Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Sentry Tournament of Champions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview
The final bars of Auld Land Syne have barely rung out and already we are preparing for the 2019 PGA TOUR season.
The players have enjoyed a decent break over the festive holiday period, and in the next few weeks they will begin to crank through the gears ahead of what should be a fantastic year for the sport.
It seems like a lifetime ago when Jon Rahm took the honors in the Hero World Challenge, closing out with a final round of 65 to climb the leaderboard and usurp the likes of Tony Finau and Henrik Stenson to claim 2018’s final title.
This week’s outing, the Tournament of Champions, heads to beautiful Hawaii, where 34 event winners will line up to take home the first big paycheck of the year.
Dustin Johnson of the United States waves after putting out on the…
Dustin Johnson of the United States waves after putting out on the third green during the final round of the Hero World Challenge at Albany, Bahamas on December 02, 2018 in Nassau, Bahamas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Last Event’s Fantasy Results
Overall not a bad performance from the lineups at the Hero World Challenge and we’re happy to report that we closed out the fall season with 24 Top 25 picks and 15 Top 10s in just a handful of events finishing the 2018 calendar year.
With a wrap-around season winner in the books already and a handful of Euro wins, there’s no doubt that we’re ready for another wild PGA TOUR season on DFS.
Jon Rahm of Spain poses with the trophy and tournament host Tiger…
Jon Rahm of Spain poses with the trophy and tournament host Tiger Woods of the United States after winning the Hero World Challenge at Albany, Bahamas on December 02, 2018 in Nassau, Bahamas. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions Field
The invitational status of the Tournament of Champions is straightforward enough: win an event on the PGA TOUR in the preceding year and you will cop an invite.
Some have chosen to turn down their place – Tiger Woods, Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson the high-profile absentees, but there are still plenty of famous faces among the 34-man field to whet the appetite.
Defending champion Dustin Johnson takes the headlines, and he will be joined by major winners Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed, former T.O.C champ Justin Thomas, Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and plenty more.
Rory McIlroy of Northen Ireland plays his third shot on the 18th hole…
Rory McIlroy of Northen Ireland plays his third shot on the 18th hole during the final round of the DP World Tour at Jumeirah Golf Estates on November 18, 2018 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
This Week’s Course Preview
The Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort is incredibly unique: it is the only Par 73 on the PGA TOUR rotation.
You might think that would mean five Par 5s, but on the contrary: there’s the usual quartet of longer holes, but there’s eleven Par 4s and just a trio of Par 3s.
The other unique characteristic of the Plantation Course are the sheer elevation changes, which are significant in both directions. The seventeenth, for example, starts from on top of a mountain and winds downwards all the way to the eighteenth. The first is also severely downhill, and this trio of holes combine at more than 1,690 yards in total.
At 7,452 yards for its Par 73, you might think Plantation is a long old stretch, but in truth there are long and short holes to savor. For example, seven of the holes measure more than 500 yards, and yet six of the Par 4s are sub-400 yards.
The fairways are nice and wide, however, and of course the downward sloping holes can add plenty of distance to even the shortest of hitters. The large Bermuda greens are also receptive and run at a sluggish 10 on the stimpmeter.
It’s an easy layout – the last five winning scores have ranged from -19 to -30 – and the only real defense is the typically Hawaiian wind, which can blow up a storm from off the ocean.
A course scenic view of the 18th hole during the final round of the…
A course scenic view of the 18th hole during the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua on January 7, 2018 in Lahaina, Hawaii. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Weather Forecast for Kapalua, HI
It’s almost as if the weather gods are golf fans, as after delivering an almighty downpour on Maui in the build-up to the event, the rain should clear away in time for the start.
Those rains could be quite heavy at times from Monday through Wednesday, and the softer conditions might just favor the longer hitters.
The good news is that Thursday should dawn bright and sunny, and that theme continues throughout the weekend with temperatures of around 74 degrees.
The elephant in the room is the wind, which could blow at around 16 mph and possibly harsher at the local level. That could certainly be a factor this week!
Last Year’s Results from the Sentry Tournament of Champions
It was the perfect weekend for Dustin Johnson 12 months ago, who played the final 36 holes in an outrageous -15 to take the honors by a full eight shots from Jon Rahm.
After the second round DJ was nicely placed at -9, with Marc Leishman and Brian Harman leading the way at -10.
But the multiple-time Tour winner put on the after-burners over the weekend, leaving the field trailing in his wake as he lifted the trophy by eight from Rahm, nine from Harman and a full ten strokes from Hideki Matsuyama, Pat Perez and Rickie Fowler.
Highlights | Round 4 | Sentry
SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh In the final round of the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Dustin Johnson won in dominating fashion to earn his 17th win by 8 strokes. 2018 starts with the Sentry Tournament of Champions, contested at Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course on Maui.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sentry Tournament of Champions this Week
The DFS sites are kicking off 2019 in fine style, and so there is plenty on offer for gamers this week. Big prize pots, low variance events and lots of choice; it’s the DFS dream!
- PGA $300k Season Tee-Off: What a way to start the year: $50k richer! That’s the top prize in this 71k team event, with the top 8,400 players doubling their money at the very least.
- PGA $25k Albatross: The small field of the Tournament of Champions means that contests with multi-entry are going to be very difficult to win unless you have a huge bankroll to work with. So, how about entering this single-entry contest which boasts a top prize of $2.5k?
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
With little in the way of current form to work with, our draft will have to be a bit smarter this week.
So what are the key pointers for gamers for the Tournament of Champions? We should certainly be looking at course form as a guide; this is a unique layout after all, playing as a Par 73 and with severe elevation changes.
And to add to that, we should be looking at form in Hawaii overall, which includes the Sony Open. There’s a stiff breeze in this part of the world and heady sea air, too.
For further course correlations, look to those coastal tests: Pebble Beach, Harbour Town, Sea Island, El Camaleon and so on.
As for course fit, don’t get too wrapped up in the course distance thing. Zach Johnson is a former winner here, and 12 months ago Dustin Johnson ranked second for Driving Distance but only at an average of 296 yards. Yes, he nearly notched a hole-in-one on a 400-yard Par 4, but elsewhere there are plenty of irons off the tee to be taken.
This is one of those tracks where it’s all about the business end of holes: lots of GIR and well-hit wedges on the Par 5s, and a sublime show of putting to boot (DJ ranked first for Putting Average). Bermuda specialists are more than welcome!
As for motivation, consider those players with something to prove, who may well have been grinding out on the course while others were putting their feet up during the break.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
*This early in the season some players do not qualify enough stats to register a FPGP and GPFP.
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 11/2, FPPG: 76.8, GPFP: 136.08 Salary: $11,000)
When you think about the make-up of his game, it’s a surprise that Dustin Johnson has only twice won this event.
A two-time champion at Pebble Beach and a winner of the US Open at the similarly breezy Oakmont, DJ loves playing on the coast and has a habit of taking easy courses to the cleaners: ten of his PGA TOUR wins have come at -15 or better.
He’s a prolific champion on Bermuda too, so that’s a lot of boxes ticked.
This event can come down to motivation; who wants to get out of the blocks quickly ahead of the new year? DJ might not strike you as the most ‘eye of the tiger’ type, but he’s never finished outside the top-10 of this tournament in his last six visits, which shows that he works hard on his game over the Christmas and New Year period.
These early forays into the PGA TOUR campaign are a leap into the unknown, in some respects, but DJ is proven at starting as he means to go on.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
- Birdie Average – 1st
- SG: Approach – 5th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 105.0, GPFP: 133.35 Salary: $8,500)
His win at THE PLAYERS Championship came as something of a surprise, but Webb Simpson’s form has held up since then.
He recorded a trio of top-20 finishes in the remaining majors, including T10 at the US Open and T12 at the British Open, and finished T2 at the Wyndham Championship.
His most recent outings have been encouraging, with T6 and T4 in the final pair of FedEx Cup events, before T15 at the Shriners and solo third at the RSM Classic.
Factor in T4 at the Sony Open, and T5 in the correlating RBC Heritage, and we can see that Simpson has the form and game to shine at Kapalua (he hasn’t played here since 2014, mind).
A lover of Bermuda, if Simpson brings forward his form from the end of last season he can contend this week.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
- SG: Approach – 11th
- Birdie Average – 18th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 91.5, GPFP: 85.10 Salary: $8,200)
Reed has been grinding hard at his game of late, and that should bode well ahead of a trip to a course he routinely plays well at.
There’s a chip on his shoulder at the moment, given that he seems to be public enemy number one in US golf, and that is driving him on to get the very best from his game.
At the culmination of the FedEx Cup, Reed visited China, Dubai, Hong Kong and the Bahamas in the pursuit of keeping busy over the off-season in the US.
His performances were impressive – T2 in Dubai the standout, with rounds of 65 and 66 in the Hero World Challenge hinting at more good stuff to come.
A formline of 6-2-1 at Kapalua is as good as it gets, and once more we expect the presence of the world’s best to spur Reed on to a strong showing here.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- SG: Around-the-Green – 2nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Aaron Wise (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 99.5, GPFP: 119.40 Salary: $7,500)
The 2018 season delivered a stratospheric leap forward for Aaron Wise’s game, and he will be looking to make that pay dividends in 2019.
He is building a decent dossier of performances in these coastal tests, with T10 at the Mayakoba Classic, T13 at the RSM Classic and T15 at Pebble Beach all on the ledger.
Such consistency saw Wise make it all the way through to the TOUR Championship, where he finished T15, and this Tournament of Champions offers him an opportunity to prove that he can mix it with the big boys.
As if to emphasize his claims this week, Wise has also won at another Coore & Crenshaw layout: Trinity Forest, the new home of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 3rd
- Birdie Average – 12th
- Total Driving – 13th
Low-Tier Pick:
Patton Kizzire (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 75.1, GPFP: 92.40 Salary: $6,200)
It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, Patton Kizzire’s win in the QBE Shootout has on his year ahead.
He teamed up with Brian Harman there to take the spoils, and while the QBE is a rather low-key, good fun team event, getting your hands on a trophy can do wonders for the confidence.
Remember when Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy won the Zurich Classic last year? The latter continued to struggle with the putter, but the former kicked on with some fine performances; solo second, T3 and T3 in the TOUR Championship, BMW Championship and Northern Trust testament to that.
So can Kizzire experience a similar upswing? He played pretty well at the RSM Classic, closing out 63-66 to finish T15, and so a return to Hawaii – where he won last year’s Sony Open – should fill him with good vibes.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- Greens in Regulation – 37th
- SG: Approach – 37th
- Birdie Average – 55th
Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Marc Leishman (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 116.2, GPFP: 115.01 Salary: $7,700)
The Aussie has a habit of going under the radar in events where many of the sport’s biggest names are in tow, but he should not be ignored at a layout like Kapalua.
Leishman loves playing in the wind, as evidenced by his most recent outings: winning the CIMB Classic in the breezy Kuala Lumpur, before finishing second in his native Australian PGA Championship. A play-off loser at St Andrews and Nine Bridges, few can boast the game in the wind of Leishman.
He finished T7 here last year – the first of seven top-10s in 2018, and make no mistake the 35-year-old will be gunning for more glory in Hawaii.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- Birdie Average – 19th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 22nd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 52nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Scott Piercy (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 82.6, GPFP: 94.16 Salary: $6,700)
If we assume that form shown at the tail-end of 2018 has relevance at the start of 2019, despite the time away from competitive golf, then Scott Piercy is a lively contender this week.
T5 at the CJ Cup, T10 at the Shriners and T6 at Mayakoba were Piercy’s last three events, and happily they all prove his ability to play in the wind and in the first and last case, a happiness playing with in sea air.
It’s easy to forget Piercy is a four-time PGA TOUR winner, and at his best his iron game is as good as anybody’s out there.
Key Stats (2017-18):
- SG: Approach – 14th
- Total Driving – 26th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 42nd
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2018-2019)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for Sentry Tournament of Champions with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
