Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – TOUR Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the TOUR Championship
2018 TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview
Tee-to-green game for show, putting for dough.
That’s an old adage borrowed from the world of darts, but it’s actually something of truism when thinking about elite-level golf too; simply, you can drive and hit irons as well as you like, but if you can’t put the darn ball in the hole then you’ve got no chance of winning.
It’s an accusation you can level at numerous players on the PGA TOUR, but arguably the best example is Keegan Bradley, the 2011 PGA Champ. His game tends to go from world class to remedial whenever he sets foot on the greens, but last week at the BMW Championship….well, something changed.
Keegan Bradley lines up a putt on the 16th hole during the…
Keegan Bradley lines up a putt on the 16th hole during the weather-delayed final round of the BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club on September 10, 2018 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
Going into the penultimate FedExCup playoff event, Bradley ranked 186th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Putting. At Aronimink, nobody putted better as the 32-year-old delivered a masterclass with the flat stick to pip Justin Rose in an enthralling conclusion.
Rose could, and perhaps should, have won the contest in regulation time. In wet and soft conditions, all he needed to do was par the 18th to take the spoils, but a bogey there and another on the first extra hole was enough to end the Englishman’s chances twice in the space of an hour – although it didn’t prevent him from becoming the new world number one according to the OWGR.
Bradley, Rose and the rest of the top-30 in the FedExCup rankings move on to the 2018 season curtain call: the TOUR Championship, at East Lake GC in Atlanta, Georgia.
All 30 men can still, mathematically speaking at least, lift the trophy and be crowned FedExCup champion, and so we’re surely in for an epic conclusion to the season.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we caught some fire across the pond with our Fitzpatrick pick to win the Omega European Masters and our Top Dog for the BMW was J-Rose, who just fell short of winning the event in a playoff. With the second place finish, Justin moved to number one in the world rankings.
We head into the finale with 223 made cuts out of 294 total picks this season (7 per week).
Justin Rose of England and Keegan Bradley shake hands after Bradley…
Justin Rose of England and Keegan Bradley shake hands after Bradley won the BMW Championship on the first playoff hole at Aronimink Golf Club on September 10, 2018 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The 2018 TOUR Championship Field
At the time of writing this preview, all 30 of the players involved in the TOUR Championship were all present and counted for.
Paul Casey has problems with his back, so watch out for a possible announcement there should the Englishman want to rest up for the Ryder Cup.
And if lurid allegations in the press are to be believed, Dustin Johnson may be off building bridges with fiancée Paulina after spending too much time with a different kind of birdie.
Five men can win the FedExCup should they triumph in the TOUR Championship: Rose, DJ, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau and Justin Thomas, with various freakish results allowing anyone ranked 6-30 to get their name on the trophy should they do the business at East Lake.
Justin Rose of England plays a tee shot on the first hole during the…
Justin Rose of England plays a tee shot on the first hole during the weather-delayed final round of the BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club on September 10, 2018 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The highest profile absentee is Jordan Spieth, who finished 31st in the standings and will now miss the TOUR Championship for the first time in his career.
This Week’s Course Preview
Established in 1904, East Lake is the oldest golf course in Atlanta, but the good news is that it has had plenty of TLC in the past century.
Donald Ross – architect of Aronimink last week – served up an overhaul in 1913, and that remains the basic design to this day.
Other touches were added by George Cobb in 1963 and Rees Jones in 1994, to ensure the course remained future-proofed for the years to come.
It hosted the TOUR Championship on a rotational basis from 1998 to 2004, when it was installed as the full-time host of the event.
Two significant things happened in 2007-08: first, the FedExCup was introduced in ’07, which preceded a toughening of the course, and secondly in 2008 the greens were switched to Bermuda. It’s no secret that winning scores have diminished from -23 (Tiger Woods in ’07) to -12 (Xander Schauffele last year).
A course scenic view of East Lake during the first round of the TOUR…
A course scenic view of East Lake during the first round of the TOUR Championship, the final event of the FedExCup Playoffs, at East Lake Golf Club on September 21, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
The tree-lined, parklands layout measures 7,385 yards for its Par 70, with just two Par 5s on the whole course including the testing final hole, which offers a thorough examination of ball-striking and nerve.
