance.

The greens, which are Bentgrass, are smaller than your average and also read pretty sharp on the stimp too, so it is fair to say that success at Muirfield hinges on a strong week of all-around golf.

Nicklaus doesn’t like his visitors to have an easy time of things, and that’s why he has peppered this layout with 77 bunkers in total, and with water in-play on eleven holes there really is no rest for the wicked here.

The toughness of the test at Muirfield Village has seen it host editions of the Ryder, Presidents and Solheim Cup, so those in attendance can expect a thorough examination of their skills in Ohio this week.

A course scenic view as storm clouds come in over the 11th hole…

A course scenic view as storm clouds come in over the 11th hole during the final round of the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide at Muirfield Village Golf Club on June 4, 2017 in Dublin,… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

Weather Forecast for Dublin, OH

The forecast for Dublin, Ohio is rather mixed this week, and the presence of thunderstorms in the predictions does not bode well.

Of course, trying to second-guess exactly when and where they will strike – and in what severity is difficult, but needless to say on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, when the storms are tipped to strike, there is likely to be significant rainfall.

On a brighter note, Saturday and Sunday seem to be set quite fair, with sunny spells and temperatures of around 77 degrees.

As far as the wind speeds are concerned it’s a similar pattern: with the squalling storms naturally the wind will pick up on Thursday and Friday, before dying down somewhat across the weekend.

Last Year’s Results from The Memorial Tournament

Jason Dufner snatched defeat from the jaws of victory – and back again – in a wholly bizarre 2017 edition of this event.

After carding a pair of opening 65s, the Duf-man was five shots clear at the halfway mark from Daniel Summerhays, six ahead of Rickie Fowler and a full eight strokes clear of the chasing pack.

But ‘moving day’ certainly lived up to its billing with a nine-shot swing between Dufner and Summerhays seeing the former shoot +5 and the latter -4. At the 54-hole stage Summerhays led by three from Matt Kuchar and four from an esteemed pack which included Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson and Dufner himself.

On a chaotic, storm-affected final day, Summerhays shot +7 to blow his chances while Fowler and Kuchar’s scores of -2 and +1 were not enough to see off the threat of that man Dufner, who rise like a phoenix after his Saturday woes to shoot 68 and wrap up the title from Fowler and the fast-finishing Anirbhan Lahiri, whose round of 65 saw him leap from outside the top-20 to T2!

Highlights | Round 4 | the Memorial

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The Memorial Tournament this Week

We’re just two weeks away from the US Open, so there’s never been a better time to top up your bankroll than this week’s Memorial Tournament. There’s a varied slate of contests to tackle, and some rather hefty cash prizes to be won.

• PGA $500k Drive the Green: The big fish this week is a $5 contest that features a top prize of a cool $100k. The first 300 players home trouser a minimum of $50.
• PGA $25k Scramble: This contest affords gamers a maximum of three entries each, with the top 25% of players doubling their money at the very least. The top prize is a handsome $2.5k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The Memorial Tournament

Occasionally the best pointers prior to making our drafts are also the most obvious, and that’s certainly the case at the Memorial Tournament.

Just look at a list of some of the players who have either won or finished second here in the past decade: Kuchar, Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Rory Sabbatini, Jim Furyk and K.J. Choi, among others.

It’s a list which tells us all we need to know: accuracy off the tee is paramount, length is not important. Hitting plenty of greens and getting hot with the putter is essential too, and with these Bentgrass surfaces running slick proximity to the hole is a stat of real importance this week too.

We can look to other Nicklaus properties too, principally Harbour Town Links, where he aided Pete Dye’s design work, and the Old White, which has played host to the Greenbrier Classic for a number of years.

The identities of the last three winners at Muirfield – Dufner, William McGirt and David Lingmerth – don’t really offer any further insight, other than the fact that ‘outsiders’ (the trio ranged from 40/1 to 400/1 in price with the sportsbooks) can have their way here even in the presence of high class company.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The Memorial Tournament

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The Memorial Tournament

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Justin Rose (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 95.4, GPFP: 76.34 Salary: $10,600)

First for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, first for SG: Approach and second for Proximity to Hole….it would be fair to say that Justin Rose enjoyed a stellar week at the Fort Worth Invitational last time out.

It’s the kind of form that should travel given that it is based upon fantastic fundamentals – the result of hours on the practice range bedding in some swing changes with coach Sean Foley.

Another remarkable stat from Colonial: Rose left himself a birdie putt from 20ft or shorter on 45 of 72 holes played, which is golf from the gods, quite frankly.

It is always hard to follow up a win with another victory just seven days later, but momentum and continuity are great assets in sport and we shouldn’t forget that the Englishman loves life at Muirfield Village.