The fairways, incidentally, are Zoysia grass, that unusual strain found at courses such as Bellerive, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, and Trinity Forest, the new home of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Water is in play on six holes, but the key really is approach play, with these large greens featuring different sections and shelves. Land your ball on the right part and you are in prime position to convert.
Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA
There is some rain in the forecast, although that is scheduled for Sunday-Tuesday and should not impact on proceedings too harshly.
How soft will East Lake play? We’ll have to wait and see, but it’s worth remembering that the forecast for Wednesday through to Sunday is sunny spells and temperatures around 90 degrees so there will be ample time for fairways and greens to dry out.
There will be minimal wind to speak of to, with an average of around 7 mph across the four days.
Last Year’s Results from The TOUR Championship
Xander Schauffele rubber-stamped his status as the Rookie of the Year with a barn-burning performance at East Lake 12 months ago.
The youngster belied his inexperience on the big stage to see off a host of major names and secure a rather prestigious title in his first season as a PGA TOUR pro.
Xander Schauffele smiles and tips his cap to fans after his one…
Xander Schauffele smiles and tips his cap to fans after his one stroke victory on the 18th hole green during the final round of the TOUR Championship, the last event of the FedExCup Playoffs, at East… Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images
A second round of 66 thrust him back into the mix as he lurked menacingly behind the 36-hole leaders, and a third round of 65 saw him leapfrog the pack to -10; just two shots behind the 54-hole leader Paul Casey.
Casey, as has often been the case down the years, blinked under the spotlight on Sunday, carding a 73 to fall completely out of contention.
Schauffele showed nerves of steel to birdie 15 and 17 and clinch the title by one shot from Justin Thomas, with Russell Henley and Kevin Kisner tied in third and Casey rounding out the top-five.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for The TOUR Championship this Week
There is uncertainty as to whether the DFS sites will offer a slate of contests for the Ryder Cup, and so this could be our last chance to play some major fantasy golf in 2018. As such, we’d better make the most of it!
- PGA $400k Tee-to-Green: With only 30 players in the field, it is going to be hard to build a line-up that wins a contest without sharing the spoils with other players. So, ensure you maximize your potential payout by weighing into this $4 contest, which offers a top prize of $100k!
- PGA $300k Signature Hole: Have you been slowly building your bankroll this season? If you have, what a time to re-invest it. The $555 buy-in is steep, but you’re competing against just 599 other players for the chance to win a massive $100k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for The TOUR Championship
If you look at the roll-call of recent winners of the TOUR Championship, the path to glory is clear: play typically well from tee-to-green, and have an unbelievable week with the putter.
Schauffele, McIlroy, Horschel, Snedeker….those are all guys we categorize under that heading. The anomaly – Spieth in 2015 – well, he putted well wherever he went in those days.
It really could be as simple as that, which makes predicting the winner a trifle tricky: who on earth saw Keegan Bradley ranking first for SG: Putting at the BMW Championship, for instance?
Putting remains the dark art of golf; that elusive touch seemingly coming and going in the blink of an eye.
But we have a large bank of previous Bermuda-based form to work with, and a lengthy history of TOUR Championship editions at East Lake offers further insight into who could be the ones to watch this week.
Other considerations also come to the fore. We’re always happy to look at previous performances at Donald Ross layouts as that tends to travel; think Aronimink, Sedgefield, Oak Hill and the like.
And remember, this is a Par 70 where the winning score often limps into double figures. This is a tricky layout where making par on certain holes is a necessity, with birdie looks at a premium. With just two Par 5s, there really are few ‘gimmies’ at East Lake.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The TOUR Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The TOUR Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 9/1, FPPG: 79.0, GPFP: 94.03 Salary: $10,700)
It’s hard to overlook the efforts of McIlroy at Aronimink, where he ranked first for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green.
The Irishman suffers from a case of the ‘Keegan Bradley’s’: i.e. being excellent from tee-to-green but often hapless with the flat stick in hand.
A winner at Quail Hollow, Bay Hill and East Lake, the switch to Bermuda should at least suit him, and the confidence that brings may well propel him back into the winner’s circle.
A formline of 1-16-2-10 at East Lake, as does a run of 5-12-50-6-2 worldwide in his last five starts.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 6th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 10th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 12th
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Tiger Woods (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 73.4, GPFP: 81.52 Salary: $9,500)
This is, remarkably, the first time we have drafted the Big Cat since his career renaissance in 2018.
So why the heck have we waited until the last event of the season? It’s simple: he’s getting closer to that elusive title win.
Can he hang with the big boys? You bet, as he led the British Open at one point in the final round and finished T2 at the PGA Championship.
The opportunity to keep the driver holstered will presumably appeal on these tree-lined fairways, and we always fancy Tiger on the Bermuda to go well.
It would be a fitting end to the campaign for Woods, a man reborn at the age of 42. The old romantic in us would love nothing more than to see the red-shirted legend hoist the trophy come Sunday.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 72.3, GPFP: 83.88 Salary: $7,500)
THE PLAYERS Championship winner certainly enjoys Donald Ross inspired layouts, as his T6 finish at Aronimink last week – to add to other strong efforts at Sedgefield and East Lake – attests.
His short game was in fine form at the BMW Championship, and that’s a handy ‘in’ given that his ball-striking is among the best on the planet. A ‘club down’ course off the tee also plays into his hands.
Four rounds of 67 or better at Aronimink are all the insight we need to suggest that Simpson is a live contender in Atlanta.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 4th
- Scoring Average – 5th
- SG: Approach – 22nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Billy Horschel (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 59.9, GPFP: 73.68 Salary: $7,300)
The curiosity of DFS gaming TOUR Championship style is that in a 30-man field, we can get to draft some excellent players at rock bottom prices.
And so we have Billy Horschel on board; a former winner at East Lake who has finished T3 in two of this last three starts.
The magic of the FedExCup series is not lost on the 31-year-old, who of course took the spoils in 2014, and there has been a quantifiable improvement in his game since the playoffs started.
Ranking eighth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at Aronimink, third on Approach and ninth for Putting, it’s clear that all aspects of Horschel’s game are in fine working order right now.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 18th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 31st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 37th
Low-Tier Pick:
Gary Woodland (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.9, GPFP: 77.74 Salary: $6,700)
The whole point of a season finale is that the course should test the ball-striking abilities of the players.
It’s great that East Lake isn’t merely a bomber’s paradise, and that strategic play and taking your medicine on certain holes is rewarded.
Which brings us nicely to Gary Woodland, who continues to blaze a trail in tee-to-green excellence.
What’s more, his win at the Phoenix Open earlier this year came on Bermuda, so perhaps a switch to these greens at East Lake can be that missing ingredient that takes this undoubted talent to the next level.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 6th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th
- Scoring Average – 30th
Sleeper Pick for The TOUR Championship
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 62.43 Salary: $7,000)
It will be some ask for Schauffele to retain this prestigious title: nobody has ever achieved that feat in TOUR Championship history.
But the 24-year-old still puts plenty of ticks in boxes this week. First things first, he has shown a fine aptitude for Donald Ross designs: first here 12 months ago, Schauffele was T3 at Aronimink last week too.
We’re starting to get the notion that he’s a big game player too: T5 and T6 in two US Open starts was backed by T2 at the British Open this summer.
Lastly, he’s playing some darn good golf right now. He sat T2 at the 54-hole stage of the BMW Championship, and ranked second for SG: Putting and fourth on Approach there.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 50th
- Scoring Average – 60th
- SG: Approach – 66th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The TOUR Championship
Paul Casey (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 71.2, GPFP: 81.85 Salary: $6,800)
It’s leap of faith time now as we dive off the cliff with the bad back of Paul Casey.
He was forced to miss the weekend – and Monday – at the BMW Championship, and if he is in bad shape then he is likely to rest up for the Ryder Cup.
But if he recovers sufficiently, the Englishman is an absolute steal at this price at a course he loves.
Make no mistake: he should have won the TOUR Championship 12 months ago. A two-shot lead heading into Sunday is a healthy advantage, and Casey fumbled as all around him made hay.
Not to worry, that was a third straight top-five at East Lake, and suggests that one day – maybe even this Sunday – his time will come.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 9th
- SG: Approach – 14th
- Scoring Average – 16th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2017-2018)
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