Okay, so he hasn’t visited since 2015, but prior to that absence his formline here read 2-MC-8-8-MC-1-MC-2. So, there’s an element of ‘boom or bust’ about that, but the good times have a habit of rolling for Rose in Ohio.

And he proved after an eight-year absence at Colonial that he doesn’t take long to ‘get his eye in’ at a certain course, and so with his ball-striking of an unbelievably high standard at the moment we have to wonder if Rose is closing in on a fifth win worldwide since October 2017.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• SG: Putting – 13th
• SG: Approach – 23rd

Top-Tier Pick #2:

Marc Leishman (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 78.4, GPFP: 62.71 Salary: $9,000)

It’s a bit of a cliché when it comes to discussing Marc Leishman, but he is widely regarded as one of the most talented players in world golf.

Last time out he was finishing second in the AT&T Byron Nelson; a sixth top-10 finish of the campaign and a third in just six starts.

Eye catching is Leishman’s obvious improvement at Muirfield: from 2009 to 2017, his formline shows a clear enhancement of 58-MC-62-58-41-37-5-11-15. It’s almost an exponential improvement every time he tees up in Ohio.

With the notion that he is among the sport’s finest these days, there is no reason why the Aussie can’t improve upon that T5 best.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 9th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 15th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1:

Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 70.6, GPFP: 56.45 Salary: $7,700)

When Bryson recorded a trio of top-five finishes in four starts earlier this year, we expected him to add a second PGA TOUR title to his collection at some point.

But it didn’t quite go to plan, and he appears to have cooled off lately with finishes of T37 and T42 at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Fort Worth Invitational respectively. But six of those eight rounds were at par or better, and so it’s hard to believe his form has deserted him completely.

A player well renowned for his scientific approach to picking his way around a golf course, Muirfield should suit Bryson’s game. He isn’t always at his best on Bentgrass, but his laser-like approach play should at least present him with plenty of opportunities.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• SG: Approach-the-Green – 18th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Russell Knox (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 61.1, GPFP: 78.16 Salary: $7,300)

Knox has been speaking very positively about his game of late, and the hard work he has been putting in on the range appears to be paying dividends with back-to-back top-20 returns in the Byron Nelson and Fort Worth Invitational.

The next stage in his renaissance must be to get back into genuine contention for silverware, but we know the Scot is capable given that he is a two-time Tour winner.

As ever it is that pesky flat stick that is hampering Knox’s progress, but like so many tee-to-green specialists it will only take one or two putts to disappear for a bit of confidence to build up….that might just be the missing ingredient here.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 12th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 45th

Low-Tier Pick:

Satoshi Kodaira (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 51.6, GPFP: 41.30 Salary: $6,900)

It’s officially silly season with the sportsbooks.

How can a guy who won as recently as April on the PGA TOUR now be as long as 200/1 to win an event?

Yes, there have been two missed cuts in the interim period, but the Japanese star was outstanding at Colonial, finishing T20 and ranking fourth for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Kodaira’s outstanding approach play sees him rank inside the top-20 on Tour for Proximity to the Hole, and gamers are advised to take full advantage of this undervalued ace’s skillset this week.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to the Hole – 20th
• Driving Accuracy – 45th
• SG: Approach – 82nd

Sleeper Pick for The Memorial Tournament

Ryan Moore (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 50.50 Salary: $7,500)

Moore must love playing at Muirfield Village; why else would he have played here for more than ten consecutive years?

In that time he has amassed seven top-25 finishes with a trio of top-10s, and so it is fair to say few if any in this field know the layout as intimately as Moore.

The 35-year-old has been gaining strokes from tee-to-green since a return to form in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which he has backed up with a top-30 at the Masters, a top-20 at the RBC Heritage and a top-10 at the Texas Open.

A missed cut at the Wells Fargo halted his momentum, but a closing round of 66 at THE PLAYERS Championship confirms that he is ready to go low again at a venue he loves.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th
• SG: Approach – 34th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 41st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for The Memorial Tournament

Rory Sabbatini (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 64.7, GPFP: 68.57 Salary: $7,300)

You need a long memory to recall as such, but Rory Sabbatini is a six-time PGA TOUR winner.

The last of those came in 2011, so it has been some time since the South African felt some silverware in his hands.

He came very close at Muirfield Village in 2012, finishing second, and the signs are that he is edging closer to being in contention at the business end of tournaments once more.

Sabbatini has finished inside the top-30 in each of his last five strokeplay starts, and bookended his efforts at Colonial with rounds of 66. If he can connect four solid efforts, he may just add another long overdue trophy to his collection.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 10th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 19th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 55th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”6.88%” bar_text=”13 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”17.46%” bar_text=”33 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”37.04%” bar_text=”70 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”3.70%” bar_text=”1 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”25.92%” bar_text=”7 out of 27 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”74.07%” bar_text=”140 out of 189 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram